U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ending February 16, down 23,000 and beating the lowest forecast.
The consensus forecast was 225,000, with forecasts ranging from 220,000 to 235,000.
The 4-week moving average came in at 235,750, rising 4,000 to the highest level for the average since January 20, 2018 when it was 237,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at a very low 1.2% for the week ending February 9. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment fell 55,000 during the week ending February 9 to 1,725,000.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending February 2.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 2 were in Alaska (3.4), New Jersey (2.8), Montana (2.6), Pennsylvania (2.6), Rhode Island (2.6), Connecticut (2.5), Minnesota (2.4), Illinois (2.3), Massachusetts (2.3), and West Virginia (2.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 9 were in Washington (+4,554), Michigan (+1,356), Puerto Rico (+396), Oregon (+351), and Montana (+287), while the largest decreases were in California (-4,054), Pennsylvania (-2,083), Ohio (-1,859), Iowa (-1,463), and Illinois (-1,415).
Employment, 6-Month Outlook Still Suggest Solid Regional Activity
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey weakened in February, falling to -4.1 and missing the forecast. This is the index’s first negative reading since May 2016.
The consensus forecast was 14.0, with forecasts ranging from a low of 12.0 to a high of 16.0
The diffusion index for future general activity held steady this month at a solid 31.3. More than 46% of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months, while just 15% expect declines.
The future new orders index fell 3 points, but the future shipments index increased 4 points. The future employment index fell 11 points to 23.6, the lowest reading since November 2016.
However, the percentage of firms expecting to increase employment over the next six months (31%) was still far higher than the percentage expecting to decrease employment (7%).
State Department Says 24-Year-Old ISIS Wife Is NOT a U.S. Citizen
Hoda Muthana, 24, told ABC News that she felt obligated to go to Syria after the so-called caliphate had been announced by the Islamic State (ISIS). Photo: Screenshot via ABC News Video)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the 24-year-old woman who joined the Islamic State (ISIS), traveled to Syria and now wants to return, will not be admitted into the United States.
“Ms. Hoda Muthana is not a U.S. citizen and will not be admitted into the United States,” Secretary Pompeo. “She does not have any legal basis, no valid U.S. passport, no right to a passport, nor any visa to travel to the United States.”
“We continue to strongly advise all U.S. citizens not to travel to Syria.”
Hoda Muthana told a much different story to ABC News.
In her first television interview, she claimed to have been born in New Jersey, moved to New York and Washington, D.C., before settling with her family in Alabama as a seventh-grader.
She claimed to have been radicalized after signing up on Twitter around the age of 17, and admitted to spreading ISIS propaganda online. Worse still, she called for attacks on Americans.
On Memorial Day weekend, she wrote:
“Americans wake up. … Go on drive-bys and spill all of their blood. … Veterans, patriots.”
While refusing to provide ABC News details behind her trip — including who funded it — Hoda Muthana said she traveled to Turkey and then through the Syrian border.
In Syria, she married an Islamic State (ISIS) fighter of Australian nationality. When the caliphate was destroyed, she claims it was essentially a free-for-all.
She was captured by Kurdish allied forces and is now one of 1,500 foreign women and children living in a Kurdish-run refugee camp in northern Syria.
When asked what punishment she should receive if allowed back in the U.S., Muthana suggested “therapy.”
Stock quotes and trading stats in U.S. dollars shown closeup on a display monitor. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Slightly more than halfway through the first quarter (Q1) of 2019, U.S. stock markets are facing their first significant test of major resistance levels.
This comes after performance during the first half of Q1, at a rate that is frankly unsustainable on an annualized basis.
Major market averages have YTD gains ranging from +11% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) to better than +16% for the Russell 2000 (^RUT).
While this rally was clearly set up by an extremely oversold condition that climaxed with the December 24 capitulation lows, market averages are now encroaching structural resistance levels that will be hard to break through without much heavier volumes than we’ve seen so far this month.
Let’s take a closer look:
The ^DJI at 25,891 is +11% YTD. Tuesday was the highest close for the ^DJI since November 9 of last year. At yesterday’s intraday high the ^DJI was less than 40 points from 26,000 benchmark. The ^DJI has only posted 2 closes above the 26,000 marker since October 10 of last year. We expect the market will experience significant resistance from here to the 26,200 level.
The S&P 500 (^SPX) at 2779.76 is +11.75 YTD. This is less than 1% from the 2800 barrier, which proved to be a major stumbling block during Q4 last year.
The ^SPX only posted 4 daily closes above 2800 following the selloff in early October. This happened on 2 days back to back in mid October, and 2 more back to back in early November.
Each occasion was followed by close to a 6% correction to the downside. On December 3 the^SPX closed at 2790 after “touching” the 2800 level intraday. This was followed by a brutal 3 week selloff that culminated with the Dec 24 low.
The 2800 level is more than a psychological resistance of a Big Round Number for the ^SPX. It’s a technical level that was met with significant, and aggressive selling, on 3 occasions from mid October through early December last year.
I’m not saying that we can’t go through it to the upside, but I doubt it will happen without at least 1 failed attempt, and without a heavy appetite of volume from the buyers.
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closed Tuesday at 7486, +12.8% YTD, easily within range of the 7500 benchmark, which the ^IXIC has not closed above since November 7th and 8th last year.
The rally attempts in Q4 produced 3 lower highs for the ^IXIC in October through Early December before the death spiral that set up the December 24 lows.
The relative weakness in the ^IXIC was a byproduct of over performance in the preceding 3 years, compounded by issues of cyber security and data privacy among most Social Media Titans.
The ^IXIC is just slightly above its 200 day moving average of 7470, having closed above it by a very thin margin each of the last 3 days.
Mid-morning Wednesday, the ^IXIC is fractionally north of the 7500 level, but we traded through that marker intraday Tuesday as well, before settling marginally lower.
MBA: Applications Showing Promise Edging Closer to Spring Home-Buying Season
A graphic concept depicting a young family and a mortgage application for a home. (Photo: AdobeStock)
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Mortgage applications rose 3.6% from for the week ending February 15, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.
The Market Composite Index, which gauges mortgage loan application volume, rose 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% on an unadjusted basis. That ends a 4-week decline.
“Mortgage rates held steady on mixed economic news, as core inflation remained firm, while retail sales in December were much weaker than expected,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Industry Surveys and Forecasts. “However, overall application activity picked up over the week.”
“After four consecutive declines, purchase applications increased almost 2% over the week and 2.5% compared to a year ago – showing some promise as we edge closer to the spring home-buying season.”
The Refinance Index increased 6%, while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 2%. The unadjusted Purchase Index rose 7% and was 3% higher than the same week one year ago.
The refinance share of mortgage activity fell marginally to 41.7% of total applications from 41.8%. The share for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) activity was unchanged at 7.7% of total applications.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications declined to 10.2% from 11.0%. The Veterans Administration (VA) share of total applications fell to 10.1% from 10.9%. The Department of Agriculture (USDA) share rose marginally to 0.7% from 0.6%.
Averages for Interest Rates H/T: MBA
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) rose to 4.66% from 4.65%, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
The effective rate remained unchanged.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $484,350) gained from 4.48% to 4.56%, with points decreasing to 0.23 from 0.27 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
The effective rate increased.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA rose from 4.61% to 4.68%, with points rising to 0.58 from 0.53 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
The effective rate increased.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell was 4.04%, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
The effective rate decreased.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.00% from 3.97%, with points decreasing to 0.24 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
The effective rate decreased.
About the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.
Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
Liberals have successfully convinced many Americans that life without government is impossible, and have basically argued that wrong is right.
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Race in NoVa Rattled After Anti-Semitic Posts By Winner Ibraheem S. Samirah Surfaced
Virginia Election Results Graphic.
Democrat Ibraheem S. Samirah has won the special election in Northern Virginia for House of Delegates District 86, but the vote share swung Republican by double-digits.
The vacancy in the heavily Democratic district in NoVa was created by Jennifer Boysko, who won a state Senate seat in a special election in January. State Senator Boysko won 68.64% of the vote on June 13, 2017, handily defeating Linda Schultz who won just 31.36%.
There were three candidates on the ballot on Tuesday: Samirah, Republican Gregg Garrett Nelson and independent Connie Haines Hutchinson.
Samirah had been endorsed by Boysko and, at least at first, it appeared to be a fairly sleepy special election.
But the endorsement was removed from the website after anti-Semitic social media posts written by Samirah 5 years ago were uncovered.
When the social media posts surfaced, Samirah apologized.
“I am so sorry that my ill-chosen words added to the pain of the Jewish community, and I seek your understanding and compassion as I prove to you our common humanity,” he wrote.
Controversy aside, House of Delegates District 86 is a strongly Democratic district. But Samirah is the first Democrat to fail to crack 60% since 2015.
Hillary Clinton carried the district 65% to 30% in 2016, reflecting changing demographics. The 17-precincts district — 14 of which are in Fairfax County, 3 in Loudoun County — is 57.5% White, 21.3% Hispanic, 21.3% Asian and 8.4% Black.
On Tuesday night, Samirah defeated Nelson 59.49% to 34.41%, with Hutchinson taking another 5.89% of the vote. That’s more than a 10-point swing to the Republican candidate.
UPDATE: Fairfax County reported additional votes, bringing the margin to 60.31% to 33.35% to 6.11%, still a 10-point swing.
SECOND UPDATE: Another several hundred additional votes brings the margin to 59.49% to 34.41% to 5.89%, more than a 10-point swing. If Samirah’s total remains below 60%, he’ll be the first Democrat to fail to crack the threshold since 2015.
It comes on the heels of a Democratic loss in a special election for Minnesota Senate District 11 on February 5. That was a 16-point swing against Democrats in a district controlled by 3 generations of one family for over 20 years.
Rich Baris, the People’s Pundit, also contributed to this article.
President Donald J. Trump listens as Vice President Mike Pence discusses Directive-4, the establishment of the United States Space Force. (Photo: Courtesy of the White House)
President Donald J. Trump on Tuesday signed Directive-4 instructing Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan (acting) to develop a legislative proposal establishing the U.S. Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces.
The White House said Directive-4 is the first strategic step toward guaranteeing American space dominance by establishing the framework for the new branch, which will start as an agency of the U.S. Air Force.
“Our destiny, beyond the Earth, is not only a matter of national identity, but a matter of national security,” President Trump said.
Though it hasn’t received much media attention, President Trump has already established himself as a consequential leader in space exploration. In his first 100 days, he signed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017.
Then-acting NASA Administrator Robert Lightfoot said it was vital for “our nation’s space, aeronautics, science, and technology development programs to thrive.”
In June 2017, the president revived the National Space Council for the first time in 24 years, and empowered them to help implement his space policy. That policy is to make human exploration of the solar system a national priority.
Vice President Mike Pence, who chairs the National Space Council, said the president’s “highest priority is the safety and security of the American people.”
“Space is a warfighting domain just like the air, land, & sea,” he tweeted. “America must lead.”
Directive-4 is estimated to cost less than $100 million, and will help counter threats in space from foreign countries. Defense One said the new Space Force will include four components, of which three do not require congressional approval.
It “consists of a combatant command for space, a joint agency that will purchase military satellites and a new war fighting community.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced on Twitter he will send a formal request to the president asking for the headquarters of Space Force Combatant Command to be established at Cape Canaveral.
“Today, I am formally sending a request to @realDonaldTrump to place the headquarters for the Space Force Combatant Command here in Florida @NASAKennedy in Cape Canaveral,” he tweeted. “This is part of Florida’s history and is a logical fit for our state.”
Today, I am formally sending a request to @realDonaldTrump to place the headquarters for the Space Force Combatant Command here in Florida @NASAKennedy in Cape Canaveral. This is part of Florida's history and is a logical fit for our state.
Once signed, the final part of the directive must be sent to the U.S. Congress for approval.
The Trump Administration’s focus on space exploration and defense is part of the “America First” agenda. It’s been more than 70 years since the last branch of the Armed Forces has been created, when the U.S. Air Force was established in 1947.
In December 2017, President Trump signed Space Policy Directive-1, establishing a public-private partnership for human missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond.
In May 2018, he signed Space Policy Directive–2, which reforms U.S. commercial space regulatory framework with a goal to ensure the nation maintains its role as a leader in space commerce.
“This time we will do more than plant our flag and leave our footprints,” President Trump said. “We will establish a long-term presence, expand our economy, and build the foundation for an eventual mission to Mars, which is actually going to happen very quickly.”
Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)
Bernie Sanders touted a now-deleted editorial claiming “the American dream is more apt to be realized” in Venezuela and other nations in South America.
The 77-year-old Vermont senator has repeatedly expressed support for the regime and system of government in Venezuela, though now he is attempting to distance himself at a time when the nation is collapsing.
In 2011, Senator Sanders published an editorial originally appearing on a site called Valley News, which has since been scrubbed. It lamented “the fact” the U.S. “wealth gap is also a race gap.”
“These days, the American dream is more apt to be realized in South America, in places such as Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina, where incomes are actually more equal today than they are in the land of Horatio Alger,” the editorial claimed. “Who’s the banana republic now?”
According to Mercy Corps, 90 percent of the population in Venezuela lives in poverty, and more than half of families are unable to meet basic food needs.
The socialist country also has one of the highest crime rates in the world.
Bernie Sanders once lamented American journalists talking “about how bad a country is when people are lining up for food.”
“You know, it’s funny. Sometimes American journalists talk about how bad a country is when people are lining up for food. That’s a good thing,” he said in an interview on August 8, 1985. “In other countries, people don’t line up for food. The rich get the food and the poor starve to death.”
That was a less-than popular view in the South Florida Venezuelan community President Donald Trump visited on Tuesday.
President Trump has taken aim at socialism and communism, and proclaimed there was “a new day” in the Western Hemisphere.
“We’re here to proclaim a new day is coming in Latin America,” President Trump said. “In Venezuela and across the Western Hemisphere socialism is dying and liberty, prosperity, and Democracy are being reborn.”
“Maximum Pressure” Will Continue Until Verifiable Deal Is Reached for Complete Denuclearization
U.S. President Donald J. Trump shaking hands with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un during the US-DPRK nuclear summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Photo: White House)
North Korea will not see relief from sanctions before the second nuclear summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un.
Deputy Spokesperson Robert Palladino announced in the Press Briefing Room at the State Department on Tuesday that sanctions will remain in place until a verifiable plan to denuclearize the Korean peninsula is in place.
In June 2018, President Trump and Chairman Kim signed a document on pledging Pyongyang would work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
The historic summit was the first-ever between the U.S. and North Korea after more than six decades of hostility. Chairman Kim said the world would see a “major change” in his regime, which agreed to destroy a “major” missile testing site.
Previously, the Trump Administration successfully pushed a U.N. Security Council resolution imposing the most severe sanctions ever on the regime. In total, the sanctions cost Pyongyang more than $1 billion in exports.
The administration followed up by sanctioning a Russian bank that was “knowingly facilitating” illicit transactions related to North Korea.
Senator Cory Gardner, R-Col., said at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. last Thursday that he worried the U.S. would lift sanctions without taking steps to end the regime’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
“Maximum pressure must be applied to the maximum effect,” the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, said. “China and the United States are not exactly on the same page.”
President Trump has in fact insisted the “maximum pressure” campaign continue until the two countries reach a verifiable deal. In return for denuclearization, the president will also have to convince Chairman Kim he can guarantee personal and regime security.
North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, will become a great Economic Powerhouse. He may surprise some but he won’t surprise me, because I have gotten to know him & fully understand how capable he is. North Korea will become a different kind of Rocket – an Economic one!
“North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, will become a great Economic Powerhouse,” President Trump also tweeted. “He may surprise some but he won’t surprise me, because I have gotten to know him & fully understand how capable he is.”
“North Korea will become a different kind of Rocket – an Economic one!”
Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun traveled to Hanoi on Tuesday ahead of the president. The second nuclear summit will take place in Hanoi, Vietnam, from February 27 to 28.
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