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On Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom discusses the growing double standard on the issue of free speech and how it will eventually lead to tyranny.
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New residential construction, hew homes, housing starts, building permits, depicted on blueprints. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) found builder confidence steady at 62 in March.
The consensus forecast was calling for 63, with forecasts ranging from a low of 60 to a high of 66.
“Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn.
The HMI component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose 3 points to 71, while the index for current sales conditions rose 2 points to 68.
“In a healthy sign for the housing market, more builders are saying that lower price points are selling well, and this was reflected in the government’s new home sales report released last week,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Increased inventory of affordably priced homes – in markets where government policies support such construction – will enable more entry-level buyers to enter the market.”
Affordability and a lack of skilled labor remain key concerns for homebuilders. They also cited a shortage of buildable lots and stiff zoning restrictions in many major metro markets among the challenges they face.
The component of prospective buyer traffic fell 4 points to 44. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a 5-point increase to 48, the South was up 3 points to 66 and West rose 2 points to 69. The Midwest showed a marginal 1-point decline to 51.
About the Housing Market Index (HMI)
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Democratic Party nomination intra-party fight concept as two mountain cliffs each shaped as a donkey clash head to head damaging the party as a 3D illustration. (Photo: AdobeStock)
“Bernie Sanders signals he is looking for a younger, female running mate”
Well of course he is. Such is the astonishing bind the Democratic Party has got itself into in pursuit of the intersectionality it has arbitrarily imposed on itself. First, it must be noted that the “younger” requirement is obvious if Sanders, at age 77 is referring to himself.
Unless he was originally contemplating asking Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 85, to be his running mate.
Ginsburg would seem to be eminently qualified by the liberal “rules of engagement.” But in reality, the liberal rules would also preclude two white people of Jewish descent. On the other hand, Sanders/Harris or Sanders/Gabbard would be progressive nirvana.
In the old days, more often than not, splicing together a party ticket was simply a matter of geography. Nominate an easterner for president, then pick a vice presidential nominee who hails from the southwestern (JFK/LBJ). A Midwest liberal would nominate a southern conservative (Stevenson/Sparkman), and so on. The Clinton/Gore ticket, which paired two southerners, was a rare exception.
But with Hillary haven broken the glass ceiling, and by the new nature of things having chosen a male as her running mate, the Democrats’ interlocking possibilities are astounding.
Remember, they’ve done this to themselves.
This is by no means an exhaustive–though it is exhausting–first glance at the various possibilities.
Imagine Kamala Harris prevails but can’t choose Tulsi Gabbard as her running mate, as two women of color (and East Indian to boot) would be precluded. If Gabbard somehow got the nod, she couldn’t pick Harris.
If Elizabeth Warren emerges victorious, she couldn’t pick either Gillibrand or Klobuchar, as two white women would cause a major uproar, especially since they are both straight. Neither could Warren choose either Harris or Gabbard, as again, a two-women team would be “unbalanced” according to the Dem’s strictures even if there were a suitable coloradmixture.
Hickenlooper and Inslee–being boring, middle-aged white men–probably have no chance whatsoever. But in the unlikely event a stalled convention turned to a “dark horse,” any combination of the two would be the worst choice of all.
Cory Booker, a black male; Pete Buttigieg, a gay young white male; and, Julian Castro, a Hispanic, seem very well-placed for a VP slot as they appear acceptable in any two male combo. Admittedly, neither make for the supreme party combination, but are close enough.
As partner to a female presidential nominee, any of them would be near perfect save for Booker paired with either Harris or Gabbard.
Now that O’Rourke has announced, if Biden gets in the game the choices would require a supercomputer to spit out the various combinations based on the overriding necessities of race/color gender/gender fluidity/gender preference balance/age and–since the Constitution requires it–a nod to geographic balance.
That the Democrats have got themselves into this frankly ludicrous state of affairs is in itself another factor as to why their ticket, in whatever final permutation is cobbled together, deserves to be rejected.
Key with business words and rig equipment graphic icons relative to the oil and gas industry. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/JEGAS RA)
The Baker Hughes Rig Count for North America was down 29 for the week ending March 15, as Canada continues to drag down the United States (US).
The U.S. rig count declined by just 1 to 1026, but remains 36 rigs higher than the previous year. A new study finds the U.S. will overcome Saudi Arabia in 2019 as the world’s top oil exporter.
Rigs classified as drilling for oil in the U.S. declined by just 1 rig to 833, but are still 33 rigs more than the prior year’s level. Rigs classified as drilling for gas were flat at 193, which is 4 more than last year.
For Canada, rigs classified as drilling for oil fell another 20 to 98, and are now 46 fewer than one year ago. Rigs classified as drilling for gas were down by 8 to 63, which is 12 less than last year.
The Gulf of Mexico, while a subset of the U.S., is a separately counted component. It held steady at 22, up 9 rigs from one year ago.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count tracks weekly changes in the number of active rigs classified as drilling for either oil or gas. Active rigs are essential for the exploration and development of oil and gas fields.
Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) JOLTS reported the number of job openings continued to rise to 7.6 million on the last business day of January. The results came in above the high end of the forecast range.
The consensus forecast was just 7.2 million, with forecasts ranging from a low of 6.9 million to a high of 7.34 million.
Over the month, hires ticked a bit higher while separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3% and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1%.
This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.
The release also includes 2018 annual estimates for hires and separations. The annual number of hires at 68.9 million and the annual number of quits at 40.1 million increased in 2018. The annual number of layoffs and discharges at 21.9 million edged up in 2018.
The job openings rate ticked up from 4.7% last month to 4.8%. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and increased for government (+59,000).
Job openings increased in a number of industries, with the largest increases in wholesale trade (+91,000), real estate and rental and leasing (+60,000), and information (+41,000).
The job openings level decreased in other services (-98,000), retail trade (-97,000), and arts entertainment, and recreation (-40,000).
The number of hires was 5.8 million in January and the hires rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%. The number of total separations was little changed at 5.6 million in January and the total separations rate was little unchanged at 3.7%.
However, the report does continue to highlight the skills gap, which People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) has repeatedly hammered over the last two years.
Under the previous administration, the top issue for employers was the tax and regulatory environment. Now, it’s finding qualified workers.
On the year, job openings are up a whopping 21.7%, but hires are only up 4.2%.
President Ronald Reagan waving to well-wishers on the south lawn of the White House on April 25, 1986. (Photo: Reuters)
The darling of the New Left, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, stepped in it again last week with comments at the South by Southwest (better known as Left by More Left) festival in Austin. She claimed “Reaganism in the 1980s” pitted the white working-class against brown and black working Americans to (somehow) “screw over all working-class Americans”.
Then, she launched into a criticism of Reagan’s term “welfare queen.”
One small problem: Under Ronald Reagan, all Americans improved financially. Unemployment fell across the board. Wages rose. Most of all, inflation—and last time I looked, it affected “working-class” black, brown, and white people more than any other group—plummeted.
Had Ocasio-Cortez done the least bit of reading in her economic program at Boston University, she would know that Ronald Reagan was probably the least racist president we’ve ever had. Unlike Lyndon Johnson, he didn’t make comments about how he would have black people voting for the next hundred years.
Unlike Bill Clinton, he didn’t make jokes about how not many years ago Barack Obama would be serving himself and Jesse Jackson dinner. Unlike FDR, he didn’t allow segregation in the armed services.
Indeed, the Ronald Reagan I discovered in my multi-year study of The Gipper, mostly in his Presidential papers in the Reagan Library, was just how un-racist the man really was.
As a teenager, when black members of his high school football team were denied lodging at a hotel, Reagan took them to his house. As a budding actor, when he learned that the country club he belonged to excluded Jews, he quit. As President, he made exceptional (for the time) outreach to black Americans, forming a variety of task forces to include them in policy making.
The Gipper learned early on from his father, Jack—a Catholic—that if discrimination was practiced against one group, it would very soon turn to others.
But everyone knew this about Dutch. In 1984, activist Muhammed Ali switched his support from Jesse Jackson to Ronald Reagan for president. That same year, blues legend Ray Charles endorsed Reagan and appeared at the Republican National Convention. The hardest working man in show business, James Brown, called Reagan “the Smartest President Ever.” Journalist Tony Brown praised Reagan, and Reagan spoke on his show glowingly of black colleges.
Even former Black Panther Eldridge Cleaver endorsed Reagan.
For most, Reagan’s actions spoke louder than typical politicians’ platitudes about race relations. But when it came to the “welfare queens,” as Charles Murray showed in his pathbreaking book Losing Ground, Reagan was absolutely right.
The system was indeed stacked with incentives to not work, to break up marriages, or to not get married in the first place. A cursory look at family breakup since Aid to Families with Dependent Children was passed under the Great Society shows that Reagan was right on the money.
Illegitimacy soared, and as a result, crime skyrocketed with it. Meanwhile, the amount of money poured into welfare programs rose—and continued rising under Reagan (one of his more important failures).
Under Reagan, inflation-adjusted median cash income of blacks rose a stunning 12%; while under Barack Obama, the median income of black households fell 2.2%. Black unemployment was sliced by more than 3% under Dutch.
But because of his steadfast campaign to end inflation, the dollars black workers took home were worth still more. The Gipper, along with Paul Volcker, took a courageous stand against the disease of inflation and whipped it—and not with a silly button as Gerald Ford used.
If a criticism of Reagan is to be made vis-a-vis black Americans, it is that he designed and pushed the Simpson-Mazzoli Act since 1981, which few scholars have addressed. Indeed, Reagan was not “fooled” into signing amnesty—he had created the poicy and sold it to Congress.
Amnesty held down wages of black Americans—and all Americans—even more than they would have been. Without amnesty, it’s quite likely wages would have risen even further. Reagan’s economic policies were just that good!
For real racists, Ocasio-Cortez might try the Democratic Party, the Party of the Ku Klux Klan, the party whose “Dixiecrats” blocked civil rights legislation, and the party whose big-spending policies generated inflation that nearly destroyed the lives of all Americans.
All Americans should be grateful that Ronald Reagan’s economy was color blind, as was his character.
Trend Reverses, as Sentiment for Households in Bottom Two-Thirds Distribution Gain
Sale, consumerism and people concept – happy family with child and shopping cart buying food at grocery store or supermarket. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Syda Productions)
The preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for March came in above the consensus forecast at 97.8, up from 95.2 in February. The gain was driven by rising optimism among working families.
The latest results represent a complete reversal as the prior bounce in sentiment was driven by households at the top of the income distribution.
“The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90.0 in February,” Richard Curtain, Chief Economist for the Survey of Consumers said.
“Sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February.”
Current Economic Conditions rose from 108.5 in February to 111.2 in March, while the Index of Consumer Expectations rose from 84.4 to 89.2.
The data indicate that real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and that the expansion will set a new record length by mid year.
Next data release: Friday, March 29, 2019 for Final March data at 10am ET
The difference that accounted for the divergence was how households evaluated their personal finances, as lower income households expressed much more positive assessments. The divergence was due to a monthly jump of one-percentage point in income expectations among middle and lower incomes compared to a change of just one-tenth of a percentage point among those with incomes in the top third. Rising income expectations were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations (see the chart). Moreover, all income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy during the year ahead. Since households with incomes in the top third account for more than half of all consumer expenditures, cautious observers will conclude that the latest data are another indication that the end of the expansion is on the distant horizon. While that may well be true, the current level of consumer sentiment at 97.8 hardly indicates an emerging downturn; even among households with incomes in the top third, the Sentiment Index is 98.5, and 97.4 in the bottom two-thirds.
Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background – Texas. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Since Francis “Beto” O’Rourke changed his mind and announced he is running for president, media pundits have speculated he at least could put Texas in play as a vice presidential candidate.
For the purpose of this article, we’ll stick to the prospect of him being the 2020 vice presidential nominee for two reasons.
That claim has denominated conversation among prognosticators, the reason being even more important.
Democrats are not bullish on his chances of winning the nomination. But they absolutely hope a Beto candidacy will generate enough excitement to put the state in play, particularly if he is ultimately chosen to be the vice presidential nominee.
The best case to be made for a vice president’s “home team” advantage is by far the 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon.
Then-Senator Lyndon B. Johnson appeared at the top of the ticket as the Democratic nominee for vice president. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. was the nominee for vice president on the Republican ticket.
As far as the popular vote, it was a very close race on the presidential level both nationwide and in the two deciding states–Illinois and Texas. Nationally, the Democratic Kennedy/Johnson ticket garnered 49.72%, while the Nixon/Lodge ticket won 49.55%.
Like Beto, LBJ lost his first bid for U.S. Senate in Texas. In the 1941 special election, he fell short with 30.26% of the vote against Wilbert Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel, who took 30.49%.
It was a feeling of defeat he would not soon forget, nor would he ever allow himself to repeat.
In 1948, he initially came in second in the first round of voting in the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. In the runoff election, he overcame what was a 20,000 vote deficit to defeat former Governor Coke Stevenson by 87 votes.
Sound familiar?
In the book, ”Means of Ascent,” study author Robert A. Caro details how ballot fraud was rather common, but said the Johnson campaign took it to “a new level” in 1948.
In the general election, LBJ bludgeoned Jack Porter, his Republican opponent. He garnered 702,985 votes, or 66.22%, compared to 349,665 votes, or 32.94% for Mr. Porter.
In 1954, LBJ beat Carlos G. Watson by an even bigger margin, 84.59% to 14.93%. There were third party candidates on the ballot in each of his elections, as was often the case.
Before we move on to 1960, it’s worth noting that Beto O’Rourke has none of these accomplishments under his belt, and home team advantages are almost always built over time and after a succession of victories. Even still, they do not transfer vote-for-vote.
In 1960, Lyndon Johnson’s name was on the ballot twice, for U.S. Senate and as the vice presidential candidate under JFK. He won his Senate race by the smallest margin ever despite his status, with 57.98% of the vote compared to 41.12% for Republican John Tower.
Yet, despite the still significant double-digit win, the margin of victory for the JFK/LBJ ticket in Texas was just 0.2%. Kennedy/Johnson garnered 34,220,984 votes, or 49.7%. Nixon/Lodge earned 34,108,157, or 49.5%.
While we hear about “home team” advantages every four years, even the strongest of cases suggests a reverse coattails effect, meaning the presence of JFK on the ticket could’ve actually hurt then-Senator Johnson.
In closing, I’ll simply repeat the obvious. Beto O’Rourke has none of LBJ’s electoral accomplishments. According to Texas Secretary of State David Whitley, he undoubtedly benefited from some 58,000 illegal residents casting ballots.
So, the argument LBJ’s electoral success can be attributed to fraud only holds weight as it pertains to 1948. He just beat his opponents badly, and earned a loyal majority following.
Beto has no built-in home team advantage outside of perhaps his own congressional district. Even if he did, it certainly would not transfer vote-for-vote.
Voters, particular swing voters, still largely have a partisan lean. Those leans are stronger when they case votes for candidates at the top of the ticket juxtaposed to down-ballot.
In 2018, swing suburban white voters were largely responsible for how close Beto came to upsetting Republican Senator Ted Cruz. If history is any indicator, it is not at all likely to be the case in 2020.
Industry production 4.0 and technology concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Industrial production edged higher 0.1% in February after declining 0.4% in January, a rebound that missed the consensus forecast.
The consensus forecast was 0.4%, with forecasts ranging from a low of 0.0% to a high of 1.1%. Interestingly, the gain was fueled by utilities and manufacturing did not make the expected rebound forecasts indicated.
The consensus forecast for manufacturing was also 0.4%, with forecasts ranging from a low of 0.1% to a high of 0.5%.
Manufacturing production fell 0.4% in February for its second consecutive monthly decline, while the utilities index jumped 3.7%. The index for mining edged higher 0.3%.
Nevertheless, at 109.7% of its 2012 average, total industrial production was still 3.5% higher in February than it was a year earlier.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1% in February to 78.2%, a rate that is 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
The consensus forecast for capacity utilization was 78.5, with forecasts ranging from a low of 78.0 to a high of 79.
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