Widget Image
Follow PPD Social Media
follow
1,000 Followers
follow
0 Followers
follow
People's Pundit Locals Community
Thursday, January 30, 2025
SECTIONS
logo
mobile-logo
HomeStandard Blog Whole Post (Page 175)
Markets

Stocks extended their streak of daily closing highs on the major market averages to four, as optimism increased for a trilateral trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada by weeks end.

The NASDAQ Composite (INDEXNASDAQ) was the star performer, gaining nearly +1%; 8109.69, +79.65.

The NASDAQ rally was fueled by Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) +3%, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) all with gains of +1.5%, and a smattering of ~1% gains in other names.

The S&P 500 gained just over +0.5%, closing above 2900 for the first time. Energy stocks had moderate gains across the sector aided by a modestly bullish inventory report. Specialty Retailers and Metals/Materials were also mostly in the green.

Market breadth was positive as both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASD had advancing issues beating decliners by 3 to 2. These Adv/Decl stats were slightly better than Monday, which raises an eyebrow, given Monday was such a convincing breakout day with Market Averages hitting new highs and breaching round number benchmarks — NASDAQ 8000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI) at 26,000.

We could have expected breadth of at least 2:1 or better. Frankly, ditto for Wednesday as stocks clearly shifted into a higher gear just over an hour into trading after positive feedback from ongoing trade negotiations in Washington.

Is this a concern? Is it a red flag, or are their other factors in play?

At this point, maybe a Yellow Flag at worst.

While it’s not a rally that being driven by only a handful of tech stocks; AMZN +8% in the last week does stick out as a move that is a bit parabolic and not likely sustainable. I know, I know. The the landscape is littered with Amazon doubters over at least the last decade, but I’m talking the pace of the advance, (8% in a week), not the price level.

If all the FANG related stocks had similar performance during a low volume period in August, I’d be more concerned.

We’re within a few days of finishing out the month, and there is naturally some “churn” in the market. This can be part of a healthy rotation as investors and traders flush out some unwanted stocks that have rallied thanks to the “rising tide lifting all boats” phenomena. “Get these names off the sheet” as they’ll likely underperform if any pause or pullback we may see in September.

New highs have been achieved by Small Cap indices, as well as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and while tech has been a driver, neither Oil/Energy or Financials, 2 of the 3 largest mega sectors of the S&P are in new high territory. That’s Impressive, as it means there has been broad participation from many other sectors…Retailers immediately come to mind.

The market breadth is something to watch closely, especially the first couple weeks of September as volume normalizes. Stocks that have been very sensitive to tensions over trade talks and tariffs should also be in focus to see how they respond to the outcome of current negotiations.

Stocks set to open modestly lower this morning, Let’s pay attention to whether lower prices attract buyers, or give investors and traders cause for caution 2 days befor a long weekend.

Stocks extended their closing-at-daily-highs streak to 4

Economy

People count money at Macy's Herald Square store during the early opening of the Black Friday sales in the Manhattan borough of New York, November 26, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

People count money at Macy’s Herald Square store during the early opening of the Black Friday sales in the Manhattan borough of New York, November 26, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) came in just how everyone had hoped. While growth moderated, it still held at solid levels of income and spending growth, while inflation held on target.

Personal income increased $54.8 billion (0.3%) in July, while disposable personal income (DPI) increased $52.5 billion (0.3%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $49.3 billion (0.4%).

The increase in personal income for the month was fueled by increases in wages and salaries, personal dividend income, and rental income.

Real DPI rose 0.2% in July and Real PCE by 0.2%. The PCE price index gained 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2%. The $29.6 billion increase in real PCE was fueled by an increase of $10.9 billion in spending for goods and a $18.9 billion increase in spending for services.

Personal saving was $1,048.1 billion in July and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.7%.

The Personal Income and Outlays report from

Economy

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 213,000 for the week ending August 25, a less-than-expected gain of only 3,000. The consensus forecast expected a slightly higher 214,000.

The 4-week moving average — which is widely considered a better gauge, as it irons out volatility — fell 1,500 to 212,250. This is the lowest level for this average since December 13, 1969 when it was 210,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending August 18. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 18 was 1,708,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

The previous week’s level was revised up 1,000 from 1,727,000 to 1,728,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,731,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 1,735,500 to 1,735,750.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending August 11.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 11 were in New Jersey (2.5), Connecticut (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.1), Puerto Rico (2.1), California (1.9), Rhode Island (1.9), Alaska (1.8), Massachusetts (1.6), the District of Columbia (1.5), Illinois (1.5), New York (1.5), and the Virgin Islands (1.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 18 were in California (+545), New Jersey (+465), Arkansas (+180), North Carolina (+127), and Missouri (+108), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-965), Georgia (-950), Michigan (-511), South Carolina (-501), and Illinois (-481).

The 4-week average for initial jobless claims

US

Fraud Scheme Used U.S. Postal Service Route, Employee to Cash In

United States Postal Service (USPS) clerks sort mail at the Lincoln Park carriers annex in Chicago, Illinois on November 29, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

United States Postal Service (USPS) clerks sort mail at the Lincoln Park carriers annex in Chicago, Illinois on November 29, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A U.S. Postal Service employee was indicted for his role in a stolen identity refund fraud scheme, newly-unsealed Justice Department (DOJ) records show.

Demetrius Jones, who had a postal route located in Phenix City, Alabama, is alleged to have joined in a scheme to file false tax returns using stolen identities in order to obtain fraudulent tax refunds. Mr. Jones’ co-conspirators allegedly obtained stolen personal identification information from several sources, including from an Alabama state database.

They then allegedly prepared and filed false federal income tax returns.

Federal prosecutors also allege in the indictment that the co-conspirators directed the tax refund checks to be mailed to addresses located on Mr. Jones’s postal route. They would then pay Mr. Jones a fee for him to deliver the checks.

If convicted, Mr. Jones faces a statutory maximum sentence of 10 years in prison for the conspiracy count, 20 years in prison for each count of mail fraud, and a mandatory minimum sentence of two years in prison for aggravated identity theft. But that’s not the end of his legal troubles.

The defendant also faces substantial monetary penalties, supervised release, restitution, and forfeiture.

Trial Attorneys Michael C. Boteler and Gregory P. Bailey of the Tax Division and Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Ross of the Middle District of Alabama, are prosecuting the case.

A U.S. Postal Service employee was indicted

Polls

xScott Rasmussen holds up the book, The Electoral College. (Photo: YouTube SS)

Scott Rasmussen holds up the book, The Electoral College. (Photo: YouTube SS)

Scott Rasmussen has partnered with HarrisX to produce the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, his first public project since 2013. The pollster who started the firm that now bears his name was pushed out by a reform effort that followed the 2012 presidential election.

The head-to-head daily tracking poll found Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by a single percentage point, and several battleground states were incorrect, including Virginia. The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll in 2016 correctly predicted the popular vote margin.

“Our mission is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion. Temporary political preferences come and go, but it is the deeper currents of public attitudes and culture that move the nation forward,” Mr. Rasmussen said. “I am excited to work with the HarrisX team to measure those deeper currents using a rigorous methodology and unrivaled professionalism.”

His new namesake will also focus more on public opinion rather than the partisan politics. The Daily Tracking Poll will draw from HarrisX and will use its HarrisX Overnight Poll service. It surveys more than one thousand Americans and registered voters five nights a week via online panel.

The panel respondents are screened to determine voter registration status, and weighted to reflect for gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, and other relevant demographics.

“We’re thrilled to collaborate with Scott on his new venture, and echo his mission of unearthing the nuances of public opinion around social changes, political life, and governance carefully and methodically, and without using partisan lenses,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief researcher at HarrisX.

“Our HarrisX Overnight Poll employs what I believe to be all the current best practices of polling in the digital era. I can’t imagine a better partner than Scott to put those techniques to use.”

Scott Rasmussen has partnered with HarrisX to

Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) 2018 was revised slightly higher to 4.2%, beating the consensus. While the forecast range was 3.8% to 4.2%, the consensus forecast was 4.0%.

Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment were partly offset by a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), or consumer spending.

Positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.8% in Q2, compared with an increase of 3.9% in Q1 2018. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, gained 3.0% in Q2 juxtaposed to an increase of 3.1% in Q1.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the

Markets

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Stocks meandered in a very narrow range on Tuesday, in what was a very constructive consolidation day following 2 strong days of gains.

Despite closing well off their best levels of the day most Major Market Averages settled slightly in positive territory allowing headlines to proclaim, “Another day of All time Highs.”

It’s actually striking how tight the range was across every metric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI), S&P 500 (INDEXCBOE: .INX), Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT), S&P MidCap 400, all settled within +/- 0.1% or their prior days close. The NASDAQ Composite (INDEXNASDAQ), +0.15% and the DJ Transports, -0.2% were the high volatility movers on the day.

Of course, what’s more significant than fractional gains or losses within a tight range is that we held the impressive breakout to new highs, and through benchmark levels from Friday and Monday.

With 3 trading sessions left in the month, if we hold these breakout levels, the technical analysis crowd will be left with very bullish intermediate and long term chart patterns to ruminate over through a 3 day holiday weekend.

We’re looking at possibility of posting new All Time Highs on Weekly and Monthly charts for the S&P 500, NASDAQ composite, Russell 2000, DJ Transportation Average, as well as a few other Mid Cap and Small Cap indices. Technicians that look at long term multi-year trends, will be very positively inclined to start the month of September.

We’re not there yet, but stay focused on this the next 3 days!

Also, even though the DJIA is 500+ points, or just over 2% away from new highs, holding the gains of the last 2 days would give the DJIA weekly gains in 8 of the last 9 weeks.

Not too shabby!

The Macro highlight from Tuesday was clearly that the consumer confidence report from the Conference Board came in at 133.4, Crushing the consensus of 126.5. This was the highest consumer confidence report in 18 years!! This report gives a lot of reinforcement to the strong retail sales report we had earlier in the month, and the surprisingly strong earnings reports from individual retailers last week.

GDP Update

Minutes ago we got the first revision to Q2 2018 GDP which came in with a mild upside revision to +4.2% from an initial report of +4.1%. Upside revisions are always a positive sign for GDP reports as it demonstrates that hard data is coming in ahead of the initial estimates and surveys.

With 3 trading sessions left in the

Elections

A supporter of Donald Trump dons a T-shirt with a new twist on an old joke targeting Hillary Clinton during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People's Pundit Daily)

A supporter of Donald Trump dons a T-shirt with a new twist on an old joke targeting Hillary Clinton during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People’s Pundit Daily)

Ron DeSantis has won the Republican nomination for governor in Florida, defeating Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. With 50.6% of precincts reporting (3,020/5,968), Representative DeSantis led Mr. Putnam 55.8% to 37.3%.

The commissioner was long-thought by media pundits to be the favorite in the race. But President Donald Trump put his full endorsement behind the congressman, who has been a staunch ally in Washington.

Ron DeSantis has won the Republican nomination

Economy

Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 133.4 (1985=100) in August, the highest since October 2000. That’s up from a modest increase to 127.9 in July.

The Present Situation Index improved from 166.1 to 172.2, while the Expectations Index increased from 102.4 last month to 107.6 this month.

“Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 (Index, 135.8), following a modest improvement in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further.”

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 17.

“Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018,” Franco added. “Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.”

The percentage of consumers stating business conditions are “good” rose from 38.1% to 40.3%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” fell from 10.3% to 9.1%.

The same is true of their views on the labor market was also more favorable. The percentage claiming jobs are “plentiful” was virtually unchanged at 42.7%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 14.8% to 12.7%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook bounced back in August. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 22.9% to 24.3%. However, those expecting business conditions will worsen ticked up marginally, from 10.3% to 10.5%.

The proportion anticipating more jobs fell from 22.6% to 21.7%, while those anticipating fewer jobs did as well, from 15.2% to 14.1%. For short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement increased from 20.4% to 25.5%, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined, from 9.4% to 7.0%.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 133.4 (1985=100)

Economy

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index covering all nine U.S. census divisions rose 6.2% annually in June, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite increased annually by 6.0%, down from 6.2% in the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.5% in the previous month.

“Home prices continue to rise across the U.S.” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market.”

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco led the gains in the report with the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Las Vegas saw a 13.0% year-over-year increase in home prices, followed by Seattle and San Francisco with increases of 12.8% and 10.7%, respectively.

Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2018 juxtaposed to the year ending May 2018.

“Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets,” Mr. Blitzer added. “Rising mortgage rates – 30 year fixed rate mortgages rose from 4% to 4.5% since January – and the rise in home prices are affecting housing affordability.”

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home

People's Pundit Daily
You have %%pigeonMeterAvailable%% free %%pigeonCopyPage%% remaining this month. Get unlimited access and support reader-funded, independent data journalism.

Start a 14-day free trial now. Pay later!

Start Trial

Subscribe