Widget Image
Follow PPD Social Media
Friday, January 31, 2025
HomeStandard Blog Whole Post (Page 201)

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

The Labor Department said jobless claims for the week ending June 16 fell another 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

Extended Benefits were payable in the Virgin Islands during the week ending June 2.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending June 9. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 9 was 1,723,000, a gain of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

The previous week’s level was revised up 4,000 from 1,697,000 to 1,701,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,722,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.

This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 1,715,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 1,726,250 to 1,727,250.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 2 were in the Virgin Islands (3.5), Alaska (2.5), New Jersey (2.0), Connecticut (1.9), California (1.8), Puerto Rico (1.8), Pennsylvania (1.6), Illinois (1.5), Nevada (1.4), and Rhode Island (1.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 9 were in Pennsylvania (+6,023), California (+4,591), Florida (+2,542), Texas (+2,277), and New Jersey (+1,598), while the largest decreases were in Missouri (-719), Arkansas (-520), Mississippi (-512), New Mexico (-325), and Alabama (-202).

The Labor Department said jobless claims for

Employment, Wage Growth Expectations Also Reaching Record Highs

President Donald J. Trump speaks during a celebratory bill passage event following the final passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by Congress. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump speaks during a celebratory bill passage event following the final passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by Congress. (Photo: AP)

A record 95.1% of manufacturers registered a positive outlook for their company, the highest level ever in the 20-year history of the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey. Additionally, expected growth for investments, hiring and wages is reaching historic highs since the survey began in the fourth quarter (4Q) of 1997.

“This record optimism is no accident. It is fueled by the game-changing tax reform passed six months ago,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Last year, manufacturers promised that we would deliver for our people and our communities if tax reform became law. Congress and the president delivered, and now manufacturers are keeping our promise: hiring new workers, raising wages, improving benefits, buying equipment and expanding right here in the United States.”

“And the best part is, with manufacturers’ record-setting confidence and plans to keep hiring and growing, more good news is yet to come.”

The details of the data back up the comments citing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as the predominant factor motivating the gains.

Since the end of 2016, the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey averaged 92.6% positive over the past six quarters. This is the seventh straight quarter where the outlook exceeded the survey’s historical average.

Further, the “business environment” is no longer the concern among manufacturers that it once was. Only 19.1% cite the tax and regulatory climate as being a top concern. That’s a big change from as recently as two years ago, when respondents cited an unfavorable business climate as their primary business challenge.

Three-quarters of manufacturers noted it as their top problem in the 2Q of 2016. This quarter’s NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey found that manufacturers cited the skills gap, or the inability to attract and retain a quality workforce as their top concern. The price of raw materials rose to their second top concern.

About the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey

Conducted by NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray, the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey has surveyed the association’s membership of 14,000 large and small manufacturers on a quarterly basis for the past 20 years to gain insight into their economic outlook, hiring and investment decisions and business concerns.

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

Citing President Trump's signature tax reform overhaul,

Quite Frankly on Monday told the tale of the tape, reviewing past statements from Democratic leaders now criticizing Donald Trump on immigration. Chuck Schumer, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Dianne Feinstein and others have all made statements in support of the policies they now criticize President Trump for immigration policies they once supported.

“No sane country would give citizenship to illegals.” – former Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid

“You have to concentrate on saying the people who should be here are the ones who come legally. The day when America could be the welfare system for Mexico is gone.” – Dianne Feinstein

“The illegal immigrants who come and commit crimes… that’s not what our nation is all about.

Quite Frankly on Monday told the tale

A under contract sign on a home previously for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

A under contract sign on a home previously for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said existing-home sales fell for the second straight month in May. Total existing-home sales, — completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — fell 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in May.

That’s off a downwardly revised 5.45 million in April. With last month’s decline, sales are now 3.0% below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for three straight months.

“Closings were down in a majority of the country last month and declined on an annual basis in each major region,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said. “Incredibly low supply continues to be the primary impediment to more sales, but there’s no question the combination of higher prices and mortgage rates are pinching the budgets of prospective buyers, and ultimately keeping some from reaching the market.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $264,800, an all-time high and up 4.9% from May 2017 ($252,500). May’s price increase marks the 75th straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of May climbed 2.8% to 1.85 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 6.1% lower than a year ago (1.97 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 36 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace (4.2 months a year ago).

Properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days in May, unchanged from April and down from 27 days a year ago. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.

“Inventory coming onto the market during this year’s spring buying season – as evidenced again by last month’s weak reading – was not even close to being enough to satisfy demand,” added Yun. “That is why home prices keep outpacing incomes and listings are going under contract in less than a month – and much faster – in many parts of the country.”

Regional Existing-Home Sales

May existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 4.6% to an annual rate of 680,000, though are now 11.7% below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $275,900, down 1.8% from May 2017.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined by 2.3% to an annual rate of 1.26 million in May and are now 2.3% below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $209,900, a gain of 4.2% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South ticked down 0.4% to an annual rate of 2.32 million in May, and are unchanged from a year ago. The median price in the South was $233,100, rising 4.5% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 0.8% to an annual rate of 1.17 million in May, and are 4.1% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $395,800, up 7.2% from May 2017.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said

Graphic concept with a notebook and a capital gains tax sign on a table. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Designer491)

Graphic concept with a notebook and a capital gains tax sign on a table. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Designer491)

wrote last month about a new book from the Fraser Institute about demographics and entrepreneurship.

My contribution was a chapter about the impact of taxation, especially the capital gains tax.

At a panel in Washington, I had a chance to discuss my findings.

If you don’t want to watch an 11-minute video, my presentation can be boiled down to four main points.

1. Demographics is destiny – Other authors actually had the responsibility of explaining in the book about the importance of demographic change. But it never hurts to remind people that this is a profound and baked-in-the-cake ticking time bomb.

So I shared this chart with the audience and emphasized that a modest-sized welfare state may have been feasible in the past, but will be far more burdensome in the future for the simple reason that the ratio of taxpayers to tax-consumers is dramatically changing.

 

And it goes without saying that big-sized welfare states are doomed to collapse. Think Greece and extend it to ItalyFranceJapan, and other developed nations (including, I fear, the United States).

2. Entrepreneurship drives growth – Capital and labor are the two factors of production, but entrepreneurs are akin to the chefs who figure out news ways of mixing those ingredients.

For all intents and purposes, entrepreneurs produce the creative destruction that is a prerequisite for growth.

3. The tax code discourages entrepreneurship – The bulk of my presentation was dedicated to explaining that double taxation is both pervasive and harmful.

I shared my flowchart showing how the American tax code is biased against income that is saved and invest, which discourages entrepreneurial activity.

And then showed the capital gains tax burden in developed countries.

 

The U.S. is probably even worse than shown in the above chart since our capital gains tax is imposed on inflationary gains.

4. The United States need to be more competitive – Last but not least, I pointed out that America’s class-warfare tax policies are the fiscal equivalent of an “own goal” (soccer reference for World Cup fans).

And this chart from my chapter shows how the United States, as of mid-2016, had the highest combined tax rate on capital gains when including the effect of the capital gains tax.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Trump tax cuts did produce a lower corporate rate. So in the version below, I’ve added my back-of-the-envelope calculation of where the U.S. now ranks.

 

But the bottom line is still uncompetitive when looking at the tax burden on investment.

And never forget that this ultimately backfires against workers since it translates into lower pay.

Capital gains taxes hurt entrepreneurs, who are

From left to right: Demoted FBI lawyer Lisa Page, her extramarital lover and reassigned former counterintelligence head Peter Strzok, fired former FBI director James Comey, and fired former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe. (Photos: Reuters/FBI)

From left to right: Demoted FBI lawyer Lisa Page, her extramarital lover and reassigned former counterintelligence head Peter Strzok, fired former FBI director James Comey, and fired former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe. (Photos: Reuters/FBI)

Voters by majority say it’s likely senior officials at the Justice Department and FBI broke the law in their effort to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidency. A Rasmussen Reports national survey finds 51% of likely voters believe laws were broken, including 36% who believe it’s very likely.

That compares to 50% and 32%, respectively, when they first asked voters this question in February.

The new poll comes after the inspector general revealed FBI officials conducting the email investigation and Russia probe vowed to prevent Donald Trump from becoming President of the United States. Unfortunately for these officials, 44% of voters say they’ve followed the report “very closely,” while another 35% are watching “somewhat closely.”

Inspector General Michael Horowitz testified on Monday that “it’s clear” the agent at the center of the Clinton email and Russia probe cases had “a bias state of mind.” He was referring in large part to Peter Strzok, the head of FBI counterintelligence team who conducted the investigations into Hillary Clinton and then pivoted his focus to the Russia probe.

The highly-anticipated IG report uncovered text messages between Mr. Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, with whom he was having an affair. In one of the more damning messages, Mr. Strzok vowed to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the 45th President of the United States.

Lisa Page: “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”

Peter Strzok: “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”

These messages were excluded from a disclosure from the same text string, which was previous handed over to members of Congress.

“I think it’s clear from the text messages we’ve talked about that he had as we say here, a bias state of mind,” Mr. Horowitz testified in response.

Ideologically, even 25% of self-identified liberals think it’s at least somewhat likely FBI and DOJ officials broke the law attempting to stop President Trump, while 75% of conservatives and 41% of moderates, agree. By party, 73% of Republicans agree, as do more than a third (34%) of Democrats and 46% of unaffiliated voters.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 17-18, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.

Voters say it's likely senior officials at

Watch Live: Justice Department (DOJ) Inspector General Michael Horowitz testifies before the House Judiciary and Oversight Committees. The joint hearing conducted by Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., is entitled: “Oversight of the FBI and DOJ Actions in Advance of the 2016 Election.”

While Mr. Horowitz stopped short in his criticisms, the review of the handling of the Clinton email case released last week was very damning to the FBI and DOJ.

For instance, it revealed an FBI official conducting the email investigation and Russia probe vowed to prevent Donald Trump from becoming President of the United States.

Worse still, the messages, which were between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, two anti-Trump FBI officials who were also having an affair, had previously been excluded from disclosures to members of Congress.

Read IG Opening Statement: Oversight of the FBI and DOJ Actions in Advance of the 2016 Election

Read IG Report: A Review of Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election

Watch Live: Justice Department (DOJ) Inspector General

New residential homes are shown under construction in Carlsbad, California September 19, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

New residential homes are shown under construction in Carlsbad, California September 19, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. Census Bureau report on new residential construction shows housing starts in May rose 5% from April and 20.3% from May 2017 rate of 1,122,000. The annualized rate of 1,350,000 million hits the top end of the consensus range is a big boost to residential investment in second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

Building Permits

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits are 4.6% below the revised April rate of 1,364,000, but 18.0% higher than the May 2017 rate of 1,205,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 844,000, or 2.2% below the revised April figure of 863,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 421,000 in May.

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,350,000, or 5.0 % higher than the revised April estimate of 1,286,000 and is 20.3% higher than the May 2017 rate of 1,122,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 936,000, or 3.9% above the revised April figure of 901,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.

Housing Completions

Privately-owned housing completions in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,291,000, or 1.9% above the revised April estimate of 1,267,000 and 10.4% above the May 2017 rate of 1,169,000. Single-family housing completions in May were at a rate of 890,000, or 11.0% higher than the revised April rate of 802,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 389,000.

The U.S. Census Bureau report on new

Read full IG report: "A Review of Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election."

Read full IG report: “A Review of Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election.”

Justice Department (DOJ) Inspector General (OIG) Michael Horowitz testified “it’s clear” the agent at the center of the Clinton email and Russia probe cases had “a bias state of mind.” He’s facing tough questions before the Senate Judiciary Committee after the release of a bombshell report and an 18-month internal review.

When asked about Peter Strzok — the head of FBI counterintelligence team who conducted the investigations into Hillary Clinton and then pivoted his focus to the Russia probe — Mr. Horowitz made a more definitive admission.

“I think it’s clear from the text messages we’ve talked about that he had as we say here, a bias state of mind,” Mr. Horowitz said in response.

The highly-anticipated IG report uncovered text messages between Mr. Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, with whom he was having an affair. In one of the more damning messages, Mr. Strzok vowed to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the 45th President of the United States.

Lisa Page: “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”

Peter Strzok: “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”

These messages were excluded from a disclosure from the same text string, which was previous handed over to members of Congress.

Previously obtained text messages also show the two lovers discussed needing to talk to “Andy” about an “insurance policy” in the event President Trump defeated Mrs. Clinton, a reference to then-FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

“I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office — that there’s no way he gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40,” Mr. Strzok wrote to Ms. Page.

Mr. Horowitz also confirmed to the Senate Judiciary Committee that the IG believed “Andy” was a reference to Andrew McCabe, who has since been fired. The inspector general referred Mr. McCabe to the U.S. Attorney for criminal charges after concluding he lacked candor (lied) under oath.

Ms. Page, along with FBI lawyer Jim Baker, both of whom worked closely with fired former FBI director James Comey, resigned from the agency in May. Mr. Strzok has been relieved of his post as head of the counterintelligence department, currently works in Human Resources (HR) and is reportedly willing to testify before Congress.

Worth noting, Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page both worked on the Democrat-dominated team assembled by Special Counsel Robert Mueller III. They were fired last summer before members of Congress conducting oversight and the media learned of the content of the messages.

Mr. McCabe has requested immunity from Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Ia., in exchange for testimony and emails damaging to his former boss, Mr. Comey.

Inspector General Michael Horowitz testified "it's clear"

President Donald Trump signs the Presidential Space Directive - 1, directing NASA to return to the moon, alongside members of the Senate, Congress, NASA, and commercial space companies in the Roosevelt room of the White House in Washington, Monday, Dec. 11, 2017. Photo Credit: (NASA/Aubrey Gemignani)

President Donald Trump signs the Presidential Space Directive – 1, directing NASA to return to the moon, alongside members of the Senate, Congress, NASA, and commercial space companies in the Roosevelt room of the White House in Washington, Monday, Dec. 11, 2017. Photo Credit: (NASA/Aubrey Gemignani)

President Donald Trump has directed Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph Dunford to create a sixth branch of the military service — Space Force. The announcement came during the third meeting of the National Space Council.

“This is a giant step toward inspiring future generations and toward reclaiming America’s proud destiny in space,” President Trump said in a statement, adding he has already directed the U.S. Pentagon “to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces.”

Space Policy Directive – 3 signed by the president provides guidelines and direction to ensure the U.S. is a leader in providing a safe and secure environment as commercial and civil space traffic increases. The new directive also aims to reduce the growing threat of orbital debris to the common interest of all nations.

“That’s a big statement,” he added. “We are going the have the Air Force and the Space Force; separate but equal.”

Though it hasn’t received much media attention, President Trump has already established himself as a consequential leader in space exploration.

In his first 100 days, he signed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017. Then-acting NASA Administrator Robert Lightfoot said it was vital for “our nation’s space, aeronautics, science, and technology development programs to thrive.”

In June 2017, the president revived the National Space Council for the first time in 24 years, and empowered them to help implement his space policy. That policy is to make human exploration of the solar system a national priority.

In December 2017, President Trump signed Space Policy Directive 1, establishing a public-private partnership for human missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) said the directive will lay the foundation that will eventually enable human exploration of Mars.

“NASA looks forward to supporting the president’s directive strategically aligning our work to return humans to the Moon, travel to Mars and opening the deeper solar system beyond,” Mr. Lightfoot said of the directive. “This work represents a national effort on many fronts, with America leading the way.”

“We will engage the best and brightest across government and private industry and our partners across the world to reach new milestones in human achievement.”

The directive was the result of a unanimous recommendation made by the new council, which is chaired by Vice President Mike Pence, after its first meeting on October 5.

In May 2018, the president signed Space Policy Directive – 2, which reforms U.S. commercial space regulatory framework with a goal to ensure the nation maintains its role as a leader in space commerce.

“Now we are ready to begin the next great chapter of American space exploration,” President Trump said. “We are Americans, and the future belongs totally to us.”

President Donald Trump has directed Joint Chiefs of

People's Pundit Daily
You have %%pigeonMeterAvailable%% free %%pigeonCopyPage%% remaining this month. Get unlimited access and support reader-funded, independent data journalism.

Start a 14-day free trial now. Pay later!

Start Trial