A discussion about real world economics versus the fantasyland economics taught in most economics schools, and the reality of debt and financing on today’s show.
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Closing Music
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U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Initial jobless claims came in a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ending October 27, a decline ahead of the monthly jobs report. The entire month of weekly reporting has offered very strong labor market data.
The 4-week moving average came in at 213,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 211,750 to 212,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.1% for the week ending October 20. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 20 declined 7,000 to 1,631,000.
This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since July 28, 1973 when it was 1,603,000.
The 4-week moving average was 1,640,750, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 11, 1973 when it was 1,627,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,646,500 to 1,647,000.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending October 13.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 13 were in Alaska (1.9), New Jersey (1.9), Puerto Rico (1.7), California (1.6), Connecticut (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.4), the District of Columbia (1.3), Illinois (1.3), Nevada (1.3), and the Virgin Islands (1.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 20 were in Florida (+3,987), Georgia (+3,668), New Jersey (+836), New York (+638), and Texas (+620), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-1,061), Tennessee (-900), California (-829), Kansas (-482), and Wisconsin (-352).
Gillum Staffer: “None of the Programs” Promised “Would Happen” But “That’s Not for [Voters] to Know”
Project Veritas released an undercover video in which a campaign staffer for Andrew Gillum used racial slurs to describe white people in Florida. Mr. Gillum, who is under federal investigation for corruption while serving as mayor of Tallahassee, is in a tight race against Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis.
Omar Smith, who claims to have went to college with Mr. Gillum, jokes as he admits the candidate cannot and has no intention of fulfilling his campaign promises. He also said the Gillum campaign needs to appeal to “white guilt” to turn out the vote, and that Florida is a “f—ked up state” of “crackers.”
Project Veritas has also recently released videos on Democrats Phil Bredesen in Tennessee and Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri. People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) was unable to independently verify the video.
“What we found in the Gillum campaign was just what we found in Missouri, Tennessee and Arizona, a candidate lying to the voters he needs to win the election,” James O’Keefe, founder and president of Project Veritas Action said.
This is not the first staffer to be caught in a less-than flattering situation.
Manny Orozco-Ballestas was released from the campaign after a local blogger circulated several of the former staffer’s purported past Twitter posts, including one calling for the execution of President Donald Trump.
In another tweet, the staffer used an expletive to refer to a male appendage in a tweet to Jacob Engels, the publisher of the rightwing fringe blog Central Florida Post.
“If you weren’t so ugly I would put my [expletive] in your face,” the user tweeted in April 2012, according to Mr. Engels. “If you can take a [expletive] you can take a job,” they allegedly tweeted that December.
SUV parts are fabricated in the stamping facility at the General Motors Assembly Plant on June 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) eased slightly to 58.4 in October, but still indicates solid growth “at a healthy rate this month.” A decline in new orders offset a rise in output, delivery times and employment.
“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer continued to revert back towards trend-levels in October, cooling off after a hot and unsustainable run last year,” said Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators. “Production continues to be restrained by issues between firms and their suppliers, reflected by Supplier Deliveries at a 14-year high, while the latest raft of tariffs on Chinese goods appears to be exacerbating uncertainty across firms.”
The MNI Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Barometer is at its lowest reading in six months, or since April, and on the year, it was down 10.7%. While that’s the biggest year-over-year fall since December 2015, it’s important to note that the monthly gauge hit record highs since that period, including multi-year record-high levels of employment.
“Despite beginning the final quarter on a softer footing, activity remains robust relative to recent years,” the report notes. “The headline index still sits above its five-year average, with the latest moderations possibly reflecting a reversion to more familiar levels after a series of strong performances over the past 12 months.”
Unfinished work also fell sharply in October, with order backlogs dropping to a level not seen since April. That was when it had fallen below the neutral mark for the first time in 13 months. On the flip side, average wait times on key materials gained.
The Supplier Deliveries indicator rose to its highest level in over 14 years in October, with some firms attributing the increasing wait times to under-staffed suppliers.
Hiring also intensified significantly in October. The Employment indicator was up for the first time since July and firms continued to cite the skills gap. Recruiting both skilled and unskilled workers , while others prioritized retention of their existing workforce.
Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)
The ADP National Employment report finds the U.S. private sector added 227,000 jobs in October, easily beating the 178,000 median forecast. Wall Street was only looking for 189,000 and the gains were widespread.
Analysts for ADP said the tight labor market is putting upward pressure on wages and benefits.
“Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.”We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way. We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits employees desire.”
Small business with 1-49 employees added 29,000 private sector jobs, while mid-sized (50-499) and large (≥500) added 96,000 and 102,000 jobs, respectively. The goods-producing sector added 38,000 and the service-providing sector added 189,000.
“The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said. “Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions.”
Natural Resources & Mining added 8,000 private sector jobs, while Construction and Manufacturing both added 17,000.
Happy Halloween! We discuss the relevance of the Constitution and its principles on today’s show.
*Halloween Stinks Now
*The 14th Amendment
*The 2nd Amendment
*On Constitution Originality
*Last Word: Military on the Border
Today’s Bumper Music provided by the artist A. A. Alito, in connection with public domain music from Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose again in October, coming in at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September.
The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month.
“Consumer Confidence increased in October, following a modest gain in September, and remains at levels last seen in the fall of 2000 (September 2000, 142.5),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions remains quite positive, primarily due to strong employment growth.”
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in October. The percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” increased from 39.9 percent to 40.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 9.6 percent to 9.2 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 44.1 percent to 45.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 14.1 percent to 13.2 percent.
“The Expectations Index posted another gain in October, suggesting that consumers do not foresee the economy losing steam anytime soon,” Franco added. “Rather, they expect the strong pace of growth to carry over into early 2019.”
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future increased further in October. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 25.8 percent to 26.3 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined, from 8.3 percent to 7.4 percent.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a probability-design random sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 18.
We focus too much on the price of things and not enough on the cost of things, as we discuss our growing dependency on government on today’s show.
*Grow Up
*Stickers on a Van
*Insurance or Handout
*Cost Versus Price
*Last Word: The Bully Pulpit
Today’s Bumper Music provided by the artist A. A. Alito, in connection with public domain music from Freemusic.org.
Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise
The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.
To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps
All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.
No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.
Vice President Mike Pence campaigns with John James, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan on October 30, 2018. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)
Grand Rapids, MI: John James, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, is looking to pull off a come-from-behind upset over incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow.
Mr. James, a 37-year-old West Point graduate and decorated veteran from Operation Iraqi Freedom, has narrowed his deficit from the high-teens to a 6-point race with just 8 days left before the 2018 midterm elections.
(Correction: An earlier version of this article mistakingly identified Mr. James as 41. He is 37, not 41).
Closing that gap against the three-term senior senator from Michigan is no doubt a heavy lift. But Mr. James was brimming with confidence in front of a crowd of 2000-plus at the DeltaPlex Arena in Grand Rapids Monday night.
He had good reason to be, with support from a couple GOP heavyweights. The Lincoln Day event was hosted by the Kent County GOP, at which they presented Peter F. Secchia with the Honoring Lifetime Achievement Award.
Senator David Perdue, R-Ga., introduced Mr. James to a raucous ovation that included chants of “John James” and “Let’s Fly”, a play on the candidate’s rallying cry of “Let’s Fly Michigan.” Mr. James was backed up by Vice President Mike Pence, whom he introduced following a strong 25 minute campaign speech with the conviction of delivery rarely heard from 1st time politician.
Even to the casual observer, Mr. James has immense potential on the political scene, regardless the outcome of this, his first campaign. Besides being photogenic at the GQ level, he has podium presence well beyond his years and the poise to casually chat with a couple dozen plus selfie seekers after the event was well over.
Make no mistake, this was not a Trump Rally, but clearly the White House and Republican strategists at the national level view this race, as a potential upset special beyond the five democrat held Senate seats already in their crosshairs that include Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana and Montana.
Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican senator since Spencer Abraham served only one term from 1994 to 2000.
Ironically, he lost his reelection campaign in 2000 to — you guessed it — Debbie Stabenow, after having a 10-point lead in the polls during mid October that year. Yes, political upsets do happen in Michigan, just ask President Trump.
He won the state by 12,000 votes in 2016, the first Republican presidential candidate to carry The Great Lake State since 1988.
UPDATE: After revisiting the state of the race, which includes recent public and private polling shows Mr. James quickly closing the gap, the PPD U.S. Senate Election Projection Model revised its projection in the The Wolverine State. The projection is now Leans Democrat, down from Likely Democrat.
Worth noting, candidates strength — a variable used by the projection model including articulation, ideology, fundraising prowess etc — has always been a strong variable for Mr. James. But candidates have to get their message out to capitalize on some of those strengths. For Mr. James, late is definitely better than never. Win or lose, we and others should expect him to be a prominent future voice for the Republican Party.
Supporters take photo and video of President Donald Trump during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People’s Pundit Daily)
The campaign for President Donald Trump put $6 million behind an ad buy to make this closing argument to voters: “We can’t go back.” The 60-second ad will run on national broadcast, cable TV networks and in digital ads online through Election Day.
“Today, we’re launching a national TV ad that makes the closing sale to the American people to support GOP candidates in the midterm election,” said Brad Parscale, Campaign Manager for Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. “The message conveys optimism in the direction of our country and offers a vivid warning that only by electing Republicans on November 6 can we ‘choose the right future’ for our children.”
The Trump campaign said last week the president is “all-in” to ensure Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House and expand their majorities in the U.S. Senate. The president has held nearly two dozen rallies for candidates across the country on his national campaign tour.
The dramatic ad targets one of the key voters who will swing the election next week and points to the economic successes under a U.S. Congress and White House controlled by Republicans.
It depicts a working, suburban mother who is reflecting on the bright future for her family and the nation, as she remembers a tougher time before the 2016 election.
She notes “how far we’ve come” now that “things are starting to change,” but warns that “the future worth fighting for is not guaranteed” as she chooses to vote Republican in the midterms.
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the U.S. economy is on track to grow at an annual rate of 3% or greater for the first time since 2005. The advance estimate for third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 3.5%, beating the consensus forecast.
The ad placement, which is one of the largest investments the Trump campaign has made to preserve GOP majorities in the U.S. House and Senate, aims to remind voters of those economic gains.
“It speaks to all Americans to get out and vote for the GOP so President Trump’s booming economy and inspirational changes for hard working American families can continue in the long run,” Mr. Parscale concluded.
To build up the resources needed for difficult races, President Trump and Vice President Pence have appeared at dozens of candidate and GOP committee fundraisers throughout the midterm campaign season. Overall, spending by the Trump campaign will total over $20 million on the midterm elections.
Last week, the Trump campaign made a direct transfer of $3 million to the Republican National Committee (RNC) to assist in the final two weeks of campaigning nationwide. This follows direct contributions made by the Trump campaign in August to 107 House and Senate campaigns totaling $214,000.
“In the battleground districts and states, the president’s approval rating has risen considerably,” PPD Election Projection Model and Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “It certainly can’t hurt Republicans and, in fact, we’ve found measurable bumps for candidates after the president’s rallies.”
“During this final week, his visit will be requested in more states and districts than he can visit.”
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