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World

Banner for tourism with passport, tickets and famous landmarks, travel advisory levels infographic. (Photo: AdobeStock/Pro_Vector)

Banner for tourism with passport, tickets and famous landmarks, travel advisory levels infographic. (Photo: AdobeStock/Pro_Vector)

The U.S. State Department renewed its Travel Advisory for Haiti on Tuesday, July 9, due to civil unrest and increased crime. The Level 4: Do Not Travel advisory comes in response to “frequent and unpredictable” violent protests, tire burning and road blockages.

On Monday, July 9, the U.S. government authorized the voluntary departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and their families.

“Right now, the U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens,” the Office of the Spokesperson wrote PPD in an email. “Violent crime, such as armed robbery, is common. Local police may lack the resources to respond effectively to serious criminal incidents or emergencies.”

Gasoline prices were set to rise 38% in Haiti, while diesel and kerosene prices were to increase 47% and 51%, respectively. Prime Minister Jack Guy Lafontant on Saturday announced a temporary halt to the price increases and called for calm, but those calls have thus far done unanswered.

“Embassy employees are discouraged, and in some instances prohibited, from walking in city neighborhoods, including Pétion Ville,” the State Department said. “After dark, Embassy personnel are prohibited from visiting establishments without secure, on-site parking.”

The State Department said even under normal circumstances the U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in some areas of Haiti. Several U.S. missionary groups are stranded after protestors burned barricades to prevent them from reaching the airport in the nation’s capital, Port-au-Prince.

“Travel outside of Port-au-Prince is prohibited after dark,” State added. “Embassy employees are under a curfew from 1:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. The use of public banks and ATMs by Embassy employees is prohibited at all times. Embassy personnel are prohibited from using any kind of public transportation throughout the country.”

The U.S. State Department renewed its Travel

Economy

A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)

A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)

The Small Business Optimism Index posted its sixth highest reading ever for the month of June, at 107.2, down 0.6 from May. Since December 2016, following the election of Donald Trump, the Index has averaged “an unprecedented” 105.4.

That’s far higher than the 45-year average of 98 and rivaling the all-time high of 108.0 in July 1983.

“Small business owners continue to report astounding optimism as they celebrate strong sales, the creation of jobs, and more profits,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “The first six months of the year have been very good to small business thanks to tax cuts, regulatory reform, and policies that help them grow.”

A net 10% of all small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past 3 months juxtaposed to the previous 3 months. While that’s down 5 points in June, it’s still one of the strongest readings in years.

This is the 7th consecutive strong month of reported sales gains, which were most frequent in manufacturing and the wholesale trades. As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, manufacturing employment hit a 9 1/2-year high in June.

“There was a fractional decline in the Index from May to June, statistically insignificant,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners are already seeing their bottom lines grow due to strong sales and regulatory relief and the new tax law is expected to push profits higher as the year progresses.”

A solid 63% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire, which is an increase of 5 points from last month and the highest level since September 1999. However, small businesses continue to sound the alarm over the skills gap, something the Trump Administration has launched an initiative to combat.

Fifty-five percent (55%) — and 87% of those hiring or trying to hire — reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.

The net percentage of small business owners reporting current inventory levels are “too low” gained 4 points to a net 0, a very positive indicator for demand. The reading confirms inventory reductions are a result of strong sales, rather than less certainty about the future.

The Small Business Optimism Index posted its

Politics

Brett Kavanaugh is sworn in as a judge in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia by Supreme Court Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy in a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House in Washington June 1, 2006. (Photo: Reuters)

Brett Kavanaugh is sworn in as a judge in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia by Supreme Court Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy in a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House in Washington June 1, 2006. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald Trump on Monday nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS). Judge Kavanaugh, 53, serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and has authored more than 300 opinions.

“In keeping with Ronald Reagan’s example, I do not ask a potential nominee about their personal beliefs. I am only concerned whether that nominee will faithfully uphold the Constitution,” President Trump said. “I am pleased to say that I have found without a doubt, such a person.”

“It is my honor and privilege to announce that I will nominate Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court.”

Justice Kennedy announced recently he would retire from the Court, effective July 31, 2018. It gives President Trump his second nomination to the Court and conservatives a chance to tip the ideological balance for a generation.

The president nominated Justice Neil Gorsuch during his first year in office, who along with Judge Kavanaugh co-clerked for Justice Kennedy.

“The Supreme Court is entrusted with protecting the crown jewel of the United States — the Constitution,” President Trump said, thanking “Justice Kennedy for a lifetime of distinguished service.”

Of Judge Kavanaugh authored opinions in the coveted and powerful D.C. Court of Appeals, more than a dozen were upheld by the High Court as the law of the land.

“No president has ever consulted more widely or has talked with people of more backgrounds in seeking a nominee to the Supreme Court,” Judge Kavanaugh said, adding he was “deeply honored” to be nominated to fill Justice Kennedy’s seat on the Court.

“Judge Brett Kavanaugh is a superbly qualified choice with a proven commitment to conservative constitutional jurisprudence,”  Club for Growth President David McIntosh said in a statement. “President Trump has demonstrated his commitment to economic conservatism and the Constitution with his nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh today, just as he did last year with his nomination of Justice Neil Gorsuch.

But not all conservatives were routing for the president to nominate Judge Kavanaugh, who authored an opinion on bulk metadata collection. Privacy advocates believe the government is violating the Fourth Amendment.

“I look forward to the upcoming hearings, reviewing the record, and meeting personally with Judge Kavanaugh, with an open mind,” libertarian-leaning Senator Rand Paul, R-Kty., said after the announcement.

The president said the nominee deserves “robust bipartisan support,” and although the Democratic Party as a whole will take unprecedented action to obstruct proceedings, he will have a chance to win over Senator Paul and others on Capitol Hill tomorrow and over the next few weeks.

“I will tell each senator that I revere the Constitution,” Judge Kavanaugh said. “I believe that an independent judiciary is the crown jewel of our constitutional republic.”

“If confirmed by the Senate, I will keep an open mind in every case, and I will always strive to preserve the Constitution of the United States and the American rule of law.”

Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Ia., the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said previously that the nominee would get a confirmation hearing within weeks.

“There is no one in America more qualified for this position, and no one more deserving,” President Trump said, calling the nominee “a judge’s judge.”

President Donald Trump on Monday nominated Judge Brett

Polls

Render illustration of Affirmative Action title on Legal Documents. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Render illustration of Affirmative Action title on Legal Documents. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Trump Administration rescinded 24 Obama-era guidance documents on affirmative action for college admissions, calling them “unnecessary, outdated, inconsistent with existing law, or otherwise improper.”

The decision impacted 7 letters from the Department of Education (DOE) and Justice Department (DOJ) that allowed school districts and universities to consider race in admissions. Democrats flipped their lids, again.

Catherine Lhamon, who served as assistant secretary for civil rights at the Education Department under Barack Obama, blasted President Donald Trump for the move, calling it a “strong signaling of a lack of support for diversity and inclusion in schools.”

But most Americans disagree with Ms. Lhamon, who now serves as the chair of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, and other critics.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 53% of American adults believe higher education should consider only the most qualified students for admission, not race. Only 37% believe “making sure there is enough racial diversity in the students they accept” is better.

While Americans are more evenly divided when asked about affirmative action programs in general, the trend in public opinion is moving against them. Now, only 37% favor them, while just as many (37%) are opposed. That compares to 40% who favored and 30% who opposed these programs a year ago.

Another 27% are undecided.

Further, only 16% think affirmative action programs have been a success, while 22% see them as a failure and 52% say they fall somewhere in between. Public opinion on the effectiveness of these programs has changed little over the past 10 years.

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on July 5 and 8, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.

Americans agree with Trump on affirmative action

Policy

Last week, I shared very grim data, going all the way back to 1880, on the growth of the welfare state.

I even claimed that the accompanying graph was the “western world’s most depressing chart” because it showed the dramatic increase in the burden of government spending for redistribution programs.

And I didn’t even mention that the numbers likely will get even worse because of changing demographics.

Now it’s time for the western world’s second-most depressing chart. Like the first chart, the data for this second chart comes from “Our World in Data,” only this time it shows the relentless and astounding (in a depressing way) expansion in tax burdens starting in 1868. It only shows four countries, but other western nations would show the same pattern.

What isn’t shown in this chart is that the tax burden used to be reasonable because governments generally did not have income taxes.

The United Kingdom was an early adopter, but France, Sweden, and the United States didn’t impose that onerous levy until the 1900s. And it’s no coincidence that the tax burden exploded once politicians learned to exploit that source of revenue.

An obvious lesson is that it is never a good idea to give politicians a new source of revenue. We see in the above chart what happened once nations imposed income taxes. We’ve also seen increases in fiscal burdens in nations that imposed value-added taxes, which is why Americans should fight to their dying breaths before allowing that levy in the United States).

From the perspective of politicians, they like new sources of revenue because that increases “tax capacity,” which is an Orwellian term that describes their ability to grab more money from the economy’s productive sector.

And here’s another chart from “Our world in data” showing how income taxes and VATs (along with income-tax withholding) have become ubiquitous.

 

Very depressing trends. Reminds me of the biased grading of tax regimes from the World Bank.

Let’s close with the tiny bit of good news from the website. Here’s a chart showing how top rates for the personal income tax dropped substantially between 1979 and 2002.

 

This happened, needless to say, because of tax competition. As globalization expanded, it became easier and easier for taxpayers to move themselves and/or their money from high-tax nations to low-tax jurisdictions.

Politicians thus were forced to lower tax rates so the geese with the golden eggs didn’t fly away.

Sadly, updated versions of this chart now show top tax rates heading in the wrong direction, in large part because tax havens have been weakened and politicians no longer feel as much competitive pressure.

Our World in Data shows the dramatic

Opinion

Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing 'em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.

Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing ’em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.

In 2016, I posed a rhetorical question about whether young people are so stupid that they shouldn’t be allowed to vote. After all, many of them thought Bernie Sanders would make a good president (of America, not Greece or Venezuela).

Well, maybe we really should increase the voting age. It seems 2016 was not an anomaly. Millennials are dangerously ignorant.

Here’s some analysis from CNN.

Millennials are…bringing a distinctly Millennial approach to policy and governing. And that might include Democratic socialism. Case in point: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 28-year-old Democratic socialist who won her primary in New York Tuesday in an upset over a 10-term incumbent. More than any other generation before them, Millennials are OK with socialism. A 2016 Gallup poll found 55% of those then aged 18-29 said they had a positive view of it (it’s worth noting 57% supported capitalism and 78% supported free enterprise). …Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign was instrumental in mainstreaming Democratic socialism.

What’s particularly galling is that young people are pessimistic about their economic future and they’ve decided to blame capitalism for problems that exist because of excessive government!

Millennials’ economic situation also plays a role. …A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found Millennials born in the ’80s have a net worth 34% below what was expected. And student debt since 2009 has doubled to $1.4 trillion… For many cash-strapped Millennials in debt, Democratic socialism isn’t radical, it’s a way to fix a system they believe failed them.

In other words, young people want to make Mitchell’s Law a never-ending reality.

Let’s look at another example. Here’s some of what Michelle Goldberg wrote in a fawning column in the New York Times.

…all over the nation, people, particularly women, are working with near supernatural energy to rebuild democracy from the ground up… For younger people who see Donald Trump’s election as the apotheosis of a rotten political and economic system, it often means trying to remake that party as a vehicle for democratic socialism. …Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old democratic socialist, shook the Democratic Party by toppling Joseph Crowley, a 19-year incumbent, chairman of the Queens County Democratic Party and potential heir to House minority leader Nancy Pelosi. …the real red wave may be democratic socialism’s growing political influence, especially among young people. …The D.S.A., to which Ocasio-Cortez belongs, is the largest socialist organization in America. Its growth has exploded since the 2016 election… Many of the D.S.A.’s goals, reflected in Ocasio-Cortez’s platform, are indistinguishable from those of progressive democrats. But if the D.S.A. is happy to work alongside liberals, its members are generally serious about the “socialist” part of democratic socialist. Its constitution envisions “a humane social order based on popular control of resources and production, economic planning, equitable distribution, feminism, racial equality and non-oppressive relationships.”

In other words, these cranks are real socialists. They actually want government to own and manage the means of production (“popular control of resources and production” and “economic planning”).

This is a problem for the non-crazy left.

Talk of popular control of the means of production is anathema to many older Democrats, even very liberal ones. …After Ocasio-Cortez’s win, Pelosi denied Republican claims that socialism is ascendant in the Democratic Party. It’s hard to blame her for being defensive, since for generations “socialist” was considered a slur, and it’s one that’s hurled at Democrats indiscriminately.

But young people seem prone to fantasy.

…one recent survey shows that 61 percent of Democrats between 18 and 34 view socialism positively. The combination of the Great Recession, the rising cost of education, the unreliability of health insurance and the growing precariousness of the workplace has left young people with gnawing material insecurity. They have no memory of the widespread failure of Communism, but the failures of capitalism are all around them.

Needless to say, Ms. Goldberg doesn’t list the “failures of capitalism,” but it’s a very safe bet that she’s blaming free markets for problems caused by government (a common theme in US economic history).

No wonder young people are so deeply confused. This is probably what they’re taught in government schools.

But there is a silver lining. Courtesy of Libertarian Reddit, we can enjoy some humor poking fun at Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s overly earnest form of socialism.

Amusing, but very unfair to religion. After all, we can’t go back in time to confirm details from the bible.

But we can look today at countries like Cuba, Greece, Venezuela, and North Korea to confirm the utter insanity of supporting any type of socialism.

Let’s close with a video from 2013. It’s about Obamanomics and young people, but it’s really about why big government makes it hard for young people to get ahead.

I especially like the explanation of how young people are big losers because of the entitlement state.

Makes me wonder if Ms. Ocasio-Cortez will take the lead on, say, Social Security reform when she gets to Congress?

Needless to say, I won’t be holding my breath.

Maybe we really should increase the voting

Opinion

Last month, we summarized libertarianism in five images.

In the interest of fairness, now let’s give equal time to the other side. After all, statists deserve an opportunity to present their case.

And we’ll start with this image, which makes the same point about coercion found in the “two-sentences” column I shared two months ago.

Unfortunately for our leftist friends, coercion doesn’t lead to effectiveness.

So this next image aptly captures the inherent problem of statist solutions.

So now you understand why Santa Claus sometimes has a problem.

And what happens when you mix the coercive nature of government with the fantasy world of government-provided goodies? Well, President Eisenhower already gave us the answer, but here’s the visual version.

But let’s not forget somebody has to pay for this collectivist utopia.

And that brings us to the joy of taxation.

“And then men with guns take money from your parents and give it to me.” from r/libertarianmeme

Last but not least, we’ll close with an image that illustrates how statism works in practice, which is why the message in this poster is so painfully true.

Having now presented five images for libertarianism and five images for statism, I suppose I could put together a poll to see which philosophy has more support.

But since libertarians are against untrammeled majoritarianism, that somehow doesn’t seem right. So instead I’ll simply recycle this bit of humor on the difference between the public sector and the private sector. Actually, there’s a scene from Ghostbusters that tells us everything we need to know.

Five images that illustrate how statism sounds

Economy

American Manufacturing Sector Graphic Concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

American Manufacturing Sector Graphic Concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The number of American workers employed in the manufacturing sector rose in June to 12,713,000, a 9 1/2-year high. That’s the largest number since December 2008, when manufacturing employment totaled 12,850,000 American workers.

“The monthly gain in manufacturing more than doubled the forecast,” Timothy Anderson, analyst at TJM Investments said. “The total number of people employed in manufacturing is the highest its been in 9 1/2 years.”

Manufacturing added a very solid 36,000 jobs, more than twice what economists had expected. But the month of June hasn’t been an anomaly and it warrants mentioning that Trump Administration policies cannot be separated from this resurgence.

Citing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the president’s signature piece of legislation and the first overhaul to the U.S. tax code in 31 years — a record 95.1% of manufacturers this quarter registered a positive outlook for their company. That’s the highest level ever in the 20-year history of the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey.

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) also said expectations for growth in investments, hiring and wages are reaching historic highs since the survey began in the fourth quarter (4Q) of 1997.

The first NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey after President Donald Trump took office showed a “dramatic shift in sentiment.” The NAM survey found more than 93% of manufacturers feeling positive about their economic outlook, which at the time was the highest level ever measured.

From the panel responses, it’s clear that sentiment was fueled by an administration focused on rebuilding the American manufacturing base.

In June 1998, there were 17,608,000 American workers employed in the manufacturing industry, something Mr. Trump made the centerpiece of his campaign and MAGAnomics. The previous administration took the position that most of these jobs were destined never to come back, and Barack Obama mocked the then-Republican candidate for needing a “magic wand” to rebuild the manufacturing base.

Now, numerous regional surveys of manufacturing activity have also broken records, and though manufacturers remain concerned over President Trump imposing tariffs on trade cheaters to force reciprocity, there’s also evidence that the economic agenda is working.

The U.S. trade deficit again narrowed sharply in May, shrinking $3.0 billion from $46.1 to $43.1 billion, a big net-positive for 2Q gross domestic product (GDP). This is the most narrow reading for the trade gap in 19 months.

In April, the U.S. trade deficit also narrowed sharply to $46.2 billion in April, another big net-positive for 2Q GDP.

“I agree with him [Trump] completely,” Mark Mobius, the famed investor and founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP, recently said in an interview. “Winning means getting some concessions and a reduction in the trade deficit.”

Other goods-producing industries have either improved dramatically or completely reversed their negative trends.

Construction employment continued the upward trend in June (+13,000) and has increased by 282,000 over the year. There are now 7,222,000 American workers employed in construction, the most since April 2008 when there were 7,327,000 workers in the industry.

The mining sector has shown the most dramatic turnout, evolving from an industry that was almost extinct to one that appears to be thriving. Employment in mining continued on an upward trend in June (+5,000). The industry has added 95,000 jobs since its low point in October 2016.

The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June and the civilian labor force grew by 601,000, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.2% to 4.0%. Further, the unemployment rate for Hispanic Americans fell to the lowest ever recorded, 4.6%.

The labor force participation rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 62.9.

“Six-hundred thousand people re-entering the workforce is very positive,” Mr. Anderson added. “It shows that people who had previously ‘stopped looking’ have been paying attention to the stories of how tight the job market is and that there are more job openings than people unemployed.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the number of job openings in the U.S. reached a new record high of 6.7 million on the last business day of April. When the Labor Department (DOL) began tracking job openings in December 2000, the number of unemployed persons per job opening was a seasonally-adjusted 2.6%.

It’s now just 0.9%, an all-time low.

“The June jobs report shows these people have confidence in finding a job,” Mr. Anderson noted, adding the findings were “very consistent with recent surveys showing sharply increasing optimism among those in the lower income bracket.”

The number of American workers employed in

Economy

The U.S. flag is displayed at Tesoro's Los Angeles oil refinery in Los Angeles, California. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. flag is displayed at Tesoro’s Los Angeles oil refinery in Los Angeles, California. (Photo: Reuters)

The Baker Hughes North America Rig Count jumped 15 rigs for the week ending July 6, fueled by gains in both the United States and Canada. The U.S. rig count rose overall by 5, and the Canadian rig count rose by 10.

The U.S. rig count total is 1052, a gain of 100 from the previous year. At 182, the Canadian rig count is up 7 from last year.

Rigs classified as drilling for oil in Canada increased by 9 to 126 and those classified as gas rose 1 to 56. In the U.S., rigs classified as drilling for oil rose by 5 to 863, while those classified as gas were flat at 187.

The Gulf of Mexico, which is separate from the North America Rig Count, held steady at 18.

The Baker Hughes North America Rig Count

Economy

People wait in line to attend TechFair LA in Los Angeles, Calif. (Photo: Reuters)

People wait in line to attend TechFair LA in Los Angeles, Calif. (Photo: Reuters)

The unemployment rate for Hispanics fell to 4.6% in June, lower than the previous record (4.8%) set in October 2006. While it has been matched in recent months, this is the lowest ever recorded by the U.S. Labor Department (DOL).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the DOL released the Employment Situation for June earlier Friday morning, which showed the U.S. economy created a stronger-than-expected 213,000 jobs during the month and the civilian labor force grew by a whopping 601,000 workers.

With the rise in the labor force participation rate and expansion of the labor force, the overall unemployment rate ticked higher slightly to 4.0%. Nonfarm payrolls have increased 3,216,000 since President Donald J. Trump took office.

The unemployment rate for Hispanics fell to

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