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Index for Small Business Optimism Indicates Full-Employment, No Recession in Near-Term
A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index held strong in March, gaining slightly to 101.8. The Index indicates solid small business growth, an economy remaining at “full employment” an no signs of near-term recession.
The consensus forecast was 101.7, ranging from a low of 100.7 to a high of 105.0. The Uncertainty Index fell six points to 79, returning to a normal level following the government shutdown.
Prior
Consensus
Range
Actual
Index
101.7
101.7
100.7 to 105.0
101.8
“Small business owners continue to create jobs, expand their operations, and are enjoying strong sales,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “Since Congress resolved the shutdown, uncertainty has declined as small business owners add jobs, increase sales, and invest in their businesses and employees.”
Sixty percent (60%) of small business owners reported capital outlays, up two points and 27% plan capital outlays over the next few months.Capital outlays was led by wholesale trades (36%), manufacturing (34%), retail (33%), and transportation (32%).
In a seasonally adjusted (SA) six-point swing toward improvement, a net 5% of all small business owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months. The percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose three points to a solid net 19%.
“Owners are growing their businesses and expect that they can sell more if they can produce more with additional employees,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Investment spending has been solid for the past two years and owners are choosing to invest in their workforce as well by creating new jobs and raising wages.”
Job creation was solid in March with a net gain of 0.50 workers per firm, close to February’s record of 0.52, and up from 0.33 in January. Only 1% reported reducing employment, down 2 points to an average of 2.4 workers per firm (SA).
That’s the lowest percentage of owners reporting reductions in survey history.
However, even though 60% reported hiring or trying to hire (+3), the skills gap continues to be a major issue in the U.S. labor market. Fifty-four percent (54%)–which is 90% of those hiring or trying to hire–reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill, up 5 points.
Twenty-one percent (21%) of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem, just 4 points shy of the record high.
Unprecedented Move Marks First Time U.S. Labeled Part of Another Government a FTO
U.S. President Donald Trump, left, speaks about tax reform on Wednesday September 27, 2017. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, speaks in a campaign rally for May 19, 2017.
The Trump Administration on Monday announced the U.S. designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). It marks the first time the United States has ever named a part of another government as a FTO.
The unprecedented decision puts the IRGC on par with Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Today, I am formally announcing my Administration’s plan to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its Qods Force, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO),” President Donald Trump said in a statement, citing Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
“This unprecedented step, led by the Department of State, recognizes the reality that Iran is not only a State Sponsor of Terrorism, but that the IRGC actively participates in, finances, and promotes terrorism as a tool of statecraft.”
The IRGC, which translates to Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, is a branch of Iran’s Armed Forces that was founded after the 1979 Revolution in 1979 by order of Ayatollah Khomeini.
“This designation is a direct response to an outlaw regime and should surprise no one,”Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in the Press Briefing Room at the State Department on Monday. “The IRGC masquerades as a legitimate military organization, but none of us should be fooled.”
As opposed to the regular military–referred to as Artesh, which defends borders and maintains domestic order–the Iranian constitution, the IRGC states its role is to protect the Islamic theocracy by preventing foreign interference, military coups or “deviant movements.”
Its ranks boast 125,000 military personnel including ground, aerospace and naval forces, with the primary force being naval in the Persian Gulf. It also controls the 90,000-strong paramilitary Basij militia, and its media arm Sepah News.
The elite Quds Force, or Jerusalem Force, is estimated to be 2,000–5,000 in number. While a special operations unit tasked with handling foreign operations, it typically does not engage directly. Instead, the Quds Force has supported and relied on other terrorist organizations.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already been labelled a terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
“This action sends a clear message to Tehran that its support for terrorism has serious consequences,” President Trump added. “We will continue to increase financial pressure and raise the costs on the Iranian regime for its support of terrorist activity until it abandons its malign and outlaw behavior.”
UPDATE: Attorney General William Barr released a statement following the Trump Administration’s announcement. It is as follows:
“After the FTO designation takes effect, any person will be prohibited from knowingly providing material support or resources, as defined under the law, or attempting or conspiring to do so, to the IRGC,” Attorney General William Barr said in a statement following the announcement. “The IRGC’s active support for terrorism is unacceptable, and the Department of Justice continues to support the administration’s efforts to hold the Iranian regime accountable for its actions.”
Industry production 4.0 and technology concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. factory orders fell slightly less than the forecast in February, declining $2.6 billion or 0.5% to $497.5 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau reported new orders for manufactured goods are down four of the last five months.
The consensus forecast was -0.6%, with forecasts ranging from a low of -1.6% to a high of 0.2%.
Release Date: 4/8/2019 10:00:00 AM For February, 2019
Prior
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
Factory Orders – M/M
0.1%
-0.6%
-1.6% to 0.2%
Shipments, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.0 billion or 0.4% to $505.5 billion. This followed a 0.3% January decrease. Unfilled orders, down four of the last five months, fell $3.6 billion or 0.3% to $1,177.6 billion. This followed a 0.1% January increase.
The unfilled orders‐to‐shipments ratio was 6.54, down from 6.57 in January. Inventories, up twenty‐seven of the last twenty‐eight months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.3% to $687.8 billion. This followed a 0.5% gain in January.
The inventories‐to‐shipments ratio was 1.36, unchanged from January.
In this episode of Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom is back from Spring Break vacation and loaded for bear for the show.
“The bulk of these politician–Never Trumpers, the Democrats in Congress, people like Hillary Clinton–are corrupt. And they feel no one could get to that position of power… without being corrupt themselves.”
They’re going to castigate him so that no one like him ever runs for president again. There are many people in this country who don’t run for president because of why? Because of what happens, what happens when an average guy runs for president, or any office for that matter.”
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
American flag and U.S. dollar financial and economy concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Wage growth exceeded 3% for the eighth straight month in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. It’s the latest indicator the labor market remains strong, and backs up other positive data.
The Employment Situation, more commonly referred to as the monthly jobs report, beat expectations for the top-line employment gain. The consensus forecast was looking for 170,000, ranging from a low of 145,000 to a high of 218,000.
“The March jobs report exceeded expectations with 196,000 new jobs created,” Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta said in a statement. “Adding upward revisions of 14,000 jobs from the past two months, means that more than 5.1 million jobs have been created since January 2017.”
The consensus forecast for annual gains to average hourly earnings (wages) was 3.4%, ranging from a low of 3.1% to a high of 3.9%. Average hourly earnings (AHE) rose 4 cents to $27.70 after a 10-cent gain in February.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%. While that slightly missed the forecast, real upward wage pressure began in the fourth-quarter (Q4) 2018, and has remained solid and consistent.
“American workers are increasing their productivity, and paychecks are rising,” Secretary Acosta added. “Year-over-year wage growth was 3.2%. For eight straight months, year-over-year average hourly earnings growth eclipsed 3.0%.”
“With healthy job growth, rising wages, and low unemployment, we continue to work to increase labor force participation to fill high levels of open jobs.”
The Labor Department (DOL) Employment Cost Index reported a 3.1% increase in January 2019, marking the first time in more than a decade that wages and salaries broke 3%.
Independent analysts noted the biggest positive in this report is that there is still a significant amount of upward pressure on wages.
“While there was understandably some nervousness following the significant ‘miss’ last month, and the shortfall from the ADP private sector report on Wednesday, markets will take this as a very reassuring report,” Tim Anderson, market analyst at TJM Investments said.
“There’s more room for wages to grow.”
The Survey of Consumers also showed significant acceleration for consumer sentiment in March, rising to 98.4 to beat the high end of the forecast range. But the gain for the month was fueled by increased optimism among working Americans.
Mr. Curtain noted historical data on expected income gains (chart below) do not indicate an emerging recession.
“Middle and lower income households more frequently reported income gains than last month, although income gains were still widespread among upper income households,” Richard Curtain, the chief economist for the Survey of Consumers said. “Indeed, the last time a larger proportion of households reported income gains was in 1966.”
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell another 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ending March 30, the lowest level since December 6, 1969. That day weekly jobless claims came in at 202,000, as well.
The consensus forecast was 216,000, ranging from a low of 215,000 to a high of 222,000.
The week of December 6, 1969, had been cited as the benchmark low in previous weekly jobless reports under this administration–here, here and here–but it was the first time it mirrored the 202,000.
The 4-week moving average fell by 4,000 to just 213,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending March 23, while the advance number for insured unemployment (SA) declined by 38,000 during the week ending March 23 to 1,717,000.
An American flag flying behind barbed wire at the U.S. southern border with Mexico. (Photo: AdobeStock)
President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday he wants to “go in a tougher direction” on the nomination for Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The Associated Press reported Thursday the White House had withdrawn the nomination of ICE Deputy Director Ron Vitiello.
The deputy director was expected to travel with President Trump to Calexico, California, where he will hold a roundtable discussion with law enforcement officials and visit parts of the border wall.
Heading to the Southern Border to show a section of the new Wall being built! Leaving now!
Initially, an official at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in response to the report that it appeared to be a clerical error. But on Friday President Trump confirmed that he decided to nominate someone else.
The nomination requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate. Mr. Vitiello cleared one of the two necessary committees, though he will remain deputy director of ICE.
Officials said last week the U.S. will apprehend more than 100,000 illegal border-crossers in the month of March, a 12-year high. The Trump Administration has stressed the situation is a crisis. The president declared a national emergency, calling the situation “an invasion.”
Democrats have called it a “fake” or “manufactured” crisis.
A new survey released Friday finds more than two-thirds (67%) of the electorate said illegal immigration is a serious problem in America.
Last week, the president threatened to close the U.S. southern border with Mexico if they did not do more to intercept illegal caravans, hold system-gaming asylum applicants, and take a series of steps to stem the flow.
On Thursday, he issued a “one-year warning” and threatened to impose automobile tariffs.
The Crazed and Dishonest Washington Post again purposely got it wrong. Mexico, for the first time in decades, is meaningfully apprehending illegals at THEIR Southern Border, before the long march up to the U.S. This is great and the way it should be. The big flow will stop…….
….However, if for any reason Mexico stops apprehending and bringing the illegals back to where they came from, the U.S. will be forced to Tariff at 25% all cars made in Mexico and shipped over the Border to us. If that doesn’t work, which it will, I will close the Border…….
….This will supersede USMCA. Likewise I am looking at an economic penalty for the 500 Billion Dollars in illegal DRUGS that are shipped and smuggled through Mexico and across our Southern Border. Over 100,00 Americans die each year, sooo many families destroyed!
….This will supersede USMCA. Likewise I am looking at an economic penalty for the 500 Billion Dollars in illegal DRUGS that are shipped and smuggled through Mexico and across our Southern Border. Over 100,00 Americans die each year, sooo many families destroyed!
“I never changed my mind,” the president said on Friday. “I may shut it down at some point, but I’d rather do tariffs.”
A near-majority (48%) supports suspending foreign aid to Mexico and other governments in Central America that refuse to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S., though the partisan divide is deep.
“Mexico, I have to say, has been very very good over the last four days,” he added. “If they continue that everything will be fine. if they don’t we’re going to tariff cars at 25 percent coming into the United States.”
Near Majority (48%) Supports Cutting Foreign Aid to Mexico, Central America Until It Stops
A graphic concept of barbed-wire, chain-linked fencing at the U.S. southern border with a sign reading, “Stop Illegal Immigration.” (Photo: AdobeStock/Thea Photography)
More than two-thirds (67%) of the electorate think illegal immigration is a serious a problem in America today, a new poll finds. That includes 47% who say it is “very serious” and 20% who say it is “somewhat serious.”
The Rasmussen Reports national phone and online survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted April 2-3, 2019, as officials warn the crisis at the southern border has reached critical mass.
The partisan divide is deep, as only 48% of Democrats overall agree with 69% of non-affiliated voters and 87% of Republicans. Men (68%) and women (66%) are in agreement .
Similarly, only 28% of Democrats agree with 72% of Republicans and 43% of non-affiliated voters that illegal immigration is a “serious” problem. Another 20% of Democrats say it is “somewhat” serious, while another 15% of Republicans and 26% non-affiliated voters chose “somewhat.”
The results do find what could be a messaging deficit.
Only 31% say most Democrats in Congress want to slow or stop illegal immigration, while 70% say the same about Republicans.
A near-majority (48%) supports suspending foreign aid to Mexico and other governments in Central America that refuse to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S., a threat leveled by President Donald Trump this week.
That includes 71% of Republicans, 47% of non-affiliated voters, but only 29% of Democrats. Men (51%) are also slightly more likely than women (46%) to support the plan.
Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The U.S. economy created 196,000 jobs in March, beating forecasts, unemployment held steady and wages grew above 3% for the eight consecutive month.
The consensus forecast was looking for 170,000, ranging from a low of 145,000 to a high of 218,000.
“While there was understandably some nervousness following the significant ‘miss’ last month, and the shortfall from the ADP private sector report on Wednesday, markets will take this as a very reassuring report,” Tim Anderson, market analyst at TJM Investments said.
Prior
Revised
Consensus
Range
Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M
20,000
33,000
170,000
145,000 – 218,000
196,000
Unemployment Rate
3.8%
3.8%
3.8% – 3.9%
3.8%
Private Payrolls – M/M
25,000
28,000
168,000
140,000 – 173,000
182,000
Manufacturing Payrolls – M/M
4,000
1,000
10,000
5,000 – 12,000
-6,000
Participation Rate
63.2%%
63.0
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M
0.4%
0.2%
0.0% – 0.4%
0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings – Y/Y
3.4%
3.4%
3.1% – 3.9%
3.2%
Av Workweek – All
34.4
34.5
34.4 – 34.5
34.5
The ADP National Employment Report showed weakness in the goods-producing sector for the month.
Construction employment in the government jobs report this month rose 16,000) in March and has increased by 246,000 over the past 12 months.
The labor force participation rate ticked down only slightly to 63.0%, but has largely held the gains at 63 over the past 12 months. The employment-population ratio was 60.6% and has been either 60.6% or 60.7% since October 2018.
The consensus forecast for wages was 3.4%, ranging from a low of 3.1% to a high of 3.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents to $27.70 after a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%.
It’s the eight straight month wages (AEHs) have been above 3% over the 12-month period. Even more positive in this report, wages have room to continue to grow.
“We continue to see growth in Average Hourly Earnings, and the participation rate is holding the gains of the last 6 to 8 months at 63.0%,” Mr. Anderson added. “While there were modest job losses in retail, -12,000, and manufacturing, -6000, the performance of retail stocks year-to-date is telling us that sector is much healthier than it has been in the last 2 years.”
“Likewise, the resurgence of the U.S. manufacturing sector over the last 18 months is unlikely to reverse, over a marginal decline from one report.”
U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Initial jobless claims fell another 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ending March 30, the lowest level since December 6, 1969. That day weekly jobless claims came in at 202,000, as well.
The consensus forecast was 216,000, ranging from a low of 215,000 to a high of 222,000. This week had been cited as the benchmark low in previous reports under this administration–here, here and here–but this is the first time it mirrored the 202,000.
The 4-week moving average was 213,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,250 to 217,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very and history low 1.2% for the week ending March 23. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment declined by 38,000 during the week ending March 23 to 1,717,000.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending March 16.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 16 were in Alaska (3.0), New Jersey (2.6), Connecticut (2.5), Rhode Island (2.5), Montana (2.4), California (2.3), Pennsylvania (2.3), Illinois (2.2), Massachusetts (2.2), and Minnesota (2.0).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 23 were in Texas (+2,802), Arkansas (+821), Maryland (+330), Missouri (+324), and New Mexico (+160), while the largest decreases were in California (-1,296), Pennsylvania (-1,181), Oklahoma (-1,097), Wisconsin (-583), and Ohio (-468).
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