For the week ending July 21, initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 217,000, a less-than-expected increase of 9,000 from the previous week. That’s slightly less than the consensus forecast of +11,000, and just off a multi-decade low (December 1969).
The 4-week moving average was 218,000, a decrease of 2,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending July 14.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 14 was 1,745,000, a decrease of 8,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,745,750, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending July 7.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 7 were in New Jersey (2.5), Connecticut (2.3), Puerto Rico (2.2), Rhode Island (2.1), Alaska (2.0), Pennsylvania (2.0), California (1.9), the Virgin Islands (1.9), Illinois (1.6), and New York (1.6).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 14 were in California (+6,345), Georgia (+4,018), Alabama (+2,775), South Carolina (+1,237), and Minnesota (+626), while the largest decreases were in New York (-9,792), Michigan (-9,263), New Jersey (-4,752), Ohio (-3,420), and Kentucky (-2,302).
Michael Cohen, personal attorney for U.S. President Donald Trump, talks to reporters as he departs after meeting with Senate Intelligence Committee staff as the panel investigates alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. September 19, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
While the Trump-Cohen tape demonstrates President Donald Trump may not have been truthful, the consensus among legal experts from across the political spectrum concludes no crime was committed. The low-quality and edited tape, which is a conversation secretly recorded by Michael Cohen, was obtained by CNN.
Liberal Constitutional Law Professor Jonathan Turley of George Washington University acknowledges there are reportedly more tapes, and that “this tape has good and bad elements for the Trump team,” this tape does not reveal “a clear crime.”
“Clearly, both sides can read negative or positive elements into this tape,” he opined. “While some have insisted that Trump sounds like a mobster, there is not a clear crime being discussed on this tape.”
However, Professor Turley did believe the tape could be used to show President Trump was informed of the deal before the election and participated in a strategy to silence his alleged former mistress Karen McDougal, known in the porn industry as Stormy Daniels.
Liberal Harvard law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz also told “Fox & Friends” Wednesday morning the tape amounts to a “big deal about nothing.”
“The end result is no payments were made, no cash was given,” Professor Dershowitz said. “There’s no crime here. There’s no impeachable offense here.”
He went on to say Mr. Cohen “shouldn’t have recorded this.”
President Trump took to Twitter to imply just that.
“What kind of a lawyer would tape a client? So sad! Is this a first, never heard of it before?” he tweeted. “Why was the tape so abruptly terminated (cut) while I was presumably saying positive things? I hear there are other clients and many reporters that are taped – can this be so? Too bad!”
What kind of a lawyer would tape a client? So sad! Is this a first, never heard of it before? Why was the tape so abruptly terminated (cut) while I was presumably saying positive things? I hear there are other clients and many reporters that are taped – can this be so? Too bad!
But the former businessman’s lawyer isn’t known for traditional practice, but rather as a for-hire fixer. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in April raided Mr. Cohen’s office and workplaces. The U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York obtained the search warrant after receiving a referral from the Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
Mr. Cohen was supposedly under investigation for campaign finance violations and bank fraud. But Mr. Mueller’s critics say he and the partisan district office in New York are simply using Mr. Cohen to obtain embarrassing material.
Rudy Giuliani, the president’s personal attorney and former federal prosecutor, claimed the remainder of the recording was “exculpatory from the point of view of the president.” He also said the president’s legal team listened to the tape numerous times and determined that the then-candidate said, “Don’t pay with cash.”
“Cohen then interrupts,” Mr. Giuliani told Laura Ingraham, host of “The Ingraham Angle” on Tuesday night. “And says, “No, no, no, I got it.’ And then you hear — distinctly … if you’re careful and you slow (the tape) it down — ‘check.’ And then Cohen follows with ‘No, no, no,’ and then quickly cuts off the tape.”
CNN conceded in their original story that the secretly recorded tape is not a smoking gun.
“Trump is heard saying ‘pay with cash’ but the audio is muddled and it’s unclear whether he suggests paying with cash or not paying,” CNN wrote. ‘Cohen says, “no, no’ but it is not clear what is said next.”
However, when reviewed multiple times by PPD, it appears that either Mr. Cohen or his then-client and candidate did say “check” after the former’s apparent admission that cash wasn’t an option.
COHEN: All the stuff. Because — here, you never know where that company — you never know what he’s —
TRUMP: Maybe he gets hit by a truck.
COHEN: Correct. So, I’m all over that. And, I spoke to Allen about it, when it comes time for the financing, which will be —
TRUMP: Wait a sec, what financing?
COHEN: Well, I’ll have to pay him something.
TRUMP: [MUFFLED but sounds like “Don’t”] pay with cash.
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
This is a huge week for an amalgamation of macro economic data, including second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GD) and corporate earnings. Approximately one-third of the S&P 500 will be reporting earnings this week, with the consensus being for bottom line increases in the neighborhood of 20%.
Backing this up are 2 very significant supporting details.
First, top line revenue numbers are expected to show double digit increases, giving credence to the “quality” of bottom line EPS numbers being legitimized with an impressive foundation. In English, this means that the earnings gains we will see are not just “manufactured” by companies buying back their own stock, or simply a “one time” benefit from the recently lowered corporate tax rate.
Secondly, we are getting no indication at all that guidance for earnings estimates in Q3 are being tapped down. In other words, the significant improvement in Q2 earnings will not be at the expense of Q3 earnings.
On the Macro story, all eyes will be of the heavily anticipated initial “advance” report on 2Q GDP that will be released Friday morning. I had been skeptical mid way through the quarter, but it now appears highly likely that the advance Q2 GDP report will print with a 4% handle.
There is a group loosely affiliated with the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank called the Atlanta FED GDPNow that provides a running forecast of GDP projections for upcoming quarterly reports. It is widely followed, and has a reasonable track record. They are currently in print with a 4.5% forecast for Q2.
Their final forecasts can and do vary from the actual tabulations from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). But I have rarely seen a variance of more than 0.5%.
How is it possible that we hit 4% GDP for Q2? Let’s look at the path of GDP since the beginning of 2017.
Here’s where so many amateurs in the financial media got it so horribly wrong. After the Q1 GDP numbers came in we heard repeatedly for many weeks, that economic growth had declined for 3 consecutive quarters.
Of course they were not looking at it the right way. Each quarter of the year has certain factors that impact everything that contributes to GDP.
Q1 has shown underperformance for the economy for 5 to 6 years, with 1 exception. Now, note that Q1 2018 was an improvement over Q1 2017 by +0.8.
If the rest of the quarterly GDP reports for 2018 show similar improvement, it would be reasonable to see Q2 at +4.0%, Q3 at +3.9% and Q4 at +3.7%. If we actually hit those numbers it would give us GDP growth for 2018 of +3.4%.
That would be the highest annual GDP growth for at least 10 years, likely longer.
“I’m not YET predicting we’ll hit 3.4% annual GDP growth for 2018,” Tim Anderson, Managing Director of TJM Investments, LLC. “But if we do, ‘experts’ who told us for years that 1.5% to 2.0 % was the ‘new normal’ and the demographics of our aging workforce make it unreasonable to expect anything near 3% GDP growth for at least a decade, will have no choice but to blame it on the Russians.”
A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 631,000, despite a decline in the median sales price.
The New residential construction report released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) joins a list of weaker housing data for the month.
New home sales after June are 5.3% (±17.1%) below the revised May rate of 666,000, but still 2.4% (±24.0%) above the June 2017 estimate of 616,000.
Sales Price
The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2018 was $302,100, marking a 2.5% decline. The average sales price was $363,300.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 301,000. This represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate.
High school students gather to protest in opposition of Donald Trump’s presidential election victory outside of City Hall in San Francisco in November 2016. (Photo: AP)
The liberal city of San Francisco began registering illegal immigrants to register to vote in the November election for the city school board, reported The San Francisco Chronicle. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds the idea of allowing non-citizens to vote is very unpopular.
When asked, “Should illegal immigrants be allowed to vote if they can prove that they live in this country and pay taxes?” a whopping 59% of likely voters said no, while just 35% disagreed.
Only 28% of men supported the idea, while more than two-thirds (67%) opposed it. Women are also opposed — by a 41% to 53% margin — though are more likely than men to support it.
Democrats support the idea by a 54% to 37% margin, but Republicans and voters unaffiliated with either party are adamantly opposed, 77% to 18% and 66% to 30%, respectively.
When asked, “Do you or favor oppose letting illegal immigrants vote for local officials in the area where you live? ” an even larger 62% said no, while just 31% disagreed. Again, men were more likely than women to oppose the idea, though both genders solidly do oppose it.
An identical percentage of men (28%) support allowing illegal immigrants to vote for local officials in the area they live, while more than two-thirds (69%) are opposed. Women are also opposed — by a 34% to 57% margin — a larger disparity.
Democrats again support this idea by a 53% to 40% margin, but Republicans and voters unaffiliated with either party are solidly opposed, 83% to 15% and 67% to 22%, respectively.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted July 19 and 22, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
An American Flag flying in front of a U.S. manufacturing factory. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Richmond Federal Reserve’s Fifth District Manufacturing Survey expanded at a slower pace in July, but growth in regional factory activity remains solid. The composite manufacturing index fell from 21 in June to 20 in July.
The decrease was fueled by a decline in the employment and shipments indexes, even as the other component (new orders) remained unchanged. Firms were optimistic in July, expecting to see robust growth across most indicators in the coming months.
Manufacturing employment growth slowed in July, as the employment index fell from 23 in June to 22 in July. As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) has repeatedly reported, manufacturing firms are no longer concerned about the tax and regulatory environment.
Instead they continue to struggle to find skilled workers they need and expect this struggle with the skills gap to continue over the next 6 months.
Though both increased, manufacturing firms reported that the gap between growth in prices paid and prices received narrowed for the month. Respondents expect growth in prices received to continue to accelerate in coming months. However, they expect the growth in prices paid to slow.
A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in May from the previous month. The previously reported 0.1% increase in April was revised upward to 0.2%.
The reading misses from the FHFA monthly HPI — which is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — missed the 0.4% consensus forecast. From May 2017 to May 2018, house prices were up 6.4%, matching the consensus forecast.
For the 9 census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from April 2018 to May 2018 ranged from -0.6% in the East North Central division to +1.5% in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.9% in the West South Central division to +9.1 percent in the Mountain division.
Complete historical downloadable data and HPI release dates for 2018 are available on the HPI page.
President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with then-acting Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie after informing him that he will be nominating him to be the new Secretary of the VA, during the Prison Reform Summit at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 18, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)
The U.S. Senate on Monday voted 86-9-5 to confirm Robert Wilkie as the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Mr. Wilkie, who was serving as acting-secretary, replaces David Shulkin, a holdover from the Obama administration fired by President Donald Trump amid scandal.
“I applaud the United States Senate for confirming Robert Wilkie as the Secretary of Veterans Affairs. Mr. Wilkie has dedicated his life to serving his country with honor and pride,” President Donald Trump said in a statement. “He has displayed great patriotism and a commitment to supporting and empowering America’s armed forces and veterans.”
Mr. Wilkie wasn’t the president’s first choice for the role. Admiral Ronny Jackson, MD withdrew as the nominee after Senator Jon Tester, D-Mont., leveled baseless and unsubstantiated allegations against him. His nomination was railroaded before those allegations were debunked.
“Under his leadership, I have no doubt that the Department of Veterans Affairs will continue to make strides in honoring and protecting the heroic men and women who have served our Nation with distinction.”
A judge presses down on an “Approved” stamp to approve an application before the court. (Photo via Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock /Fair Use)
The newly-released documents used to justify the FISA warrant application to spy against Carter Page confirm crucial details of the memo largely prepared by Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., and other Republicans on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI).
Among those details is the charge the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department (DOJ) misled the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad.
The heavily-redacted documents make it clear the FBI and DOJ — in order to obtain the FISA warrant to spy on Mr. Page — relied upon the salacious and unverified dossier put together by former MI6 British intelligence official Christopher Steele, identified as Source #1.
It’s clear they went out of their way to not fully disclose the political nature of the dossier, their use of circular reporting to support it and that much of the information in it is materially false. The dossier was funded by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the campaign for Hillary Clinton, identified as Political Party #2 and Candidate #2.
Yet, the FBI did not tell the FISC that Political Party #2 and Candidate #2 paid for the dossier as political opposition research against Candidate #1.
But the question remains: Why haven’t we heard of reprimands from the FISC judge or judges who were misled?
Andrew McCarthy, a former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, called the application “appalling” and suggested that the judges need to be questioned.
“I said this could never happen. This is so bad that they should be looking at the judges who signed off on this stuff, not just the people who gave it,” Mr. McCarthy said. “It is so bad it screams out at you.”
Robert Barnes, a high-profile Malibu-based defense attorney, tweeted the FISA warrant was “issued from one primary source: #FakeNews stories.”
Publicly-released documents used to support the warrant don’t specifically name the FISC judges who signed off on the initial or subsequent FISA warrants relevant to the Trump campaign. But only three currently sit on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court in the District of Columbia (DC).
U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras, who presided over the case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, is one of them. He had a personal relationship with Peter Strzok, the corrupt counterintelligence agent at the center of both the Clinton email case and the Russian interference probe.
He was nominated to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by Barack Obama on July 28, 2011. The U.S. Senate confirmed the nomination on March 22, 2012, and the court’s newest member received his commission on March 23, 2012.
But it’s another date that’s of interest. Judge Contreras, referred to in the text messages by his first name, was designated to the FISC on May 19, 2016. That’s only 5 months before the FBI sought to obtain the FISA warrant to spy on Mr. Page, which ultimately led to the collection of incidental intelligence completely unrelated to Russia.
“Rudy is on the FISC! Did you know that?” Ms. Page texted Mr. Strzok on July 25, 2016. “Just appointed two months ago.”
“I did,” Mr. Strzok replied. “We talked about it before and after. I need to get together with him.”
Screenshot of FBI officials Strzok-Page text messages.
The unethical conflict of interest, which is clear from a batch of text messages between Mr. Strzok and then-FBI lawyer Lisa Page, was only recently discovered after Judge Contreras recused himself from the Flynn case, without explanation.
Mr. Strzok mentions “a graduation party” he and Judge Contreras had attended together and even stressed the need for “being circumspect in talking to him in terms of not placing him into a situation where he’d have to recuse himself.”
Page replied that she couldn’t “imagine either one of you could talk about anything in detail meaningful enough to warrant recusal.”
“Standards for recusal are quite high,” she adds. “I just don’t think this poses an actual conflict. And he doesn’t know what you do?”
Screenshot of FBI officials Strzok-Page text messages.
“Generally he does know what I do. Not the level or scope or area,” Mr. Strzok messaged. “But he’s super thoughtful and rigorous about ethics and conflicts.”
He was replaced by District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, a no-nonsense man who was also appointed by Mr. Obama. Judge Sullivan ended a State Department stonewall of a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed by Judicial Watch.
The material provided was damning to Mrs. Clinton and the FBI investigation into her use of a private server to conduct official State business.
FBI agents, to include Mr. Strzok, interviewed General Flynn over his conversation with a Russian ambassador. Before being fired, former FBI director James Comey told members of Congress during a closed-door session that the team concluded General Flynn did not knowing lie to federal agents and did not believe charges were warranted.
However, Special Counsel Robert Mueller decided to override those recommendations and charge General Flynn, who was forced to sell his house to pay his legal fees only to end up having to plead guilty. Mr. Mueller recruited both Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page to his Democrat-dominated team before he fired them last summer in an attempt to avoid criticism.
And with good reason.
Text messages uncovered by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz reveal Mr. Strzok vowed to prevent Mr. Trump from becoming President of the United States. The messages were previously excluded from disclosures to members of Congress. Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page, who were also having an extramarital affair, oozed a loathing for the candidate and his supporters.
Lisa Page: “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”
Peter Strzok: “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”
Screenshot of FBI officials Strzok-Page text messages.
Following the election, Ms. Page wrote addressing the previous conversation.
Page: “You promised me this wouldn’t happen.”
Previously obtained text messages also show the two lovers discussed needing to talk to “Andy” about an “insurance policy” in the event President Trump defeated Mrs. Clinton, a reference to fired former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.
“I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office — that there’s no way he gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40,” Mr. Strzok wrote to Ms. Page.
Ms. Page, along with FBI lawyer Jim Baker, both of whom worked closely with Mr. Comey, resigned from the agency in May. Mr. Strzok has been relieved of his post as head of the counterintelligence department and Inspector General Michael Horowitz recommended criminal charges against Mr. McCabe for lack of candor, or lying, including under oath.
Mr. McCabe has requested immunity from Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Ia., in exchange for testimony and emails damaging to his former boss, Mr. Comey.
Nevertheless, the debate again has raised concerns over these secret government surveillance programs. Critics of FISA argue the FISC is nothing more than a rubber stamp for federal prosecutors run amok. Supporters contend the process is rigorous and has built-in safe-guards, though they often allude them in discussion.
A timely DOJ report sent to Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, clearly lends support to the former.
In 2015, the secretive court approved all of the 1,456 electronic wiretap requested by DOJ lawyers. Of the 1,456 requests, the FISC only required the government to modify 80 of them before approval.
The FISC approved all 142 of the requests to force companies to turn over electronic records in bulk. The government initially presented the court with 1,457 wiretap requests, but withdrew one.
Similarly, at an October 26 hearing before the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the Obama Administration admitted to gross abuse. The government said NSA intercept database searches “routinely” violated Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights. The judge did nothing of consequence.
That hearing took place less than two weeks before President Trump was elected.
A under contract sign on a home previously for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said existing home sales declined for the third straight month in June.
Total existing-home sales — which are completed transactions including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — fell 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in June. That’s down from a downwardly revised 5.41 million in May.
“There continues to be a mismatch since the spring between the growing level of homebuyer demand in most of the country in relation to the actual pace of home sales, which are declining,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said. “The root cause is without a doubt the severe housing shortage that is not releasing its grip on the nation’s housing market.”
With last month’s decline, sales are now 2.2% below a year ago.
“What is for sale in most areas is going under contract very fast and in many cases, has multiple offers,” Mr. Yun added. “This dynamic is keeping home price growth elevated, pricing out would-be buyers and ultimately slowing sales.”
The consensus forecast called for a gain to 5.44 million, and a range of 5.35 million to 5.52 million.
Total housing inventory at the end of the month was higher by 4.3% to 1.95 million existing homes available for sale. That’s now 0.5% higher than a year ago (1.94 million) – the first year-over-year increase since June 2015. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace (4.2 months a year ago).
Properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days in June, unchanged from the last 3 months and down from 28 days a year ago. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month.
“It’s important to note that despite the modest year-over-year rise in inventory, the current level is far from what’s needed to satisfy demand levels,” Mr. Yun continued. “Furthermore, it remains to be seen if this modest increase will stick, given the fact that the robust economy is bringing more interested buyers into the market, and new home construction is failing to keep up.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $276,900, surpassing last month as the new all-time high and up 5.2% from June 2017 ($263,300). The month of June was the 76th straight month of year-over-year price increases.
Regionally, declines in the South and West exceeded sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest.
the Northeast jumped 5.9 percent to an annual rate of 720,000, but are still 4.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $305,900, which is up 3.3 percent from June 2017.
In the Midwest, existing home sales ticked up 0.8% to an annual rate of 1.27 million in June, but are 3.1% below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $218,800, a gain of 3.5% from a year ago.
In the South, existing home sales declined by 2.2% to an annual rate of 2.25 million in June, but still remain 0.4% above levels posted a year ago. The median price in the South was $237,500, a 2.7% gain from a year ago.
In the West, existing home sales declined 2.6% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in June, and are now 5.0% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $417,400, up 10.2% from June 2017.
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