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Wednesday, January 15, 2025
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Markets

Markets concept depicting the American flag draped over the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Markets concept depicting the American flag draped over the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Stocks staged a vigorous rally Tuesday after an indecisive start to the week, as equity investors cheered steady interest rates, strong corporate earnings and bullish data on the jobs market.

Well before the opening bell, investors were greeted by positive earnings reports from 3 members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI); Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) and UnitedHealth (UNH). These 3 blue chips finished with gains of +3%, +2% and +4% respectively. Not bad for what was basically the 2nd day of the Q3 earnings season.

An added boost came 30 minutes into trading as the JOLTS report from the Department of Labor showed August job openings hit 7.15 million, a record level since this report began 18 years ago.

Combined with interest rates leveling off at 3.15% on the 10 year treasury, well below last weeks highs, investors and traders were suddenly presented with a much more friendly backdrop than what had inspired the steep 2 day decline last week.

Stocks rallied from bell to bell, with large cap, small cap, and all sectors from technology to emerging markets, to electric utilities participating in the rally. The result was one of the most impressive days for market internals all year, as Advancing issues trounced decliners by nearly 6 to 1, and Up Volume led Down Volume by 4.5 to 1.

Major Market Averages finished with gains ranging from +2% to +3%, as the .DJI, S&P 500 (.INX), and NASDAQ Composite all regained their 200 day moving averages after trading below that benchmark during the 2 day plunge last week. While the Russell 2000 gained +2.8%, it remains slightly more than 1% below its 200 day moving average of 1620. The Russell 2000 has had the steepest decline of the major averages, declining over -11% in 6 weeks from its August 31 high of 1740.

Given, this was but 1 day of market action in what will be a blizzard of Q3 earnings and macro data over the next 2 and a half weeks. Still, combined with the relief rally from last Friday we’ve now recouped more than half of last weeks decline in the last 3 days.

After the close, the Q2 earnings parade continued with high profile reports from Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), CSX Corp (CSX) and IBM. All but IBM traded higher after hours following their earnings, highlighted by impressive revenue gains of +11% for UAL, +14% for CSX, and +34% for NFLX.

It’s only Tuesday! The real test will be if the market can build on today’s gains the remainder of the week.

The Early Line

While Asian markets and most of Europe are playing “catch up” with the strong rally in the US on Tuesday, stocks in the US are likely to start the day moderately lower. IBM is -~4% in early trading following a shortfall in top line revenue in their Q3 earnings report, putting some pressure on DJIA futures. Netflix, NFLX; and United Airlines, UAL; are trading +8% and +5% higher respectively in response to a brighter earnings picture.

On the Macro side of the equation, we’ll get a report on crude oil inventories at 10:30 AM and minutes from the September FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM. The FED minutes will no doubt be closely parsed for any signs of concern over trade tensions and/or a higher rate environment. Regardless, expect more volatility the remainder of the week.

Stocks staged a vigorous rally Tuesday as

Economy

A collage graphic concept for industry and labor. (Photo: AdobeStock)

A collage graphic concept for industry and labor. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday the number of job openings in the U.S. hit a record high in August, the fourth record in two years. Under the Trump Administration, the BLS report has surpassed 7 million for the first time ever in U.S. history.

In August 2017, the number of job openings in the U.S. set new record at 6.2 million. That record was broken again nearly a year later in June, rising to 6.7 million. Then, in September 2018, the July number of job openings in the U.S. set yet another record, rising to 6.9 million.

Now, the number of job openings reached a series high of 7.1 million on the last business day of August 2018. Not only is this the first time it’s ever been above 7 million, it’s the first time job openings have exceeded the number of persons unemployed, ever in U.S. BLS history.

The job openings rate was 4.6%. The number of hires in August also reached a series high of 5.8 million, and the hires rate was 3.9%.

The number of total separations was 5.7 million and the total separations rate was 3.8%. The number of quits was unchanged at 3.6 million and the quits rate was 2.4%. While the number of layoffs and discharges ticked up to 1.8 million in August (+176,000), the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2%. The number of other separations was little changed in August at 332,000.

Worth noting, the Labor Department (DOL) issued big upward revisions to previous jobs reports over the last couple of months. If the same is done for the latest Employment Situation report, then the labor market will look even brighter than this report indicates. The unemployment rate last month fell to 3.7%, the lowest since December 1969.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported

Economy

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported builder sentiment inched higher to 68 in October, slightly beating the 67 forecast. The Housing Market Index (HMI) has been flat at solid levels, but this is the first rise in the index since July.

New home sales have also been flat this year, though existing home sales have declined. The report this morning could signal a strengthening in residential construction investment.

Methodology

The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices for these three key single-family series. The first two series are rated on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor and the last is rated on a scale of High/Very High, Average, and Low/Very Low. A diffusion index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(Good-Poor+100)/2” to the present and future sales series and “(High/Very High – Low/Very Low + 100)/2” to the traffic series. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.

Based on this calculation, the HMI can range between 0 and 100.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)

Economy

American Manufacturing Sector Graphic Concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

American Manufacturing Sector Graphic Concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Industrial production rose by 0.3% in September, slightly beating the consensus forecast and posting gains for the fourth consecutive month. Manufacturing production rose 0.2%, and the previous reading of 0.2% was revised higher to 0.3%.

Manufacturing represents almost 3/4 of all industrial production, and has grown annually at about 3.0% at face value. Since this report tracks volumes, when factoring in the rate of inflation, growth is closer to a very strong 6%.

Motor vehicles continue to be a key area strength, rising 1.7% in September for a 7.0% on–the-year rate. Selected hi-tech has also been strong, up 0.6% in the month for a yearly 6.9%.

However, the manufacturing gain was fueled by gains in motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies show up to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April.

Excluding the motor vehicles and parts, factory output was unchanged.

While the output of utilities was unchanged, the index for mining rose 0.5% and has moved up in each of the past eight months. At 108.5% of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.1% higher in September than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged at 78.1%, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

Industrial production rose by 0.3% in September,

Video

News stories about nonsense dominate the day. Today, we will talk about some of them, including Senator Elizabeth Warren’s fraudulent claim to Cherokee heritage.

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Today’s Bumpers:

I Have a Dream- Abba
God’s Gonna Cut You Down- Johnny Cash
United We Stand- Brotherhood of Man
Half Breed- Cher
Indian Reservation- Paul Revere and the Raiders

Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise

The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.

To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps

All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.

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News stories about nonsense dominate the day.

Politics

Swampy Director of Security for Senate Intel Committee Admits to Lying to FBI About Disclosing Information to Reporter

James A. Wolfe, of Ellicott City, Maryland, is a former staff employee of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI).
James A. Wolfe, of Ellicott City, Maryland, is a former staff employee of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI).

James A. Wolfe, the longtime director of security for the Senate Intelligence Committee, pleaded guilty Monday to making false statements to federal agents. Put plainly, the former committee employee selectively leaked classified and incomplete information to The New York Times, in a manner intended to politically damage President Donald Trump.

Worth noting, Big Media and lawmakers claimed the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) was conducting the “serious investigation” into Russia and the 2016 election. The House Intelligence Committee run by Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., is almost single-handedly responsible for actual oversight that led to unveiling of abuses of secret spying programs.

Their counterparts in the U.S. Senate — specifically, Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C, and Ranking Member Mark Warner, D-Va. — have done little but get caught up in their own Russian ties and propose limited free speech through social media and other venues.

Wolfe, 57, of Ellicott City, Maryland, pleaded guilty Monday to one count of making a false statement to special agents of the FBI during the course of an investigation into the unlawful disclosure of classified national security information.

The guilty plea was announced by Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers, U.S. Attorney Jessie K. Liu for the District of Columbia, and Special Agent in Charge Timothy M. Dunham of the Counterintelligence Division of the FBI’s Washington Field Office.

Wolfe was indicted in June 2018 on three false statements charges. However, under the plea agreement he reached with federal prosecutors, the government will move to dismiss the remaining counts at sentencing in December.

“At the time Wolfe made the false statement to the FBI, he was the Director of Security for the SSCI, a position he held for more than 28 years,” the Justice Department (DOJ) said in a statement. “As SSCI Director of Security, Wolfe was entrusted with receiving, maintaining, and managing classified national security information provided to the SSCI by the Executive Branch of the United States.”

A statement of offense filed at the hearing revealed the FBI opened an investigation in April 2017 into the unauthorized disclosure of classified national security information that had appeared in a specific article published by a national news organization. Under Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the federal government has opened more cases against leakers than ever before.

However, it is also true that politically-motivated leaking had become unprecedented under the Trump Administration.

In December 2017, the FBI interviewed Wolfe, who was asked specifically about whether he had been in contact with any reporters and, if so, who those reporters were, and what were the nature and extent of those contacts and the means by which those contacts occurred.

On October 16, 2017, and again on October 24, 2017, Wolfe provided Ali Watkins at The New York Times with non-public information concerning a witness who had been subpoenaed to testify before the SSCI. Wolfe also admitted making false statements to the FBI about his contacts with three additional reporters, including Ms. Watkins.

The charge of making a false statement to special agents of the FBI is a felony punishable by a statutory maximum of five years in prison and potential financial penalties. The maximum statutory sentence is prescribed by Congress and is provided here for informational purposes.

DOJ said sentencing of the defendant will be determined by the court based on the advisory Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors. The Honorable Ketanji Brown Jackson will hand it down on December 20.

The investigation into this matter is being conducted by the FBI’s Washington Field Office. The case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Jocelyn Ballantine and Tejpal S. Chawla and Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Laura Ingersoll of the District of Columbia, with assistance from the Counterintelligence and Export Control Section, National Security Division of the U.S. Department of Justice.

James Wolfe, the longtime director of security

Politics

The Cherokee Nation issued a scathing statement on Monday in response to Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., releasing a DNA test claiming Native American heritage.

“A DNA test is useless to determine tribal citizenship. Current DNA tests do not even distinguish whether a person’s ancestors were indigenous to North or South America,” Cherokee Nation Secretary of State Chuck Hoskin Jr. said. “Sovereign tribal nations set their own legal requirements for citizenship, and while DNA tests can be used to determine lineage, such as paternity to an individual, it is not evidence for tribal affiliation.”

As the People’s Pundit pointed out on Twitter, the initial math reported by The Boston Globe, was incorrect. The paper corrected their claim that Senator Warren might be 1/512 Native American, which she still questionably used as proof for her claim.

“But the generational range based on the ancestor that the report identified suggests she’s between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American,” the paper wrote in a correction following criticism of their math. “The report notes there could be missed ancestors.”

While that’s true, it’s also a greatly exaggerated connection. The Globe cited the results as proof she had Native American ancestry “in the range of 6-10 generations ago.”

If the results are generally accurate, it would mean her Native American heritage is as low as .09%. According to a study conducted in 2014 by 23andMe.com, which was covered by The New York Times, it’s less than the average Native ancestry for European-Americans (0.18%) and African-Americans (0.8%).

Senator Warren, who aspires to be president and intends to run for the 2020 Democratic nomination, understands the unsupported claim has legs as a negative story. As a candidate in 2020, there will be political exposure in the general election against President Donald Trump even if her Democratic rivals don’t use it, themselves.

But for the Cherokee Nation said Senator Warren’s attempt at political expediency “makes a mockery out of DNA tests and its legitimate uses while also dishonoring legitimate tribal governments and their citizens.” It is not the first attempt by the The Boston Globe to cover for her, which ended up calling the claim into serious question.

SOURCE: LEGAL INSURRECTION

Cherokee genealogist Twila Barnes uncovered a newspaper clipping from the Muskogee Times Democrat dated August 17, 1906. It’s a story about Senator Warren’s great grandfather, John H. Crawford, who was identified in the story as white. Mr. Crawford wasn’t Native American, but he shot one.

The clipping also offered further proof to debunk the story about her parents eloping. The local paper refers to Senator Warren’s mother’s family as white.

Nevertheless, the Cherokee Nation blasted the move as “useless” and political.

“Using a DNA test to lay claim to any connection to the Cherokee Nation or any tribal nation, even vaguely, is inappropriate and wrong. It makes a mockery out of DNA tests and its legitimate uses while also dishonoring legitimate tribal governments and their citizens, whose ancestors are well documented and whose heritage is proven. Senator Warren is undermining tribal interests with her continued claims of tribal heritage.”

President Trump has mocked the unsupported claim to Native American heritage, calling her “Pocahontas” while criticizing her far-left policies on the campaign trail.

The Cherokee Nation issued a scathing statement

Economy

Employees have short meeting in the warehouse to check business inventory levels of goods. First in first out. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Employees have short meeting in the warehouse to check business inventory levels of goods. First in first out. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The U.S. Census Bureau reported new manufacturing and trade statistics for August 2018, and business inventories a big boost for third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Worth noting, the strength of business inventories are helping to offset the widening trade deficit, which was falling during tariff and trade negotiations.

In the last report, there were big revisions to previous estimates, all of which are a net positive for Q3 GDP. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported Q4 GDP held firm at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve upped its forecast for 2018 and the GDPNow model estimate was revised to 4.0% on October 15.

[su_table responsive=”yes”]

Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Inventories – M/M change 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.7 % 0.5 %

[/su_table]

Sales

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,461.9 billion, up 0.5% (±0.1%) from July 2018 and was up 7.8% (±1.2%) from August 2017.

Inventories

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,960.8 billion, up 0.5% (±0.1 percent) from July 2018 and were up 4.2% (±1.2%) from August 2017.

Inventories/Sales Ratio

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August was 1.34. The August 2017 ratio was 1.39.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported new manufacturing

Video

Is society more or less civil than it has been? Are we headed toward civil war as some suggest? Tom examines the issue on today’s show.

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*Journalist or Activist
*Leslie Stahl’s Interview
*The Call for Incivility
*Celebrity Culture
*Last Word- First Man

Today’s Bumpers:

Tie a Yellow Ribbon- Tony Orlando and Dawn
More Than a Feeling- Boston
Money Changes Everything- Cyndi Lauper
14 Years- Guns and Roses
Times Like These- Glen Campbell
Times Are A-Changin’- Bob Dylan

Closing Music
http://www.hulkshare.com/praktikos/dark-nights-rise

The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners, we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.

To help our show out, please support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/LibertyNeverSleeps

All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are commentary, and of educational purposes, or de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.

No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.

Is society more or less civil than

Economy

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at 21.1, an unusually strong reading for the month of October and stronger than the 18.8 forecast. The forecasts ranged from 17.0 to 21.4.

Roughly 36% of firms reported conditions had improved in October, while just 15% reported conditions worsened. The new orders index and the shipments index both indicated strong growth and a pickup in that growth, with the former index moving up 6 points to 22.5 and the latter 12 points to 26.3.

New orders came in at the highest level since June of last year.

Unfilled orders decreased, inventories held steady, and delivery times continued to lengthen.

Firms remained largely but moderately optimistic about the 6-month outlook.

The index for future business conditions was little essentially unchanged at a solid 29.0, and the indexes for future new orders and shipments pointed to continued solid growth. Employment was expected to increase in the months ahead, and the indexes for future prices remained elevated. The capital expenditures index came in at 16.0, and the technology spending index was 9.2.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in

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