Election Betting Odds Move Against Biden Amid VP Selection and Convention
Joe Biden delivers his acceptance speech to the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
“Vegas,” using the term as a synonym to describe the seven betting odds firms aggregated by Real Clear Politics, has looked at Joe Biden’s announcement of Senator Kamala Harris, D-Calif., as his running mate, and doesn’t like what it sees.
President Donald Trump was leading Mr. Biden when the election betting odds calculation commenced in March. That might have been expected pre-COVID when the economy was roaring along. Mr. Biden took the lead on June 2, when all COVID hell broke loose — again, as might have been expected.
Mr. Biden’s lead reached its current Zenith of 24.6 points on August 1, at 61% to 36.4%. Since then, it has been a literal ski-slope downward trajectory for Mr. Biden, as the RCP graph below clearly shows. Using the haruspex methodology — and why not, it is as good as the 2016 prognosticators methods — the turning point appears to have been President Trump’s July 4 address at Mt. Rushmore.
RealClearPolitics Bettings Odds: Trump vs Biden. Screenshot taken on August 23 2020.
The president came across as singularly focused and patriotic, a stark contrast to Mr. Biden’s basement tapes. That also coincided with the president’s steady rise in polling and, more importantly, the closing of the gap between him and Mr. Biden in the battleground states.
As it stands as of this writing — and remember Vegas is fluid — Mr. Biden’s lofty 24.6-point lead has crated to just 12.4 points, the lowest since June 20. More to the point, it was 19.6% on “Kamala Day,” or August 11. It was 15.2% at the start of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Clearly, there has been no “bounce” for Mr. Biden from either his vice presidential selection or — perhaps the most worrying for his team — since the end of the convention and acceptance speech to the nation. President Trump’s odds were at their lowest point at just 36% on July 20. It now stands at 43.1%, prior to the 2020 Republican National Convention and his acceptance speech from the White House.
If he has even a decent convention, the lines in the graph may well cross again, a position Mr. Biden would not wish to be in as the real season of the election commences.
Economic Indicators for Housing Market Are Crushing Pre-Pandemic Expectations
U.S. housing market concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
New York, N.Y. (PPD) — Economic indicators widely show the U.S. housing market is “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts now foresee housing leading the economic recovery and have raised growth forecasts for the sector.
On Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales posted another record gain in July. The key housing market indicator rose 24.7% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million, surpassing the previous record set in June.
“The housing market is well past the recovery phase and is now booming with higher home sales compared to the pre-pandemic days,” Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR, said. “With the sizable shift in remote work, current homeowners are looking for larger homes and this will lead to a secondary level of demand even into 2021.”
While existing home sales for the month of June were revised down slightly by 0.5% to 20.2%, these back-to-back records far surpassed economists’ expectations and follow three straight months of declines. Existing home sales are now up 8.7% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2019).
“The number of new listings is increasing, but they are quickly taken out of the market from heavy buyer competition,” Mr. Yun added. “More homes need to be built.”
On Monday, the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 6 points to 78 in August, matching the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast.
“Housing has clearly been a bright spot during the pandemic and the sharp rebound in builder confidence over the summer has led NAHB to upgrade its forecast for single-family starts, which are now projected to show only a slight decline for 2020,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
During the period of strong economic growth under the Trump Administration, housing remained the only sector still underperforming. By the end of 2019 and start of 2020, it appeared the U.S. economy would be firing on all four cylinders.
The HMI started 2020 at a 20-year high. In January, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged just one point lower to 75 from December 2019. The two monthly readings had marked the highest sentiment levels since July of 1999.
But that was before the shutdown efforts to mitigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which only briefly shook builder confidence. The closely-watched HMI signals sustainability for the boom in the housing market. Indeed, new homes are being built at breakneck pace.
New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits skyrocketed in July, despite lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). The former gained 22.6% (±14.7%) and the latter 18.8% (±1.1%), respectively.
New home sales soared 13.8% (±17.8%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 in June, easily beating the consensus forecast. That’s the highest level for new home sales since before the Great Recession, or July 2007.
The month of May was revised up from 672,000 to a rate of 682,000. New home sales have shown little impact due to the pandemic response and are now 6.9% (±13.7%) higher than the June 2019 estimate of 726,000.
Pending home sales surged more than three times the consensus forecast by 16.6% in June, after soaring a record 44.3% in May. Year-over-year, contract signings are now up 6.3% nationally.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for July is due out next week. But as a result of the stronger-than-expected recovery and growth in the PHSI and the broader housing market, the NAR raised its forecast.
NAR: Housing Market Is Well Past the Recovery Phase and Is Now Booming, Existing Home Sales Also Far Surpass Expectations
File photo: A sold sign on an existing home. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales posted another record gain in July, gaining 24.7% and surpassing the previous record set in June. While the prior was revised down slightly by just 0.5% to 20.2%, these records far surpass economists expectations and come after three straight months of declines.
Existing home sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million in July, and are now up 8.7% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2019). Forecasts ranged from a low of 4,600,000 to a high of 5,750,000. The consensus forecast was 5,400,000.
“The housing market is well past the recovery phase and is now booming with higher home sales compared to the pre-pandemic days,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “With the sizable shift in remote work, current homeowners are looking for larger homes and this will lead to a secondary level of demand even into 2021.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in July came in at $304,100, an increase of 8.5% from July 2019 ($280,400). Home prices rose in every region. The national price gain marks 101 straight months of year-over-year gains. But for the first time ever recorded, national median home prices breached the $300,000 level.
Total housing inventory at the end of July totaled 1.50 million units, which is down 2.6% in June and 21.1% from one year ago (1.90 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 months in June and from the 4.2-month in July 2019.
“The number of new listings is increasing, but they are quickly taken out of the market from heavy buyer competition,” he said. “More homes need to be built.”
In a sign of sustainability for the boom in the housing market, new home are being built. (See Below)
Distressed sales — defined as foreclosures and short sales — represented less than 1% of sales in July. That’s down from 3% in June up from 2% in June 2019, still another sign of a strong housing market.
“Homebuyers’ eagerness to secure housing has helped rejuvenate our nation’s economy despite incredibly difficult circumstances,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, Calif. “Admittedly, we have a way to go toward full recovery, but I have faith in our communities, the real estate industry and in NAR’s 1.4 million members, and I know collectively we will continue to mount an impressive recovery.”
Regional Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales increased in every region and median home prices grew in each of the four major regions from one year ago for the second straight month.
In the Northeast, existing home sales skyrocketed 30.6% to an annual rate of 640,000, and are now down just 5.9% from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $317,800, up 4.0% from July 2019.
In the Midwest, sales soared 27.5% to an annual rate of 1,390,000, and are now up 10.3% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $244,500, an 8.0% gain from July 2019.
In the South, existing home sales shot 19.4% higher to an annual rate of 2.59 million, up 12.6% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $268,500, a 9.9% increase from a year ago.
In the West, sales also skyrocketed 30.5% to an annual rate of 1,240,000 in July, a 7.8% gain from a year ago. The median price in the West was $453,800, up 11.3% from July 2019.
Housing Primed to Lead Economic Recovery
New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits skyrocketed in July, despite lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). The former gained 22.6% (±14.7%) and the latter 18.8% (±1.1%), respectively.
On Monday, the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 6 points to 78 in August, matching the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.
New home sales soared 13.8% (±17.8%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 in June, easily beating the consensus forecast. That’s the highest level for new home sales since before the Great Recession, or July 2007.
The month of May was revised up from 672,000 to a rate of 682,000, despite the coronavirus (COVID-19) impact when most businesses and government were operating on a limited capacity or had ceased operations totally. New home sales have shown little impact due to the pandemic response and are now 6.9% (±13.7%) higher than the June 2019 estimate of 726,000.
Pending home sales surged more than three times the consensus forecast by 16.6% in June, after soaring a record 44.3% in May. As a result of the stronger-than-expected recovery and growth in housing, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) raised its forecast for the market.
Insured Unemployment Rate Fell 0.4% for Week Ending August 8
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose 125,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 1,106,000 for the week ending August 15. The previous week was upwardly revised by 8,000 from 963,000 to 971,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 875,000 to a high of 1,000,000. The consensus forecast was 963,000. Last week marked the first week after five months since the start of the pandemic in which jobless claims fell below 1,000,000.
The 4-week moving average came in at 1,175,750, down 79,000. The previous week’s average was revised higher by just 2,000 from 1,252,750 to 1,254,750.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell 0.4% to 10.2% for the week ending August 8. The previous week was unrevised.
The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment came in at 14,844,000, down 636,000. The previous week was revised down by 6,000 from 15,486,000 to 15,480,000.
The 4-week moving average was 15,841,250, a decline of 326,750. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,500 from 16,169,500 to 16,168,000.
Extended Benefits were available in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and D.C. during the week ending August 1. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for that same period fell 197,601.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 1 were in Nevada (24.2), Puerto Rico (21.7), Hawaii (19.9), California (17.0), Louisiana (15.9), New York (15.3), Connecticut (14.0), the Virgin Islands (13.8), Georgia (13.0), and Massachusetts (12.8).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 8 were in Nevada (+4,028), Puerto Rico (+3,601), Kansas (+2,248), Hawaii (+247), and South Dakota (+198), while the largest decreases were in New York (-21,366), California (-19,534), Florida (-16,702), Georgia (-11,596), and Virginia (-10,653).
The U.S. Census Bureau reported the estimate for U.S. e-commerce retail sales for the second quarter (Q2) of 2020 rose 31.8% (±1.2%) from Q1 2020. That is adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.
Total retail sales for Q2 2020 were estimated at $1,311.0 billion, down 3.9% (±0.4%) from Q1 2020. The estimate for Q2 2020 e-commerce estimate rose 44.5% (±1.9%) from Q2 2019 and total retail sales were down 3.6% (±0.5%) during the same period.
E-commerce sales in Q2 2020 accounted for 16.1% of total retail sales. On a not adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the Q2 2020 were $200.7 billion, a gain of 37.0% (±1.2%) from Q1 2020.
The Q2 2020 e-commerce estimate rose 44.4% (±1.9%) from Q2 2019 and total retail sales fell 3.4% (±0.5%) during the same period. E-commerce sales in Q2 2020 were 15.1% of total retail sales.
Graphic concept of the S&P 500 (^SPX) trading up in the green for gains. (Photo: AdobeStock)
New York, N.Y. (PPD) — The S&P 500 (^SPX) and NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closed at new record highs, recovering all the losses in the wake of coronavirus (COVID-19).
The S&P 500 closed +7.79, or +0.23% at 3,389.78, a new record high after a bear market bottomed out on March 23. The proxy for U.S. equity markets is now +55%, and well into bull market territory. It’s the fastest recovery from bear market territory in the history of the index.
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closed +81.11, or +0.73% at 11,210.84. That’s the 34th record close of the year for the index.
The The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell -0.24%, or 66.84 points to close at 27,778.07. The Russell 2000 (^RUT) also closed down at 1,569.77, or 15.70 points (-0.99%).
New Residential Construction Rebounds Strongly, Further Indicates V-Shaped Recovery
Builder confidence and residential construction, hew homes, housing starts, building permits, depicted on blueprints. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits skyrocketed in July, despite lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). Many governments and businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely.
The new residential construction statistics report below is released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,495,000 in July. That’s 18.8% (±1.1%) above the revised June rate of 1,258,000 and 9.4% (±1.5%) above the July 2019 rate of 1,366,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,200,000 to a high of 1,380,000. The consensus forecast was 1,300,000.
Single-family authorizations came in at a rate of 983,000, which is 17.0% (±1.2%) higher than the revised June figure of 840,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in July.
Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,496,000. That’s 22.6% (±14.7%) above the revised June estimate of 1,220,000 and is 23.4% (±12.4%) higher than the July 2019 rate of 1,212,000.
Single-family housing starts came in at a rate of 940,000, or 8.2% (±10.3%) higher than the revised June figure of 869,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 547,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,169,000 to a high of 1,320,000. The consensus forecast was 1,240,000.
Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,280,000. That’s 3.6% (±14.9%) higher from the revised June estimate of 1,236,000 and 1.7% (±12.8%) above the July 2019 rate of 1,258,000.
Single-family housing completions came in at a rate of 909,000, or 1.8% (±16.8%) below the revised June rate of 926,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 364,000.
There’s no consensus forecast published for housing completions.
Housing Primed to Lead Economic Recovery
On Monday, the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 6 points to 78 in August, matching the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.
New home sales soared 13.8% (±17.8%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 in June, easily beating the consensus forecast. That’s the highest level for new home sales since before the Great Recession, or July 2007.
The month of May was revised up from 672,000 to a rate of 682,000, despite the coronavirus (COVID-19) impact when most businesses and government were operating on a limited capacity or had ceased operations totally. New home sales have shown little impact due to the pandemic response and are now 6.9% (±13.7%) higher than the June 2019 estimate of 726,000.
Pending home sales surged more than three times the consensus forecast by 16.6% in June, after soaring a record 44.3% in May. As a result of the stronger-than-expected recovery and growth in housing, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) raised its forecast for the market.
HMI Matches Record for Highest Level Set in December 1998, Prospective Buyer Index Hits Highest Level Ever
Real Estate Market Going Up Concept Illustration. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 6 points to 78 in August, matching the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.
Forecasts ranged from a low 60 to a high of 75. The consensus forecast was 72, indicating the surge was far stronger than economists expected. The HMI now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, matching the record that set back in December 1998.
“The demand for new single-family homes continues to be strong, as low interest rates and a focus on the importance of housing has stoked buyer traffic to all-time highs as measured on the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “However, the V-shaped recovery for housing has produced a staggering increase for lumber prices, which have more than doubled since mid-April.”
“Such cost increases could dampen momentum in the housing market this fall, despite historically low interest rates.”
The HMI started 2020 at a 20-year high. In January, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged just one point lower to 75 from December 2019. The two monthly readings had marked the highest sentiment levels since July of 1999.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years. It measures builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”
The HMI also rates traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index. Readings over 50 indicate more builders view conditions as good than poor.
“Housing has clearly been a bright spot during the pandemic and the sharp rebound in builder confidence over the summer has led NAHB to upgrade its forecast for single-family starts, which are now projected to show only a slight decline for 2020,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Single-family construction is benefiting from low interest rates and a noticeable suburban shift in housing demand to suburbs, exurbs and rural markets as renters and buyers seek out more affordable, lower density markets.”
HMI Subindices
All the HMI subindices posted increases in the month of August. The HMI index for current sales conditions also rose 6 points to 84. The sales expectations index for the next six months gained 3 points to 78. The gauge for charting traffic of prospective buyers came in 8 points higher to reach its highest level ever measured at 65.
Regional HMI 3-Month Averages
The Northeast soared 20 points to 65 in the regional HMI three-month moving average, while the Midwest rose 13 points to 63. The South gained 12 points to 71 and the West jumped 15 points to 78.
Housing Primed to Lead Economic Recovery
New home sales soared 13.8% (±17.8%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 in June, easily beating the consensus forecast. That’s the highest level for new home sales since before the Great Recession, or July 2007.
The month of May was revised up from 672,000 to a rate of 682,000, despite the coronavirus (COVID-19) impact when most businesses and government were operating on a limited capacity or had ceased operations totally. New home sales have shown little impact due to the pandemic response and are now 6.9% (±13.7%) higher than the June 2019 estimate of 726,000.
Pending home sales surged more than three times the consensus forecast by 16.6% in June, after soaring a record 44.3% in May. As a result of the stronger-than-expected recovery and growth in housing, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) raised its forecast for the market.
A young woman consumer wearing a disposable medical mask while shopping at the supermarket during the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Ann Arbor, Mich. (PPD) — The Survey of Consumers prelim reading on consumer sentiment ticked higher from 72.5 in July to 72.8 in August, slightly beating the consensus forecast. Consumers are more pessimistic about the 5-year outlook and more optimistic about buying conditions.
Forecasts for the headline index ranged from a low of 70.6 to a high of 75.0, and the consensus forecast was 71.9.
The Current Economic Conditions Index ticked down from 82.8 in July to 82.5 in the preliminary reading for August. The Expectations Index rose 65.9 in July — tied with the six-year low recorded in May — to 66.5 in the prelim.
Kevin Clinesmith, a former lawyer for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (F.B.I.), is the first to be charged in the probe led by U.S. Attorney John Durham.
Former F.B.I. lawyer Kevin Clinesmith will plead guilty to “willfully and knowingly” making false statements to investigators in the first case brought by U.S. Attorney John Durham.
Last May 2019, Attorney General William Barr assigned the U.S. Attorney in Connecticut to investigate the origins of and potential wrongdoings in the counterintelligence investigation that morphed into a special counsel. Robert Mueller III and his team knew there were no links between Russia and the 2016 Trump campaign in August 2017, though continued the investigation.
Mr. Clinesmith, who worked both on the counterintelligence investigation and late for Mr. Mueller, was accused by the inspector general of altering an email about peripheral Trump campaign adviser Carter Page to say that he was “not a source” for a government agency. In truth, Mr. Page was a source for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The Justice Department (DOJ) submitted that and other false information as a justification for a third and final renewal application in 2017 to spy on Team Trump under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
The charging document — viewable below — states Mr. Clinesmith “did willfully and knowingly make and use a false writing and document, knowing the same to contain a materially false, fictitious, and fraudulent statement and entry in a matter before the jurisdiction of the executive branch and judicial branch of the Government of the United States.”
While not charged with doing so, the document also states he altered the June 2017 email to say Mr. Page (referred to as “Individual #1”) was “not a source” when the original email did not contain those words. It further states another official took that altered email, signed and submitted the renewed FISA application to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC).
Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz recently said he does “not have confidence” the F.B.I. is following guidelines to spy on individuals after an audit found 390 issues in 39/42 FISA applications. Section 702 allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad, created the FISC and guidelines to follow known as Woods Procedures.
Supporters of the surveillance tool and secret spy court argue there were rigorous safeguards and robust restrictions on FISA. Critics argued the court served only as a rubber stamp.
Of 1,080 requests in 2018, only one application was denied.
In December, Judge Rosemary Collyer, presiding judge of the FISC, responded to the blistering report issued by the OIG. She called the actions of the FBI “antithetical to the heightened duty of candor” owed to the court.
In January, the Justice Department admitted there was “insufficient predication to establish probable cause” to spy on Mr. Page. In response, Judge James Boasberg, the head of the FISC, penned and issued an order ruling at least two of the warrants were “not valid” on January 7, 2020.
The unlawful application submitted on April 7 was personally signed by fired former FBI director James Comey, while the unlawful application on June 29 was signed by fired former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe.
Mr. Clinesmith also participated in the interviews of George Papadopoulos, another peripheral Trump campaign advisor, and worked with now-disgraced F.B.I. agent Peter Strzok to arrange using a defensive briefing to spy on Donald Trump and his former national security advisor, Lt. General Michael Flynn.
The expected announcement comes after Attorney General Barr said in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News that there would be a “development” in the investigation. He called U.S. Durham an “independent” and “highly experienced” man, adding “if people crossed the line, if people involved in that activity violated criminal law, they will be charged.”
“There are two different things going on,” he said. “I said the American people need to know what actually happened, we need to get the story of what happened in 2016 and ’17 out. That will be done.”
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