Buying American Made Cars. Supporting the American auto industry and economy photomontage with automobiles and the American Flag. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. light vehicle sales declined 4.8% (-2.8% y/y) during January to 16.7 million units (SAAR), the lowest level since August 2017.
Light truck sales led the decline falling 7.9% to 11.24 million units following a 0.7% gain in December.
Sales of domestic light trucks declined 8.2% (-3.4% y/y) to 8.96 million units after a 0.5% gain in December. Sales of imported light trucks fell 6.6% (+4.7% y/y) to 2.28 million units following an increase of 1.2%.
Trucks’ share of the U.S. vehicle market declined to 67.3%, the lowest level since February 2018.
Passenger car sales rose 2.1% (-4.8% y/y) in January to 5.46 million units after two straight months of declines. Sales of domestic cars rose 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) to 4.01 million units.
Sales of imported passenger cars jumped 6.6% (-10.4% y/y) to 1.45 million units after three months of significant declines.
Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax Denies Sexual Assault Allegations
Then-Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam speaks at a rally in Richmond in October. (Reuters)
Democratic Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is weighing his options, as Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax vehemently denies sexual assault allegations.
Governor Northam was under fire for his comments surrounding and support for a bill that would legalize abortion up until the baby was born. But it was a photo published by the conservative website Big League Politics that caused his own party to turn on him.
Originally, Governor Northam, who smeared Republican opponent Ed Gillespie as a racist, apologized for appearing in a yearbook photo wearing either a blackface or KuKluxKlan costume.
But he reversed his position, later stating he did not believe he is either of the men in the 1980s-era yearbook photo from AMI. Further, he did admit to painting his face black once to Moonwalk as Michael Jackson.
That explanation did not suffice for members of his own party, who want him gone amid controversial and unpopular late-term abortion bills.
As pressure on the governor to resign continues to mount, the same website published accusations against Lt. Governor Fairfax.
Stanford Fellow Vanessa Tyson’s allegations date back to the 2004 Democratic National Convention. While Lt. Governor Fairfax confirmed those allegations are not new, his office vehemently denied their veracity.
Lawrence Roberts, Chief of Staff, and Communications Director Lauren Burke, released a joint statement saying “an online publication released a false and unsubstantiated allegation against Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax.”
“Lt. Governor Fairfax has an outstanding and well-earned reputation for treating people with dignity and respect. He has never assaulted anyone — ever — in any way, shape, or form,” they said in the statement.
It continues:
The person reported to be making this false allegation first approached the Washington Post—one of the nation’s most prominent newspapers—more than a year ago, around the time of the Lieutenant Governor’s historic inauguration. The Post carefully investigated the claim for several months. After being presented with facts consistent with the Lt. Governor’s denial of the allegation, the absence of any evidence corroborating the allegation, and significant red lags and inconsistencies within the allegation, the Post made the considered decision not to publish the story.
Tellingly, not one other reputable media outlet has seen fit to air this false claim. Only now, at a time of intense media attention surrounding Virginia politics, has this false claim been raised again.
This is part of the sad and dark politics that the Lt. Governor has dedicated himself to helping Virginia and the nation rise above.
The Lt. Governor will take appropriate legal action against those attempting to spread this defamatory and false allegation.
While The Washington Post confirmed receiving the allegations in late 2017, they did not corroborate finding significant red flags with the allegation.
“Fairfax and the woman told different versions of what happened in the hotel room with no one else present,” the paper said. “The Washington Post could not find anyone who could corroborate either version. The Post did not find ‘significant red flags and inconsistencies within the allegations,’ as the Fairfax statement incorrectly said.”
Meanwhile, Morning Consult found a 41-percentage-point drop in Governor Northam’s net approval rating. Worth noting, the poll conducted Feb. 2-3 was only of 291 voters statewide, and has a 6-point margin of error.
It found 48% disapprove of his job performance, up 22 points from a Jan. 1-30 survey of 4,326 Virginia voters that had a 1-point margin of error. His approval in the latest poll was 29%, down 19 points from the prior survey.
An American Flag flying in front of a U.S. manufacturing factory. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Factory orders fell 0.6% in November, missing the low end of the forecast range as oil offset a solid 0.7% gain in durable goods. The consensus forecast came in at 0.2%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.0%.
New orders for manufactured goods, which have been down two consecutive months, fell $3.1 billion (0.6%) to $499.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Monday.
This follows a 2.1% decline in October.
Petroleum and coal products overall came in at ‐9.3, with petroleum refineries at -10.1. That offset a 16.9% gain in non-defense aircraft and parts in transportation.
Shipments, also down for two consecutive months, fell a near identifical $3.2 billion or 0.6% to $505.1 billion. That follows a 0.1% decline in October.
Unfilled orders, again down two consecutive months, fell $1.8 billion or 0.1% to $1,181.5 billion after declining 0.2% in October.
The unfilled orders‐to‐shipments ratio was 6.60, down from 6.68 in October.
Inventories, after twenty‐four consecutive monthly increases, fell $1.0 billion or 0.1% to $681.1 billion, following a 0.2% gain in October.
The inventories‐to‐shipments ratio was 1.35, up from 1.34 in October
On this episode of Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom tackles the political implications of racism, and the principles of it being sold to the American people.
*Super Bowl Ads *What is Racism? *About Governor Northam *The Symbols, Not the Actual *Taxation and Redistribution is Racist
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Coach Bill Belichick, Quarterback Tom Brady Score Record Sixth Win in Lowest Scoring Super Bowl in History
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots defeated Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. The final score was 13 to 3.
Bill Belichick, 66, is now the most successful coach in Super Bowl history and the oldest to claim the title. He and Brady, 41, made history claiming a record sixth win for the New England Patriots.
Brady and the Patriots scored the first touchdown in the 4th quarter. It was the the lowest scoring Super Bowl in NFL history, and the first to have neither team see the end zone until the final quarter.
The Patriot defense had a plan to stop the most explosive offense in the league, and they executed on it. Goff and the Rams were forced to punt in their first 8 possessions.
But in the fourth quarter, Brady drove the Patriots down the field with just 3 passes, the last being a 34-yard bomb to Rob Gronkowski that set up Sony Michel to run in the game’s sole touchdown with 7 minutes remaining.
Stephen Gostkowski all but ended the game with a 41-yard field goal after the decision by the Patriots to kick at 4 and 1 with 1 minute and 16 seconds remaining.
“It was an unbelievable year, we fought through it more than anything,” Brady said in the post-game interview. “They played so well. Their defense was great. They made it tough on every play.”
“We finally got a touchdown and our defense had a game of the year. We have been this far and lost and it’s really tough. I wish we had played better on offense but we won.”
“I can’t believe it.”
Meanwhile, the National Anthem was performed by legendary soul singer Gladys Knight, a performance that was heralded. The half-time show put on by Maroon 5, Travis Scott and Big Boi was less well-received.
The crowd once again booed NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the Vince Lombardi trophy presentation.
Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing ’em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.
Senator Bernie Sanders, D-(I)-Vt., becoming the Democratic Party nominee for president would indeed be a disaster for the GOP — in 2024.
In 2024, Republicans will likely be facing a seemingly-ironclad rule that has held since 1952, one that holds a two-term administration of either party has little chance a successor can be victorious.
On the other hand, most first-term presidents or their successors in office — e.g. Kennedy/Johnson and Harding/Coolidge — get re-elected.
In the twelve presidential administrations since 1920, only three presidents, — Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — were not re-elected. Not surprisingly, all three were done in by poor to disastrous economies.
The Democratic administrations of Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Harry S. Truman ran to five victories in a row.
With those historical precedents in mind, the odds are that President Donald Trump will get the nod from voters for a second term if the economy continues to improve.
If the unprecedented benefits of low employment for blacks — with whom Senator Sanders did poorly — and Hispanics continue their current pace, then President Trump could be positioned for a landslide win.
In such circumstances, the opposing party tends to give vent to its most radical or out-of-touch elements. The Republican Party nominated Barry Goldwater, and the Democratic Party nominated George McGovern and Walter Mondale. They each suffered a massive Electoral College rejection.
Mr. Mondale suffered the worst defeat, carrying only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia (DC). Worth noting, Mr. Mondale nearly lost Minnesota, besting Ronald Reagan 49.72% to 49.54%, or just 1,036,364 votes to 1,032,603 votes.
Mr. Sanders, with his army of “Bernie Bros.,” ticks every box in the crusade type candidacy.
But it is challenging to see the American electorate at a time of full or near-full employment electing what would be perceived as a tax-raising socialist, and conveyor of who knows what new list of politically correct social restructuring.
The prospect of a Sanders candidacy is very real. He has not yet made a move in that direction, but to discount such a possibility would be foolish. Nathan Robinson at the leftwing “The Guardian” hails Senator Sanders as “the most progressive choice for president.”
Notably, according to the Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky, a high-profile Sanders partisan David Sirota attacked Beto O’Rourke, a younger potential rival for the progressive left’s hearts. Tomasky, a Hillary supporter, has in turn attacked Mr. Sanders. David Brook at NBC’s “Think” goes further and attacks Mr. Sanders’ supporters as potential “poisoners.”
Game on.
More importantly, Mr. Sanders leads by a large margin in polls surveying only progressive candidates. He consistently polls in second place behind former Vice President Joe Biden in broader polls of prospective Democratic nominees.
He has a large following of grassroots supporters to reignite. The second time around as a known factor to the left would make that task more simple, as would the raising of substantial funds.
While a Sanders candidacy would be welcomed by Republicans, the historical reality indicates this would bode poorly for the GOP in 2024. That is particularly noteworthy if a more traditional Democratic candidate loses to President Trump.
If Senator Sanders were to run in 2020 and lose, then the natural expected result would be the humbling of the more radical elements. The Democratic Party would likely turn to a centrist candidate, which would make the job of electing a successor to President Trump very difficult considering the “third-term” hoodoo.
Conversely, if Mr. Sanders were again denied the nomination after a vigorous campaign — with mass rallies attended by hordes of youthful leftists and Hollywood supporters — the pressure for a similar candidate in 2024 would be unstoppable.
President George H.W. Bush broke the third term jinx by having the good fortune to run against an utterly hopeless incompetent in former Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis, who blew an 18-point lead.
Whomever the GOP’s successor to President Trump, he or she can only hope that Senator Sanders is denied the 2020 nomination, and a similar radical is the Democrats’ choice in 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin expectedly announced his country would also suspend a Cold War-era nuclear arms control treaty with the United States, claiming the “response will be symmetrical.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Friday that the U.S. would suspend obligations.
“To this day, Russia remains in material breach of its treaty obligations not to produce, possess, or flight-test a ground-launched intermediate-range cruise missile system,” Secretary Pompeo said in the Press Briefing Room at the State Department.
“In spite of this violation, for almost six years the United States has gone to tremendous lengths to preserve this agreement and to ensure security for our people, our allies, and our partners.”
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) was signed in 1987 by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev. It prohibits the U.S. and Russia from testing or deploying land-based short or intermediate range missiles (300 to 3,400 miles).
“Russia’s violation puts millions of Europeans and Americans at greater risk,” Mr. Pompeo added. “It aims to put the United States at a military disadvantage, and it undercuts the chances of moving our bilateral relationship in a better direction.”
But while both countries have sea- and air-launched missiles that fly in these ranges, President Donald Trump also said Russia has violated the treaty repeatedly.
“The United States has fully adhered to the INF Treaty for more than 30 years, but we will not remain constrained by its terms while Russia misrepresents its actions,” the president said in a statement. “We cannot be the only country in the world unilaterally bound by this treaty, or any other.”
“We will move forward with developing our own military response options and will work with NATO and our other allies and partners to deny Russia any military advantage from its unlawful conduct.”
Russia faced a hard deadline on Saturday to return to compliance. President Putin insisted their newest ground-launched cruise missile does not violate the treaty.
“I would like to draw your attention to the fact that we must not and will not let ourselves be drawn into an expensive arms race,” Mr. Putin told his ministers. Money to build the new missiles, he said, will come from the existing defense budget.
Minister of Defense Sergei K. Shoigu suggested Russia design and test a land-based launcher for its maritime cruise missile. The Kalibr is Russia’s answer to the American Tomahawk, and a new short-range ballistic missile.
“I agree,” Mr. Putin responded. “Our response will be symmetrical. Our American partners announced that they are suspending their participation in the INF Treaty, and we are suspending it too.”
“They said that they are engaged in research, development and design work, and we will do the same.”
The U.S. has raised the issue of noncompliance with officials at the highest levels of government more than 30 times. Yet, Russia has simply denied that its missile system is noncompliant or violates the treaty.
President Trump also argued China should be a party to the INF Treaty, though Beijing has rejected calls for them to join an updated version.
“For arms control to effectively contribute to national security, all parties must faithfully implement their obligations,” the president added.
“We stand ready to engage with Russia on arms control negotiations that meet these criteria, and, importantly, once that is done, develop, perhaps for the first time ever, an outstanding relationship on economic, trade, political, and military levels.”
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Building in the Lower Manhattan Financial District, New York City. (Photo: Tomasz Zajda/AdobeStock/PPD)
By now, you’ve all seen the headlines: “Best January market performance in 30 years” and “Best single month for stocks since 2015”.
Was January the month that saved the market? Or, was the market performance this month merely a natural “mean reversion” from a ridiculously oversold condition that we were left with at the end of 2018?
With multiple factors in play, it helps to hit the rewind button just to refresh our vision of what happened.
It’s amazing how far we’ve come in just 4 to 6 weeks!! During 10 calendar days in December, investors were deluged with the fear mongering narrative of a mythical economic death spiral that would lead to an inevitable recession in 2019, and yes, many market mavens and media talking heads were rooting for it. I don’t need to tell you why.
From Monday, December 17, through Monday, December 24, an already weak stock market went into a free fall. This 6-day stretch culminated in the capitulation low on December 24.
How convenient that the 2.5% to 3% decline on Christmas Eve was a very lightly attended half day of trading, wedged in between a weekend, and Christmas Day, when markets would obviously be closed.
How convenient that the 5 days of non-stop selling the prior week took place when nearly every Mutual Fund, Hedge Fund, and professional money manager had closed their books for the year.
Basically, this means “No New Positions,” just cleaning everything up for year-end reporting.
If you were a conspiracy theorist, or even Mike Clancy, there would be no better time to envision a cabal of big money bears, global financial terrorists, and out of control computerized algorithms all foaming at the mouth over the prospects of “breaking” the U.S. Financial Markets.
You think I’m crazy?
The ubiquitous Jim Cramer has called for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate the nature of the selling in the stock market on the half day of trading, December 24.
I agree with him 100%. But I digress. It’s a New Year.
Let’s talk market performance in January and how it sets up the rest of the year.
Keep in mind, the market had a strong rebound the last 4 days of 2018, that helped set the stage for the January rally. It was also critical that we had 2 trading days, December 26 and January 4, within a 6-day span where the Up Volume was 95% of total volume.
This is indicative of investor reaction to an EXTREMELY OVERSOLD market condition, and a very bullish indicator for an intermediate-to-longer term market move, not just a “blip”.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed January 31 at 24,999.67, just teasingly below the psychological benchmark of 25,000. The DJIA rallied +7.2% in January and settled the month +14.7% higher than the December 24 capitulation low.
Including trading on Friday, Feb 1, the DJIA has now closed above the 200 day Moving Average of 24,985 each of the last 3 days. The longer the DJIA can hold its 200 day MA, the more confident investors will become that there is a solid base for the Blue Chip Benchmark to move higher.
The S&P 500 (^SPX) closed at 2704, a +7.8% gain for the month, and +15% above the Christmas Eve low. This was the first close above the 2700 benchmark for the S&P 500 since December 4.
The S&P 500 remains below the 200 day moving average by 1.4%, but within shouting range for the first time in 2 months.
On Friday, Feb 1, after straddling the benchmark 2700 level all day, the S&P 500 posted a modest gain of +2.43 to close at 2706.53. For the second day, the S&P 500 held above the 2700, including a weekly close above the benchmark on Friday
The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closing at 7281.74 is a +9.7% gain for January, and gives the NASDAQ a +17.5% lift off the capitulation lows from December 24..
While the NASDAQ was aided this week my Apple Inc. (AAPL) gaining +6% and Facebook, Inc. (FB) gaining 10% after their earnings reports midweek, the tech heavy index had a fractional decline Friday of -17 points.
This was largely attributable to Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) declining over -4% in response to slightly lowered revenue guidance following their Q4 earnings.
Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ at 7263.87 is within shouting distance of its 200 day moving average of 7450 for the first time in a couple months.
Looking Forward
I’m already starting to see comments in an assortment of financial media that February is historically one of the worse months for stock market performance.
Clearly, it would be unrealistic to see a repeat of the gains from January, but with momentum behind a steadily improving economy, and the potential for a resolution of the trade dispute with China later in the month, it might be wise to throw that historical template in the recycle folder.
Wages and salaries with keyboard graphic concept. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Momius)
Following more than a decade of subpar-to-stagnant growth in the U.S. economy, American workers are finally starting to see a pay raise.
In the fourth-quarter (Q4) 2018, workers’ wages saw the largest gain since Q3 2008, and average hourly earnings have risen by 3% or greater for six consecutive months.
The 3.1% increase reported in the Labor Department (DOL) Employment Cost Index last week marked the first time in more than a decade that wages and salaries broke 3%.
The gain all but ensured moderate rate hikes would remain the path forward.
The Federal Reserve closely watches the Employment Cost Index, which also found compensation costs for civilian workers rose 2.9% for the 12-month period ending December 2018.
Compensation costs for private industry workers increased 3.0% over the year, an already solid compensation costs gain of 2.6% in December 2017.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday released the monthly jobs report, less-commonly known as the Employment Situation. It showed strong wage growth and job creation, both of which largely unaffected by the partial government shutdown.
Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta said the January 2019 Employment Situation report made them even more “confident the nation’s economy will continue to build on the strength seen in 2018 and the first report of 2019.”
“January’s Job Report demonstrated the strength of the American economy, with 304,000 jobs added as private sector job creation continued to surge despite the partial government shutdown,” Secretary Acosta said in a statement.
“Significant growth in the mining, construction, and transportation and warehousing sectors led the report.”
Construction employment added 52,000 new jobs in January, and 338,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Mining added 7,000 jobs for the month and has added 64,000 jobs over the year, a complete reversal from a negative trend under the previous administration.
While manufacturing added 13,000 new jobs, employment in the sector has expanded by an astonishing 261,000 over the year. Strong job creation in these sectors has now applied sustained upward pressure on wages.
“The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We saw significant growth in nearly all industries, with manufacturing adding the most jobs in more than four years.”
On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report found U.S. private sector employment rose by 213,000 jobs from December to January, including 35,000 in construction and 33,000 in manufacturing.
“Average hourly earnings rose by 3.2%, marking the sixth straight month in which year over year hourly earnings have been growing at or above 3%,” Secretary Acosta added. “Average weekly earnings rose at an even more robust 3.5%, year over year.”
For 2019, wages have gained by 85 cents, or 3.2%.
The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 4.0%, though it was in large part the result of roughly 175,000 furloughed federal workers seeking and obtaining employment in the private sector during the shutdown.
Still, the report in January marked the 11th consecutive month that the unemployment rate has been at or below 4.0%, and 100th straight month of positive job creation.
As a result of Americans entering the labor market, the participation rate rose to 63.2%, the highest for the gauge since August 2013.
Lara Trump warms up the crowd before her father-in-law President Donald Trump takes the stage during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People’s Pundit Daily)
The Trump Campaign released a statement touting another strong jobs report for the month of January, saying the U.S. economy “continues to defy the odds.”
“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, our booming economy has hit pay dirt and continues to defy the odds,” Lara Trump, a senior advisor said in a statement. “Yet again, the monthly jobs report doubled expectations with 304,000 new jobs created in January.”
The consensus called for 158,000 jobs for the month, with forecasts ranging from 140,000 to 183,000. But some economists were even decrying the possibility of the first report showing negative job creation in roughly 8 years.
Instead, the post-government shutdown report marked the 100th month of positive job creation.
More significantly, labor force participation and wages have increased significantly under President Trump following years of stagnation under the previous administration.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) reported Thursday and the Labor Department confirmed in the report, wages and salaries in the fourth-quarter (Q4) 2018 posted the largest gain since Q3 2008.
The 3.1% increase, which was included in the Employment Cost Index that came in at 0.7%, is the first time in more than a decade that wages and salaries broke 3%.
In January, average hourly earnings (wages) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents to $27.56, following a 10-cent gain in December.
Over the year, wages have gained by 85 cents, or 3.2%.
On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report found U.S. private sector employment rose by 213,000 jobs from December to January, easily beating the forecast.
“The positive impact that that these new jobs are having on American families and communities is immeasurable,” Lara Trump added.
“While the Democrats obstruct commonsense solutions to secure our border, hardworking Americans know that Donald Trump continues to fight for their prosperity and safety every single day.”
Worth noting, the Trump Campaign on Thursday filed its fundraising report to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) showing they had raised over $21 million for the fourth quarter (Q4) 2018.
Of the total, 98.5% came from donations of $200 or less.
“Low-dollar” contributions are indicative of grassroots enthusiasm and working-class support, which was and has been a clear and consistent trend for the campaign.
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