Poll: In Iowa, Trump Holds Slight Edge Over Clinton

Donald Trump holds a small 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the key Midwest battleground state of Iowa, with Hawkeye State voters viewing him more favorably. Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, leads 44% to 42% over the presumptive the Democratic Mrs. Clinton, according to the [content_tooltip id=”38870″ title=”Monmouth University”].

“It’s a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, which is marginally but disproportionately hurting Mr. Trump, and 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Two percent (2%) say they will vote for another candidate and 6% are undecided. Worth noting, Mr. Trump is leading big (51% to 35%) with voters under 50 years-old, while Mrs. Clinton has the edge with voters 50 and over, 50% to 38%.

Getting back to former New Mexico Gov. Johnson’s impact on the race, 87% of self-identified Republicans support Mr. Trump, while 6% back Mrs. Clinton, 5% Gov. Johnson and 1% Ms. Stein or another candidate. Meanwhile, among Democrats, 86% support Mrs. Clinton while 8% choose Mr. Trump, giving the Republican more of his base than the Democrat. However, only 2% back Gov. Johnson and 1% support Stein or another candidate.

Mr. Trump leads with independents 39% to 35%, while 10% chose Gov. Johnson and 4% either Ms. Stein or another candidate. Mrs. Clinton has the lead among women voters by 54% to 33%, but Mr. Trump has a similar edge among men of 56% to 29%.

Meanwhile, in the race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, incumbent Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democratic challenger Patty Judge by 10 points, 52% to 42%.

While the millions of dollars in ads attacking him over his decision not to hold hearings on Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee have hurt, his overall job approval rating makes defeating him a big challenge. Though more Iowa voters disapprove than approve of his decision not to hold Judiciary Committee hearings on Merrick Garland, he holds a 56% to 33% approval rating and has his base locked up.

Just over 9-in-10 Republicans (92%) back Sen. Grassley and over 8-in-10 Democrats (83%) support Ms. Judge. Independents go big for Sen. Grassley, 52% to 40%, and he leads among men by 66% to 30%. Ms. Judge has an advantage among women of 53% to 40%.

“Grassley’s overall job approval rating should be enough to give him the win unless Judge can make further inroads on the Garland issue,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 8 to 11, 2016 with 401 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.