Group of friends sitting outdoors with shopping bags; several people holding smartphones and tablets. (Photo: AdobeStock/ OneInchPunch/PPD)
A preliminary reading for consumer sentiment in July dipped slightly from 98.2 to 97.1, but job and income prospects fuel “continuing strength.” While a decline, the reading is still equal to the average in the prior twelve months (97.7) and since the start of 2017 (97.4).
Further, consumers under age 45 are expected the largest income gains since July 2000.
“So far, the strength in jobs and incomes has overcome higher inflation and interest rates. The darkening cloud on the horizon, however, is due to rising concerns about the potential negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy,” Richard Curtain, the Chief Economist at Survey of Consumers said. “Negative concerns about the impact of tariffs have recently accelerated, rising from 15% in May, to 21% in June, and 38% in July.”
Among those in the top third of the income distribution, who represent half of consumer spending, 52% negatively mentioned the impact of tariffs on the economy in early July.
The primary concerns expressed by consumers were a decline in the future pace of economic growth and an uptick in inflation,” Mr. Curtain added. “Among those who expressed negative views of the tariffs, the Expectations Index was 30.5 points below those who made no mention of tariffs, and in addition, the expected inflation rate was six-tenths of a percentage point higher.”
U.S. President Donald Trump and his nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh talk during an announcement event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., July 9, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)
Republicans candidates for the U.S. Senate seized on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court to slam their vulnerable Democratic opponents. President Donald Trump on Monday announced the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, who will retire effective July 31.
With Republicans trailing on the generic ballot by similar margins as Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton throughout the summer, Republicans are hoping the issue of the Supreme Court will fire up their base. The president carried voters who cited Supreme Court appointments as the most important factor by a 56% to 41% margin.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) is also launching an effort to once again turn Supreme Court appointments into a dominant issue in 10 key states ahead of the midterm elections. That effort includes an extensive field program, digital ads and op-eds.
“All these Democrats who are hugging President Trump and telling their voters, “We’ll support the president,” they are going to be put to the test,” RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said, adding “if they will not support a mainstream, conservative jurist, they are going to show their voters that they are lying.”
The first phase is already underway, which includes not relying on the media to tell voters about Judge Kavanaugh and his qualifications. The RNC and candidates are speaking directly to voters in these states in an attempt to reenergize their base and win over the persuadable electorate.
Senator Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., is one of the most vulnerable Democrats to face reelection in November. President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in The Hoosier State by roughly 20 points, 56.5% to 37.5%. It would not be unfair to attribute his election in 2016 to a flawed Republican candidate.
But this time he faces Mike Braun, a former businessman who defeated two sitting congressman to become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Mr. Braun told People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) in a statement that Judge Kavanaugh would make “another outstanding justice,” in addition to Justice Neil Gorsuch, whom the president first nominated.
While he expects Senator Donnelly to eventually vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh, as he did with Justice Gorsuch, he says it’s a ploy to save his political skin.
“His credentials are impeccable – he has already served with distinction as an Appellate Judge on the prestigious Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia – and he will interpret the Constitution as written rather than legislate from the bench,” Mr. Braun said. “I am sure Senator Donnelly will eventually say that he will vote for him, because it is an election year.”
“But I can immediately say without hesitation that I would support this nomination and I hope the Senate moves quickly to confirm the President’s choice.”
Recent polling puts Mr. Braun ahead of the incumbent in Vice President Mike Pence’s home state. But surveys also give Senator Jon Tester, D-Mont., the edge against Republican Matt Rosendale, though the PPD Election Projection Model views that lead as inflated.
“For 8 years, @JonTester stood side by side w/ Obama and voted for his judicial nominees 99% OF THE TIME ex: Sotomayor & Kagan,” Mr. Rosendale tweeted. “When Trump nominated Gorsuch, he voted AGAINST a fellow Westerner who is committed to following the Constitution & protecting our #2A … #mtsen #mtpol”
For 8 years, @JonTester stood side by side w/ Obama and voted for his judicial nominees 99% OF THE TIME ex: Sotomayor & Kagan. When Trump nominated Gorsuch, he voted AGAINST a fellow Westerner who is committed to following the Constitution & protecting our #2A … #mtsen#mtpolhttps://t.co/d0HOOopCdx
“Jon Tester took out a full-page ad when President Trump came to Montana saying, ‘I support President Trump on all these issues, I will work with him,'” Chairwoman McDaniel added. “So, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin, Tester, Nelson, they’re all going to be put to the test and this is going to be a dividing line for them with their voters.”
President Trump visited the conservative state to support Mr. Rosendale during the first week of July, and he slammed Senator Tester. At a rally in Great Falls, he said voters “deserve a Senator who votes like he’s from Montana.”
“You don’t just deserve a Senator who talks like he’s from Montana. You deserve a Senator who votes like he’s from Montana.”
Even though Judge Kavanaugh is expected to get a vote before November, and Americans expecting him to be confirmed, the president is likely to get another appointment. Big Data Poll has repeatedly found that Republican voters are more enthusiastic about court appointments than Democrats.
That enthusiasm could give their candidates a boost at the ballot box.
Governor Rick Scott released an ad called “Toe the Line,” which highlights how Senator Bill Nelson, D-Fla., didn’t oppose any of the roughly 700 judicial nominees from a Democratic president.
The once-thought to be moderate incumbent has moved far to the left in a state that has inched to the right. Senator Nelson, who has never faced an opponent as strong as he will this cycle, is the only Democrat currently holding a statewide office in Florida.
Governor Scott raised a record $10.7 million in less than 3 months in his campaign, not including candidate contributions.
In Wisconsin, which isn’t portrayed by polls and election projection models as particularly competitive, candidate Leah Vukmir slammed Senator Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., for committing to oppose President Trump’s nominee, without even meeting with him.
“Sen. Baldwin’s obstruction on Judge Kavanaugh’s appointment is proof that she’d rather stand with her liberal activist San Francisco donors than uphold the Constitution. When Wisconsin voters elected President Trump, they knew he’d choose judges who would uphold the Constitution. Sen. Baldwin’s ‘no’ vote will directly contradict the will of the people. Kavanaugh is an extremely well-qualified nominee who deserves our support.”
The race could prove to be a sleeper. Senator Baldwin only defeated Tommy Thompson in 2012 by about 5 points, 51.4% to 45.9%. Barack Obama won’t be on the ballot this time around and polls also indicated The Badger State wasn’t competitive in 2016, either.
However, President Trump scored a shocking upset over Mrs. Clinton in Wisconsin, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
The second phase of the RNC effort will begin about two weeks before the confirmation hearings begin, and will focus on mobilizing voters pressure their senators to confirm Judge Kavanaugh. It is targeting Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
U.S. Border Patrol agents prepare to launch a raid by the Rio Grande that separates the U.S. from Mexico in McAllen, Texas, on Tuesday, November 25, 2014. The troopers patrol the river all day to catch illegal immigrants attempting to cross the border. (Photo: Reuters)
The Trump Administration has completed the court-ordered reunification of migrant children under the age of 5, who were impacted by the policy of family separation at the southern border. Of the 103 children under age 5 covered by the court case, roughly half were determined to be ineligible for reunification.
Only 57 children were determined to be eligible and have been reunified with their families as of 7:00 a.m. EST on July 12.
However, 46 migrant children were acknowledged by the court to be ineligible for reunification or determined by court-approved criteria from the Justice Department (DOJ), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
“Throughout the reunification process, our goal has been the well-being of the children and returning them to a safe environment,” Attorney General Jeff Sessions, DHS Secretary Kirsten Nielson, and HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a joint statement. “Our agencies’ careful vetting procedures helped prevent the reunification of children with an alleged murderer, an adult convicted of child cruelty, and adults determined not to be the parent of the child.”
Corporate media outlets and their allies in the Democratic Party have leveled severe accusations about the policy of family separation pertaining to illegal immigrants who refused to use a legal port of entry at the southern border. In June, they cheered a decision by a federal judge in California that ordered a halt to most family separations and reunification of all families.
“Plaintiffs have demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits, irreparable harm, and that the balance of equities and the public interest weigh in their favor, thus warranting issuance of a preliminary injunction,” U.S. District Court Judge Dana Sabraw wrote in the decision.
Of those 46, a whopping 22 have been found ineligible due to safety concerns posed by the adults in question. Of those, 11 adults have a serious criminal history. That includes charges or convictions for child cruelty, kidnapping, murder, human smuggling, domestic violence, etc.
“Certain facts remain: The American people gave this administration a mandate to end the lawlessness at the border, and President Trump is keeping his promise to do exactly that,” read the joint statement. “Our message has been clear all along: Do not risk your own life or the life of your child by attempting to enter the United States illegally.”
“Apply lawfully and wait your turn.”
Seven of those adults were proven to not even be the child’s parent. Yet another adult had a falsified birth certificate. One was alleged to have abused the child, another one planned to house the child with an adult charged with sexually abusing a child and one is being treated for a communicable disease.
The remaining 24 migrant children are not currently eligible for reunification due to other negative circumstances surrounding the adults in question.
Of those, 12 adults have been deported and are being contacted, while 9 adults are in custody of the U.S. Marshals Service for other criminal offenses. Two adults are in custody of state jails for other various offenses and 1 adult’s location has been unknown for over a year.
“The American immigration system is the most generous in the world, but we are a nation of laws and we intend to continue enforcing those laws,” General Sessions, Secretary Nielson and Secretary Azar added. “Establishing the immigration system demanded of our political leaders by the American people for more than 30 years—one that serves the national interest—will allow our nation to further realize the foundation of freedom, safety, and prosperity we inherited from our Founders.”
Rod Rosenstein and Mick Mulvaney respond to a question from reporters. (Photos: AP/Reuters)
The Trump Administration announced the creation of the Task Force on Market Integrity and Consumer Fraud. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who will serve as Chair of the Task Force, was joined in the announcement by Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)Acting Director Mick Mulvaney, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Jay Clayton and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Joe Simons.
“Fraud committed by companies and their employees has a devastating impact on American citizens in the financial markets, the health care sector, and elsewhere,” said Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein. “The President’s order directs the Task Force to invite participation from our law enforcement partners at many departments and agencies. By working together, we can achieve more effective and efficient outcomes.”
The Task Force is a result of President Donald Trump’s executive order providing guidance for the investigation and prosecution of cases involving fraud on the government, the financial markets and consumers.
Last year, the Trump Administration obtained more than $3.7 billion in settlements and judgments from civil cases involving fraud against the government. That represents a large chunk of the total $56 billion in recoveries since 1986.
President Trump has directed the Task Force to invite the Departments of Treasury, Defense, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, and more than a dozen other agencies and departments to participate.
“As Acting Director of the Bureau, one of my top priorities has been to go after bad actors,” said Acting Director Mulvaney said. “This task force is an example of the growing cooperation of the Bureau’s work with other federal and state authorities to combat a multitude of bad actors out there today.”
The Trump Administration has made the prosecution of fraud and the recovery of monetary damage as a result a top priority. In July 2017, it announced the largest healthcare fraud bust in U.S. history, charging more than 400 defendants in federal 41 districts. In June 2018, the administration announced an even bigger bust, breaking the record previously set last July.
“At the SEC we work every day to protect Main Street investors,” said SEC Chairman Clayton. “This Task Force will allow us to build on the close partnerships we have with our fellow regulators and law enforcement agencies to deter and combat retail fraud.”
Now, several of the same agencies behind those efforts will refocus — or, rather redouble their efforts.
“Stopping fraud against consumers is at the heart of the FTC’s mission,” said FTC Chairman Joe Simons. “The FTC looks forward to further collaboration with the Department of Justice and other agencies through participation in this Task Force, so we can leverage our skills and resources to protect as many consumers as possible.”
The Justice Department (DOJ) recently announced they had charged three Long Island residents with running a fraudulent mass-mailing scheme that tricked thousands of consumers — many elderly — into paying at least $30 million in fees for falsely promised prizes.
“The new Task Force on Market Integrity and Consumer Fraud will allow us to do even more,” Mr. Rosenstein added.
Initial jobless claims fell 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ending July 7, the U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported. The previous week was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000.
The 4-week moving average came in at 223,000, a decline of 1,750 from the previous week, which was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending June 30. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 30 was 1,739,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
The previous week’s level was revised up 3,000 from 1,739,000 to 1,742,000.
The 4-week moving average rose 9,500 from the prior week’s revised level to 1,728,500, off the lowest level since 1973. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 1,718,250 to 1,719,000
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending June 23.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 23 were in the Virgin Islands (2.4), Alaska (2.1), Connecticut (2.0), New Jersey (2.0), Pennsylvania (2.0), Puerto Rico (2.0), California (1.9), Illinois (1.6), Rhode Island (1.6), and the District of Columbia (1.4).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 30 were in Massachusetts (+4,795), New Jersey (+4,364), Kentucky (+4,024), New York (+2,771), and Connecticut (+2,642), while the largest decreases were in California (- 6,404), Pennsylvania (-3,966), Maryland (-2,500), Wisconsin (-1,322), and Oregon (-490).
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Florida Gov. Rick Scott attends the “First for Jobs” rally with roughly 600 people on March 14, 2017. (Photo: Carolyn Allen)
Governor Rick Scott raised a record $10.7 million in less than 3 months in his campaign for U.S. Senate in Florida, not including candidate contributions. Not only is that a historic amount for a race that was never even supposed to be competitive, but it surpasses all other U.S. Senate candidates cycle.
“Florida families have had enough of career politicians in Washington who care more about their own jobs than the wellbeing of the families they serve,” Gov. Scott said in a statement. “We’re on a mission to reform Washington so that it actually works for us, and I appreciate the support of everyone who has come together to help us reach this goal.”
Gov. Scott has now raised the most ever in a quarter by a U.S. Senate candidate in Florida and received support in the form of campaign contributions from all of Florida’s 67 counties. According to the report, more than 75% of more than 11,000 contributors gave less than $500.
“This historic more than $10.7 million fundraising quarter shows that the opportunity to elect Governor Rick Scott and send a career politician back home has Floridians more excited than ever before,” Florida Finance Chairwoman Darlene Jordan. “No other Senate campaign has accomplished what Governor Scott’s has, and it would not be possible without the hard work of our many supporters.”
The extremely popular Republican governor of the Sunshine State is challenging Senator Bill Nelson, D-Fla., the state’s senior but vulnerable incumbent. He is also the only Democrat currently holding a statewide office in Florida, which shifted significantly toward Republicans under Barack Obama.
The Scott campaign also touted that 80% of all their contributions came from Florida residents. Only 3.2% of all contributions are from Political Action Committees (PACs).
“Americans across the country have made it clear that they are ready to have a real leader in Washington, and every single dollar raised puts us one step closer to electing Governor Rick Scott to the U.S. Senate,” National Finance Chairman Thomas O. Hicks said.
“We appreciate everyone who helped us reach this record-breaking fundraising quarter of more than $10.7 million and we look forward to continuing this unmatched success.”
While Gov. Scott won both his two terms in tight gubernatorial contests, his approval and favorability ratings have soared amid a statewide economic resurgence. The Florida economy under the former businessman’s stewardship has outperformed the nation and his own campaign promises.
“Voters were already changing their tune on Governor Scott for economic reasons. But it was during his handling of Hurricane Irma when we saw his numbers just take off,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “There was only one candidate who could defeat Senator Nelson, whose worst nightmare unfortunately for Democrats has come true.”
The PPD Sunshine State Battleground Poll, which is conducted by Big Data Poll, found Gov. Scott holding a slight lead over Senator Nelson. A more recent survey conducted by SurveyMonkey that was released this week also found Mr. Scott besting Mr. Nelson, 49% to 46%.
In 2000, Senator Nelson was elected to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Connie Mack III. He was reelected in 2006 with 60% of the vote and in 2012 with 55% of the vote. But he has never faced a serious challenger and his image as a moderate has been shattered as a result of unfettered loyalty to his party.
“By raising more than $10.7 million in less than three months, we are sending a message to Washington that the time of career politicians is over – and our momentum is not slowing down,” Gov. Scott added. “I look forward to continuing to show Washington and the rest of the country what it means to get to work.”
The race for U.S. Senate in Florida is rated a BATTLEGROUND on the PPD Senate Election Projection Model.
Employees have short meeting in the warehouse to check business inventory levels of goods. First in first out. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The U.S. Census Bureau report on wholesale trade statistics shows business inventories building in May under the pressure of solid sales.
Sales
Sales of merchant wholesalers in May — except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes — came in at $509.0 billion. That’s up 2.5% (±0.4) from the revised April level and 11.8% (±3.3) higher than in May 2017.
The percentage change from March 2018 to April 2018 was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.8% (±0.4) to up a much stronger 1.4% (±0.4).
Inventories
Total inventories of merchant wholesalers — except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes — came in at $633.5 billion at the end of May. That’s up 0.6% (±0.2) from the revised April level.
Total inventories were up 5.9% (±3.7) from the revised May 2017 level.
The percentage change from April 2018 to May 2018 was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.5% (±0.2) to up 0.6% (±0.2).
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The May inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.24. The May 2017 ratio was 1.31.
Digital composite of the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) building and the American flag. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The percentage of voters who want the U.S. Senate to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is higher than it was for Elena Kagan. A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds voters overwhelmingly expect him to be confirmed to replace Anthony Kennedy, for whom Judge Kavanaugh once clerked.
President Donald Trump on Monday nominated Judge Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, who announced a few weeks ago that he would retire, effective July 31. Judge Kavanaugh, 53, serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
Forty-four percent (44%) say based on what they know at this time that the U.S. Senate should confirm him, noticeably higher than the 33% who felt that way about Justice Kagan in May 2010. That’s in line with the percentage (45%) who said the same of Justice Sonia Sotomayor in May 2009.
Thirty-eight percent (38%) say he should not be confirmed, but a sizable 19% are undecided.
Eighty-three percent (83%) believe President Trump’s second nominee is likely to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, with 47% saying it’s “very likely” and another 36% saying it’s at least “somewhat likely.” This is in line with perceptions after the nomination of Justice Neil Gorsuch early last year.
But no one polled as high as President Trump’s first nominee, Justice Neil Gorsuch. By comparison, 51% of voters said Gorsuch should be confirmed just after his nomination in early February 2017.
The survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted on July 10, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.
I always respond with a giant caveat about economists being lousy forecasters, and I also warn that there are many policies that determine prosperity, which makes it inherently difficult to estimate the impact of one policy.
But when pressed, I’ll toss out a number – say 2/10ths of 1 percent. And that type of answer almost always seems to disappoint the audience. It’s as if there’s a collective assessment that we shouldn’t waste time fighting for or against certain policies if the impact on growth is so trivially small.
And if you’re planning on dying in the next six months, then maybe it isn’t worth it. In reality, though, even small differences in growth can make a big difference to prosperity if they can be sustained.
This chart, which starts with the Commerce Department’s estimate of GDP for 2017 and is then adjusted for the Census Bureau’s population projections, shows how a “trivial” increase in the growth rate over the next 25 years winds up generating big increases in per-capita GDP.
Maybe I’m not a big and bold thinker, but this kind of improvement is worth fighting for.
Back in 2014, I tried to make this same point with a chart showing how long it takes an economy to double in size based on different growth rates.
It seems obvious that it’s better to be at the top of that chart, like Hong Kong and Singapore, instead of the bottom, like Italy or Greece.
And Veronique de Rugy, in a column for National Review, shared a more sophisticated version of the chart. At the risk of stating the obvious, you want the big circles to happen faster.
Let’s share one more chart, and I put it together because I’m sometimes asked about the potential impact on growth if all libertarian policies were adopted?
Once again, I give a standard caveat about economists and forecasting. And I also explain the principle of convergence so the audience understands it’s more difficult for a rich country to achieve very high growth rates.
But eventually I’ll speculate that an ideal set of policies might increase growth by 1 percent annually.
Which, once again, doesn’t seem to impress people.
In the future, though, I’m going to share this chart, showing historical numbers for U.S. and Mexican per-capita GDP from the Maddison database, augmented by a second (yellow) line showing where America would be if per-capita GDP increased by one-percentage point less each year.
In other words, an additional percentage point of growth may not sound amazingly impressive, but over time it generates amazingly impressive outcomes.
The bottom line is that even trivial pro-growth reforms are worth the effort. Even if it takes a few years for the growth to materialize or if the growth only lasts for a limited period of time.
Producer Price Index (PPI) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in June, beating the forecast. Economists had forecast a 0.1% to 0.3% range.
The gain was largely fueled by a rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.4% gain in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods ticked up 0.1%.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services gained 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May. Economists had forecast a 0.2% gain.
For the 12 months ended in June, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 2.7%.
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