Monmouth Poll: Trump Widens Lead Over Clinton in Battleground Iowa

Nearly Half (48%) of Iowa Voters Under Age 50 Support Trump Compared to 33% for Clinton

Republican Donald Trump has widened his lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton to 8 points in the battleground state of Iowa, a new [content_tooltip id=”38870″] finds. Mr. Trump now leads with 45% to 37% for Mrs. Clinton, while Libertarian Party candidate Gov. Gary Johnson earns 8% and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein takes 2%. That’s up from a 2-point edge the New York Republican held over the New York Democrat in July.

“Iowa is one of the few places where Trump has been able make inroads among voting blocs that generally support Clinton,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Eighty-one (81%) of self-identified Republicans back Mr. Trump, which is down from 87% in July, while 91% of Democrats support Mrs. Clinton, an increase from 86% two months ago. However, Mr. Trump has been able to increase his overall lead by increasing his edge among independents. He now leads the former secretary of state 44% to 29% among the pivotal voting bloc, far outpacing 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney and his own 39% to 35% lead found in July.

Voters age 50 and older are almost evenly divided–42% for Mr. Trump and 41% for Mrs. Clinton–while Johnson has 6% and other candidates have 4%. In July, Mrs. Clinton led among voters age 50 and older, 50% to 38% for Mr. Trump, with 4% for Johnson and 1% for other candidates. But nearly half (48%) of Hawkeye State voters under age 50 support Mr. Trump juxtaposed to 33% for Mrs. Clinton and 10% for Johnson. Dr. Stein has just 4%.

That’s not that much of a change from two months ago, when the under 50 vote split 51% for Mr. Trump, 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for another candidate. In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Mrs. Clinton has had the advantage with the subgroup of younger voters.

Worth noting, Mr. Trump (42%) and Mrs. Clinton (43%) are statistically tied among voters with a college degree while he leads 47% to 34% among those without a college education. In July, Mrs. Clinton had a 46% to 34% edge with college graduates while Trump had a 50% to 40% lead among those without a college degree. The results are in line with the PPD U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll, which shows Mr. Trump leading by 5 points largely due to higher income, higher educated voters moving his way.

“We’re finding these traditionally Republican suburb voters are now breaking big for Donald Trump, while Hillary Clinton is sinking rapidly,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “The task for Mr. Trump was always to hold these voters in the GOP coalition while remaining attractive to the working class vote the party has struggled with in the past and been the key to his success. He’s now beginning to do that and he’s pulling away.”

Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley holds a double digit lead over Democratic challenger Patty Judge, 56% to 39%. A solid 58% approve of the job Sen. Grassley is doing and only 31% disapprove, while he holds a 50% favorable to 29% unfavorable, compared with a 46% favorable and 31% unfavorable rating in July.

Voters are more evenly divided about the challenger. Mr. Judge has a 27% favorable to 20% unfavorable rating with a whole 52% having no opinion of her, at all. Her July rating was slightly better at 30% favorable and 14% unfavorable, with 56% having no opinion.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 12 to 14, 2016 with 404 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.