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Economy

Nathan Rogers works on the jet assembly line at Cessna, at their manufacturing plant in Wichita, Kansas March 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Nathan Rogers works on the jet assembly line at Cessna, at their manufacturing plant in Wichita, Kansas March 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index gauging factory activity in the Tenth District hit the highest level ever in May for the second consecutive month. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Tenth District Manufacturing Survey “continued to expand at a rapid pace, and optimism remained high for future activity.”

“Our composite index rose to another record high in May, with continued optimism for future growth,” Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said. “Prices indexes were stable but remained at high levels.”

The month-over-month composite index — an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes — was 29 in May, the highest ever in the survey’s history. That easily beat the 22 median forecast and represented a gain from readings of 26 in April and 17 in March.

Factory activity increased at both durable and nondurable goods plants, particularly at nondurable plants producing chemicals and food.

The production index jumped from 33 to 41, and the shipments, new orders, and new orders for exports indexes also moved higher. The raw materials inventory index ticked up 2 points from 17 to 19, and the finished goods inventory index also gained. Year-over-year factory indexes increased “considerably” over the previous month, Mr. Wilkerson said.

The composite index rose from 36 to 45.

The production, shipments, order backlog, and new orders indexes all increased higher. The capital expenditures index jumped from 26 to 33, and the employment index reached its highest level in survey history. The raw materials inventory index inched lower from 32 to 28, while the finished goods inventory index increased.

Future factory activity expectations moderated slightly but remained solid overall. The future composite index slipped from 31 to 26, and the future production, shipments, new orders and order backlog indexes also fell somewhat.

The future capital expenditures index eased from 37 to 33, while the future employment index was unchanged. The future raw materials inventory index decreased from 19 to 7, and the future finished goods inventory index also edged lower.

Most price indexes were little changed in May but remained at high levels.

The month-over-month finished goods price index eased from 29 to 22, while the raw materials price index was basically unchanged. The year-over-year finished goods price index slipped from 60 to 56, while the year-over-year raw materials price index inched higher. The future finished goods price index fell from 53 to 44, and the future raw materials price index moderated slightly.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index gauging

Economy

A real estate sign advertises a home for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

A real estate sign advertises a home for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

After two months of consecutive gains, existing-home sales retreated in April both on a monthly and annualized basis, fueled by “staggeringly low” inventory levels.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said total existing-home sales — which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March.

With last month’s decline, sales are now 1.4% below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for two straight months.

“The root cause of the underperforming sales activity in much of the country so far this year continues to be the utter lack of available listings on the market to meet the strong demand for buying a home,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said. “Realtors say the healthy economy and job market are keeping buyers in the market for now even as they face rising mortgage rates. However, inventory shortages are even worse than in recent years, and home prices keep climbing above what many home shoppers are able to afford.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in April came in at $257,900, a gain of 5.3% from April 2017 ($245,000). March’s price increase marks the 74th straight month of year-over-year gains.

While total housing inventory at the end of April gained 9.8% to 1.80 million existing homes available for sale, that’s still 6.3% lower than a year ago (1.92 million). Inventory has fallen year-over-year for 35 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace (4.2 months a year ago).

Properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days in April, which is down from 30 days in February and 29 days a year ago. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month.

“What is available for sale is going under contract at a rapid pace,” Mr. Yun added. “Since NAR began tracking this data in May 2011, the median days a listing was on the market was at an all-time low in April, and the share of homes sold in less than a month was at an all-time high.”

First-Time Buyers

Thirty-three percent (33%) of sales in April were first-time buyers, the highest since last July. That is up from 30% last month but down from 34% a year ago.

“Especially with mortgage rates going up in recent weeks, prospective buyers should visit with more than one lender to ensure they are getting the lowest rate possible,” NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall said. “Receiving a rate quote from multiple lenders could lead to considerable savings over the life of the loan.”

Regional Data

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 4.4% to an annual rate of 650,000 and are 11.0% below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $275,200, or 2.8% higher than April 2017.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 1.29 million in April and are 3.0% below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $202,100, up 4.6% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South fell 2.9% to an annual rate of 2.33 million in April. However, they are still 2.2% higher than they were a year ago. The median price in the South was $227,600, up 3.9% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 3.3% to an annual rate of 1.19 million in April, and are 0.8% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $382,100, up 6.2% from April 2017.

After two months of consecutive gains, existing-home

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump walks from Marine One as he returns from a day trip to Atlanta on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., April 28, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. President Donald Trump walks from Marine One as he returns from a day trip to Atlanta on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., April 28, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald Trump has pulled out of the nuclear summit with North Korea scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, sending a bold letter (read below) to Kim Jong Un that left the door open to future talks. The decision comes after North Korea destroyed a nuclear site but also as Kim’s behavior was influenced by their neighbor to the North.

“We greatly appreciate your time, patience, and effort with respect to our recent negotiations and discussions relative to a summit long sought by both parties, which was scheduled to take place on June 12 in Singapore,” the letter to Kim states. “We were informed that the meeting was requested by North Korea, but that to us is totally irrelevant. I was very much looking forward to being there with you.”

Ultimately, President Trump felt he had little choice after a key member of the Kim regime made less-than flattering comments about Vice President Mike Pence, publicly calling him “a political dummy” and “ignorant.” But he left the door open in a textbook display of the Art of the Deal.

“Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting,” he wrote. “Therefore, please let this letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take place.”

“You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.”

At the White House on Tuesday, President Trump said there was a “very substantial chance” the June 12 meeting with Kim “won’t work out.” When asked privately, he gave the meeting 50/50 odds of taking place.

“We’re working on something and there’s a chance that it may work out,” President Trump said during a meeting with South Korean leader Moon Jae-in. “There’s a chance, there’s “a very substantial chance it won’t work out.”

Speaking directly to Kim, and through diplomatic channels, President Trump has guaranteed his personal and national safety, as well as regime credibility. In the letter, he thanked him for the release of hostages this month, which served as a gesture of good faith.

“I want to thank you for the release of the hostages who are now home with their families,” President Trump wrote. “That was a beautiful gesture and was very much appreciated.”

But after a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the North Korean dictator’s behavior changed and the president believes he needs a little reminder as to why he was forced to the table in the first place.

“If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please to not hesitate to call me or write,” President Trump wrote to Kim. “The world, and North Korea in particular, has lost a great opportunity for lasting peace and great prosperity and wealth. The missed opportunity is a truly sad moment in history.”

Letter from President Donald J. Trump to North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.

President Trump has pulled out of the

Economy

A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) finds U.S. house prices rose 1.7% in the first quarter (1Q) of 2018. House prices rose 6.9% from the 1Q of 2017 to the 1Q of 2018, less than the 7.4% median forecast.

FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.1% from February, less than the 0.6% expected gain and the smallest gain in over 3 years.

Still, offsetting weakness in March is unusual strength in February, which is revised 0.2% higher to an 0.8% monthly gain. The annual was revised 0.2% higher to 7.4%.

“Home prices continue to rise across the U.S. but there are signs of tapering,” Dr. William Doerner, FHFA Senior Economist said. “Since housing markets began to rebound in 2012, house price appreciation has been positive because demand has outpaced supply.”

“In the last month, however, some regions reflect a slowing or even flattening of house price growth.”

Home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the 1Q of 2017 and the 1Q of 2018. The top five areas in annual appreciation were: 1) Nevada 13.7%; 2) Washington 13.1%; 3) Idaho 11.1%; 4) Colorado 10.6%; and 5) Utah 9.9%.

Home prices rose in each of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters. Annual price increases were greatest in Las Vegas-HendersonParadise, NV, where prices increased by 17.1%. Prices were weakest in Tulsa, OK, where they rose 0.8%.

Of the nine census divisions, the Pacific division experienced the strongest 4Q appreciation, posting a 9.5% gain between the first quarters of 2017 and 2018 and a 2.6% increase in the 1Q of 2018. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the East South Central division, where prices rose 5.3% between the 1Q of 2017 and 1Q 2018.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

[caption id="attachment_54451" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] A house-for-sale sign

Politics

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before leaving the White House in Washington, Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, for a trip to Quantico, Va., to attend the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before leaving the White House in Washington, Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, for a trip to Quantico, Va., to attend the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump responded to FBI agents asking Congress to issue a subpoena allowing them to speak against James Comey and Andrew McCabe.

“Not surprisingly, the GREAT Men & Women of the FBI are starting to speak out against Comey, McCabe and all of the political corruption and poor leadership found within the top ranks of the FBI,” he tweeted Thursday morning. “Comey was a terrible and corrupt leader who inflicted great pain on the FBI!”

The Daily Caller reviewed detailed Q&A transcripts between special agents and Joe DiGenova, a former U.S. attorney and Trump Administration official. The agents are asking to be subpoenaed to obtain official government whistleblower status because they fear political and professional backlash.

“Every special agent I have spoken to in the Washington Field Office wants to see McCabe prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. They feel the same way about Comey,“ a special agent said. “The administrations are so politicized that any time a Special Agent comes forward as a whistleblower, they can expect to be thrown under the bus by leadership. Go against the Muslim Brotherhood, you’re crushed. Go against the Clintons, you’re crushed.”

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) first reported in May of last year, and subsequently reported multiple times, the rank-and-file agents at the bureau are disgusted with the handling of the Clinton email case, the Russia probe and overall politicization under the Obama Administration.

“Activity that Congress is investigating is being stonewalled by leadership and rank-and-file FBI employees in the periphery are just doing their jobs,” a special agent added. “All Congress needs to do is subpoena involved personnel and they will tell you what they know. These are honest people. Leadership cannot stop anyone from responding to a subpoena. Those subpoenaed also get legal counsel provided by the government to represent them.”

Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who has all of D.C. on edge awaiting his internal report on the wrongdoing and corruption, sent a criminal referral for Andrew McCabe to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C. He was fired after a review by Mr. Horowitz determined he lied multiple times, including under Oath.

Mr. McCabe was first removed from his post over misconduct and apparent corruption, but had been trying to ride out the scandals currently at the center of the FBI and DOJ. Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired him just days before his retirement was set to take effect.

President Trump called it a “great day” for the FBI and a “great day for Democracy.”

President Donald Trump responded to FBI agents

Economy

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) said first-time jobless claims rose 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000, more than the 220,000 median forecast. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000.

The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal and extended benefits were payable in the Virgin Islands during the week ending May 5.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending May 12, unchanged from the previous week. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 12 was 1,741,000, an increase of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

The previous week’s level was revised up 5,000 from 1,707,000 to 1,712,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,751,750, a decrease of 23,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 1,735,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 1,773,750 to 1,775,000.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 5 were in the Virgin Islands (4.3), Alaska (2.9), New Jersey (2.1), California (1.9), Connecticut (1.9), Puerto Rico (1.9), Illinois (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.6), and Rhode Island (1.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 12 were in Missouri (+3,852), Kentucky (+2,980), Alabama (+1,082), Michigan (+660), and Mississippi (+326), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-1,378), Ohio (-1,247), New York (-1,004), Arizona (-512), and Oregon (-434).

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) said first-time

Sports

Colin Kaepernick, left, takes a knee while, Alejandro Villanueva, right, stands for the national anthem before NFL game.

Colin Kaepernick, left, takes a knee while, Alejandro Villanueva, right, stands for the national anthem before NFL game.

The National Football League (NFL) will allow players and personnel to stay in the locker room until after the national anthem, but those on-field “shall stand” or be fined.

“It was unfortunate that on-field protests created a false perception among many that thousands of NFL players were unpatriotic. This is not and was never the case,” NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement.

“This season, all league and team personnel shall stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem. Personnel who choose not to stand for the Anthem may stay in the locker room until after the Anthem has been performed.”

The NFL is now headed into its third season plagued by anthem protests, which started during the preseason of 2016. Then-49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick first sat, then knelt, during the playing of the national anthem.

Since Kaepernick, hundreds of players and personnel across the NFL have either sat, knelt, or raised a “black power” fist during the national anthem. The protests reached their zenith during Week 3 of the 2017 season, right after President Donald Trump ripped protesters at a political rally in Alabama.

He called the players “SOB’s,” and said he wished team owners would fire them. Hundreds of players, coaches, and executives protested and criticized the president’s remarks. But the vast majority of the American people were on President Trump’s side and it badly hurt their brand and viewership.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted in February found that 37% of American adults watched fewer NFL games during the season because of the on-field player protests. The PPD/Big Data Poll also mirrored those results.

Source: People's Pundit Daily Big Data Poll (PPD Poll).

Source: People’s Pundit Daily Big Data Poll (PPD Poll).

Sporting News reported ratings for Week 6 were down nearly 9% over the 2016 season with only 15,026,000 viewers (-8.2%). Viewership fell almost 19% from the 2015 season, down from the 18,485,000 viewers from 2 years ago (-18.7%).

Albert Breer at Sports Illustrated found the NFL was not only losing their national audience but also their local markets.

“Twenty-five of 31 teams (excluding the Chargers, because of the move) are drawing lower local numbers than they did in 2016,” he wrote. “Nineteen have dropped 5 percent or more, including brand name teams like the Cowboys (7 percent drop), Patriots (8 percent) and Steelers (6 percent), and both New York clubs (the Giants are down 7 percent, the Jets are down 37 percent). Conversely, only three teams (Chiefs, Bucs, Lions) have improved by more than 5 percent.”

Colin Kaepernick and Eric Reid— who are credited with being the first two to start the protests — are now free agents. They filed separate lawsuits against the NFL claiming owners colluded with each other to keep them off of the field and a team because of backlash to the protests.

POLICY STATEMENT

The 32 member clubs of the National Football League have reaffirmed their strong commitment to work alongside our players to strengthen our communities and advance social justice.  The unique platform that we have created is unprecedented in its scope, and will provide extraordinary resources in support of programs to promote positive social change in our communities.

The membership also strongly believes that:

  1. All team and league personnel on the field shall stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem.
  2. The Game Operations Manual will be revised to remove the requirement that all players be on the field for the Anthem.
  3. Personnel who choose not to stand for the Anthem may stay in the locker room or in a similar location off the field until after the Anthem has been performed.
  4. A club will be fined by the League if its personnel are on the field and do not stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem.
  5. Each club may develop its own work rules, consistent with the above principles, regarding its personnel who do not stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem.
  6. The Commissioner will impose appropriate discipline on league personnel who do not stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem.​

[caption id="attachment_69206" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Colin Kaepernick, left,

Economy

A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The New Residential Sales report, released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), shows new home sales for single-family houses in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000.

The volatile estimate was 1.5% (±11.8%)* below the revised March rate of 672,000, but still a solid 11.6% (±23.7%)* above the April 2017 estimate of 593,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2018 was $312,400. The average sales price was $407,300.

The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 300,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate.

Under the Trump Administration, new home sales hit the highest level in 25 years during the month of November 2017. Gains over that three-month period were the strongest in roughly 14 years, since 2003.

The new year started out strong, as well. Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes dropped just 2 points to 72 in January after soaring to the highest level since July 1999 in December.

The U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Sales

Polls

Graphic for the Generic Ballot, otherwise known as the Generic Congressional Ballot or Generic House Vote. (Photo: Christos Georghiou/Adobe Stock/PPD)

Graphic for the Generic Ballot, otherwise known as the Generic Congressional Ballot or Generic House Vote. (Photo: Adobe Stock/PPD)

The double-digit lead Democratic candidates have enjoyed on the generic ballot has completely evaporated in the month of May. Five polls regularly tracking the generic vote for the U.S. House of Representatives all showed positive movement for the Republican Party this month.

The Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot is now down to just a 1-point lead for Democrats, 43% to 42%. Rasmussen Reports tracks weekly and showed Democrats up by 6 points just last week.

The Reuters/Ipsos Poll, which skewed in favor of Democrats in 2010, 2014 and 2016, now showed just a 1-point lead for Democrats, as well. While their published result was 38% to 37%, with the 5/11 – 5/15 period of data-collection shifting that result, the newest results ending May 20 show a large 6-point lead for Republicans.

The Economist/YouGov Poll continues to show a larger lead for Democrats, 47% to 42%. However, even that’s down from 9 points the previous week and the survey assumes a 7-point edge in turnout for the Democratic Party, an edge they’ve not posted in a midterm cycle in decades.

In 2006, when Democrats cleaned up in a wave, they still only had a 2-point advantage in turnout, or 38D to 36R. They just won independents 57% to 39%. Yet, in this particular poll,  Republicans led Democrats among independents, 33% to 24%.

The PPD-Big Data Poll, or PPD Poll, appeared to be ahead of this movement with a survey released last week. It found Democrats with a slim 3-point lead on the PPD Generic Ballot. That move toward Republican candidates came after Democrats enjoyed an edge upwards of 13 points for most of the year.

“Democrats have been able to pull off some special election upsets in Republican and Republican-leaning congressional districts. But they didn’t do that by changing many minds. Republicans weren’t showing up to vote,” Rich Baris, the Director of the Big Data Poll (PPD Poll) and PPD Election Projection Model said with the release.

“We saw that in our polling at the time and we’re seeing that change now.”

The double-digit lead Democratic candidates have enjoyed

Politics

Former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper, left, former CIA headJohn Brennan, center, and former FBI director James Comey, right.

Former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper, left, former CIA headJohn Brennan, center, and former FBI director James Comey, right.

President Donald Trump said “things have turned around” on the deep state actors who constructed the “phony collusion with Russia” narrative. He tweeted on Wednesday that they have been caught in “a major SPY scandal the likes of which this country may never have seen before.”

“Look how things have turned around on the Criminal Deep State. They go after Phony Collusion with Russia, a made up Scam, and end up getting caught in a major SPY scandal the likes of which this country may never have seen before! What goes around, comes around!”

The president’s remarks come in response to revelations that the Obama Administration improperly used the federal government to spy on his campaign, including embedding multiple spies to entrap various members of the team.

“SPYGATE could be one of the biggest political scandals in history!”

Congressional Republicans introduced a resolution Tuesday calling for the appointment of a second special counsel to investigate misconduct at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department (DOJ).

The Department of Justice (DOJ) said over the weekend that a watchdog will investigate “potential criminal conduct” in the Russia probe motivated by “impropriety or political motivation.” D.C. is already on edge as they await the vast report by Inspector General Michael Horowitz, which reviewed wrongdoing on behalf of former Obama Administration officials in the investigation into Hillary Clinton.

President Donald Trump said "things have turned

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