Live Blog: Florida Recount Results – Updates, Drama and Analysis
A live blog for tracking the latest on the Florida recount for Election 2018, including updates, results and analysis.
A live blog for tracking the latest
A live blog for tracking the latest on the Florida recount for Election 2018, including updates, results and analysis.
A live blog for tracking the latest
A papal silhouette with the Vatican flag and colors conceptualize the pope and the Catholic Church. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Vatican asked the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops to delay any votes on proposed steps to combat the sexual abuse scandal rocking the church.
The president opened the conference’s national meeting on Monday with a stunner of an announcement, declaring it will delay any such votes for at least several months.
Cardinal Daniel DiNardo, of Galveston-Houston, confirmed the delay was requested by the Vatican, which asked that the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops to hold off until after the global meeting on sex abuse in February.
In July, Pope Francis removed U.S.Cardinal Theodore McCarrick after church investigators deemed an allegation that he groped a teenage altar boy in the 1970s to be credible. In August, a grand jury report in Pennsylvania claimed decades of abuses and cover-ups spanning six dioceses, alleging more than 1,000 children had been abused over the years by roughly 300 priests.
However, Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano recently accused Pope Francis and other high-ranking Vatican officials of a “cover-up” involving accusations of sexual misconduct against the Roman Catholic Church.
In the letter, Archbishop Vigano called on Pope Francis to resign, saying he and others were weaving a “conspiracy of silence” around former Cardinal McCarrick, whom the Pope forced to resign.
McCarrick, 89, retired as archbishop of Washington in 2006. Vigano alleges that former Pope Benedict XVI knew of the accusations against him and had McCarrick placed restrictions on him in both 2009 or 2010.
How are Americans reacting? Well, it depends on their faith, according to the latest Gallup poll.
Overall, Americans’s views of Pope Francis have soured somewhat, with 53% now holding a favorable opinion of the pontiff, down from 66% in August. However, U.S. Roman Catholics held firm, with 79% still holding a favorable opinion, essentially unchanged from last month (78%).
According to another recent poll, nearly 3 out of 4 (73%) American adults think the Roman Catholic Church has a serious problem with sexual predators. Rasmussen Reports finds only 15% think the media is overhyping the church’s sex problems.
When the sexual abuse scandal was uncovered in 2002, the image of John Paul II fell from 86% in 1998 to 61% in 2002. Still, he’s more popular than Pope Benedict XVI. In 2010, Gallup’s final reading on Benedict found 40% of Americans viewed him favorably and 35% unfavorably.
The Vatican asked the U.S. Conference of
Frustrated with the lack of leadership by the Republicans in Congress, and the sad state of our government, Tom lashes out at the GOP and government in general on today’s show.
*Veteran’s Day
*You Can’t Get Good Help
*Snipes and Broward
*McSally and Maricopa County
*CA Government and Malibu
*Leadership in Congress
Bumper Music:
Black Roses- Kalypso
Additional music provided by Blue Dot Sessions in conjunction with Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Frustrated with the lack of leadership by
Markets concept depicting the American flag draped over the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street. (Photo: AdobeStock)
For at least a year leading into the Midterm Elections we heard from multiple media pundits and political prognosticators about the tsunami-like Blue Wave that would bring a titanic shift of power to the Democrat side of the isle in both houses of U.S. Congress.
While the final result was a split decision, we’ve seen numerous mentions of the Green Wave that actually took place.
The Green Wave metaphor is a play on words used by some to highlight the historic amount of money spent in the U.S. House and Senatorial elections, and by others bringing attention to at least a half a half dozen State referendums legalizing marijuana that range from medical use to recreational decriminalization.
The resignation of Jeff Sessions as Attorney General, an ardent opponent of legalization, has fueled speculation that some relaxation of marijuana laws at the national level is likely in the offing before the 2020 Presidential Election cycle kicks into gear.
In reality, the most convincing we saw this week was the massive Wave of Optimism that washed upon the financial markets following the election results.
Investors wasted no time Wednesday in stamping their approval on the election results as stocks started the day with close to a +1% gap and climbed steadily higher throughout the day. Major Market averages finished the session with gains ranging from +2.15% on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^SPX), to +2.65% on the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC).
For a historical perspective, stocks had their single best day of trading following a midterm election since 1982. Let’s see, who has in their first term as President in 1982?
That’s right. Ronald Reagan. What an amazing historical parallel.
The rally was broad based Wednesday, as both the technology and transportation sectors, laggards of late, joined in. Volumes were brisk, and market breadth was solid with advancing issues beating decliners by better than 3 to 1 on the NYSE and better that 2 to 1 in the NASDAQ market.
On Thursday, stocks held nearly all of their gains, shrugging off a round of selling mid afternoon, following the Federal Reserve policy statement reiterating the strength of the economy, and the likelihood of 2 to 3 more interest rate hikes looking out to June 2019. It’s worth noting that bonds were weak, with the 10 year treasury yield closing just above 3.2%.
The obvious question is, and I got it at least a dozen times mid week, is Why the big rally in stocks with the Republicans losing the House? I think there is really a 2 pronged answer:
First, markets were set up for a post election relief rally, almost regardless of the outcome. Most professional investors would like to minimize the political “noise” as much as possible, focusing on the macro economy and prospects for earnings and revenue growth for companies they follow and/or own. Also, markets had “priced in” Republicans holding the Senate while likely losing the House as the most likely outcome of the midterm elections.
Second, away from overly simplistic market axioms that “gridlock is good”, it is still under appreciated by many, the positive effect from structural reforms enacted by the Trump Administration over the last 20 months:
Regulatory reform,
Significantly lower corporate taxes,
Repatriation of corporate cash overseas,
Individual tax reform,
Reworking of outdated Trade Agreements
These are five major accomplishments in less than 2 years that are contributing to a rate of economic growth previously thought to be unattainable. Most importantly, none of these structural reforms can be overturned by a Democrat held House while President Trump has an expanded majority in the Senate.
Even if a Democratic House prevents the Trump administration from advancing additional pro growth legislation, just going on cruise control the next 2 years with the positive initiatives already in place will likely produce economic growth at a rate above the consensus view.
Make no mistake, the stock market will not be without hiccups and hurdles.
Getting accustomed to gradually higher rates immediately comes to mind. Conversely if GDP continues to grow at a rate higher than base interest rates and inflation, and if Corporate profits can adjust to rates of YoY growth in the mid teens, Financial markets, albeit with a few adjustments along the way will embrace it.
While the final result was a split
Sunshine Battleground Poll Florida Election Graphic. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Florida Governor Rick Scott filed a lawsuit accusing Broward County Election Supervisor Brenda Snipes of trying to steal the election for U.S. Senate. Two days after the polls closed on Tuesday night, Democratic candidates Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum received 46,000 more votes that were “found” in those counties.
UPDATE: A Broward County judge found Broward County Election Supervisor Brenda Snipes to be in violation of state public record laws. She ordered the county’s elections chief to turn over an accounting of how many ballots were cast in the county, broken down by category, to Governor Rick Scott’s campaign for the U.S. Senate by 7 p.m. Friday.
“I won this election for the benefit of the state,” Governor Scott said at a press conference. “The will of the people is not going to be thwarted.”
While Governor Scott was always headed for a recount, he and Rep. Ron DeSantis had clear margins of victory for both men on election night. Mr. Gillum conceded on Election Day, but his advisor posted on social media that they were aware of at least 20,000 “more” ballots.
That’s odd considering Democrat election supervisors in Broward and Palm Beach counties claimed to have no idea at the time.
Ms. Snipes is a repeat offender. In 2016, a federal judge found she improperly mishandle and destroyed ballots. A signed affidavit by a witness claims scores of ballots were being filled in around the clock leading up to Election Day in 2016.
Her list of offenses, which Senator Marco Rubio called “incompetence at the very least,” go on. Senator Rubio flatly tweeted county officials stole the race for agricutlural commissioner, which will also be headed for a recount.
“This is not a third-world dictatorship,” known DNC operative lawyer Marc Elias claimed. “We don’t let people seize ballots when they think they are losing.”
The Scott campaign noted that the two counties are in violation of both federal and state law. Mr. Elias of Perkins Coie, the same man and firm used to funnel funding from the Clinton campaign to the shadowy smear firm Fusion GPS, filed a federal lawsuit that would ease requirements for signatures on mail-n ballots.
“Until today, the Nelson campaign has been working on voter fraud behind the scenes in secret,” Jackie Schutz Zeckman, Scott’s campaign manager said. “With today’s filing, their desperation has driven them to ask the federal courts to allow voter fraud. They are asking courts to overrule election officials and accept ballots that were not legally cast.”
“Every vote that was legally and verifiably cast prior to the polls closing at 7:00 pm on Tuesday should of course be counted. Any votes that mysteriously showed up after that deadline are invalid.”
[su_document url=”https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Scott-v-Snipes-Lawsuit-Florida-Election-2018.pdf” width=”720″ height=”860″]
Florida Governor Rick Scott filed a lawsuit
Tom is tired of the lack of professionalism and ethics in today’s world, from journalists to celebrities, and our political process itself.
*The Press Conference
*The Blue Failure
*Sessions is Gone
*Celebrities, Cash and Failure
*Incompetence, Malfeasance and Miscreants
Today’s Bumper Music provided in connection with Blue Dot Sessions from Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Tom is tired of the lack of
On the left, supporters take a photo of President Donald Trump in Tampa, Florida, while businessman Mike Braun, right, thanks supporters after winning the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Indiana. (Photos: PPD/AP)
President Donald Trump and the Republican Party lost control of the newly-drawn U.S. House of Representatives. The lower chamber has garnered the most media attention and is the focus of their favorite election forecasters.
That’s unsurprising, given how badly their upper chamber models performed versus the Model-Only projection on the PPD Senate Election Projection Model.
Republicans have officially ousted three incumbent Democratic senators — Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. Unless hell freezes over, they are poised to net the most U.S. Senate seats for an incumbent party’s first-term midterm since 1934.
That midterm cycle, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Democratic Party gained 9 net seats in the U.S. House, but a stunning 9 seats in the U.S. Senate. In 2002, the Republican Party under George W. Bush gained 8 net seats in the U.S. House and just 2 in the U.S. Senate.
Let’s take a look at the very long table below (sorry). This is the history of midterm election results from 1934 to 2018. President Trump’s first-term midterm verdict is estimated for both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, though we are confident the projection for 4 net seats will hold, more on that to follow.
[su_table responsive=”yes” class=”az-ev-district-party-totals”]
| Year | Lame Duck | President | Party | House | Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1934 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Democrat | 9 | 9 | |
| 1938 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Democrat | -71 | -6 | |
| 1942 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Democrat | -55 | -9 | |
| 1946 | Harry S. Truman | Democrat | -45 | -12 | |
| 1950 | Yes* | Harry S. Truman | Democrat | -29 | -6 |
| 1954 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Democrat | -18 | -1 | |
| 1958 | Yes | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Democrat | -48 | -13 |
| 1962 | John F. Kennedy | Democrat | -4 | 3 | |
| 1966 | † | Lyndon B. Johnson | Democrat | -47 | -4 |
| 1970 | Richard Nixon | Republican | -12 | 2 | |
| 1974 | ± | Gerald R. Ford (Nixon) | Republican | -48 | -5 |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter | Democrat | -15 | -3 | |
| 1982 | Ronald Reagan | Republican | -26 | 1 | |
| 1986 | Yes | Ronald Reagan | Republican | -5 | -8 |
| 1990 | George Bush | Republican | -8 | -1 | |
| 1994 | William J. Clinton | Democrat | -52 | -8 | |
| 1998 | Yes | William J. Clinton | Democrat | 5 | 0 |
| 2002 | George W. Bush | Republican | 8 | 2 | |
| 2006 | Yes | George W. Bush | Republican | -30 | -6 |
| 2010 | Barack Obama | Democrat | -63 | -6 | |
| 2014 | Yes | Barack Obama | Democrat | -13 | -9 |
| 2018 | Donald Trump | Republican | -29 to -35 | 3-4 |
[/su_table]
In Florida, incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has been defeated by popular Republican Governor Rick Scott, albeit the margin stands at 0.4%. But the senatorial contest is headed for a recount. State law requires that be completed by Saturday.
Again, we do not expect this to change the outcome barring any shenanigans and Mr. Nelson will become the fourth incumbent Democrat to be defeated that night. The final five precincts in Miami-Dade are in, and Governor Scott is receiving more than 40% of the vote.
For those watching the governor’s margin, it’ll shrink only slightly when the last 5 precincts in Miami-Dade — which have been added to the U.S. Senate vote total — are also included.
The presence of third-party candidates helped to widen Governor-elect Ron DeSantis’ margin over leftwing Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum. Mr. Gillum conceded and, knowing what checkmate looks like in Florida, Mr. Nelson was reportedly going to conceded until the party and money called.
Regardless, it’s been counted and estimated by the model, and it’s not enough.
Source: PPD Senate Election Projection Model
When all the votes are counted in Arizona, the PPD Election Projection Model projects Martha McSally the winner by a margin ranging from 0.2% to 0.7%, depending on the spreads in the estimated outstanding vote. There is still a slight chance Kyrsten Sinema ekes out a 0.2% victory if the vote is heavily lopsided in her favor.
We do not expect that to happen. In fact, it’s also possible Rep. McSally’s lead increases slightly.
Given the location of the remaining vote and the standing margins, a rough net of 22,000 in Pima County (20K net) and Santa Cruz (2K net) will be offset by remaining vote for Rep. McSally in Yavapai, Pima and Yuma.
If it holds, President Trump and Republicans would post a 5-seat gain, netting 4 with Senator Dean Heller losing in Nevada. Even if one of those projections don’t hold, it would still be the largest midterm gain in the U.S. Senate for a first-term incumbent president and party since 1962.
John F. Kennedy and the Democratic Party gained 3 seats in the 1962 midterm elections. But with that year all but officially beat, we’d have to go back to FDR, a president the nation once viewed to be their father during times of desperate need.
While it may be hard for his critics to swallow, it’s a historic feat. More notably, it’s one we can confidently argue never would’ve happened without the president touring the country. No one motivates the Republican base like Donald J. Trump and, given the historic levels of opposition turnout, the Republican Party would’ve been wiped out.
Instead, the result was an average defeat in the U.S. House and an above average victory in the U.S. Senate for President Trump and the Republican Party.
President Trump and the Republican Party are
U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions at the Justice Department in Washington, D.C., on July 20, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday Attorney General Jeff Sessions will be replaced with his Chief of Staff Matthew Whitaker. The rumored replacement, which really ramped up on Tuesday, comes just one day after the Republicans lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“We are pleased to announce that Matthew G. Whitaker, Chief of Staff to Attorney General Jeff Sessions at the Department of Justice, will become our new Acting Attorney General of the United States,” President Trump said. “He will serve our Country well…. We thank Attorney General Jeff Sessions for his service, and wish him well! A permanent replacement will be nominated at a later date.”
Mr. Whitaker will serve as the acting-attorney general until the president names a replacement, which will subsequently require confirmation from the U.S. Senate. On Tuesday, while losing the U.S. House, the PPD Senate Election Projection Model (Most Accurate Again) projects Republicans will hold a 53-seat majority.
Sources tell PPD that President Trump requested his resignation before he gave a spirited news conference earlier in the morning. Mr. Sessions has long earned the ire of the president and House Republicans attempting to conduct oversight of abuse to secret government surveillance programs, which surround officials behind the so-called Russia probe.
The attorney general stepped aside to allow Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appoint Special Counsel Robert Mueller, despite clear violations to Justice Department (DOJ) guidelines.
Democrats oppose Mr. Whitaker as acting-deputy attorney general, including the man who will become the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.
“Americans must have answers immediately as to the reasoning behind @realDonaldTrump removing Jeff Sessions from @TheJusticeDept,” he tweeted following the accountant. “Why is the President making this change and who has authority over Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation? We will be holding people accountable.”
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., demanded Mr. Whitaker recuse himself.
“Given his previous comments advocating defunding and imposing limitations on the Mueller investigation, Mr. Whitaker should recuse himself from its oversight for the duration of his time as acting attorney general.”
Mr. Sessions was bullied into recusing himself from the special counsel investigation, which was purportedly investigating collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. There is no such evidence, and Mr. Mueller has moved on to process crimes, typical campaign violations, and obstruction of justice.
The case has been weak. And the outgoing Republican majority was racing the clock to expose abuses to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which included spying on members of the Trump campaign under false pretenses. Not only did soon-to-be chairman Adam Schiff know the dossier was funded by political opposition, but didn’t report that to the Republican majority.
But Democrats, and those behind the genesis of the Russia probe, now feel emboldened after the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections, though Republicans expanded their majority in the U.S. Senate. It may not be as easy to bully Mr. Whitaker as it was Mr. Sessions.
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday Attorney
Graphic for the Generic Ballot, otherwise known as the Generic Congressional Ballot or Generic House Vote. (Photo: Adobe Stock/PPD)
Election 2018 will be a split decision when all the votes are counted, with Democrats retaking control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 2010 and Republicans expanding their majority in the U.S. Senate.
As of Wednesday morning, Democrats have won 220 seats, two more than needed (218) for control of the lower chamber. Five more races in which the Democrat holds a narrow lead are still too close too call, and another 3 (AR-01, CA-48, and WA-01) are leaning toward the Democrat with still large chunks to report.
In the U.S. Senate, the PPD Election Projection Model scored it’s first victory over the competition and mixed-model — which includes public polling — in the Hoosier State. Republican businessman Mike Braun easily defeated incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly.
In Missouri and Tennessee, Josh Hawley and Marsha Blackburn made short work of Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and former governor Phil Bradesen, despite public media polls showing tight races.
The PPD Election Projection Model’s one and only projected miss came in Nevada, where incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller was defeated by Jacky Rosen. As we’ve explained, the race was always going to come down to the margin for the incumbent among independents. Historically, he has outperformed. But last night, Mr. Heller looked more like Mitt Romney in 2012, a high-single digit lead that wasn’t even enough to carry Washoe County.
In Arizona, the race between Republican Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema is too close to call, though the model continues to favor the former. In Florida, PPD and other media outlets have called both the race for governor and U.S. Senate in favor of the Republican candidates, Senator-elect Rick Scott and Governor-elect Ron DeSantis.
Defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is pushing for a recount. PPD does not expect it to change the outcome.
The PPD Election Projection Model has done it again. Even with the miss in Nevada or near in Arizona, the model was once again the most accurate upper chamber forecast on the Internet, or anywhere for that matter.
This year, we added “Slightly” to the projection scale and showed readers the impact flawed media public polls can have on a model. We gave our Model-Only projections, Mixed-Model projections including public polls, and the live model still currently running.
The Model-Only was the most accurate gauge for the night.
Election 2018 was a split decision, with
Tom goes on a rant today about all of the divisiveness in today’s elections and how we are doing it all wrong in America.
*An ‘Historic’ Election
*Republicans Offers
*Democrat Offers
*We’re Doing it Wrong
*People Don’t Vote
Today’s Bumper Music provided in connection with Blue Dot Sessions from Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Tom goes on a rant today about
