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The Euro model (ECMWF) forecasts Tropical Depression Michael to make landfall as Hurricane Michael at the Florida Panhandle along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The model above tracks over a 240-hour period beginning the morning of Monday, October 8, 2018.

Update: For the model tracking over a 240-hour period beginning the 8:00 PM EST, or the evening of Monday, October 8, 2018, click here.

The consensus for the models anticipates Michael will strengthen at least to a Category 2, with Category 3 potential. Florida Governor Rick Scott issued Executive Order 18-276 declaring a state of emergency in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Hamilton, Suwannee, Lafayette, Dixie, Columbia, Gilchrist, Levy and Citrus counties

“Tropical Storm #Michael is strengthening and it is almost a hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, tweeted after the morning advisory. “Hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of the Gulf Coast.”

700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Advisory

“A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday.

Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).”

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time: D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH (National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
(National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida.

H/T: Tropical Tidbits

The Euro model (ECMWF) forecast update for

Democrats have been very successful profiting off America’s divisions. How they do it is the topic for the day on Liberty Never Sleeps.

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*How I Knew
*The Point of a Republic
*The Politics of Division
*Our Failing Cities
*Special Interest Groups
*Making it About Kavanaugh

Today’s Bumpers:

My Sharona- The Knack
Red Solo Cup- Toby Keith
Little Girl- Syndicate of Sound
Fly Like an Eagle- Steve Miller Band
That’s The Way- Spin Doctors
Jane- Jefferson Starship

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Democrats have been very successful profiting off

I’ve advocated for some of the President’s policies, but I’ve never defended Donald Trump when he’s personally attacked.

That’s partly because I’m a policy wonk rather than political pundit, but also because many of the attacks seem justified. Indeed, his boorish behavior is one of the reasons I thought he would lose the presidential race.

Today, though, I’m going to defend Trump. Albeit only because of my disdain for the death tax.

To be more specific, the New York Times published a major hit job last week that asserted the Trump family played all sorts of games – and perhaps even broke the law – to minimize gift taxes when Trump’s father was alive and to minimize death taxes when he passed away.

The president…received at least $413 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real estate empire, much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s. President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud, that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents… Much of this money came to Mr. Trump because he helped his parents dodge taxes. He and his siblings set up a sham corporation to disguise millions of dollars in gifts from their parents, records and interviews show. Records indicate that Mr. Trump helped his father take improper tax deductions worth millions more. He also helped formulate a strategy to undervalue his parents’ real estate holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars on tax returns, sharply reducing the tax bill when those properties were transferred to him and his siblings.

That meant less money went to Washington (hopefully helping to starve the beast).

The president’s parents, Fred and Mary Trump, transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate then imposed on gifts and inheritances. The Trumps paid a total of $52.2 million, or about 5 percent, tax records show.

The article implies the Trump family broke the law, though both the IRS and state government accepted the tax return.

The line between legal tax avoidance and illegal tax evasion is often murky, and it is constantly being stretched by inventive tax lawyers. There is no shortage of clever tax avoidance tricks that have been blessed by either the courts or the I.R.S. itself. The richest Americans almost never pay anything close to full freight. But tax experts briefed on The Times’s findings said the Trumps appeared to have done more than exploit legal loopholes. They said the conduct described here represented a pattern of deception and obfuscation, particularly about the value of Fred Trump’s real estate, that repeatedly prevented the I.R.S. from taxing large transfers of wealth to his children.

There’s not much ambiguity in my reaction to this report. I think the death tax is both immoral and economically misguided. It’s a terrible example of double taxation and it drains job-creating capital from the private economy.

The correct rate for the death tax is zero, so I’m glad the Trump family did everything possible to minimize the amount of money grabbed by Washington.

I’m embarrassed that death taxes are worse in the United States than they are in Venezuela.

Sadly, not everyone shares my perspective. Some folks are even using this NYTstory as an excuse to make the death tax more onerous.

Here are some excerpts from a story in the Hill.

Democrats are calling for changes to the estate tax following a bombshell news report detailing how the Trump family navigated the tax code to protect the family’s financial assets. …”We need to look at the estate tax and certainly the issue that is raised by this investigation about the undervaluation of assets and gifts and the use of the various devices,” Rep. Lloyd Doggett (Texas), the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Tax Policy, who called for hearings on the matter. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said it was time to reexamine the loopholes. …Democrats say their interest in closing the loopholes are not new.

The last sentence in that excerpt is true. Obama wanted to make the death tax worse. So did Hillary.

And I’m disgusted that there are people in the business of financial planning who support the death tax since it creates business for them.

This awful levy should be repealed. Yesterday, if possible.

The correct rate for the death tax is zero, so

Mike Pompeo, first the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) before State Department nominee, left, with President Donald J. Trump, right. (Photo: AP)

Mike Pompeo, first the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) before State Department nominee, left, with President Donald J. Trump, right. (Photo: AP)

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Japan, North Korea, South Korea and China to push for a second nuclear summit between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un. Last June, the two men held the first-ever nuclear summit between the U.S. and North Korea after more than six decades of hostility.

UPDATE: Mike Pompeo: U.S., DPRK “Pretty Close” in Talks for Second Trump-Kim Summit

From October 6-7, he met in Tokyo, Japan, with Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Kon. On October 7, Secretary Pompeo and Special Representative Stephen E. Biegun met with Chairman Kim and Kim Yo-jong, First Vice Director of the Korean Workers’ Party Central Committee.

“Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo held productive discussions with Chairman Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang Sunday,” State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert said in a statement. “They discussed the four elements contained in the U.S.-DPRK Singapore Summit Joint Statement signed by President Trump and Chairman Kim.”

“They also discussed the upcoming second summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim and refined options for the location and date of that next summit.”

In Singapore, Chairman Kim agreed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. In total, President Trump and Chairman Kim agreed to the four following elements:

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

  1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

  2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

  3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

  4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

Since the Singapore Summit, North Korea’s behavior has been up for debate, though it’s not debatable that the intercontinental ballistic missile tests have ceased. The State Department also said Chairman Kim invited inspectors to visit the Punggye Ri nuclear test site to confirm that it has been irreversibly dismantled.

Secretary Pompeo departed Pyongyang on October 8 and immediately headed to South Korea to discuss the meeting with President Moon Jae-in. He also attended a working dinner with Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha.

“I would like to thank you deeply for visiting Pyongyang in the morning and coming straight to Seoul afterwards to share the outcome of your trip,” President Moon said. “And I dearly hope that your latest visit, as well as the upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit, which I hope will be happening soon, will make an irreversible and decisive progress in terms of complete denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula as well as the peace process.”

At the working dinner, Secretary Pompeo and Foreign Minister Kang re-affirmed their commitment to the U.S.-ROK Alliance. They also stressed the U.S. and South Korea should continue close coordination with Japan in order to maintain a unified response to North Korea.

“Secretary Pompeo and Chairman Kim also agreed to instruct their respective working-level teams to meet soon to intensify discussions on the key remaining issues to deliver on the Singapore Summit Joint Statement,” Ms. Nauert, the State Department spokesperson added. “President Trump looks forward to continuing to build upon the trust established with Chairman Kim in Singapore and anticipates meeting again soon.”

Secretary Pompeo will meet with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing on October 8, to discuss the nuclear summit, as well as other bilateral, regional and global issues.

On his trip overseas, Secretary of State

Senator Susan Collins, R-Me., gave a speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate Friday announcing she would vote to confirm U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. It was a remarkable display of intellectual elegance, delivered with artful precision.

It was beautiful to watch, a lot more beautiful than watching female celebrities getting arrested for egregious behavior disguised as “protests.” It also made me proud to be a woman, given those celebrities and others in the pop culture spotlight appear hellbent on convincing everyone we favor anthropological regression.

Senator Collins did not shrink away from the seriousness of the moment or allow emotion and passion to cloud her reason. She held Lady Justice’s hand, stood between the mob and the U.S. Constitution, and defended all of our rights codified in the founding document.

I implore readers to not simply listen to media sound bites, but the speech in its entirety, above. It is worth the time, and it is historic. The speech was well-researched and, unlike too many in the upper chamber, she took her role to advise and consent seriously. The same cannot be said of Senate Democrats.

Mr. President, the five previous times that I’ve come to the floor to explain my vote on the nomination of a justice to the United States Supreme Court, I have begun my floor remarks explaining my decision with a recognition of the solemn nature and the importance of the occasion. But today we have come to the conclusion of a confirmation process that has become so dysfunctional, it looks more like a caricature of a gutter-level political campaign than a solemn occasion.

My Translation: We have turned what was intended to be a tradition of honorable deliberation into a TV-MA-rated embarrassment.

There is a sadness in Senator Collins’ opening statement. It is evident.

The President nominated Brett Kavanaugh on July 9. Within moments of that announcement, special interest groups raced to be the first to oppose him, including one organization that didn’t even bother to fill in the judge’s name on its pre-written press release. They simply wrote that they opposed Donald Trump’s nomination of “XX” to the Supreme Court of the United States. A number of senators joined the race to announce their opposition, but they were beaten to the punch by one of our colleagues who actually announced opposition before the nominee’s identity was even known.

My Translation: This was premeditated obstruction that ended with character assassination. It will take a very long time before the collective Republican mind is comfortable making good faith efforts to reach across the aisle without being suspicious of the evil machinations of the Democratic Party.

The smear against U.S. Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh is truly a testimony to the man’s character. In order to survive orchestrated opposition of this magnitude, one could reasonably conclude Justice Kavanaugh’s character is pristine.

This will not soon be forgotten. The American left has shown they have no boundaries on their behavior. All lines are to be crossed, at all costs and no matter the consequences. They will not think twice about who they hurt, just as long as the end justifies the means.

Since that time, we have seen special interest groups whip their followers into a frenzy by spreading misrepresentations and outright falsehoods about Judge Kavanaugh’s judicial record. Over-the-top rhetoric and distortions of his record and testimony at his first hearing produced short-lived headlines, which although debunked hours later, continued to live on and be spread through social media. Interest groups have also spent an unprecedented amount of dark money opposing this nomination. Our Supreme Court confirmation process has been in steady decline for more than 30 years.

One can only hope that the Kavanaugh nomination is where the process has finally hit rock bottom. Against this backdrop, it is up to each individual senator to decide what the Constitution’s advice and consent duty means. Informed by Alexander Hamilton’s Federalist 76, I have interpreted this to mean that the president has broad discretion to consider a nominee’s philosophy, whereas my duty as a senator is to focus on the nominee’s qualifications as long as that nominee’s philosophy is within the mainstream of judicial thought.

My Translation: Senator Collins evidently believes Democrats have hit rock bottom. However, I know that they can go even lower than this. This is not rock bottom for the American left. Since the left lost this battle, they will now up the ante. The Democratic Party has turned the process for a judicial promotion into a punishment.

Mr. President, I understand both viewpoints. This debate is complicated further by the fact that the Senate confirmation process is not a trial. But certain fundamental legal principles—about due process, the presumption of innocence, and fairness—do bear on my thinking, and I cannot abandon them.

Never before have we threatened the most basic principle of justice and fairness, the presumption of innocence. At the risk of being dramatic, this alone should scare the living daylights out of the American people.

Citizens being presumed guilty rather than innocent will plunge professional society into a state of chaos, a never-ending assault of sexual assault allegations against those with whom we disagree.

The “intergalactic circus” we all just witnessed was a disgrace to the U.S. Senate, and its time-honored traditions. By assuming every uncorroborated allegation against Justice Kavanaugh was true — no matter how flimsy, no matter how heinous the allegation — the left has scared soft Republicans back home.

The impact to electoral politics says nothing of the impact to the U.S. Senate, itself. Senator Collins was clearly disturbed by the lack of reverence to the institution, particularly the leak of the letter from Professor Christine Blasey Ford, and allegedly against her wishes. She lets the leaker of the letter have it.

To that leaker who I hope is listening now, let me say that what you did was unconscionable. You have taken a survivor who was not only entitled to your respect but who also trusted you to protect her, and you have sacrificed her well-being in a misguided attempt to win whatever political crusade you think you are fighting.

My only hope is that your callous act has turned this process into such a dysfunctional circus that it will cause the Senate and indeed all Americans to reconsider how we evaluate Supreme Court if that happens, then the appalling lack of compassion you afforded Prof. Ford will at least have some unintended positive consequences.

My Translation: Dear Leaker, you were just spanked like a child by an adult on national television.

In all of this madness, we must hold up those who took the hard stands when our core was threatened. With that, bravo and job well done to Senator Susan Collins, who showed the world Friday women also value reason and principle.

Full Transcript of Susan Collins’ Floor Speech

Mr. President, the five previous times that I have come to the floor to explain my vote on the nomination of a justice to the United States Supreme Court, I have begun my floor remarks explaining my decision with a recognition of the solemn nature and the importance of the occasion.

But today we have come to the conclusion of a confirmation process that has become so dysfunctional it looks more like a caricature of a gutter-level political campaign than a solemn occasion.

The President nominated Brett Kavanaugh on July 9th. Within moments of that announcement, special interest groups raced to be the first to oppose him, including one organization that didn’t even bother to fill in the Judge’s name on its pre-written press release – they simply wrote that they opposed “Donald Trump’s nomination of XX to the Supreme Court of the United States.” A number of Senators joined the race to announce their opposition, but they were beaten to the punch by one of our colleagues who actually announced opposition before the nominee’s identity was even known.

Since that time, we have seen special interest groups whip their followers into a frenzy by spreading misrepresentations and outright falsehoods about Judge Kavanaugh’s judicial record. Over-the-top rhetoric and distortions of his record and testimony at his first hearing produced short-lived headlines which, although debunked hours later, continue to live on and be spread through social media. Interest groups have also spent an unprecedented amount of dark money opposing this nomination.

Our Supreme Court confirmation process has been in steady decline for more than thirty years. One can only hope that the Kavanaugh nomination is where the process has finally hit rock bottom.

Against this backdrop, it is up to each individual Senator to decide what the Constitution’s “advice and consent” duty means. Informed by Alexander Hamilton’s Federalist 76, I have interpreted this to mean that the President has broad discretion to consider a nominee’s philosophy, whereas my duty as a Senator is to focus on the nominee’s qualifications as long as that nominee’s philosophy is within the mainstream of judicial thought.

I have always opposed litmus tests for judicial nominees with respect to their personal views or politics, but I fully expect them to be able to put aside any and all personal preferences in deciding the cases that come before them. I have never considered the President’s identity or party when evaluating Supreme Court nominations. As a result, I voted in favor of Justices Roberts and Alito, who were nominated by President Bush, Justices Sotomayor and Kagan, who were nominated by President Obama, and Justice Gorsuch, who was nominated by President Trump.

So I began my evaluation of Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination by reviewing his 12-year record on the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, including his more than 300 opinions and his many speeches and law review articles. Nineteen attorneys, including lawyers from the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, briefed me many times each week and assisted me in evaluating the judge’s extensive record. I met with Judge Kavanaugh for more than two hours in my office. I listened carefully to the testimony at the Committee hearings. I spoke with people who knew him personally, such as Condoleezza Rice and many others. And, I talked with Judge Kavanaugh a second time by phone for another hour to ask him very specific additional questions.

I have also met with thousands of my constituents, both advocates and many opponents, regarding Judge Kavanaugh. One concern that I frequently heard was that Judge Kavanaugh would be likely to eliminate the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) vital protections for people with preexisting conditions. I disagree with this contention. In a dissent in Seven-Sky v. Holder, Judge Kavanaugh rejected a challenge to the ACA on narrow procedural grounds, preserving the law in full. Many experts have said his dissent informed Justice Roberts’ opinion upholding the ACA at the Supreme Court.

Furthermore, Judge Kavanaugh’s approach toward the doctrine of severability is narrow. When a part of a statute is challenged on constitutional grounds, he has argued for severing the invalid clause as surgically as possible while allowing the overall law to remain intact.

This was his approach in his dissent in a case that involved a challenge to the structure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (PPH v. CFPB). In his dissent, Judge Kavanaugh argued for “severing any problematic portions while leaving the remainder intact.” Given the current challenges to the ACA, proponents, including myself, of protections for people with pre-existing conditions should want a Justice who would take just this kind of approach.

Another assertion I have heard often is that Judge Kavanaugh cannot be trusted if a case involving alleged wrongdoing by the President were to come before the Court. The basis for this argument seems to be two-fold. First, Judge Kavanaugh has written that he believes that Congress should enact legislation to protect presidents from criminal prosecution or civil liability while in office. Mr. President, I believe opponents miss the mark on this issue. The fact that Judge Kavanaugh offered this legislative proposal suggests that he believes that the President does not have such protection currently.

Second, there are some who argue that given the current Special Counsel investigation, President Trump should not even be allowed to nominate a justice. That argument ignores our recent history. President Clinton, in 1993, nominated Justice Ginsburg after the Whitewater investigation was already underway. And she was confirmed 96-3. The next year, just three months after Independent Counsel Robert Fiske was named to lead the Whitewater investigation, President Clinton nominated Justice Breyer. He was confirmed 87-9.

Supreme Court Justices have not hesitated to rule against the presidents who have nominated them. Perhaps most notably in United States v. Nixon, three Nixon appointees who heard the case joined the unanimous opinion against him.

Judge Kavanaugh has been unequivocal in his belief that no president is above the law. He has stated that Marbury v. Madison, Youngstown Steel v. Sawyer and United States v. Nixon are three of the four greatest Supreme Court cases in history. What do they have in common? Each of them is a case where the Court served as a check on presidential power. And I would note that the fourth case that Judge Kavanaugh has pointed to as the greatest in history was Brown v Board of Education.

One Kavanaugh decision illustrates the point about the check on presidential power directly. He wrote the opinion in Hamdan v. United States, a case that challenged the Bush Administration’s military commission prosecution of an associate of Osama Bin Laden. This conviction was very important to the Bush Administration, but Judge Kavanaugh, who had been appointed to the DC Circuit by President Bush and had worked in President Bush’s White House, ruled that the conviction was unlawful. As he explained during the hearing, “We don’t make decisions based on who people are, or their policy preferences, or the moment. We base decisions on the law….”

Others I met with have expressed concerns that Justice Kennedy’s retirement threatens the right of same sex couples to marry. Yet, Judge Kavanaugh described the Obergefell decision, which legalized same gender marriages, as an important landmark precedent. He also cited Justice Kennedy’s recent Masterpiece Cakeshop opinion for the Court’s majority stating that: “The days of treating gay and lesbian Americans or gay and lesbian couples as second-class citizens who are inferior in dignity and worth are over in the Supreme Court.”

Others have suggested that the judge holds extreme views on birth control. In one case, Judge Kavanaugh incurred the disfavor of both sides of the political spectrum for seeking to ensure the availability of contraceptive services for women while minimizing the involvement of employers with religious objections. Although his critics frequently overlook this point, Judge Kavanaugh’s dissent rejected arguments that the government did not have a compelling interest in facilitating access to contraception. In fact, he wrote that the Supreme Court precedent “strongly suggested” that there was a “compelling interest” in facilitating access to birth control.

There has also been considerable focus on the future of abortion rights based on the concern that Judge Kavanaugh would seek to overturn Roe v. Wade. Protecting this right is important to me.

To my knowledge, Judge Kavanaugh is the first Supreme Court nominee to express the view that precedent is not merely a practice and tradition, but rooted in Article III of our Constitution itself. He believes that precedent “is not just a judicial policy … it is constitutionally dictated to pay attention and pay heed to rules of precedent.” In other words, precedent isn’t a goal or an aspiration; it is a constitutional tenet that has to be followed except in the most extraordinary circumstances.

The judge further explained that precedent provides stability, predictability, reliance, and fairness. There are, of course, rare and extraordinary times where the Supreme Court would rightly overturn a precedent. The most famous example was when the Supreme Court in Brown v. Board of Education overruled Plessy v. Ferguson, correcting a “grievously wrong” decision–to use the judge’s term–allowing racial inequality. But, someone who believes that the importance of precedent has been rooted in the Constitution would follow long-established precedent except in those rare circumstances where a decision is “grievously wrong” or “deeply inconsistent with the law.” Those are Judge Kavanaugh’s phrases.

As Judge Kavanaugh asserted to me, a long-established precedent is not something to be trimmed, narrowed, discarded, or overlooked. Its roots in the Constitution give the concept of stare decisis greater weight such that precedent can’t be trimmed or narrowed simply because a judge might want to on a whim. In short, his views on honoring precedent would preclude attempts to do by stealth that which one has committed not to do overtly.

Noting that Roe v. Wade was decided 45 years ago, and reaffirmed 19 years later in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, I asked Judge Kavanaugh whether the passage of time is relevant to following precedent. He said decisions become part of our legal framework with the passage of time and that honoring precedent is essential to maintaining public confidence.

Our discussion then turned to the right of privacy, on which the Supreme Court relied in Griswold v. Connecticut, a case that struck down a law banning the use and sale of contraceptives. Griswold established the legal foundation that led to Roe eight years later. In describing Griswold as “settled law,” Judge Kavanaugh observed that it was the correct application of two famous cases from the 1920s, Meyer and Pierce, that are not seriously challenged by anyone today. Finally, in his testimony, he noted repeatedly that Roe had been upheld by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, describing it as “precedent on precedent.” When I asked him would it be sufficient to overturn a long-established precedent if five current justices believed it was wrongly decided, he emphatically said “no.”

Opponents frequently cite then-candidate Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to nominate only judges who would overturn Roe. The Republican platform for all presidential campaigns has included this pledge since at least 1980. During this time, Republican presidents have appointed Justices O’Connor, Souter, and Kennedy to the Supreme Court. These are the very three justices—Republican president appointed justices—who authored the Casey decision, which reaffirmed Roe. Furthermore, pro-choice groups vigorously opposed each of these justices’ nominations. Incredibly, they even circulated buttons with the slogan “Stop Souter Or Women Will Die!” Just two years later, Justice Souter coauthored the Casey opinion, reaffirming a woman’s right to choose. Suffice it to say, prominent advocacy organizations have been wrong.

These same interest groups have speculated that Judge Kavanaugh was selected to do the bidding of conservative ideologues, despite his record of judicial independence. I asked the judge point blank whether he had made any commitments or pledges to anyone at the White House, to the Federalist Society, or to any outside group on how he would decide cases. He unequivocally assured me he had not.

Judge Kavanaugh has received rave reviews for his 12-year track record as a judge, including for his judicial temperament. The American Bar Association (ABA) gave him its highest possible rating. Its Standing Committee on the Federal Judiciary conducted an extraordinarily thorough assessment, soliciting input from almost 500 people, including his judicial colleagues. The ABA concluded that “his integrity, judicial temperament, and professional competence met the highest standard.”

Lisa Blatt, who has argued more cases before the Supreme Court than any other woman in history, testified: “By any objective measure, Judge Kavanaugh is clearly qualified to serve on the Supreme Court.” “His opinions are invariably thoughtful and fair….” Ms. Blatt, who clerked for and is an ardent admirer of Justice Ginsburg, and who is, in her own words, “an unapologetic defender of a woman’s right to choose,” said that Judge Kavanaugh “fit[s] in the mainstream of legal thought.” She also observed that “Judge Kavanaugh is remarkably committed to promoting women in the legal profession.”

That Judge Kavanaugh is more of a centrist than some of his critics maintain is reflected in the fact that he and Chief Judge Merrick Garland voted the same way in 93 percent of the cases that they heard together. Indeed, Chief Judge Garland joined in more than 96 percent of the majority opinions authored by Judge Kavanaugh, dissenting only once.

Despite all this, after weeks of reviewing Judge Kavanaugh’s record and listening to 32 hours of his testimony, the Senate’s advice and consent role was thrown into a tailspin following the allegations of sexual assault by Professor Christine Blasey Ford. The confirmation process now involves evaluating whether or not Judge Kavanaugh committed sexual assault, and lied about it to the Judiciary Committee.

Some argue that because this is a lifetime appointment to our highest court, the public interest requires that doubts be resolved against the nominee. Others see the public interest as embodied in our long-established tradition of affording to those accused of misconduct a presumption of innocence. In cases in which the facts are unclear, they would argue that the question should be resolved in favor of the nominee.

Mr. President, I understand both viewpoints. This debate is complicated further by the fact that the Senate confirmation process is not a trial. But certain fundamental legal principles—about due process, the presumption of innocence, and fairness—do bear on my thinking, and I cannot abandon them.

In evaluating any given claim of misconduct, we will be ill served in the long run if we abandon the presumption of innocence and fairness, tempting though it may be. We must always remember that it is when passions are most inflamed that fairness is most in jeopardy.

The presumption of innocence is relevant to the advice and consent function when an accusation departs from a nominee’s otherwise exemplary record. I worry that departing from this presumption could lead to a lack of public faith in the judiciary and would be hugely damaging to the confirmation process moving forward.

Some of the allegations levied against Judge Kavanaugh illustrate why the presumption of innocence is so important. I am thinking in particular not of the allegations raised by Professor Ford, but of the allegation that, when he was a teenager, Judge Kavanaugh drugged multiple girls and used their weakened state to facilitate gang rape. This outlandish allegation was put forth without any credible supporting evidence and simply parroted public statements of others. That such an allegation can find its way into the Supreme Court confirmation process is a stark reminder about why the presumption of innocence is so ingrained in our American consciousness.

Mr. President, I listened carefully to Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony before the Judiciary Committee. I found her testimony to be sincere, painful, and compelling. I believe that she is a survivor of a sexual assault and that this trauma has upended her life. Nevertheless, the four witnesses she named could not corroborate any of the events of that evening gathering where she says the assault occurred; none of the individuals Professor Ford says were at the party has any recollection at all of that night.

Judge Kavanaugh forcefully denied the allegations under penalty of perjury. Mark Judge denied under penalty of felony that he had witnessed an assault. PJ Smyth, another person allegedly at the party, denied that he was there under penalty of felony. Professor Ford’s life-long friend Leland Keyser indicated that, under penalty of felony, she does not remember that party. And Ms. Keyser went further. She indicated that not only does she not remember a night like that, but also that she does not even know Brett Kavanaugh.

In addition to the lack of corroborating evidence, we also learned some facts that raised more questions. For instance, since these allegations have become public, Professor Ford testified that not a single person has contacted her to say, “I was at the party that night.”

Furthermore, the professor testified that although she does not remember how she got home that evening, she knew that, because of the distance, she would have needed a ride – yet not a single person has come forward to say that they were the one that drove her home or were in the car with her that night. And Professor Ford also indicated that even though she left that small gathering of six or so people abruptly and without saying goodbye and distraught, none of them called her the next day – or ever – to ask why she left – is she okay – not even her closest friend, Ms. Keyser.

Mr. President, the Constitution does not provide guidance as to how we are supposed to evaluate these competing claims. It leaves that decision up to each Senator. This is not a criminal trial, and I do not believe that claims such as these need to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. Nevertheless, fairness would dictate that the claims at least should meet a threshold of “more likely than not” as our standard.

The facts presented do not mean that Professor Ford was not sexually assaulted that night – or at some other time – but they do lead me to conclude that the allegations fail to meet the “more likely than not” standard. Therefore, I do not believe that these charges can fairly prevent Judge Kavanaugh from serving on the Court.

Let me emphasize that my approach to this question should not be misconstrued as suggesting that unwanted sexual contact of any nature is not a serious problem in this country. To the contrary, if any good at all has come from this ugly confirmation process, it has been to create an awareness that we have underestimated the pervasiveness of this terrible problem.

I have been alarmed and disturbed, however, by some who have suggested that unless Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination is rejected, the Senate is somehow condoning sexual assault. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Every person—man or woman–who makes a charge of sexual assault deserves to be heard and treated with respect. The #MeToo movement is real. It matters. It is needed. And it is long overdue. We know that rape and sexual assault are less likely to be reported to the police than other forms of assault. On average, an estimated 211,000 rapes and sexual assaults go unreported every year. We must listen to survivors, and every day we must seek to stop the criminal behavior that has hurt so many. We owe this to ourselves, our children, and generations to come.

Since the hearing, I have listened to many survivors of sexual assault. Many were total strangers who told me their heart-wrenching stories for the first time in their lives. Some were friends I have known for decades, yet with the exception of one woman who had confided in me years ago, I had no idea that they had been the victims of sexual attacks. I am grateful for their courage and their willingness to come forward, and I hope that in heightening public awareness, they have also lightened the burden that they have been quietly bearing for so many years. To them, I pledge to do all that I can to ensure that their daughters and granddaughters never share their experiences.

Over the past few weeks, I have been emphatic that the Senate has an obligation to investigate and evaluate the serious allegations of sexual assault. I called for and supported the additional hearing to hear from both Professor Ford and Judge Kavanaugh. I also pushed for and supported the FBI supplemental background investigation. This was the right thing to do.

Christine Ford never sought the spotlight. She indicated that she was terrified to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee, and she has shunned attention since then. She seemed completely unaware of Chairman Grassley’s offer to allow her to testify confidentially in California. Watching her, Mr. President, I could not help but feel that some people who wanted to engineer the defeat of this nomination cared little, if at all, for her well-being.

Professor Ford testified that a very limited number of people had access to her letter. Yet that letter found its way into the public domain. She testified that she never gave permission for that very private letter to be released. And yet, here we are. We are in the middle of a fight that she never sought, arguing about claims that she wanted to raise confidentially.

One theory I have heard espoused repeatedly is that our colleague, Senator Feinstein, leaked Professor Ford’s letter at the eleventh hour to derail this process. I want to state this very clearly: I know Senator Diane Feinstein extremely well, and I believe that she would never do that. I knew that to be the case before she even stated it at the hearing. She is a person of integrity, and I stand by her.

I have also heard some argue that the Chairman of the Committee somehow treated Professor Ford unfairly. Nothing could be further from the truth. Chairman Grassley, along with his excellent staff, treated Professor Ford with compassion and respect throughout the entire process. And that is the way the Senator from Iowa has conducted himself throughout a lifetime dedicated to public service.

But the fact remains, Mr. President, that someone leaked this letter against Professor Ford’s express wishes. I suspect, regrettably, that we will never know for certain who did it. To that leaker, who I hope is listening now, let me say that what you did was unconscionable. You have taken a survivor who was not only entitled to your respect, but who also trusted you to protect her – and you have sacrificed her well-being in a misguided attempt to win whatever political crusade you think you are fighting. My only hope is that your callous act has turned this process into such a dysfunctional circus that it will cause the Senate – and indeed all Americans – to reconsider how we evaluate Supreme Court nominees. If that happens, then the appalling lack of compassion you afforded Professor Ford will at least have some unintended positive consequences.

Mr. President, the politically charged atmosphere surrounding this nomination had reached a fever pitch even before these allegations were known, and it has been challenging even then to separate fact from fiction.

We live in a time of such great disunity, as the bitter fight over this nomination both in the Senate and among the public clearly demonstrates. It is not merely a case of different groups having different opinions. It is a case of people bearing extreme ill will toward those who disagree with them. In our intense focus on our differences, we have forgotten the common values that bind us together as Americans. When some of our best minds are seeking to develop ever more sophisticated algorithms designed to link us to websites that only reinforce and cater to our views, we can only expect our differences to intensify.

This would have alarmed the drafters of our Constitution, who were acutely aware that different values and interests could prevent Americans from becoming and remaining a single people. Indeed, of the six objectives they invoked in the preamble to the Constitution, the one that they put first was the formation of “a more perfect Union.”

Their vision of “a more perfect Union” does not exist today, and if anything, we appear to be moving farther away from it. It is particularly worrisome that the Supreme Court, the institution that most Americans see as the principal guardian of our shared constitutional heritage, is viewed as part of the problem through a political lens.

Mr. President, we’ve heard a lot of charges and counter charges about Judge Kavanaugh. But as those who have known him best have attested, he has been an exemplary public servant, judge, teacher, coach, husband, and father. Despite the turbulent, bitter fight surrounding his nomination, my fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court so that we have far fewer 5-4 decisions and so that public confidence in our Judiciary and our highest court is restored. Mr. President, I will vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.

Senator Susan Collins did not shrink away

A protestor rests next to their big government big mistake sign. (Photo: Reuters)

A protestor rests next to their big government big mistake sign. (Photo: Reuters)

explained last year that there is an inverse relationship between government efficiency and the size of government. And Mark Steyn made the same point, using humor, back in 2012.

Interestingly, we have some unexpected allies.

In a recently released study, two economists for the World Bank decided to investigate the effectiveness of government spending.

Governments of developing countries typically spend resources equivalent to between 15 and 30 percent of GDP. Hence, small changes in the efficiency of public spending could have a significant impact on GDP and on the attainment of the government’s objectives. The first challenge faced by stakeholders is measuring efficiency. This paper attempts such quantification and verifies empirical regularities in the cross country-variation in the efficiency scores.

So they calculated how much different governments were spending and the results that were being achieved.

Using two different methodologies, here’s what they found for health spending and life expectancy.

The goal, of course, is to get good results (to be higher on the vertical axis) without having to spend a lot of money (in other words, try to be farther left on the horizontal axis).

And here are the numbers for education quality and education spending.

The economist then crunched all the numbers to determine the relationship between spending and outcomes.

The results may surprise some people.

Government expenditure (GOVEXP) is negatively associated with efficiency scores in education (Tables 14 a and b). This result is robust to changes in the output indicator selected. In the output efficiency case, the impact is ambiguous specially when the PISA Math and Science scores are the output indicators (Table 14 b). In health (Tables 15 a and b), the negative association is present in both input and output efficiency. In infrastructure, the expenditure variables (GOVEXP and PUBGFC10PC) are negative in the six output indicators that are used (Table 16a).23 There is a robust trade-off between size of expenditure and efficiency. …The share of public financing within the total (sum of public and private) is robustly associated with lower efficiency scores.

But here’s another surprise.

These World Bank results are not an outlier.

The European Central Bank has two separate studies (here and here) that conclude smaller government is more effective.

And the International Monetary Fund found that decentralized government is more efficient.

P.S. Don’t forget that this competency argument for small government is augmented by the economic argument for small government.

Research from the World Bank, the European

Florida Governor Rick Scott meets with his team and officials in preparation for Hurricane Irma in Tallahassee on September 7, 2017.

Florida Governor Rick Scott meets with his team and officials in preparation for Hurricane Irma in Tallahassee on September 7, 2017.

Governor Rick Scott (R) will declare a state of emergency for counties in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend in preparation for Tropical Depression 14 to strengthen to Hurricane Michael. The Euro model (ECMWF) forecasts Tropical Depression Fourteen to make landfall as Hurricane Michael at the Florida Panhandle along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

“With the National Hurricane Center forecasting Tropical Depression 14 to strengthen and impact Florida’s Panhandle as a hurricane, families need to get prepared. Today, I will be declaring a state of emergency in counties in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and directing the State Emergency Operations Center to activate. Later today, I will receive a full update and briefing on the forecast and potential impacts of the storm from federal, state and local emergency management officials.”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Depression Fourteen is currently located about 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving slowly tracking north-northwest with maximum winds of 35 miles per hour.

“Our state understands how serious tropical weather is and how devastating any hurricane or tropical storm can be,” Governor Scott added. “As we continue to monitor this storm’s northward path toward Florida, it is critically important that our communities have every available resource to keep everyone safe and prepared.”

Hurricane Michael is forecast to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour. Hurricane strength is 74 miles per hour.

“If any Florida family doesn’t have an emergency preparedness plan, now is the time to act,” he added. “Floridians also know just how quickly the path of a storm can change and that’s why we all must be vigilant and get prepared today. I encourage every Floridian to visit www.FloridaDisaster.org.”

Governor Rick Scott will declare a state

The Euro model (ECMWF) forecasts Tropical Depression Fourteen to make landfall as Hurricane Michael at the Florida Panhandle along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Depression Fourteen is currently located about 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving slowly tracking north-northwest with maximum winds of 35 miles per hour.

UPDATE: This forecast has been updated for Monday, October 8, 2018. It can be found here.

The NHC forecast, which along with other models has underperformed juxtaposed to the ECMWF, shows Michael moving inland at southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle and into Georgia late Wednesday night. Early Thursday morning, it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm, though still maintaining winds of 50 miles per hour.

The NHC advisory predicts the storm will track almost due north, also putting the Alabama coast in the cone. The concern is that the storm’s path is widespread across the Southeast, and its impact will be felt beyond the Gulf Coast.

NHC Graphic Tropical Storm 14 Hurricane 10-07-18Michael

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
Source: National Hurricane Center

“Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,” the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. “Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.”

The system, currently named Tropical Depression Fourteen, is expected to become Tropical Storm Michael later Sunday and begin to track its northern path through the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it will move inland as Tropical Storm Michael and the system will maintain some strength as it moves up through Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and into Virginia with tropical storm winds of 50 miles per hour and flooding potential on a sort of nor’easter track.

The NHC model predicts Tropical Storm Michael will be in Virginia, near the coast, at 1:00 AM EST Friday next week.

Hurricane Michael is forecast to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour. Hurricane strength is 74 miles per hour.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast models track, likely to shift some as the storm approaches, show Hurricane Michael hitting the Florida panhandle somewhere between Fort Walton Beach/Destin, Panama City, Port Saint Joe, and Apalachicola on Wednesday.

The latest Michael/Tropical Depression Fourteen Spaghetti models agree Michael will hit the northern Gulf Coast most likely Wednesday between Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Tropical Depression Fourteen is currently located about 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving slowly to the north-northwest with maximum winds of 35 miles per hour.

H/T: Tropical Tidbits

The ECMWF forecasts Tropical Depression Fourteen to

But Both Parties Look to November for Next Battle

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh looks on during his Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing September 4, 2018.

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh looks on during his Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing September 4, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)

Conservatives celebrated and liberals lamented the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Saturday. The U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to confirm Justice Kavanaugh as the 114th justice, and President Donald Trump was quick to congratulate him on Twitter.

“I applaud and congratulate the U.S. Senate for confirming our GREAT NOMINEE, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, to the United States Supreme Court,” he tweeted after the vote. “Later today, I will sign his Commission of Appointment, and he will be officially sworn in. Very exciting!”

Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., administered the Constitutional Oath and retired Associate Justice Anthony M. Kennedy will administer the Judicial Oath in a private ceremony later today in the Justices’ Conference Room at the U.S. Supreme Court.

“Both oaths will be administered so that he can begin to participate in the work of the Court immediately,” the Court said in a statement.

Justice Kavanaugh, 53, served on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. President Donald Trump nominated the “Judge’s Judge” to replace Justice Kennedy, who announced a few weeks before that he would retire, effective July 31. He is the second U.S. Supreme Court justice nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the U.S. Senate, the first being Justice Neil Gorsuch.

Justice Gorsuch and Justice Kavanaugh both clerked for Justice Kennedy, the traditional swing vote. With his retirement, the gutter-bound battle over the ideological lean of the High Court hit a new low when Professor Christine Blasey Ford, a liberal activist and Palo Alto University psychology professor, alleged Justice Kavanaugh attempted to rape her at a high-school party in or about 1982, when he was 17 and she was 15.

Subsequently, multiple other women made their own allegations, all of which crumbled under scrutiny. Then, Professor Ford’s story began to fall apart and the bitter fight has now ended with defeat for liberal groups that spent millions to derail the confirmation. With the battle over the swing seat lost, Democrats and their allies turned their attention to the elections in November.

“We mourn. We do what it takes to get through. We rage. We wake up and fight another day. We persist,” Planned Parenthood for America (PPFA) tweeted.

“This is a dark time in our nation,” the Women’s March tweeted. “It is up to us to bring the light.”

Women’s March leader Linda Sarsour has been criticized over her sympathies for Islamic extremism and support for convicted Palestinian terrorist Rasmea Odeh, who was deported in August 2017 for lying on her visa application about her criminal past. Ms. Sarsour on Friday launched a racial attack against Senator Susan Collins, R-Me., telling her followers on Twitter they “are watching white supremacy live on the Senate Floor.”

The Club for Growth released a statement praising the vote and condemning Senate Democrats for their tactics during the nomination process.

“Despite the shenanigans and the Left’s very best efforts, their baseless, hate-filled smear campaign was no match for the truth,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh said in a statement. “In the end, the Democrats’ relentless, shameful attacks only served to tarnish themselves and exposed the lengths they would go to in order to ruin a man’s good character and use an innocent victim as a political pawn.”

The Ford allegation was made in a letter to Senator Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., the Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She withheld it for 6 weeks and it was only until after the committee held the confirmation hearings that the letter was leaked against Professor Ford’s wishes to remain anonymous.

“The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh shifts the court far to the right, putting women’s reproductive rights, civil rights, environmental protections, worker’s rights, the ability to implement gun safety rules and the ability to hold presidents accountable at risk for a generation,” Senator Feinstein tweeted.

Politically, both parties claim the confirmation process has increased voter interest and enthusiasm among their bases. But Republicans have undoubtedly received a boost, while Democrats have lost gound. The backlash over the treatment of both Professor Ford and soon-to-be Justice Kavanaugh has driven Republican-leaning women back to the fold, and resulted in skyrocketing enthusiasm.

Incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., had plummeted in the polls even before the vote. Facing almost certain defeat, she toed the line and voted “No” against the will of her voters. Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., was a hard “No” from the beginning, and refused to even hear out the nominee.

“Instead of joining Hoosiers in supporting Kavanaugh, Senator Donnelly joined the Democrat media circus to smear and obstruct President Trump’s nominee,” Mike Braun, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Indiana. “I am thrilled the Senate has confirmed Judge Kavanaugh, and look forward to the great work he will do to protect our Constitution on the Supreme Court.“

President Trump arrived in Topeka, Kansas for a rally to support Kris Kobach for governor and down-ballot Congressional Republicans. He’ll no doubt tout the achievement of a second pick on the U.S. Supreme Court, an issue that weighed heavily on the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

While it has garnered little attention, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty., and President Trump have reshaped the U.S. District Court of Appeals at a pace never before seen for the second year in a row.

The nonpartisan Institute for Free Speech, previously known as the Center for Competitive Politics, is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization that “promotes and defends the First Amendment rights to freely speak, assemble, publish, and petition the government.” The Institute previously conducted an extensive analysis of Justice Kavanaugh’s record on the First Amendment and released a statement after the confirmation.

“In twelve years on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, Judge Kavanaugh established himself as a firm defender of a robust First Amendment and free speech,” said Institute for Free Speech Chairman Bradley A. Smith. “We believe that record will continue on the nation’s highest court.”

Conservatives celebrated and liberals lamented the confirmation

The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court on Saturday, October 6, 2018. (Photo: AdobeStock/U.S. District Court of Appeals)

The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court on Saturday, October 6, 2018. (Photo: AdobeStock/U.S. District Court of Appeals)

The U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh as the 114th justice to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court on Saturday, October 6, 2018. The floor vote was interrupted multiple times by leftwing activists — who have harassed members over the last several days — protesting the confirmation.

UPDATE: It’s official. Justice Brett Kavanaugh has been sworn ini as the 114th U.S. Supreme Court justice.

“I applaud and congratulate the U.S. Senate for confirming our GREAT NOMINEE, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, to the United States Supreme Court,” President Trump tweeted after the vote. “Later today, I will sign his Commission of Appointment, and he will be officially sworn in. Very exciting!”

Senator Lisa Murkowski, R-Alas., announced she would vote “No,” though she withdrew it to vote “Present” for Senator Steve Daines, R-Mont. who supported the nomination. Senator Daines was attending his daughter’s wedding and could not be present Saturday for the vote.

Senator Susan Collins, R-Me., announced her support for the then-uncertain nomination in a passionate speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate Friday afternoon, warning the nation would be “ill-served in the long-term if we abandon the presumption of innocence and fairness, as tempting as it may be.”

Without her vote to consent, Vice President Mike Pence would’ve been needed to cast a tie-breaking vote. It would’ve been the first time in American history a vice president was needed to cast the tie-breaking vote on a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court. Senator Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., also voted “Yes” and announced he would do so on Friday shortly after the speech.

The vulnerable incumbent Democrat is up for reelection in a state President Trump by nearly 40 points with nearly 70% of the vote. But without securing the votes themselves, his support was not reliable. A source tells PPD Senator Manchin called the White House to voice support for the nominee, but held out in an attempt to avoid becoming the 50th vote.

The projection for the U.S. Senate election in West Virginia is Slightly Democrat.

Judge Kavanaugh, 53, served on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. President Donald Trump nominated the “Judge’s Judge” to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, who announced a few weeks before that he would retire, effective July 31. He is the second U.S. Supreme Court justice nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the U.S. Senate, the first being Justice Neil Gorsuch.

The Senate Judiciary Committee began holding hearings for the confirmation on September 4. Despite Democrats’ repeated attempts to obstruct, pay protestors and stage outbursts, they didn’t land a glove on him.

Then, Professor Christine Blasey Ford, a liberal activist and Palo Alto University psychology professor, alleged Judge Kavanaugh attempted to rape her at a high-school party in or about 1982, when he was 17 and she was 15. She can’t be certain of the year, how she got to and from the event, and has even given various versions of the story.

There is no contemporaneous evidence. But multiple women subsequently came forward with their own allegations, all of which crumbled under scrutiny.

The FBI was ordered by President Trump last week to look into “recent and credible” allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against Judge Kavanaugh. Senator Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., joined Senate Democrats in calling for the investigation after Professor Ford and Judge Kavanaugh both testified before the committee. 

The Senate Judiciary Committee cleared the nomination that same day, and the investigation not only found nothing to corroborate the allegations but also found evidence of witnesses being pressured to “revisit” their prior statement in order to corroborate the allegations.

Worth noting, Justice Gorsuch and soon-to-be Justice Kavanaugh both clerked for Justice Kennedy. The judge will need to take two oaths before being seated on the High Court, one as an employee of the federal judiciary and another for the Court, itself.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh could be seated with the Roberts Court as early as Tuesday. The High Court started their session on October 1, 2018, with an ideological split of 4-4.

The first oath will be administered by Chief Justice John Roberts and the other by former Justice Anthony Kennedy. Sources tell People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) the first oath will be administered tonight at the U.S. Supreme Court, and a swearing ceremony will likely take place on Monday afternoon at the White House.

The U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to confirm

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