Poll: Presidential, Senate Elections in Nevada Closer than “Experts” Expected

“If Donald Trump Consolidates Republicans or Peels Off a Few More Independents, Clinton is Going to Lose”

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a smaller-than-anticipated lead against Republican Donald Trump in the state of Nevada, a result that shocked Clinton supporters. A new [content_tooltip id=”38870″ title=”Monmouth University”] Mrs. Clinton holds a small 4-point lead over Mr. Trump (45% to 41%), while Republican Joe Heck leads Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2 points in the U.S. Senate race in Nevada.

“One question at this early stage is whether Clinton can hold onto the small but crucial number of Republican voters who are currently supporting her or whether Trump can win them over as well as Democrats backing Johnson,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Otherwise, this contest looks to be lining up along familiar demographic divides where turnout will determine the ultimate outcome.”

Mr. Trump has the support of self-identified Republicans (88%) but 6% back Mrs. Clinton and 2% back Libertarian and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson or another candidate. But among Democrats, 92% support Mrs. Clinton while 3% choose Mr. Trump and 3% back Gov. Johnson. However, as has been the case among independents in other battleground states and nationwide, independents back Mr. Trump 39% to 37%). Ten percent (10%) back Gov. Johnson and 8% choose “none of these candidates.”

In the race to replace outgoing Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid in the U.S. Senate, Rep. Joe Heck leads with 42% to 40% over former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. Tom Jones of the Independent American Party earns 5% and “none of these candidates” has 6%, with another 7% who are undecided.

“It would not help the Democrat if this race turns into a referendum on Reid’s leadership in Congress,” Mr. Murray said. “An early campaign theme has been the influence of special interests, but voters don’t see this as a big deal right now, partly because they don’t know a lot about the two nominees despite their years in elected office.”

Again, roughly 8-in-10 Republicans (81%) support Rep. Heck and a similar number of Democrats (83%) support AG Cortez Masto. But independents back Heck by 43% to 30%, a larger margin than they back Mr. Trump.

“The fact of the matter is the 2016 Republican nominee is polling stronger among Hispanics than his very vocal critic, the 2012 nominee. If Donald Trump consolidates Republicans or peels off a few more independent voters to form a new coalition, then Hillary Clinton is going to lose,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “The Silver State is expected to have the third largest percentage of Hispanic voters among the key battleground states and it wasn’t supposed to be this close.”

Both the presidential election and the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada are rated Toss-Ups on the PPD Election Projection Model.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 7 to 10, 2016 with 408 Nevada residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.