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Consumer Sentiment Hits Second Highest Level Since 2004

Sale, consumerism and people concept – happy family with child and shopping cart buying food at grocery store or supermarket. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Syda Productions)

The preliminary reading for consumer sentiment by the Survey of Consumers rose to the second high level since 2004, second only to the record broken in March 2018.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 100.8, crushing the 97.0 median forecast and shy of the 2018 (101.4) record. That’s a 4.8% gain for the month and a 6.0% gain on the year.

“Importantly, the gains were widespread across all major socioeconomic subgroups,” Richard Curtain, chief economist for Survey of Consumers, said. “The Expectations Index reached its highest level since July 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects for jobs and incomes.”

The Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 91.1%. That’s a 4.6% gain for the month and a 7.9% gain on the year. It’s also a new 15-year high.

The Current Economic Conditions soared to 116.1, making a 5.3% gain for the month and a 3.9% gain on the year. Results this strong point to very strong consumer spending, which will bode well for third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP).

“Despite a lessening of expected gains in nominal incomes in September, inflation expectations also declined, acting to offset concerns about declining living standards,” Mr. Curtain added. “Consumers anticipated continued growth in the economy that would produce more jobs and an even lower unemployment rate during the year ahead.”

Concerns over tariffs were cited by nearly one-third of all consumers over the last 3 months. That’s up from one-in-five in the prior 4 months.

September 14, 2018

The preliminary reading for consumer sentiment by

Economy

Industrial Production Matches Forecast in August, 12-Month Rises 4.9%

American Manufacturing Sector Graphic Concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Industrial production rose by 0.4% in July, matching the consensus forecast and posting gains for three consecutive months. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% after a 0.3% gain the month before, missing the 0.3% consensus forecast.

However, the manufacturing gain was fueled by gains in motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies show up to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April.

Excluding the motor vehicles and parts, factory output was unchanged.

Still, mining and utilities were stronger.

The output of utilities rose 1.2% after decling by percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth. The mining production rose 0.7% and hasn’t posted a decline since last January.

At 108.0% of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2% higher in July than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose in August to 78.1%, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average and 0.2% below the median forecast.

September 14, 2018

Industrial production rose by 0.4% in July,

Economy

U.S. Retail Sales Revised Even Higher for July, Offsetting August

Group of friends sitting outdoors with shopping bags; several people holding smartphones and tablets. (Photo: AdobeStock/ OneInchPunch/PPD)

An upward revision (+0.2) to already strong (+0.5) retails sales in July offset a lower than expected 0.1 gain in August. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales were $509.0 billion in August.

Adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $509.0 billion. That’s 6.6% (±0.5%) above the levels in August 2017.

Total sales for the June 2018 through August 2018 period were up 6.5% (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.

The June 2018 to July 2018 period change was revised from up 0.5% (±0.4%) to up 0.7% (±0.2%). Retail trade sales were up 0.1% (±0.5%) from July 2018, and 6.2% (±0.5%) above last year.

Gasoline Stations were up 20.3% (±1.6%) from August 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were up 10.4% (±1.4%) from last year.

September 14, 2018

An upward revision (+0.2) to already strong

Video

Is Global Warming Being “Sold”? Liberty Never Sleeps Vol. 5 Episode #150

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*Hurricane Florence
*What is Global Warming?
*Modern Feudalism
*Correction or Adaptation?
*One Last Word: PR Blame Games
Todayís Bumpers:
Rainy Night in Georgia- Brook Benton

It Never Rains in California- Albert Hammond

Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head- BJ Thomas

Have You Ever Seen the Rain- CCR

Here Comes The Rain Again- Eurythmics

I’ll Follow the Sun- Beatles

Closing Theme-
Batman Dark Knight Rises 2012 House Remix feat. Hanz Zimmer
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The money pledged thru Patreon.com will go toward show costs such as advertising, server time, and broadcasting equipment. If we can get enough listeners we will expand the show to two hours and hire additional staff.

All bumper music and sound clips are not owned by the show, are either under Creative Commons Attribution Licensing, is for commentary and educational purposes, of de minimus effect, and not for monetary gain.

No copyright is claimed in any use of such materials and to the extent that material may appear to be infringed, I assert that such alleged infringement is permissible under fair use principles in U.S. copyright laws. If you believe material has been used in an unauthorized manner, please contact the poster.

September 13, 2018

Is global warming being sold like a

Economy

Jobless Claims Fall to Near-50-Year Low for Second Straight Week

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for week ending September 8, the lowest level since December 6, 1969. As People’s Pundit Daily reported, the 4-week average had fallen two weeks ago to the lowest level since December 13, 1969.

Last week, it fell again to a new low, which was revised until it was topped again this week.

The 4-week moving average came in at 208,000, a decline of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is also the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

The Labor Department (DOL) said no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending August 25.

In lagging data, the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending September 1. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 1 was 1,696,000, a decline of 15,000.

This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 1, 1973 when it was 1,692,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,711,250, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since November 24, 1973 when it was 1,706,000.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 25 were in New Jersey (2.5), Connecticut (2.2), Pennsylvania (1.9), Puerto Rico (1.9), Rhode Island (1.9), California (1.8), Alaska (1.7), Massachusetts (1.6), and New York (1.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 1 were in Indiana (+992), Hawaii (+839), Washington (+638), Illinois (+559), and Ohio (+409), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-1,415), New York (-894), Florida (-668), Texas (-655), and Connecticut (-333).

The Unemployment Weekly Insurance Claims report has indicated a solid Employment Situation. The monthly jobs report on the labor market that came out last Friday found the fastest pace for wage growth since the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, the number of job openings in the U.S. rose to set a new record high for the month of July, 6.9 million. That followed and topped another record high hit the previous month.

September 13, 2018

Initial jobless claims and the 4-week average

Economy

Atlanta Fed: Business Inflation Expectations Remain Largely Unchanged in August

A man and woman discuss business collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) rose 0.1% to 2.2% in September, largely unchanged from August. The index has remained largely unchanged for the last 4 months, despite media panic over tariffs.

The BIE measures the year-ahead inflationary expectations of businesses in the Sixth District. It’s also meant to inform about cost changes and insight into the factors driving business’ pricing decisions.

For the quarter, the perceived gap between current sales levels and what they consider “normal” came in at –2.4%, on average. Large firms reported being 3.4% above normal sales levels and midsize firms a sales gap of approximately –0.4%.

Small firms reported the largest negative sales gap at –6.9% below normal, on average.

For the special question, firms gave their expectations regarding the expected year-ahead percentage change in their employees’ wages. The median expectation was for a 3 % increase in wages over the next 12 months, slightly higher than 2.9% in the latest jobs report.

That was the fastest gain for wages since the Great Recession.

September 12, 2018

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's Business Inflation Expectations

Economy

Job Openings in the U.S. Hit Another Record High in July

A collage graphic concept for industry and labor. (Photo: AdobeStock)

In August 2017, the number of job openings in the U.S. set new record at 6.2 million. That record was broken again nearly a year later in June, rising to 6.7 million.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday that the number of job openings in the U.S. set yet another record, rising to 6.9 million. Over the month, hires and separations rose 100,000 each to 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively.

Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.4% and the layoffs and discharges rate declined 0.1% to 1.1%. The job openings rate was 4.4%.

When the Labor Department (DOL) began tracking job openings in December 2000, the number of unemployed persons per job opening was a seasonally-adjusted 2.6%.

It fell to an all-time low of 0.9%.

Meanwhile, the Employment Situation in August, commonly referred to as the monthly jobs report, found the U.S. added 201,000 jobs, wages increased at the strongest pace since the Great Recessions and the unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 3.9%.

September 12, 2018

The number of job openings in the

Economy

Wholesale Trade: Business Inventories Build in July, Net Gain for Q3 GDP

Employees have short meeting in the warehouse to check business inventory levels of goods. First in first out. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The monthly wholesale trade report by the U.S. Census Bureau shows a 0.6% build in business inventories, a big net positive for third quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Inventories have been narrowing the gap between sales, which have trended higher.

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $636.3 billion at the end of July. Total inventories were up 5.0% (±3.9%) from the revised July 2017 level.

The June 2018 to July 2018 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.7% (±0.2%) to up 0.6 percent (±0.2%).

Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $505.6 billion in July. That’s virtually unchanged (±0.2%) from the revised June level.

However, sales were up 9.8% (±3.5%) from the July 2017 level. The May 2018 to June 2018 percent change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.1% (±0.4%) to down 0.2% (±0.4%).

The July inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.26. The ratio in July 2017 was 1.32.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q3 2018 is currently 3.8% as of September 11. While that’s down from 4.4% on September 5, it is still proving to be a much stronger economic year.

September 11, 2018

The monthly wholesale trade report shows a

Polls

Kavanaugh Confirmation Seen as Much More Likely After Hearings

U.S. President Donald Trump and his nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh talk during an announcement event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., July 9, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)

The Senate Judiciary Committee began holding hearings for the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court on September 4. Despite Democrats attempting to obstruct, pay protestors and stage outbursts, they didn’t land a glove on him.

As a result, even more Americans now view his confirmation as likely.

Prior to the hearings, 69% said it was at least somewhat likely that Judge Kavanaugh would be confirmed, including 38% who thought it was very likely and another 31% who thought it was somewhat likely.

Now, 84% think Judge Kavanaugh is likely to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, with 55% saying it is very likely.

Further, when asked whether the U.S. Senate should confirm Judge Kavanuagh, a 46% plurality says yes. Only 39% say no. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans, 48% of unaffiliated voters and even 24% of Democrats also say the U.S. Senate should confirm him.

That’s up from July when President Donald Trump first announced the nomination to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, who announced a few weeks before that he would retire, effective July 31.

Judge Kavanaugh, 53, serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

Forty-four percent (44%) at that time said the U.S. Senate should confirm him, noticeably higher than the 33% who felt that way about Justice Kagan in May 2010.

That was also in line with the percentage (45%) who said the same of Justice Sonia Sotomayor in May 2009.

President Trump’s first nominee — Neil Gorsuch — was nominated and confirmed to replace the late great conservative justice Antonin Scalia. Both Justice Gorsuch and the soon-to-be “Justice’ Kavanaugh both clerked for Justice Kennedy.

The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted September 9-10, 2018, by Rasmussen Reports. The sampling error is +/-3% at 95% Confidence Interval.

September 11, 2018

Following contentious hearings before the Senate Judiciary

Economy

Small Business Optimism Skyrockets, Sets New All-Time High

A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index skyrocketed to 108.8 in August, a new record for the highest reading in 45 years. The latest result surpasses the previous record of 108 set in July 1983, one of the sole records remaining under the Trump Administration.

“Today’s groundbreaking numbers are demonstrative of what I’m hearing everyday from small business owners – that business is booming,” NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “As the tax and regulatory landscape changed, so did small business expectations and plans.”

“We’re now seeing the tangible results of those plans as small businesses report historically high, some record breaking, levels of increased sales, investment, earnings, and hiring.”

The survey is also a bit of a reality check for former president Barack Obama and supporters, who claim the economic revival under Donald Trump isn’t all that different from his tenure. Judging by the responses from the NFIB and others, that is clearly not the case.

The record-breaking reading was fueled by small business owners reacting to MAGAnomics, or the dramatic changes in the nation’s economic policy. That includes the first tax overhaul in more than 31 years, regulatory rollbacks and trade renegotiations.

As a result, business and consumer optimism have soared, along with business investment.

“At the beginning of this historic run, Index gains were dominated by expectations: good time to expand, expected real sales, inventory satisfaction, expected credit conditions, and expected business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Now the Index is dominated by real business activity that makes GDP grow: job creation plans, job openings, strong capital spending plans, record inventory investment plans, and earnings.”

“Small business is clearly helping to drive that four percent growth in the domestic economy.”

The NFIB said job creation plans and unfilled job openings both set new records, while the percentage of small business owners saying it is a good time to expand tied the May 2018 all-time high. Inventory investment plans were the strongest since 2005 and capital spending plans the highest since 2007.

September 11, 2018

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index skyrocketed

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