U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims for the week ending November 24 rose a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 234,000, up from the unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 218,500.
That’s the second straight gain in the firing rate in two covered weeks after 2018 midterm election.
However, the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending November 17. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 17 was 1,710,000, an increase of 50,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
The previous week’s level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,668,000 to 1,660,000.
The 4-week moving average was 1,667,750, an increase of 19,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,750 from 1,649,750 to 1,648,000.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 10 were in Alaska (2.6), New Jersey (2.0), Puerto Rico (1.8), California (1.6), Connecticut (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.5), Virgin Islands (1.5), Montana (1.4), and Washington (1.4).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 17 were in Illinois (+2,026), Minnesota (+1,354), Wisconsin (+726), Missouri (+626), and Texas (+536), while the largest decreases were in California (-6,861), New Jersey (-2,347), New York (-1,680), Florida (-886), and Pennsylvania (-875).
We discuss the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, why it happened, why Turkey is upset and the relationship of the Middle East to the Western powers.
*More on the Pit of Doom
*The Khashoggi Murder
*TE Lawrence and the Prince
*Sykes Picot and the West
*The Triassic Period
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Music provided by TRG Music, Livio Amato, A.A Alito and Blue Dot Sessions in conjunction with Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
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Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the second estimate for third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) held firm at 3.5%, matching the forecast. The median consensus expected the advance Q3 U.S. economic growth to come in at 3.3%, but upped the consensus for the second estimate to 3.5%.
The BEA recently released the final estimate for Q2 2018 GDP, which held firm at 4.2%. The “second” estimate for Q3 2018, based on more complete data, will be released on November 28, 2018.
“No doubt there are positives and negatives behind the headline GDP report,” Tim Anderson, analyst at TJM said. “The price index held unchanged at +1.7 while many were expecting a lower revision.”
“While Q3 GDP remained unchanged at 3.5%, a worsening trade deficit was counter balanced by a higher level of business investment; +2.5% from a previous reading of +0.8% during the third quarter.”
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
Released On 11/28/2018 8:30:00 AM For Q3(p):2018
Prior
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR
3.5 %
3.5 %
3.3 % to 3.7 %
3.5 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR
1.7 %
1.7 %
1.4 % to 1.7 %
1.7 %
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q change – SAAR
4.0 %
3.7 %
3.5 % to 3.9 %
3.6 %
[/su_table]
Indeed, as People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) reported on the quarter, business inventories have helped to offset a widening trade deficit. See more, here, here and here.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) gained 4.0% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9% (revised) in Q2. The average of real GDP and real GDI, increased 3.8% in the Q3, compared with an increase of 2.5% (revised) in Q2.
Consumer spending came in much stronger than the advance forecast anticipated, but it was downwardly revised to a still solid 3.6%.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.7% in Q3 juxtaposed to an increase of 2.4% in Q2. The PCE price index rose 1.5% juxtaposed to an increase of 2.0%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.5%, compared with an increase of 2.1%.
“While risks from a potential escalation of trade tensions negatively impacted inventories as well as the trade deficit, corporate pretax earnings rose 10.3% year over year, the largest rise in 6 years,” Mr. Anderson added. “GDI rose 4%, the best increase since 2014.”
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $76.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the second quarter.
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $7.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $16.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $66.2 billion, compared with an increase of $53.0 billion.
Rest-of-the-world profits increased $17.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $7.7 billion, and payments decreased $25.3 billion.
3D graphic concept for election projections in Mississippi. (Photo: AdobeStock/PPD)
Projection: Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith has defeated Democrat Mike Espy in the runoff election for U.S. Senate in Mississippi. The election was held to fill the seat vacated by Republican Senator Thad Cochran, who retired earlier this year for health reasons.
In the Magnolia State, if neither candidate wins an outright majority on Election Day, then the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. Below are the results from the first round of voting, clearly helping to underscore why the Republican was favored to win by the PPD U.S. Senate Election Projection Model.
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
Candidate
Party
Votes
Pct
Cindy Hyde-Smith*
Republican
368,536
41.5%
Mike Espy
Democrat
360,112
40.6
Chris McDaniel
Republican
146,013
16.5
Tobey Bartee
Democrat
12,707
1.4
887,368 votes, 98% reporting (1,753 of 1,797 precincts)
*Incumbent
[/su_table]
President Donald Trump visited the state on Monday to hold two rallies for Senator Hyde-Smith, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate this year. The first rally was held in Biloxi, located in Harrison County in the southeastern region of the state. Harrison went for the Republican candidate by roughly 20 points.
The second rally was in Tupelo, located in Lee County in the northeastern region of the state. It proved a Republican stronghold, backing the president’s pick with more than 67% of the vote.
It was the first time the president has ever held two rallies in one day or night for one candidate. President Trump and Republican Governor Phil Bryant both remain extremely popular in the state.
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
Candidate
Party
Votes
Pct
Cindy Hyde-Smith*
Republican
469,713
53.8%
Mike Espy
Democrat
403,280
46.2
872,993 votes, 99% reporting (1,774 of 1,797 precincts)
*Incumbent
[/su_table]
Despite the overwhelming Republican advantage in Mississippi, Ms. Hyde-Smith had a rough close to the campaign. A series of remarks were widely condemned as racially insensitive and led Democrats to believe that they might have a chance to defeat her in an upset.
Mr. Espy, a former congressman who served as the secretary of agriculture in the early Clinton Administration from 1993 to 1994, tried to seize on them and on Republican division. However, Chris McDaniel, who won 16.5% of the primary vote earlier this month, endorsed her in the general election.
With the last contest of the 2018 midterm elections wrapped up, the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate expands to 53 seats, the margin projected by the PPD U.S. Senate Election Projection Model.
Tom reviews some humorous stories that happened over the Thanksgiving weekend and then gets into the situation with the caravans and the border on today’s show.
*Can’t Get Good Help Pt 2
*Trump’s Border
*Tear Gas Or Pepper Spray
*Asylum or Invaders?
*To Infinity and Beyond!
Bumper Music:
Music provided by TRG Music, Livio Amato, A.A Alito and Blue Dot Sessions in conjunction with Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at 135.7 (1985=100) in November, down from 137.9 in October but near the all-time high.
The Present Situation Index improved marginally from an already elevated 171.9 to 172.7. The Expectations Index decreased from 115.1 last month to 111.0 this month.
“Despite a small decline in November, Consumer Confidence remains at historically strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased slightly, with job growth the main driver of improvement.”
“Expectations, on the other hand, weakened somewhat in November, primarily due to a less optimistic view of future business conditions and personal income prospects.”
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
Released On 11/27/2018 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2018
Prior
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
Consumer Confidence – Level
137.9
136.5
135.0 to 137.4
135.7
[/su_table]
The monthly Consumer Confidence Index conducted by Nielsen is based on a probability-design random sample. Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch, said the cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 13.
“Overall, consumers are still quite confident that economic growth will continue at a solid pace into early 2019,” Franco added. “However, if expectations soften further in the coming months, the pace of growth is likely to begin moderating.”
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved slightly in November.
Those saying business conditions are “good” rose slightly from 41.0% to 41.2%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 9.4% to 10.9%.
Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” rose from 45.4% to 46.6%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell from 13.4% to 12.2%.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future declined in November.
The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 26.3% to 22.5%. The percentage expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 7.2% to 8.8%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was somewhat mixed.
Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose marginally from 22.3% to 22.8%, while those anticipating fewer jobs also rose marginally, from 10.6% to 11.1%. That’s a net wash from the previous reading.
Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 24.7% to 21.5%. However, the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 8.2% to 7.8%.
A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for all 9 U.S. census divisions posted a 5.5% annual gain in September, down from 5.7% in the previous month.
“Home prices plus data on house sales and construction confirm the slowdown in housing,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index showed a 5.5% year-over-year gain, weaker for the second month in a row as 16 of 20 cities showed smaller annual price gains.”
The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both came in higher by 0.3% for the month-over-month. In September, 9 of 20 cities saw increases before seasonal adjustment, while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
The national HPI posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in September, before seasonal adjustments.
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
<td”> Released On 11/27/2018 9:00:00 AM For Sep, 2018
Prior
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
20-city, SA – M/M
0.1 %
0.3 %
0.2 % to 0.4 %
0.3 %
20-city, NSA – M/M
0.0 %
0.0 %
20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr
5.5 %
5.3 %
5.1 % to 5.6 %
5.1 %
[/su_table]
“On a monthly basis, nine cities saw prices decline in September compared to August. In Seattle, where prices were rising at double-digit annual rates a few months ago, prices dropped last month,” Mr. Blitzer added.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported larger gains, all cities boasting the biggest gains before suffering the largest losses 10 years ago.
The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.1% year-over-year gain, down from 5.5% in the previous month.
Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending September 2018 versus the year ending August 2018. Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In September, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 9.9% increase and Seattle with an 8.4% increase.
After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month gain in September.
“Sales of both new and existing single family homes peaked one year ago in November 2017. Sales of existing homes are down 9.3% from that peak. Housing starts are down 8.7% from November of last year,” Mr. Blitzer continued. “The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index dropped seven points to 60, its lowest level in two years.”
“One factor contributing to the weaker housing market is the recent increase in mortgage rates. Currently the national average for a 30-year fixed rate loan is 4.9%, a full percentage point higher than a year ago.”
A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)
Washington, D.C. – Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) finds U.S. house prices rose 1.3% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018. House prices are up 6.3% from Q3 2017 to Q3 2018.
[su_table responsive=”yes”]
Released On 11/27/2018 9:00:00 AM For Sep, 2018
Prior
Prior Revised
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
M/M change
0.3 %
0.4 %
0.3 %
0.3 % to 0.5 %
0.2 %
Y/Y change
6.1 %
6.3 %
6.0 %
[/su_table]
The FHFA HPI — sourced by home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in the monthly index for September from August.
“Home prices continued to rise in the third quarter but their upward pace is slowing somewhat,” said Dr. William Doerner, Supervisory Economist. “Rising mortgage rates have cooled down housing markets—several regions and over two-thirds of states are showing slower annual gains.”
The following content below the video reflects the FHFA press release.
Significant Findings
Home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the third quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2018. The top five areas in annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho 15.1 percent; 2) Nevada 15.0 percent; 3) Washington 10.6 percent; 4) Utah 10.0 percent; and 5) Colorado 9.2 percent. The areas showing the smallest annual appreciation were: 1) Alaska 0.2 percent; 2) North Dakota 1.0 percent; 3) Louisiana 1.5 percent; 4) District of Columbia 1.6 percent; and 5) Connecticut 2.2 percent.
Home prices rose in 99 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters. Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 20.1 percent. Prices were weakest in Honolulu (“Urban Honolulu”), HI, where they fell by 5.2 percent.
Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting an 8.9 percent gain between the third quarters of 2017 and 2018 and a 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter of 2018. Annual house price appreciation was similarly weak in the New England, Middle Atlantic, and West South Central divisions, where prices rose less than 5.0 percent between the third quarters of 2017 and 2018.
Background
FHFA’s HPI tracks changes in home values for individual properties owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac over the past 43 years using more than eight million repeat transactions. The “repeat-transactions” methodology constructs index estimates by statistically evaluating price appreciation (or depreciation) for homes with multiple values over time.
Kelli Ward, a rival of Sen. John McCain and candidate in the Arizona Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2018, speaks with a supporter of President Donald J. Trump. (Photo: Associated Press)
Dr. Kelli Ward announced her bid for chair of the Arizona Republican Party, The Arizona Republic reported on Monday. The two-time candidate for U.S. Senate offered a unifying message at the launch and vowed to “usher in an overwhelming 2020” by competing and winning at every level of elected office.
President Donald Trump will be at the top of the ticket in 2020, as well as another U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Jon Kyl, who was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to replace the late longtime Arizona Senator John McCain.
Dr. Ward, whom People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) interviewed in 2017, launched an unsuccessful primary bid against Senator McCain in 2016. She warned Arizonians that he wasn’t telling them the truth on either ObamaCare or the border.
While Senator McCain ultimately defeated Dr. Ward by the not-so impressive margin, 51.2% to 39.9%, he proved her warnings to be justified. Privately, and more publicly as of late, GOP lawmakers are pointing the finger at Mr. McCain for losing control of the U.S. House in 2018.
Despite claiming to have “led the fight to repeal ObamaCare,” vowing to continue to do so and “complete the danged fence,” Senator McCain voted against the “Skinny Repeal” and was one of the president’s fiercest critics on the border.
Armed with what voters saw as Mr. McCain’s betrayal, Dr. Ward ran again for the seat vacated by Jeff Flake, who backed out before suffering the embarrassment of loss.
Moderate Republicans argued Dr. Ward, who was the clear frontrunner against Senator Flake, couldn’t appeal to moderates and would lose Maricopa County. She received just 28% of the vote and former Rep. Martha McSally earned the Republican nomination.
Ms. McSally went on to lose Maricopa County and the U.S. Senate seat for the Republicans for the first time in 30 years.
“The Party of Lincoln and Goldwater should be one that is led by the grassroots,” Ward, 49, said in a statement to The Arizona Republic. “Unfortunately, over the last four years, the grassroots within the Republican Party have been silenced and disenfranchised both nationally and at the state level in Arizona.”
“Therefore, after much prayer and careful consideration, I have decided to run for chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. In this new era of Arizona Republican politics, it is time to finally unite our party.”
The Arizona Republican Party’s election for chair is scheduled for January 26 Chairman Jonathan Lines is expected to run for re-election.
Heather Mac Donald Sells The Diversity Delusion Like an Academic, Not a TV Personality
Heather Mac Donald, right, a Manhattan Institute Fellow and New York Times bestselling author, speaks to attendees at Metropolitan Republican Club in New York City on Wednesday, November 14, 2018. (Photos: People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)
Ms. Mac Donald is a dynamo of slight build and silver tongue that charges unapologetically head-on into subject matter most would prefer to avoid.
While others have made a career of chastising the PC Culture with well-versed examples of hypocrisy and self-serving intent, Mac Donald takes it to such a higher level of academic prosecution, minus the verbal and visual theatrics.
Equipped with a litany of academic studies at her fingertips, her delivery confidently exposes the dysfunction of diversity, as having become the end game, initially at “The University” and ultimately within large swathes of the corporate world.
This was not Mac Donald’s first appearance at the MetClub, and the venue was a setting where she was certainly at ease.
Attendees at The Metropolitan Republican Club, or The MetClub, wait for New York Times bestselling author Heather Mac Donald on Wednesday, November 14, 2018. (Photos: People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)
The club itself is a throwback, steeped in history, sporting an esteemed membership roster of political luminaries, dating back to the very early 1900s. Presidents Teddy Roosevelt and Richard Nixon were members, as was New York Governor Tom Dewey, Senator Jacob Javitz, and numerous NY City mayors, including Fiorello LaGuardia, John Lindsay (yes, he was originally a Republican), Rudy Giuliani, and Michael Bloomberg (yes, he was once a Republican also).
Set in a no-frills, federal-style townhouse in Manhattan’s upper east side, the club is a setting from vintage Americana. Traditional red, white and blue bunting adorns the ballroom perimeter, a perfect touch for what could easily be the backdrop of a Norman Rockwell painting, or a movie set for a mid 20th century patriotic revival.
Deborah Coughlin has served as president since 2015, and is the stalwart voice and promoter of the Metropolitan Republican Club. She has presided over a vibrant speaker series during her tenure that has included Ann Coulter, James O’Keefe, Ted Cruz, Newt Gingrich, Tucker Carlson, and Brandon Straka.
Rarely a dull moment!
This brings us back to Heather Mac Donald. Her full frontal indictment of what she coined “narcissistic victimology” addresses the failure of race- and gender-based diversity, no-holds barred. She even has the audacity to go right after what she terms the “campus rape myth”.
As if that wasn’t enough, it’s followed up by an indictment of the #MeToo movement’s “impossible premise”.
She makes this all work with hard facts produced by countless studies, real cases that have been unequivocally proven not just to have been erroneous but also to have produced sweeping false narratives of “delusional victimology”.
And if this isn’t enough, the majority of university faculty and administrators are not only complicit, but encourage and enable this victimhood ideology. This of course facilitates the hiring of more deans of diversity, thus expanding the size and scope of the University Administration.
There is no timidity in a Heather Mac Donald lecture.
She has total confidence in her convictions that all the craziness on college campuses — from anti-free speech crusaders to safe-space sympathizers to micro aggression madness, which all lead to the virus of victimhood — has to stop before it does any more longterm damage to society.
Just ask the students at Columbia University, who heard her speak the day prior. I’m sure she didn’t sugarcoat it one bit.
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