Real estate market with price tags above home properties to illustrate house prices in 3D abstract. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI) wasup 0.3% in February and the previously reported 0.6% gain in January 2019 remained unchanged.
From February 2018 to February 2019, house prices were up 4.9%.
Prior
Consensus
Range
Actual
HPI M/M Δ
0.6%
0.4%
0.3% to 0.5%
0.3%
HPI Y/Y Δ
5.6%
4.9%
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from January 2019 to February 2019 ranged from -1.2%in the Middle Atlantic division to +1.4% in the East South Central division.
The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +3.5% in the West South Central division to +6.5%in the Mountain division.
The FHFA HPI is conducted monthly using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) reported earnings earlier this morning that not only included a handsome jump in bottom line EPS, but also a 6% jump in daily users to a record 134 million.
“We are taking a more proactive approach to reducing abuse and its effects on Twitter,” said Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s CEO. “We are reducing the burden on victims and, where possible, taking action before abuse is reported.”
“For example, we are now removing 2.5x more Tweets that share personal information and ~38% of abusive Tweets that are taken down every week are being proactively detected by machine learning models.”
Top line revenue in Q1 2019 increased 18% from Q1 2018 to $787 million. While this was slightly below their Q4 revenue, it ran ahead of street consensus of ~$775 million.
First quarter net income was a more significant beat, with a print of $190 million compared to $60 million from Q1 2018. This was the consecutive quarterly report where Twitter has shown bottom line profit.
“We’re delivering strong results with ad revenue up 18% year-over-year, demonstrating Twitter’s unique value proposition for advertisers as the best place to launch something new or connect with what’s happening,” said Ned Segal, Twitter’s CFO. “We’ve never been more confident in our strategy and execution and see a great opportunity to grow our audience and deliver even more value for advertisers.”
Twitter provided guidance on second quarter revenue to a range of $770 to $830 million They expect operating expenses to increase by approximately 20% in 2019, partially due to increasing their headcount by 200 employees during the first quarter to a total of 4100.
On Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom explains how you are being sold lie after lie in order to gain money and power, and to further agendas.
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Couple From Powerful Guinean Families Abused West African Migrant Minor Until Neighbors Helped Her Escape
TRAFFICKING GRAPHIC (SOURCE: ARADA PHOTOGRAPHY VIA ADOBESTOCK PHOTO)
A Guinean couple in Texas was sentenced to seven years in federal prison for forced labor and related offenses involving a then-underage immigrant minor. As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, the two were charged for activities that took place over a 16-year period.
Mohamed Toure, 58, and Denise Cros-Toure, 58, of Southlake, Texas, who are citizens of Guinea and lawful permanent residents of the U.S., were also ordered by U.S. District Court Judge Reid O’Connor to pay $288,620.24 in restitution.
The sentence was handed down after a federal jury convicted the defendants of forced labor, conspiracy to commit alien harboring, and alien harboring on January 11. The trial lasted just four days.
As a consequence of their convictions, the defendants, who are citizens of Guinea and lawful permanent residents of the United States, may lose their U.S. immigration status and be removed to Guinea pursuant to law.
On April 26, 2018, the two defendants were arrested after being charged by criminal complaint.
“I hope that today’s sentence brings some measure of justice and healing to the victim, who suffered untold trauma as a result of the defendants’ heinous crimes,” said Assistant Attorney General Eric Dreiband.
“The defendants stole her childhood and her labor for years, enriching themselves while leaving her with pain and an uncertain future.”
In January 2000, the defendants, who are members of wealthy and powerful Guinean families, arranged for the then-minor victim to travel alone from her rural village in Guinea, West Africa, to Southlake, Texas.
According to the evidence presented at trial, the victim was forced to work long hours without pay at their home for more than 16 years. The defendants forced the minor to cook, clean, and take care of their biological children, some of whom close in age to the victim.
Evidence presented at trial also established the defendants physically, emotionally, and verbally punished the young victim for disobeying or failing to perform the required labor to their satisfaction.
The defendants forced her to sleep alone in a nearby park as punishment, abused her by shaving her head and washing her outside with a hose. They called the victim a “dog,” “slave,” and “worthless,” and repeatedly hit her, including with an electrical cord.
“Forced labor trafficking cases are notoriously difficult to prosecute – in part because victims are often afraid to speak out,” said U.S. Attorney Erin Nealy Cox. “It took tremendous courage for this young woman to share her story at trial.”
The victim was denied pay, making her completely dependent on Toures for everything, and isolated her from her family and society. The defendants prevented her from receiving an education, even as their own children attended school and later college.
In August 2016, neighbors helped the victim escape. She was residing at the Toure residence on a visa that expired in March 2000.
“Today’s sentence sends a strong message to those abusing and exploiting individuals: you will be held responsible for your vicious acts,” said Jeffrey McGallicher, Special Agent in Charge of the DSS Houston Field Office. “The Diplomatic Security Service wields a global law enforcement reach, is committed to investigating these crimes wherever they occur, and remains dedicated to its partnerships in pursuing justice for the victims of human trafficking.”
On Monday, President Donald Trump issued a memorandum to crack down on expired visas.
President Trump’s Decision Aims to Strangle Iran, Reduce Oil Exports to Zero
U.S. President Donald Trump, left, speaks about tax reform on Wednesday September 27, 2017. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, speaks in a campaign rally for May 19, 2017.
President Donald Trump has decided the United States will not reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) for existing importers of Iranian oil. The move aims to reduce the nation’s oil exports to zero and targets the regime’s number one source of revenue.
“The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world’s great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied,” the White House said in a statement. “We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market.”
Even with SREs, which exempts eight nations from U.S. sanctions, the Trump Administration has reduced Iran’s oil exports to historic lows. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday the U.S. is “dramatically accelerating our pressure campaign” when SREs expire in early May.
“We stand by our allies and partners as they transition away from Iranian crude to other alternatives,” Secretary Pompeo said at a press conference.
The State Department echoed the White House on steps taken to ease the transition and limit price volatility within global markets.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently noted the U.S. became the world’s largest oil producer in 2018, and will topple Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter in 2019. By early 2019, the U.S. exported a record 3.6 million barrels per day of crude oil.
“This, in addition to increasing U.S. production, underscores our confidence that energy markets will remain well supplied,” Secretary Pompeo said.
He stated the timing of the decision was “calibrated” to meet U.S. national security objectives while “maintaining well supplied global oil markets.”
“Today’s announcement builds on the already significant successes of our pressure campaign,” he added. “We will continue to apply maximum pressure on the Iranian regime until its leaders change their destructive behavior, respect the rights of the Iranian people, and return to the negotiating table.
Stock quotes and trading stats in U.S. dollars shown closeup on a display monitor. (Photo: AdobeStock)
At the beginning of earnings season, Fact Set was projecting first quarter (Q1) 2019 earnings for the S&P 500 (^SPX) would decline -3.9% from Q1 last year. I think that will prove to be an easy marker to beat.
So far, approximately 20% of the S&P 500 has reported and I have two prescient takeaways.
First, banks have been serial under-performers for a few years, so earnings expectations have been modest, at best.
The big positive surprise was that most banks cited an improvement in net interest margins, despiteall the frothing at the mouth from the financial media over a flat, or slightly negative yield curve during Q1. Banks could be a pleasant surprise for investors in Q2 and possibly the remainder of 2019.
Second, industrials have been a bright spot for the market.
Despite Boeing Co (BA) taking over 450 points off of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) in March, the DJIA is now less than 300 points — or, close to 1% — from its all-time closing high from early September last year. Close to 40% of the companies in the DJIA will report earnings this week in what will no doubt be a Blue Chip bonanza!
One of our favorite “secret indicators” of industrial and construction activity, United Rentals (URI) reported earnings last Thursday. Investors liked it, sending URI stock +10 points, or +8% higher. United Rentals is a great proxy for big construction activity, as they rent every piece of equipment imaginable used by commercial contractors.
With every big construction, building and contracting firm in their customer base, United Rentals is a great barometer for Cap Ex spending and overall economic activity.
We will be closely watching the earnings and guidance from the big industrial companies as they begin to report this week.
Friday morning at 8:30 AM, we will get the “advance” report for Q1, GDP, and it is one of the most significant GDP reports in years. While only 6 weeks ago, most forecasts for Q1 ranged from +0.5% to +1.0%, expectations have improved dramatically over the last 6 weeks and now range from +1.6% to +2.8%.
Keep in mind that GDP for the first quarter has been habitually “light” the last 5 to 6 years with Q1 2018 settling at +2.2% after all revisions.
Four months ago, the daily debate among financial media talking heads was whether the recession would start in the first or second half of 2019. Now we’re looking at the possibility of a “print” for what is typically the weakest quarter of the year at +2.0% or better.
This would be a major victory for the U. S. economy.
Did I forget to mention we had a Government shutdown during the entire month of January?
Real estate market with price tags above home properties to illustrate house prices in 3D abstract. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Existing home sales moderated in April after surging in March, as the four major U.S. regions posted declines, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said. The big gain last month was revised down only slightly from 11.8% to 11.2%.
The Midwest saw the largest decline last month, down 7.9% from last month to an annual rate of 1.17 million. That’s 8.6% below March 2018 levels.
Prior
Revised
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR
5.510 M
5.480 M
5.300 M
5.200 M – 5.410 M
5.210 M
Existing Home Sales – M/M
11.8%
11.2%
-4.9%
Existing Home Sales – Y/Y
-1.8%
-5.4%
“It is not surprising to see a retreat after a powerful surge in sales in the prior month,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Still, current sales activity is underperforming in relation to the strength in the jobs markets. The impact of lower mortgage rates has not yet been fully realized.”
The median existing home price for all housing types in March was $259,400, an increase of 3.8% from March 2018, when it was $249,800. The latest price increase marks the 85th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.
Total housing inventory rose to 1.68 million, up from 1.63 million in February and a 2.4% increase from 1.64 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.6 months in February and up from 3.6 months in March 2018.
“Further increases in inventory are highly desirable to keep home prices in check,” Mr. Yun added. “The sustained steady gains in home sales can occur when home price appreciation grows at roughly the same pace as wage growth.”
The median price in the Midwest rose 4.6% from last year to $200,500.
March existing home sales in the Northeast fell 2.9% to an annual rate of 670,000, 1.5% below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was up 2.5% to $277,500 from March 2018.
Existing home sales in the South were down 3.4% to an annual rate of 2.28 million in March, a 2.1% drop from last year. The median price in the South was $227,400, up 2.4% year-over-year.
Existing home sales in the West fell 6.0% to an annual rate of 1.09 million in March, which is 10.7% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $389,300, up 3.1% from March 2018.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at -0.15 for March, up from the downwardly revised -0.31 in April. The improvement was led largely by employment indicators.
Prior
Revised
Actual
CFNAI
-0.29
-0.31
-0.15
3-Month Moving Average
-0.18
-0.18
-0.24
Released on 4/22/2019 8:30 AM EST for March, 2019
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to –0.24 in March from –0.18 in February. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.18 in March from –0.08 in February.
Thirty-seven (37) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 47 made negative contributions and one made a neutral contribution.
Forty-eight (48) indicators improved from February to March, while 37 indicators worsened. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.
On Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom laments the lack of backbone in leadership and how people continue to embrace socialism despite it being the source of many of our woes.
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
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Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo testifies before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. May 11, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
The State Department confirmed “several” U.S. citizens are among the more than 200 dead after explosions rocked churches and hotels in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday.
“The United States offers our deepest condolences to the families and friends of those killed and wishes a quick recovery to all who were injured,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. “While many details of the attacks are still emerging, we can confirm that several U.S. citizens were among those killed.”
Sri Lanka’s foreign ministry also said foreigners whose nationalities have been verified included three Indians, one Portuguese national, two Turkish nationals and three British nationals.
The death toll from six consecutive and two subsequent explosions has risen above 200. A police spokesperson said the 207 people died and 450 injured, which makes the attack among the bloodiest since the nation’s 26-year civil war ended a decade ago.
Defense Minister Ruwan Wijewardena said seven suspects have been arrested in connection with the attacks, which he characterized as a terrorist carried out by religious extremists.
“The U.S. Embassy is working tirelessly to provide all possible assistance to the American citizens affected by the attacks and their families,” Secretary Pompeo added. “These vile attacks are a stark reminder of why the United States remains resolved in our fight to defeat terrorism.”
“We stand with the Sri Lankan government and people as they confront violent extremism and have offered our assistance as they work to bring the perpetrators to justice.”
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