New residential construction, hew homes, housing starts, building permits, depicted on blueprints. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Wildfires in California fueled a sharp decline in new residential construction last month, but housing starts and building permits bounced backed in January.
Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,230,000. That’s a gain of 18.6% from the revised December estimate of 1,037,000, but 7.8% below the January 2018 rate of 1,334,000.
The consensus was 1,170,000, ranging from a low of 1,100,000 to a high of 1,237,000.
Single‐family housing starts in January came in at a rate of 926,000, or 25.1% above the revised December figure of 740,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 289,000.
Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,345,000. That is 1.4% higher than the revised December rate of 1,326,000, but 1.5% below the January 2018 rate of 1,366,000.
The consensus was 1,287,000, ranging from a low of 1,220,000 to a high of 1,352,000.
Single‐family authorizations in January came in at a rate of 812,000, 2.1% below the revised December figure of 829,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 482,000 in January.
Housing Completions
Privately‐owned housing completions in January rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,244,000.
This is 27.6% higher than the revised December estimate of 975,000 and is 2.1% above the January 2018 rate of 1,218,000.
Single‐family housing completions in January were at a rate of 914,000; this is 30.2% above the revised December rate of 702,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 327,000.
Wages Have Risen By 3% or Higher for 7 Consecutive Months
Man reading newspaper with the headline Job Market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The February jobs report was a big miss, as total nonfarm payrolls increased by just 20,000, though the unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 3.8%. While the headline number for job creation was the weakest since Barack Obama’s final year in office, there were strong positives in February.
The consensus forecast was 175,000, ranging from a low of 130,000 to a high of 200,000.
There are some positives in the jobs report, including positive revisions to December and January. For December, the total jobs created was revised higher from +222,000 to +227,000, and January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000.
But the big positive is the gain in wages, which have now risen by 3% or above for 7 consecutive months.
Average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4%, beating the 3.3% consensus forecast.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 8 cents to $23.18 in February.
“Aside from the headline number, this is a solid report for wages that gained +0.11. That brings them to +3.4 year-over-year and the labor participation rate held steady at 63.2 after the recent gains,” Wall Street analyst Tim Anderson at TJM Investments, said.
The employment-population ratio, at 60.7%, was also unchanged in February. But the gauge has risen 0.3% over the year.
“Further, rather than a downside revision to a big January number, it was revised higher by +7000,” He added. “What could have easily been a -75,000 to -100,000 revision likely added to the shortfall in February instead.”
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million. The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs–including people on temporary layoff–fell by 225,000.
That at least in part is the result return of federal workers who were furloughed in January due to the partial government shutdown.
Manufacturing employment was +4,000 and has increased by an average of 22,000 per month over the prior 12 months. Construction lost 31,000 in February–likely an offset from the big increase of 53,000 in January–and has added 223,000 jobs over the year.
The Employment Situation, commonly referred to as the monthly government jobs report, follows the release of the ADP National Employment Report. The payroll processor said earlier this week U.S. private sector employment increased by 183,000 jobs in February, beating out the consensus forecast.
For January, the total number of jobs added was revised up 87,000 from 213,000 to 300,000.
SSE Composite Index
(^SSE), the Shanghai Composite Stock Exchange. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
The Chinese stock market has had a great run the last 6 weeks, with multiple +1% gains, even as U. S. markets have recently stalled. Last night, was a reality check as the SSE Composite Index (^SSE) had its largest decline this year, dropping -4.5%.
Again, trade is front and center, as fresh media reports overnight are tapping down expectations for a bullish conclusion to the U. S. – China trade negotiations.
Specifically, media reports suggest infighting between senior Chinese communist party hardliners and President Xi over concessions on issues critical to the U. S. trade talks. Stay Tuned.
On the economic front, we get the February nonfarm payroll and employment report from BLS at 8:30 am this morning. It is certain to receive much attention, particularly in light of the large beat from the prior 2 reports, the big revision to December last month, and the stellar private sector report from ADP 2 days ago.
The ADP report Wednesday was wrongly headlined as a “miss” by more than 1 financial media outlet. What they, and many others “missed” was the +85K January revision included in the February ADP report.
This is an extraordinarily large revising for an ADP report since they source primarily “hard data” in their their front month reports.
All that being said, consensus for the BLS report this morning is a gain of +185K, although the Average Hourly Earnings and Labor Participation components may be the most telling internals.
Also, Keep in mind that the January report ran +150K ahead of consensus, in what was likely a “noisy” report due to technical aspects of the government shutdown. A downside revision to January would not be unexpected. Even a revision of -50K would would still leave us with a beat of +100K for January.
Stock quotes and trading stats in U.S. dollars shown closeup on a display monitor. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The downward drift by stocks earlier this week accelerated on Thursday as lowered growth forecasts for Europe added to angst over U. S.-China trade talks and technical selling at major resistance levels.
Market Averages turned lower to start the week. after hitting reaction highs on the first day of the month. The reversal from the Monday morning rally has raised the caution flag for buyers after nearly a non-stop rally had pushed major Market Averages higher during the first two months of the year.
Headlines the last 2 days have been an additional headwind for investors, already leery that the rally was ahead of itself.
On Wednesday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams highlighted the “new normal” of slower economic growth for the U.S. economy during comments at the New York Economic Club.
On the trade front, enthusiasm for the U.S.-China trade talks has waned a bit, over concern that markets had built in to rosy a final outcome following President Trump’s rebuke at the summit with North Korea the prior week.
While the market reaction has been nowhere near the relentless rout experienced during the downward price action in December, it’s still the most meaningful pullback so far this year.
Here’s where we stand 5 trading days into the month:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) at 25,473 has declined -1.7% during the five trading days in March, and is +9.2% YTD. The DJIA remains +1.4% above its 200 day moving average of 25,126, but posted its lowest close since February 14.
The S&P 500 at 2748.93 has started the month of March with a -1.3% decline, while still sporting a YTD gain of +9.6%. Thursday, the S&P 500 (^SPX) settled less than 2 points below its 200 day moving average of 2750.81. Like the DJIA, this was the lowest close for the S&P 500 since February 14.
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) at 7421.46 is lower by -1.5% five days into the month. The NASDAQ still has a gain of +12% YTD, although it did close just less than 1% below its 200 day moving average of 7480.
Very similar to the DJIA and the S&P 500, today was the lowest close for the NASDAQ composite since February 12.
The Russell 2000 (^RUT) has clearly been the high beta Index since posting it’s all time high on August 31 of last year. While The Russell at 1523.60 has declined -3.3% the first five trading days in March, it remains +13% YTD.
Where the Russell just barely eked out a couple closes above its 200 day moving average during the recent market highs, it’s now at a -4% deficit to that benchmark of 1586.20.
We’d really like to see the Russell 2000 hold the 1500 level on any further weakness. As a point of reference, the 50 day moving average lies just below that at 1483.
My sense is that this pullback will stabilize by mid-month as investors look to log a solid first quarter (Q1) as well as continue to position themselves for the remainder of 2019.
Speaker Pelosi Now Claims Rep. Omar Didn’t Understand the “Full Weight” of Her Words
In this June 9, 2017 House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington. Democratic Party divisions are on stark display after a disappointing special election loss in a hard-fought Georgia congressional race. (Photo: AP)
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., backpedaled from her rebuke of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s remarks, which she and her top lieutenants condemned as anti-Semitic.
As a press conference on Thursday, Speaker Pelosi caved to pressure from the growing dissent among the leftwing base, claiming Rep. Omar wasn’t “intentionally anti-Semitic” and didn’t understand the “full weight,” or meaning of her words.
House Democrats have been struggling to bring a resolution “rejecting anti-Semitism” to the floor for a vote, a measure that was meant to be a response to controversial remarks by Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., about Israel.
Leadership intended to bring the resolution to the floor of the U.S. House on Wednesday. But the party couldn’t muster enough votes to pass it without the help of Republicans, even after caving to leftwing demands to include “anti-Muslim bias” language to the resolution.
Rep. Omar tweeted, among many other things, that pro-Israel members of the U.S. Congress have dual loyalties. Jonathan Greenblatt, the CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, noted the accusation of dual loyalties has “long been a vile anti-Semitic slur.”
The freshmen lawmaker, who just two months ago was given an assignment on the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee, will not be relieved of the post.
Eleven Jewish groups sent a letter to Speaker Pelosi and Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y, who chairs the committee, requesting she be removed from the committee for posting what they call “ugly, anti-Semitic attacks on Jews and their organizations.”
House Democratic leadership have resisted those calls, terrified a move such as that would upset the base of the party, which they hope to keep energized for the 2020 presidential election cycle.
Only three weeks ago, Speaker Pelosi and her top lieutenants publicly condemned Rep. Omar’s previous remarks as anti-Semitic.
“Anti-Semitism must be called out, confronted and condemned whenever it is encountered, without exception,” Speaker Pelosi and her lieutenants said in their initial statement, acknowledging “legitimate criticism of Israel’s policies is protected by the values of free speech.”
“But Congresswoman Omar’s use of anti-Semitic tropes and prejudicial accusations about Israel’s supporters is deeply offensive,” the statement added. “We condemn these remarks and we call upon Congresswoman Omar to immediately apologize for these hurtful comments.”
Now, her tone has changed, telling reporters at the press conference on Thursday she will not ask Rep. Omar to apologize and the resolution still doesn’t mention her specifically.
Speaker Pelosi walked out of a meeting on Wednesday with Democratic House members, who were in full revolt over the resolution condemning anti-Semitism.
“Well if you’re not going to listen to me, I’m done talking,” she before setting down her microphone, and leaving the room.
While elements of anti-Semitism have existed on both sides of the aisle, it has been a longstanding and now growing problem with the left at home and abroad.
Anti-Semitism is tearing apart the Labour Party in the United Kingdom (U.K.), which recently reported a 16% increase in anti-Semitic incidents last year alone. Seven Members of Parliament (MPs) quit the party in February, specifically naming the rise of money politics and anti-Semitic sentiment.
Rep. Omar and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., became the first Muslim women sworn into Congress in January. That was just 60 days ago, and to date both have either made or posted comments critics have called anti-Semitic.
The record of bigotry toward Jews is not only a recent one.
In 2012, Rep. Omar tweeted that “Israel has hypnotized the world, may Allah awaken the people and help them see the evil doings of Israel”
In 2013, Rep. Omar blamed terrorism on U.S. “involvement in other people’s affairs” during a radio interview with Ahmed Tharwat. The host previously compared the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas to Holocaust victims, and referred to Israel as the “Jewish ISIS.”
During her first day on the job, Rep. Omar aligned herself with Linda Sarsour, a radical Islamist who has vehemently defended Rasmea Odeh, a terrorist convicted of murdering two Jews, as well as Louis Farrakhan, who has compared Jews to pigs and termites.
Yet, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., defended Rep. Omar and equated her experience as a Muslim refugee to Holocaust survivors.
“I’m serious about that. There are people who tell me, ‘Well, my parents are Holocaust survivors.’ ‘My parents did this.’ It’s more personal with her,” Rep. Clyburn told The Hill. “I’ve talked to her, and I can tell you she is living through a lot of pain.”
Labor Productivity and Costs See Solid Upward Revisions to Previous Q4 2018 Estimates
A collage graphic concept for industry and labor. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity rose 1.9% in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2018 and unit labor costs rose 2.0%, the Labor Department said Thursday.
The consensus forecast for labor productivity was 1.6%, ranging from a low of 1.0% to a high of 2.0%. The consensus forecast for labor costs was 1.8%, ranging from a low of 1.2% to a high of 2.2%.
For labor productivity, output increased 3.1% and hours worked increased 1.2%. From Q4 2017 to Q4 2018, productivity rose 1.8% reflecting a 3.7% gain in output and a 1.9% gain in hours worked.
Annual average productivity rose 1.3% from 2017 to 2018.
Manufacturing sector labor productivity rose 2.0% in Q4 2018, as output gained 2.7% and hours worked rose 0.8%. The durable manufacturing sector saw productivity rise 3.3% in Q4 2018, while non-durable rose 1.9%.
Nonfarm unit labor costs, increased 1.0 percent over the last four quarters. For manufacturing, unit labor costs rose 2.2% in Q4 2018 and 0.8% from Q4 2017.
Labor Productivity and Costs Revisions
In Q4 2018, manufacturing sector productivity was revised higher to 2.0% from an initial estimate of 1.3%. Productivity was also revised up in durable goods manufacturing to 3.3% and in nondurable goods industries to 1.9%.
March 7, 2019 – 01:04:34 — The right versus left argument is always the same: government is too big, too expensive and is the main source of problems.
*The Alamo *Antisemitism and the Democrats *Cohen and the Pardon *Trade Deficit Widening *Chevy Lordstown Closures
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The Yellow Rose of Texas- Take Me to Church- Hozier Knocking on Heaven’s Door- Guns and Roses Battle Without Honor or Humanity- Kill Bill OST Angel of the Morning- Juice Newton
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More than 60% of Voters in Kentucky Senate District 31 are Registered Democrats
American conservative agreement and Republican reconciliation concept as two mountain cliffs shaped as an elephant symbol coming together as an American political accord symbolized as a 3D illustration. (Photo: AdobeStock)
On Tuesday, Republican Phillip Wheeler defeated Democrat Darrell Pugh for Kentucky Senate District 31 on Tuesday by a 52% to 48% margin. The Yellow Dog Appalachia district had been represented by Democrats for more than a quarter-century.
The election was held to fill the vacancy created by former state Senator Ray Jones, a Democrat who resigned after winning an election for Pike County Judge-Executive in November.
Mr. Wheeler added to the Republican majority in the state legislature, but the results reenforce a bigger picture.
“The Republican Party under Donald Trump is becoming the party of the working class,” Rich Baris, Director of PPD’s Election Projection Model said.
“Predominantly working, blue collar precincts and districts that have historically supported the Democratic Party, but backed the president in 2016, continue to shift toward the GOP.”
Of the four special election wins for Republicans since November 2018, three were in districts President Trump carried in 2016. But voters remained loyal to their Democratic roots down-ballot.
Now, we are seeing an early 180 from 2017 and 2018, when Democrats flipped seats in special elections for districts the president carried.
More than 60% of voters in Kentucky Senate District 31 are registered Democrats, but President Trump won nearly 80% of the vote in 2016. While Mr. Jones easily defeated his opponents, Democrats couldn’t buck the trend without the power of incumbency.
On February 26, the GOP scored two big upsets in Connecticut, flipping a district that had been under Democratic control for roughly a quarter-century.
Republican Joseph Zullo defeated Democrat Josh Balter in Assembly District 99 by a margin of 51.44% to 43.18%. But Senate District 6 was the biggest upset of the night.
It includes the suburb of Berlin, the more Democratic friendly New Berlin, and a small area in Farmington. Gennaro Bizzarro defeated Democrat Rick Lopes in Senate District 6, 53.01% to 43.69%, which Hillary Clinton carried against President Trump by 26 points.
Mr. Lopes carried New Berlin by about 500 votes, while Mr. Bizzarro carried Berlin by nearly 1,000 votes. Farmington went Republican.
On February 19, Democrat Ibraheem S. Samirah won the special election in Northern Virginia for House of Delegates District 86. But the margin swung Republican by double-digits and he is the first Democrat to fail to crack 60% in the blue district since 2015.
On February 5, Democrats lost Minnesota Senate District 11, a seat that had been controlled by 3 generations of one Democratic family for over 20 years. The swing toward Republicans was 16 points.
U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Jobless claims fell 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ending March 2, slightly less than the consensus forecast. The 4-week moving average came in at 226,250, a decrease of 3,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell 0.1% back to 1.2% for the week ending February 23. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 23 was 1,755,000, a decrease of 50,000.
The 4-week moving average rose slightly from the prior week’s unrevised average of 1,761,750 to 1,766,500, a gain of 4,750.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending February 16.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 16 were in Alaska (3.3), New Jersey (2.8), Montana (2.7), Connecticut (2.6), Rhode Island (2.6), Pennsylvania (2.5), California (2.3), Illinois (2.3), Massachusetts (2.3), Washington (2.2), and west Virginia (2.2).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 23 were in Kentucky (+4,487), Massachusetts (+4,283), Connecticut (+943), Rhode Island (+870), and New York (+419), while the largest decreases were in California (-9,067), Washington (-5,091), Oregon (-824), Texas (-622), and Maryland (-611).
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March 6, 2019 – 1:02:17 — On this episode of Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom discusses why liberals push controversial issues on to us, boycotts and morality.
*AOC And Campaign Finance *Polls are Lies *Olympic Sized Agenda *Why Rand Paul is Right *On Morality and Art
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