Trump Leads, Rubio Surging Ahead of Cruz in Final South Carolina Primary Polls

Donald J. Trump maintains a commanding lead while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio appears to pass Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the final South Carolina primary polls. With all but one poll taken within the past four days showing Trump with a double-digit lead (PPD Average: Trump +14.8), the fight in the Palmetto State appears to be for second place.

UPDATE: A new Augusta Chronicle Opinion Savvy Poll shows Rubio way ahead of Cruz and right on Trump’s heels: Trump: 27%; Rubio: 24%; Cruz: 19%. Caveat: It does appear to look like a bit of an outlier, but it also could be indicative of last minute momentum. If Cruz finishes behind Rubio, it’s over.

Cruz still holds a slight 18.1% to 17.1% lead over Rubio on the PPD aggregate average of South Carolina primary polls on the Republican side, but the Florida senator has now led the Texas senator in 3 of the 4 most recent surveys. The most recent was conducted by American Research Group (PPD Pollster Scorecard Rating: C-) from 2/17 to 2/18, which shows Rubio surging ahead of Cruz at just 13% with 22% of the vote.

Earlier this week, Rubio won the coveted endorsement of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a popular two-term governor. Haley, who many believed to have taken a cheap shot at the Republican frontrunner during the GOP rebuttal to President Obama’s final State of the Union address, backed Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012.

Romney ultimately went on to lose to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, but Gov. Haley is far more popular in her second term than she was in her first term. Rubio also has the backing of popular Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy, the chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi.

However, ARG has consistently found stronger support in South Carolina for Rubio juxtaposed with other polls, one of which was conducted by Emerson College (PPD Pollster Scorecard Rating: C+). Rubio barely edged out Cruz by 1-point, 19% to 18%, respectively. But that clearly represents a shift in the race, though it’s unclear whether it is enough to carry Rubio over the finish line in second place.

Donald Trump, as of Tuesday, had a 76% chance of winning the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday. Now, with little more than 24 hours before voting ends, Trump’s chances have increased to 84%. Rubio has an 8% chance of winning, while Cruz has a 6% chance, according to the PPD Election Projection Model.

The primary problem for the Texas senator is that the very “courageous conservatives” he continues to try to consolidate are voting for Donald J. Trump.