Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On Inside The Numbers, we discuss early polling and economic data from this week and the electoral map.
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On Inside The Numbers, we discuss early
Philadelphia, Penn. (PPD) — The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey unexpectedly rebounded strongly in June, far off the low in April. The diffusion index for current general activity soared from -43.1 in May to 27.5, the first positive reading since February.
Most manufacturing firms believe they are seeing light at the end of the tunnel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported. Forty-six percent (46%) of manufacturing firms reported increases this month, up from 15% last month. Meanwhile, 19% reported decreases, down from 58%.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -35.0 to a high of -18.0. The consensus forecast was -22.7.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims came in more than expected at 1,501,000 for the week ending June 13, due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s a decrease for the eleventh straight week and of 58,000 from the previous week’s upwardly (+24,000) 1,566,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,100,000 to a high of 1,628,000. The consensus forecast was 1,220,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,773,500, a decline of 234,500 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average at 2,008,000.
Roughly 47 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits as a result of the efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). However, millions now appear to have returned to work given lagging data.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 14.1% for the week ending June 6, unchanged as the previous week was revised down by 0.3 from 14.4 to 14.1%.
The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 6 was 20,544,000, a decrease of 62,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 323,000 from 20,929,000 to 20,606,000.
The 4-week moving average was 20,814,750, a decrease of 1,092,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 80,750 from 21,987,500 to 21,906,750.
During the week ending May 30, Extended Benefits were available in the following 34 states: Alaska, California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 30 were in Nevada (24.2), Puerto Rico (21.1), Hawaii (20.2), New York (18.0), Michigan (17.6), Connecticut (16.3), California (16.2), Rhode Island (16.2), Louisiana (16.1), and Massachusetts (16.1).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 6 were in California (+27,202), Massachusetts (+17,512), Oklahoma (+17,149), New York (+11,873), and Maryland (+9,718), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-95,546), Texas (-17,001), Georgia (-13,909), Michigan (-11,454), and Maine (-8,034).
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — Initial jobless claims
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits rose in May, despite lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). Many governments and businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely.
The new residential construction statistics report below is released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000. That’s 14.4% (±1.1%) above the revised April rate of 1,066,000, but still 8.8% (±1.0%) below the May 2019 rate of 1,338,000.
Single-family authorizations came in at a rate of 745,000, which is 11.9% (±1.9%) higher than the revised April figure of 666,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more came in at a rate of 434,000.
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 974,000. That’s 4.3% (±15.5%) above the upwardly revised April estimate of 934,000, but still 23.2% (±6.2%) below the May 2019 rate of 1,268,000.
Single-family housing starts came in at a rate of 675,000, which is 0.1% (±11.9%) higher than the revised April figure of 674,000. The rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 291,000.
Privately-owned housing completions in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,115,000. That’s 7.3% (±12.3%) below the revised April estimate of 1,203,000 and is 9.3% (±9.8%) below the May 2019 rate of 1,230,000.
Single-family housing completions came in at a rate of 791,000, which is 9.8% (±11.5%) less the revised April rate of 877,000. The rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 310,000.
On Tuesday, the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly surged 21 points to 58 in June and housing is positioned to lead a post-pandemic recovery.
New residential construction statistics for housing starts
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On Inside The Numbers, we discuss early data indicating a V-Shaped recovery, party affiliation and the electoral map.
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On Inside The Numbers, we discuss the
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — President Donald Trump signed an executive order on police reforms encouraging a limited use of chokeholds and creating a national database for police misconduct. The president said the order is a “historic action to deliver a future of safety and security for Americans of every race, religion, color, and creed.”
“Reducing crime and raising standards are not opposite goals,” the president stated. “They are not mutually exclusive. They work together.”
The executive order states chokeholds are encouraged only when the life of the police officer is in danger. It comes after the mass outcry spurred by the killing of George Floyd, which has led to both protests and rioting, and a growing movement to defund police departments in major U.S. cities.
President Trump made clear that while he supports reforms, he is still the “law and order” president and opposes efforts to defund the police.
“We have to find common ground,” he stressed. “But I strongly oppose the radical and dangerous efforts to defend [sic], dismantle and dissolve our police departments, especially now when we achieved the lowest recorded crime rates in recent history,” he said.
“To go forward, we must seek cooperation—not confrontation. We must build upon our heritage—not tear it down.”
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:
Section 1. Purpose. As Americans, we believe that all persons are created equal and endowed with the inalienable rights to life and liberty. A fundamental purpose of government is to secure these inalienable rights. Federal, State, local, tribal, and territorial law enforcement officers place their lives at risk every day to ensure that these rights are preserved.
Law enforcement officers provide the essential protection that all Americans require to raise their families and lead productive lives. The relationship between our fellow citizens and law enforcement officers is an important element in their ability to provide that protection. By working directly with their communities, law enforcement officers can help foster a safe environment where we all can prosper.
Unfortunately, there have been instances in which some officers have misused their authority, challenging the trust of the American people, with tragic consequences for individual victims, their communities, and our Nation. All Americans are entitled to live with the confidence that the law enforcement officers and agencies in their communities will live up to our Nation’s founding ideals and will protect the rights of all persons. Particularly in African-American communities, we must redouble our efforts as a Nation to swiftly address instances of misconduct.
The Constitution declares in its preamble that one of its primary purposes was to establish Justice. Generations of Americans have marched, fought, bled, and died to safeguard the promise of our founding document and protect our shared inalienable rights. Federal, State, local, tribal, and territorial leaders must act in furtherance of that legacy.
Sec. 2. Certification and Credentialing. (a) State and local law enforcement agencies must constantly assess and improve their practices and policies to ensure transparent, safe, and accountable delivery of law enforcement services to their communities. Independent credentialing bodies can accelerate these assessments, enhance citizen confidence in law enforcement practices, and allow for the identification and correction of internal deficiencies before those deficiencies result in injury to the public or to law enforcement officers.
(b) The Attorney General shall, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, allocate Department of Justice discretionary grant funding only to those State and local law enforcement agencies that have sought or are in the process of seeking appropriate credentials from a reputable independent credentialing body certified by the Attorney General.
(c) The Attorney General shall certify independent credentialing bodies that meet standards to be set by the Attorney General. Reputable, independent credentialing bodies, eligible for certification by the Attorney General, should address certain topics in their reviews, such as policies and training regarding use–of-force and de-escalation techniques; performance management tools, such as early warning systems that help to identify officers who may require intervention; and best practices regarding community engagement. The Attorney General’s standards for certification shall require independent credentialing bodies to, at a minimum, confirm that:
(i) the State or local law enforcement agency’s use-of-force policies adhere to all applicable Federal, State, and local laws; and
(ii) the State or local law enforcement agency’s use-of-force policies prohibit the use of chokeholds — a physical maneuver that restricts an individual’s ability to breathe for the purposes of incapacitation — except in those situations where the use of deadly force is allowed by law.
(d) The Attorney General shall engage with existing and prospective independent credentialing bodies to encourage them to offer a cost-effective, targeted credentialing process regarding appropriate use-of-force policies that law enforcement agencies of all sizes in urban and rural jurisdictions may access.
Sec. 3. Information Sharing. (a) The Attorney General shall create a database to coordinate the sharing of information between and among Federal, State, local, tribal, and territorial law enforcement agencies concerning instances of excessive use of force related to law enforcement matters, accounting for applicable privacy and due process rights.
(b) The database described in subsection (a) of this section shall include a mechanism to track, as permissible, terminations or de-certifications of law enforcement officers, criminal convictions of law enforcement officers for on-duty conduct, and civil judgments against law enforcement officers for improper use of force. The database described in subsection (a) of this section shall account for instances where a law enforcement officer resigns or retires while under active investigation related to the use of force. The Attorney General shall take appropriate steps to ensure that the information in the database consists only of instances in which law enforcement officers were afforded fair process.
(c) The Attorney General shall regularly and periodically make available to the public aggregated and anonymized data from the database described in subsection (a) of this section, as consistent with applicable law.
(d) The Attorney General shall, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, allocate Department of Justice discretionary grant funding only to those law enforcement agencies that submit the information described in subsection (b) of this section.
Sec. 4. Mental Health, Homelessness, and Addiction. (a) Since the mid-twentieth century, America has witnessed a reduction in targeted mental health treatment. Ineffective policies have left more individuals with mental health needs on our Nation’s streets, which has expanded the responsibilities of law enforcement officers. As a society, we must take steps to safely and humanely care for those who suffer from mental illness and substance abuse in a manner that addresses such individuals’ needs and the needs of their communities. It is the policy of the United States to promote the use of appropriate social services as the primary response to individuals who suffer from impaired mental health, homelessness, and addiction, recognizing that, because law enforcement officers often encounter such individuals suffering from these conditions in the course of their duties, all officers should be properly trained for such encounters.
(b) The Attorney General shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Health and Human Services as appropriate, identify and develop opportunities to train law enforcement officers with respect to encounters with individuals suffering from impaired mental health, homelessness, and addiction; to increase the capacity of social workers working directly with law enforcement agencies; and to provide guidance regarding the development and implementation of co-responder programs, which involve social workers or other mental health professionals working alongside law enforcement officers so that they arrive and address situations together. The Attorney General and the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall prioritize resources, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, to support such opportunities.
(c) The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall survey community-support models addressing mental health, homelessness, and addiction. Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall summarize the results of this survey in a report to the President, through the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, which shall include specific recommendations regarding how appropriated funds can be reallocated to support widespread adoption of successful models and recommendations for additional funding, if needed.
(d) The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall, in coordination with the Attorney General and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, prioritize resources, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, to implement community-support models as recommended in the report described in subsection (c) of this section.
Sec. 5. Legislation and Grant Programs. (a) The Attorney General, in consultation with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, shall develop and propose new legislation to the Congress that could be enacted to enhance the tools and resources available to improve law enforcement practices and build community engagement.
(b) The legislation described in subsection (a) of this section shall include recommendations to enhance current grant programs to improve law enforcement practices and build community engagement, including through:
(i) assisting State and local law enforcement agencies with implementing the credentialing process described in section 2 of this order, the reporting described in section 3 of this order, and the co responder and community-support models described in section 4 of this order;
(ii) training and technical assistance required to
adopt and implement improved use–of-force policies and procedures, including scenario-driven de-escalation techniques;
(iii) retention of high-performing law enforcement officers and recruitment of law enforcement officers who are likely to be high-performing;
(iv) confidential access to mental health services for law enforcement officers; and
(v) programs aimed at developing or improving relationships between law enforcement and the communities they serve, including through community outreach and listening sessions, and supporting non profit organizations that focus on improving stressed relationships between law enforcement officers and the communities they serve.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
DONALD J. TRUMP
THE WHITE HOUSE,
June 16, 2020.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The Federal Reserve reported industrial production rose 1.4% in May after posting the largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index in April. That was the direct result of factories slowing or suspending operations to mitigate the spread of the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) throughout the month.
Forecasts for industrial production ranged from a low of -2.0 to a high of 12.3. The consensus forecast was 2.9.
Manufacturing output led the rebound, gaining 3.8% in May on the heels of many factories at least partially resuming after suspending operations in response to COVID-19. Most major industries posted gains, with the largest coming from motor vehicles and parts.
Forecasts for manufacturing ranged from a low of -13.0 to a high of 15.7. The consensus forecast was 3.8. The indexes for mining and utilities offset manufacturing by falling 6.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
At 92.6% of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 15.3% lower in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point to 64.8% in May, a rate that is 15.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average and 1.9 percentage points below its trough during the Great Recession.
Forecasts for the Capacity Utilization Rate ranged from a low of 60.0 to a high of 75.7. The consensus forecast was 64.9.
Total industrial production rose 1.4% in May,
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence expectedly surged 21 points to 58 in June and housing is positioned to lead a post-pandemic recovery. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.
Forecasts ranged from a low 39 to a high of 50. The consensus forecast was 44, indicating the surge was far stronger than economists expected.
“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon. “Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising. And buyer traffic more than doubled in one month even as builders report growing online and phone inquiries stemming from the outbreak.”
The HMI started 2020 at a 20-year high. In January, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged just one point lower to 75 from December 2019. The two monthly readings marked the highest sentiment levels since July of 1999.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years. It measures builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”
The HMI also rates traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index. Readings over 50 indicate more builders view conditions as good than poor.
“Housing clearly shows signs of momentum as challenges and opportunities exist in the single-family market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Builders report increasing demand for families seeking single-family homes in inner and outer suburbs that feature lower density neighborhoods. At the same time, elevated unemployment and the risk of new, local virus outbreaks remain a risk to the housing market.”
The gain in the HMI was broad-based. All of the HMI subindices posted increases in the month of June.
The HMI index for current sales conditions soared 21 points higher to 63. The index for sales expectations in the next six months shot 22 points higher to 68. The measure charting traffic of prospective buyers skyrocketed 22 points to 43.
Looking at the monthly average regional HMI scores, the Northeast surged 31 point to 48, the South jumped 20 points to 62, the Midwest posted a 19-point gain to 51 and the West catapulted 22 points to 66.
The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance retail sales came in at $485.5 billion in May, soaring a record 17.7% (± 0.5%) and recovering more than the loss in April. While still down 6.1% (± 0.7%) from the year-ago level, it’s the largest monthly gain ever on record and far better than economists expected.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 2.3% to a high of 12.2%. The consensus forecast was 7.5%. The month of April was revised from down 16.4% (± 0.5%) to down 14.7% (± 0.2%).
Forecasts for retail sales less auto ranged from a low of 0.4% to a high of 8.6%. The consensus forecast was 5.2%. The advance estimate for May came in far higher at 12.4%.
Forecasts for retail sales less auto and gas ranged from a low of 0.3% to a high of 5.0%. The consensus forecast was 4.0%. The advance estimate for May also came in at 12.4%, far higher than expected.
Advance retail sales came in far better
The projected party affiliation of the national electorate has long been a source of controversy in public opinion polls. We conducted a national voter file database search query to determine the partisan affiliation breakdown as expressed in terms of a D/R/I-Other split.
For context, 135,500,034 total votes were cast in the 2016 U.S. presidential election for candidates on two-party and non-two-party tickets. According to exit polls, the partisan composition of the electorate as expressed in terms of the more simplified D/R/I split, was 36/33/31.
The national voter file database search query of 213-plus million records — excluding only deceased and change of address flags — returned 188,205,069 records. Of those, the partisan affiliation breakdown as expressed in terms of a D/R/I-Other split was 36/32/32, rounded to the nearest whole for each.
That is to say, 36.39% were identified or inferred Democrats, 32.14% were identified or inferred Republicans, and the remaining 31.47% were identified as Independent-Other. Worth noting, the query did not include a voter propensity score or turnout probability modeling.
The party affiliation breakdown is expressed as the sum of records identified with party codes and inferred partisans. The “I-Other” variable in the split is expressed as the sum of “independent”, “unknown”, “none”, and all other codes not belonging to either of the two major political parties.
Inferred Democrat is identified as having voted Democrat in more primaries than voted Republican from 2000 to 2014; Or no primary vote history for either party but has a Democrat or liberal donation, pro-choice flag, or is a supporter of the Affordable Care Act. Anyone with a Republican or conservative donation, pro-life, or anti-Affordable Care Act, is excluded.
Inferred Republican is identified as having voted Republican in more primaries than voted Democrat from 2000 to 2014; or no primary vote history for either party but has a Republican or conservative donation, pro-life flag, anti-Affordable Care Act flag, or Second Amendment supporter flag. Anyone with a Democrat or liberal donation, pro-choice or pro-Affordable Care Act flag, is excluded.
Inferred Democrat is identified as having a Democrat or liberal donation, pro-choice flag, or is a supporter of the Affordable Care Act. Anyone with a Republican or conservative donation, pro-life, or anti-Affordable Care Act, is excluded.
Inferred Republican is identified as having a Republican or conservative donation, pro-life flag, anti-Affordable Care Act flag, or Second Amendment supporter flag. Anyone with a Democrat or liberal donation, pro-choice or pro-Affordable Care Act flag, is excluded.
The percentages for gender demographics are estimated at 53% female and 47% male. That includes 52.46% identified outright as female and 46.99% identified outright as male. There were 0.55% blank entries and 0.01% unidentified records.
The national voter file analysis was conducted on June 15, 2020, at 9:13 PM EST. It is viewable as an embedded Google Doc below, or by link here.
We conducted a national voter file database
