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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) showed openings rose more than expected to 5.9 million in June. Hires decreased to 6.7 million, though still came in at the second highest level ever recorded.
Forecasts for job openings ranged from a low of 4.9 million to 5.5 million. The consensus forecast was just 5.29 million.
Quits and total separations also rose, however. Total separations rose to 4.8 million. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 1.9% while the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.4%.
The BLS stated those gains are the result of a limited resumption of economic activity following the efforts to “slow the spread” of coronavirus (COVID-19) in March and April.
This article and accompanying chart are being updated.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
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Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, beating the forecasts.
The forecasts for total nonfarm payrolls ranged from a low of 200,000 to a high of 2,400,000. The consensus was 1,675,000. The forecast for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 9.8% to a high of 11.5%. The consensus forecast was 10.5%.
The labor force participation rate was virtually unchanged at 61.4% following increases in May and June. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 1.4 million in July to 143.5 million. The less-cited employment-population ratio rose by 0.5 percentage point to 55.1% but remains lower than in February (61.1%).
In July, construction employment changed little (+20,000), following job gains of 619,000 in May and June combined. Construction recovered roughly half of its pre-pandemic level in May, though employment in the industry remains 444,000 below its February level.
Manufacturing employment increased by 26,000 in July. While it recovered nearly 20% of its pre-pandemic level in May and has added 623,000 jobs over the past 3 months, employment is 740,000 lower than in February.
In July, wages, or average hourly earnings (AHEs) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, rose by 7 cents to $29.39. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees fell by 11 cents to $24.63.
Wages rose 4.8% on the 12-month basis in July after rising 4.9% in June. However, the large changes and pandemic response impact have complicated trends in wage growth, which has been consistently over the critical 3% threshold for nearly two years.
Total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 26,000, from +2,699,000 to +2,725,000, and June was revised down by 9,000, from +4,800,000 to +4,791,000, though the latter is still the largest gain ever on record, by far. Combined, the number of jobs created for the two months was 17,000 higher than previously reported.
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. economy
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell significantly to 1,186,000 for the week ending August 1, a decrease of 249,000. The previous week was upwardly revised (1,000) to 1,435,000.
The figures were far more positive than economists’ expectations. Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,380,000 to a high of 1,500,000. The consensus forecast was 1,422,000.
The 4-week moving average came in at 1,337,750, down 31,000. The previous week’s average was upwardly revised by just 250 from 1,368,500 to 1,368,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate took a drive to 11.0% for the week ending July 25, down 0.6% from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 25 was 16,107,000, a decrease of 844,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 67,000 from 17,018,000 to 16,951,000.
The 4-week moving average was 16,628,250, a decrease of 413,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 16,750 from 17,058,250 to 17,041,500.
Extended Benefits were available in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia (D.C.).
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 18 were in Nevada (24.9), Puerto Rico (23.5), Hawaii (21.0), California (18.1), Louisiana (17.2), New York (16.3), Connecticut (15.2), Georgia (14.5), Massachusetts (14.3), and Michigan (13.8).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 25 were in Virginia (+5,020), Nevada (+2,842), Missouri (+2,606), Indiana (+2,218), and New Jersey (+2,141), while the largest decreases were in California (-44,941), Georgia (-37,329), Florida (-17,514), Louisiana (-13,568), and Texas (-11,104).
Initial jobless claims fell significantly to 1,186,000
Tempe, Arizona (PPD) — The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) rose to 58.1% in July, stronger than economists expected. The reading indicates U.S. service sector expanded for the second month after two months in contraction.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 53.5 to a high of 57.5. The consensus forecast was 55.0. In June, the NMI posted the largest single-month percentage-point gain since the NMI debut in 1997, and now in July is at the highest level since February 2019.
“Respondents remain concerned about the pandemic; however, they are mostly optimistic about business conditions and the economy as businesses continue to reopen,” Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. “Sentiment varies across industries, as they are impacted differently.”
| Services NMI | Manufacturing PMI | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index Jul | Series Index Jun | Percent Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend** (Months) | Series Index Jul | Series Index Jun | Percent Point Change |
| Services PMI | 58.1 | 57.1 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 2 | 54.2 | 52.6 | +1.6 |
| Business Activity/ Production | 67.2 | 66.0 | +1.2 | Growing | Faster | 2 | 62.1 | 57.3 | +4.8 |
| New Orders | 67.7 | 61.6 | +6.1 | Growing | Faster | 2 | 61.5 | 56.4 | +5.1 |
| Employment | 42.1 | 43.1 | -1.0 | Contracting | Faster | 5 | 44.3 | 42.1 | +2.2 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 55.2 | 57.5 | -2.3 | Slowing | Slower | 14 | 55.8 | 56.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 52.0 | 60.7 | -8.7 | Growing | Slower | 2 | 47.0 | 50.5 | -3.5 |
| Prices | 57.6 | 62.4 | -4.8 | Increasing | Slower | 4 | 53.2 | 51.3 | +1.9 |
| Backlog of Orders | 55.9 | 51.9 | +4.0 | Growing | Faster | 2 | 51.8 | 45.3 | +6.5 |
| New Export Orders | 49.3 | 58.9 | -9.6 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 50.4 | 47.6 | +2.8 |
| Imports | 46.3 | 52.9 | -6.6 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 53.1 | 48.8 | +4.3 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 50.0 | 55.9 | -5.9 | Unchanged | From Too High | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 41.6 | 44.6 | -3.0 |
| Overall Economy | Growing | Faster | 2 | ||||||
| Services Sector | Growing | Faster | 2 |
The ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) also came in stronger than expected in July, up to 54.2% from 52.6% in June. The PMI also exceeded pre-pandemic levels, hitting the highest level since April 2019.
Tempe, Ariz. — The Institute for Supply
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Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau reported factory orders, or new orders for manufactured goods, rose for the second straight month in June, beating the forecast rising $25.5 billion or 6.2% to $437.2 billion. That follows a downwardly revised but still greater-than-expected 7.7% gain in May.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 3.3% to a high of 7.7%. The consensus forecast was 5.2%.
In June, new orders for manufactured durable goods — or, manufacturing goods built to last three years or more — rose $14.6 billion or 7.6% to $207.2 billion. That’s the second straight month of gains and up from the initially reported 7.3% gain, following a 15% rise in May.
Factory orders, or new orders for manufactured
Regus, N.J. (PPD) — The Autodata Corporation reported U.S. light vehicle sales rose 10.2% in July to 14.53 million units (SAAR), up from 13.18 million in June. That’s the third consecutive monthly increase from a low of 8.81 million in April, though sales are still -14.6% year-over-year.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 13.5 million to a high of 14.5 million. The consensus forecast was 14.5 million. Overall auto sales soared 16.7% last month to 3.50 million units.
The Autodata Corporation reported U.S. light vehicle
