*Florida Fails Still
*Comrade Sinema
*The New Crops in Congress
*The Flake Boycott
*The Avenatti Show
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Closing Music
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U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ending November 10. While hurricane effects have had an impact, it’s only marginal and labor market remains very strong.
The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 213,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate increased marginally by 0.1% to 1.2% for the week ending November 3, a return to a very low rate still after a temporary decline to 1.1%.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending October 27.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 27 were in Alaska (2.2), New Jersey (1.9), Puerto Rico (1.8), California (1.6), Connecticut (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.4), Virgin Islands (1.4), District of Columbia (1.3), Illinois (1.3), Nevada (1.3), Rhode Island (1.3), and Washington (1.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 3 were in Michigan (+4,853), California (+2,792), Pennsylvania (+2,698), Ohio (+1,731), and Washington (+1,295), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-3,245), Missouri (-2,876), Florida (-1,216), Arkansas (-524), and Georgia (-380).
Reps. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., left, and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, members of the House Freedom Caucus, talk before a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing. (Photo: AP)
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Wednesday defeated Rep. Jim Jordan for the role of House Minority Leader. Mr. McCarthy, who was first elected to the U.S. House in 2006 and has served as the House Majority Leader since 2014, won decisively by a vote margin of 159 to 43.
He also received the support of outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., who saw his wing of the party defeated all over the map last Tuesday. Earlier this year, Speaker Ryan called Mr. McCarthy the “right person” to lead the party in the lower chamber.
While the California Republican has a closer relationship with both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, and will be ideologically closer agenda-wise to the latter than Mr. Ryan, he’s still seen as the corporate interest wing of the party.
His defeat of one of the most prominent members of the House Freedom Caucus, despite their overwhelming popularity among base voters juxtaposed to the Old Guard, is largely the result of favor-building.
Mr. McCarthy has long-spent his time in the U.S. House fundraising for those he called on for support, backing their pet projects, etc. It culminated in a failed bid for leadership in 2015, which forced Mr. Ryan, the party’s 2012 vice presidential nominee, to step forward to fill the role.
Meanwhile, Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wy., was elected Chair of the Republican Conference, making her the chair of the post her father filled some 30 years ago. Newly-elected Republican Senators were also in Washington, D.C., where the party also chose new leadership in the upper chamber.
John Barasso, R-Wyo., was chosen the new chair of the Republican Conference in the U.S. Senate, while Joni Ernst, R-Ia., is the new number two for the conference. In 2014, Senator Ernst became the first female Senator elected from Iowa.
Roy Blunt, R-Mo., is the new policy chair and Todd Young from Indiana is the new chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Ia., is the new president pro temp.
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, who was the first female to lead the Republican Party in four decades, congratulated the victors.
“The RNC looks forward to working with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as Congress continues to implement President Trump’s agenda,” Chairwoman McDaniel said. “Leaders McCarthy and McConnell, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Senate Majority Whip John Thune, and Republican Conference Chairs Liz Cheney and John Barrasso are committed to supporting policies that improve the lives of the American people.”
“Democrats must now put aside their obstruction and join Republicans to fight for the President’s pro-growth agenda.”
A man and woman discuss business collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) declined marginally by 0.1% to 2.2% in November, largely unchanged from October. The index has remained largely unchanged for the last 4 months — ranging from 2.1% to 2.3% over the last 6 months and 2.0% to 2.3% over the last 12.
That’s important to keep in mind when listening to mediates panic over tariffs.
The BIE measures the year-ahead inflationary expectations of businesses in the Sixth District. It’s also meant to inform about cost changes and insight into the factors driving business’ pricing decisions.
In October, the year-on-year rate for average hourly earnings shot up 0.3% to 3.1%, which was not reflected in the monthly 0.2% gain. Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported average hourly earnings, or wages, grew at the fastest pace since the Great Recession.
For the special question in the Business Inflation Expectations for August, firms gave their expectations regarding the expected year-ahead percentage change in their employees’ wages. The median expectation was for a 3% increase in wages over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.9% in the BLS report for that month.
For the special question in the Business Inflation Expectations for this month, firms provided an estimate of the percentage of their expected unit cost increase over the next 12 months they anticipate passing on to their customers. The “pass through percentage” was 75%, with roughly one quarter estimating their expected pass through percentage was higher than normal.
For the quarterly question, the majority of firms reported that they expect labor costs and non-labor costs “to put moderate to upward influence on their prices over the next 12 months.” Most firms see sales levels, productivity, and margin adjustments having marginal or even no influence on prices over the next 12 months.
Tom explains how elections and mass democracy are the new battlefield in control of governments; and how American elections are the battles in this new way to fight wars.
*Bipartisanship, Lawyers and the War
*Provisional Balloting
*Elections are Battles
*Who is Winning?
*Why is Clinton so Mad?
Bumper Music:
Additional music provided by Blue Dot Sessions in conjunction with Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Key with business words and rig equipment graphic icons relative to the oil and gas industry. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/JEGAS RA)
While most Major Market Averages, settled the day close to unchanged, there was plenty of price action in the oil sector, as well as a smattering of individual names. In a trading session filled with now familiar levels of volatility, the S&P 500 (^SPX) and NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) both gave up their late morning gains of better than +1%, and later recovered from moderate losses during the last hour to close basically unchanged, albeit with the smallest of final numbers settling in the red.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) traded in a 300 pt range to close -0.40% lower at 25,286. The 100 point decline in the DJIA was almost entirely attributable to Boeing (^BA) -$7.52 at 349.50, UnitedHealth (^UNH), -$3.16 at $269.22, and ~2 point declines from Exxon (^XOM), and Chevron (^CVX) in a heavily battered oil sector.
The DJ Transportation Average,+0.6% at 10,433 was the out-performer, despite giving up over half of what was a +1.7% gain at midday. The Transports have began to slightly outperform the last 2 weeks, and given their history of leading market turns the last few years, we’re going to keep these names front and center for signs that the lows for Q4 may be in.
Macro Events in Focus
In the aftermath of Mondays 2%-plus selloff, 2 macro stories were pervasive Tuesday. First, talk that Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK are close to a deal gave the market a boost during the morning as well as sparking a strong rally in the British Pound.
The rally in the Pound is worth watching, as the US Dollar actually found gravity Tuesday, after closing Monday at another 18 month high. Clearly, any sustained rally in the Pound could cap the move in the dollar, benefiting US stocks. We’ve been here before with Brexit negotiations, and it’s not surprising that enthusiasm faded during the afternoon, absent specifics.
Secondly, banter over the relentless decline in crude oil escalated during the afternoon. Tuesdays decline of -8% marks the 12th straight day of lower prices. With crude declining steadily for over 10 weeks, and the steepest decline hitting after 2 straight weeks of daily declines, there is more than a hint of capitulation in the air.
There is no doubt that the world is awash in oil, and that many professionals as well as part time punters, totally misplayed the Iran Sanctions trade with regard to oil. In mid August, with Oil at $80, the talk was of $100 crude by year end. Now with Brent at $65 and West Texas at $55, it begs the question of whether the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Here are just a few data points we picked up late in the day:
The USO ETF is 20% below its 50 day moving average. That’s a lot.
On a 14 day RSI metric, crude oil is the most oversold ever. EVER!
Nat Gas inventory is near a 15 year low heading into the winter heating season.
Nat Gas traded above $4 today.
A lot of energy traders were long crude oil and short nat gas. That trade was being unwound Tuesday, likely putting additional pressure on crude oil.
Now, we’re NOT in favor of the “falling knife” trade, but that last bullet point speaks loudly to “forced liquidation”. That being said, there is no reason that crude can’t go lower.
Remember trading 101: “Just because something is oversold, doesn’t mean it’s a buy!”
There is no doubt that savvy contrarians and value investors alike are getting alerts on their risk/reward models for solid names in the energy patch. In the interest of FullDisclosure, we DO NOT recommend individual trades or individual stocks, but rather highlight hot topics of the day, and occasionally opine on trends and aberrations that jump off the monitor.
Concerning the oil trade, the only statement we can make with complete certainty is to expect move volatility both in crude and single stock names in the sector.
“This is an Adults Only Trade”, on either side of the market.
The Early Line for Wednesday
U.S. Stock Index futures have already swung from Red to Green in very early morning trading as markets in Europe have recouped most of their early losses and the FTSE has actually gone green, 3 hours into their trading day.
Crude oil is trying to make a stand, trading modestly higher, although with what looks like little conviction so far. The weekly EIA Crude Inventory report typically released on Wednesday at 11:00 AM will be pushed to Thursday due to Monday being Veterans Day.
Markets concept depicting the American flag draped over the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Stocks started the week on a sour note with losses on Major Market Averages ranging from the S&P 500 (^SPX) down -2% to the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) losing -2.8%.
As highlighted in our note last week, volatility has become the one constant market dynamic in a market that throws around +/-1% moves like Jager shots at a Santacon bar crawl, while +/-2% moves only make the evening news if President Trump is blaming the decline of one of his favorite foils.
Unlike many market declines, where the market leaders and bellwethers hold up much better than the broad market for most of the decline, this selloff has featured the opposite. Whether it’s technology, financials, or diversified multinationals, it’s been the big marquee names that continue to contribute to a majority of the damage in the market averages.
Again, bellwether technology names led the decline, most notably Apple Inc (^AAPL), following cautious comments on revenue guidance from a major supplier. AAPL, -5% on Monday to $194.17, has declined -12.5% since its earnings report on November 1, when it stated in its conference call that it would no longer give monthly unit sales data for individual product lines.
Amazon Inc. (^AMZN) was a leading contributor to the selloff, losing 4%, to close at $1636.85, but still well above the October 29 close of 1538.88.
Financials were also a major source of investor angst.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (^GS) suffered its largest single day percentage decline since August 2011, losing -7.5% on Monday, and -10.8% over the last 2 days. Goldman closed at $206.05, right on its 200 day Moving Average, and its lowest level in 2 years. Goldman is embroiled in a massive scandal involving a billionaire financier in Malaysia and the 1MBD investment fund. Stay tuned on this, it’s only the 1st inning.
General Electric (^GE) is nowhere near the gold standard of industrial diversification it set for prior decades, but there is no way to sugarcoat losing 12% on its market cap in the last 2 days, and -21% month to date. Given, the challenges in any potential turnaround/restructuring are well publicized, this is still an iconic American brand with over 300,000 employees.
While GE is no longer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), and it’s price decline of 50% YTD has reduced it to a 2nd tier name at best in the market capitalization weighted S&P 500, it’s still very disturbing to watch the continual erosion of a former market leader.
Boeing (^BA) is today’s distress stock du jour, where the issue involves their lack of disclosure around a new flight control feature that went awry, potentially leading to at least 1 air traffic disaster. As BA stock trades in the mid $300s, double digit price moves do happen on occasion.
With declines during the morning ranging from -$7 to -$15, BA has clipped anywhere from 50 to 120 points off the Dow during trading Tuesday morning.
At its morning lows, combined with a loss of $12.30 on Monday, BA was -7% lower over the last day and a half. This story demands a lot more clarity. If the reality the error/omission by Boeing were as bad as the raw headline, my gut feeling is the losses would be much steeper than we’ve seen so far.
Two hours into trading on Tuesday, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite are higher by close to +1%.
Unconfirmed reports that the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK) are very close to an agreement on Brexit terms are the predominate positive fueling the morning rally. As we’ve been down this road with Brexit negotiations before, a “We’ll believe it when we see it” approach is warranted. There remain multiple moving parts among potential market influencers this week. Stay tuned.
File: Outside Escape to Vape, a brick-and-mortar e-cigarette and e-liquid vapor store in Gainesville, Florida on June 30, 2017. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)
But the folks who work on regulatory policy may get exposed to the most inane government policies (Fannie-Freddie mandate, EEOC rulings).
For example, consider how the government is undermining public health by going after e-cigarettes.
Sally Satel of the American Enterprise Institute offers a good introduction to the issue.
Strikingly, it is members of the public health establishment that have fanned the pessimism surrounding the battery-powered devices that deliver nicotine without the carcinogenic tar. One leading culprit is the Centers for Disease Control which refuses to acknowledge the steep risk reduction for smokers who switch to non-combustible tobacco, overlooks evidence of immediate gains in respiratory health when e-cigarettes are used as an alternative to smoking, and dramatizes as yet unrealized harm to children. …at the heart of this skepticism in the US is the FDA, who has devised an onerous rule that “deems” e-cigarettes to be tobacco products and thus subject to the same regulatory regime as combustible cigarettes. The rule…places undue regulatory burden and cost on vaping manufacturers. …the agency’s mandate for manufacturers to submit data prior to product approval is deeply misguided. Although patterns of youth uptake, flavor preferences, and nicotine level preferences are important data, they do not trump the benefit to adult smokers’ health. …The regulatory politics of non-combustible nicotine products stand as one of the great paradoxes in public health. While our health agencies now strongly champion harm reduction for opiate misuse, they are making it more and more difficult to improve and save the lives of smokers.
The Orange County Register is not a big fan of what’s been happening.
There’s a strange anti-vaping hysteria hitting governments. …The itch to treat vaping like smoking afflicting so many public health activists and government officials may be well-intentioned, but it is also misguided and harmful to the very goal of reducing smoking which these campaigners claim to champion. …Vapor products offer a way to consume nicotine without inhaling the lethal smoke that causes cancer and kills smokers. It has long been known that it is the smoke from burning tobacco, not the nicotine, that kills smokers. …Flavors are a critical ingredient to the success of tobacco harm reduction. According to a 2013 study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, of 4,618 vapers surveyed, more than 91 percent classified themselves as “former” smokers, with the majority saying flavor variety was “very important” to their efforts to quit smoking. The study also found the number of flavors a vaper used was independently associated with quitting smoking. Supporters of flavor bans argue these products appeal to children and will induce them to start smoking cigarettes. But the data fails to bear this out. A 2015 study from the Journal of Nicotine & Tobacco Research found nonsmoking teens’ interest in e-cigarettes was “very low” and didn’t change with the availability of flavors.
Looking at this debate motivated me to write an article on the story behind the story.
In an ideal world, the discussion and debate about how (or if) to tax e-cigarettes, heat-not-burn, and other tobacco harm-reduction products would be guided by science. …In the real world, however, politicians are guided by other factors. There are two things to understand… First, this is a battle over tax revenue. Politicians are concerned that they will lose tax revenue if a substantial number of smokers switch to options such as vaping. …Second, this is a quasi-ideological fight. Not about capitalism versus socialism, or big government versus small government. It’s basically a fight over paternalism, or a battle over goals. For all intents and purposes, the question is whether lawmakers should seek to simultaneously discourage both tobacco use and vaping because both carry some risk (and perhaps because both are considered vices for the lower classes)? Or should they welcome vaping since it leads to harm reduction as smokers shift to a dramatically safer way of consuming nicotine?
I used an analogy from the world of statistics.
…researchers presumably always recognize the dangers of certain types of mistakes, known as Type I errors (also known as a “false positive”) and Type II errors (also known as a “false negative”). …The advocates of high taxes on e-cigarettes and other non-combustible products are fixated on the possibility that vaping will entice some people into the market. Maybe vaping will even act as a gateway to smoking. So, they want high taxes on vaping, akin to high taxes on tobacco, even though the net result is that this leads many smokers to stick with cigarettes instead of making a switch to less harmful products. …At some point in the future, observers may joke that one side is willing to accept more smoking if one teenager forgoes vaping while the other side is willing to have lots of vapers if it means one less smoker.
On the issue of taxes, here’s a 2017 map from the Tax Foundation that shows state excise taxes on vaping.
There has been some pushback against the regulators.
The electronic cigarette industry and its free-market allies are seeing fresh opportunities to ease federal rules on e-cigarettes… More than a dozen conservative groups wrote to congressional leaders…, calling on them to add a pro-vaping provision to a spending measure… A rule issued…by the Obama administration “deems” e-cigarettes to be tobacco products and allows the FDA to retroactively examine all tobacco products on the market in February 2007. …industry advocates say the costly FDA approval process would force most e-cigarette companies to shut down. …The notion of “harm reduction” is the main argument pro-vaping forces use in their push to remove the requirement that tobacco companies retroactively prove their e-cigarettes are safe.
For what it’s worth, the FDA has kicked the can down the road, basically postponing its harsh new regulatory regime until 2022.
In the world of business, that’s just around the corner. Especially since investors and entrepreneurs have relatively long time horizons.
So let’s look at some evidence that hopefully will lead the bureaucrats at the FDA to make rational decisions.
The main argument, as noted in this column in the Wall Street Journal, is that vaping is the most effective way of reducing smoking.
Two major government surveys show that regular e-cigarette use by people who have never smoked is under 1%. Some 4.2% of high-school seniors report smoking conventional cigarettes daily, according to Monitoring the Future, and 9.7% reported smoking at least once in the previous month. These are “the high-risk youth” we need to worry about… Overheated worries about youth vaping are threatening to obscure the massive potential benefits to the nation’s 38 million cigarette smokers. Two million have already quit thanks to e-cigarettes. Vaping products are already the most widely used quit-smoking tool.
And smoking is the real danger to health, as Veronique de Rugy notes in a Reason article.
Tobacco kills 480,000 people a year in the United States. Yet when an innovative alternative that delivers nicotine and eliminates 95 percent of the harm of smoking is available, the wary Food and Drug Administration fails to embrace this revolutionary lifesaving technology. All in the name of the children, of course. Using e-cigarettes, known as vaping, has been around long enough for respected health authorities to conclude after many studies that it is eminently safer than smoking cigarettes. Britain’s Royal College of Physicians called any attempts by public officials to discourage smokers from switching to vaping “unjust, irrational and immoral.” …no one wants teens to vape, but we certainly don’t want them to smoke cigarettes and die an agonizing death later in life. As a parent, I tell my children that they shouldn’t do either. But the truth is that I know, as do they, that if they are going to do something as stupid as committing so much of their money to that sort of activity, vaping is the way to go. The bottom line is that government alarmists should back off. The first step is for the FDA to stick to its plan to postpone regulation until 2022 and create a clear pathway for the permanent approval of these products. It would allow the vaping companies time to establish their products as a safer alternative to cigarettes.
US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress. …Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016. …Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.
E-cigarettes do not contain tobacco. They contain nicotine, a chemical derived from tobacco and other plants. Plain English was never a deterrent, though, to regulators on an empire-expanding mission. The Food and Drug Administration this week rolled out new regulations on e-cigarettes based on a 2009 law giving the agency power over products that “contain tobacco.” …Plain English also does not authorize inclusion of e-cigarettes under the 1998 Master Settlement Agreement, the deal struck between the cigarette industry and 46 states that settled a bunch of lawsuits by imposing a government-run cartel to jack up the price of cigarettes (in the name of curbing consumption, naturally) and distribute the excess profits to the states and a handful of now-plutocrat trial lawyers. …Lovers of freedom and enemies of regulatory overkill do not exaggerate when they say FDA rules are designed to murder numerous small manufacturers and thousands of “vape” shops that account for about half the electronic-cigarette business.
…who gets a say in what the WHO does is a hotly contest matter. Only thirty members of the public and selected members of the media are treated to limited, stage managed press conferences. Nations like China, with state-owned tobacco monopolies, are warmly welcomed, but anyone with the slightest connection to a private tobacco industry is shown the exit. Large pharmaceutical companies generously fund conference attendees, while their anti-tobacco products like Nicorette gum compete with products that the WHO views unfavorably, like electronic cigarettes. The secretive nature of the conference didn’t go over well with India’s tobacco farmers. After a few minutes of protest outside the convention, 500 farmers were corralled by police and detained inside this local police station. …it’s hard to understand why a $4 billion organization like the WHO feels threatened by the average Indian farmer who lives on $3 a day… Expanding its authority beyond tobacco control, e-cigarettes and vape products now find themselves potentially subject to a worldwide ban. Delegates to the convention have expressed support for “a complete ban on the sale, manufacture, import and export of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems”.
WHO bureaucrats are not the only ones to misbehave. Here’s a column from the Wall Street Journal exposing misbehavior in the United States.
There are many reasons to criticize the FDA’s action, but its most fundamental flaw—and the one that our legal foundation raises in three lawsuits on behalf of Ms. Manor and nine others—is that the rule was finalized by someone without authority to do so. The rule was not issued or signed by either the secretary of health and human services or the FDA commissioner, both Senate-confirmed officials. Instead, it was issued and signed by Leslie Kux, a career bureaucrat at FDA. …The attempted delegation of rule-making authority to someone not appointed as an “Officer of the United States” violates one of the most important separation-of-powers clauses in the Constitution. …Political accountability matters; that’s why the Framers included the Appointments Clause in Article II of the U.S. Constitution.
Last but not least, here’s a must-watch video on this issue from Prager University.
I’m not a big fan of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), mostly because it delays the adoption of life-saving drugs and denies options for critically ill people.
Where are our priorities in the way we run our country? We seem to be more focused on blame rather than in addressing the real cause of our problems in America.
*Tide Box Wine
*On Voting and Lawsuits
*On Fires and Elections
*On Fatties and Men
*On Globalism and Nationalism
Bumper Music:
Additional music provided by Blue Dot Sessions in conjunction with Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October posted a reading of 107.4, holding on to its two-year streak of record highs. Small businesses have been key to the consecutive three percent-plus growth the U.S. economy has posted for the first time since the Great Recession, and have added significant numbers of new workers to the now-strong labor market.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said small business owners believe the current period is a good time to significantly expand their operations, are planning to invest in more inventory and report high sales.
“For two years, small business owners have expressed record levels of optimism and are proving to be a driving force in this rapidly growing economy,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “The October optimism index further validates that when small businesses get tax relief and are freed from regulatory shackles, they thrive and the whole economy prospers.”
Seasonally adjusted, 30 percent of owners think the current period is a good time to expand substantially, citing the economy (72 percent) and strong sales (14 percent). Nine percent of those who believe it is a good time to expand cited the political climate with 17 percent who believe it is a “bad time” to expand blaming politics. Although politics matter, the index indicates that economic factors, good or bad, are the main drivers of expansion decisions.
The net percent of owners who plan to invest in inventory increased 2 points to a net 25%, the 21st positive month since January 2017. This is due to the owners viewing current inventory stocks as “too low” falling to a net negative two percent, historically a very “tight” condition. A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past 3 months, unchanged from the net in September.
“Thanks to a number of factors, including the federal government’s loosening grip on the private sector, the U.S. regained the top spot in the World Economic Forum’s ranking as the most competitive country during the month of October. An unburdened small business sector is truly great for employment and the general economy,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “October’s report sets the stage for solid economic and employment growth in the fourth quarter, while inflation and interest rates remain historically tame. Small businesses are moving the economy forward.”
Job creation remained solid in October for small businesses at a net addition of 0.15 workers per firm, as reported in last week’s NFIB monthly jobs report. But the skills gap continues to plague the labor market.
In October, 38% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, matching the record high set in September. Another 60% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire with 88% of them reporting few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Thirty-four percent (34%) reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining needed employees, only 3 points off from September’s record high.
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