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Economy

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics have fallen to the lowest levels ever recorded in the history of the report on the Employment Situation.

The Labor Department (DOL) via the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April jobs report on Friday, which shows unemployment for African Americans (6.6%) and Hispanics (4.4% ) have fallen to brand new all-time lows. For Hispanics, the unemployment rate mirrors the all-time low previously hit in July 2017.

Unemployment April 2018. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Labor Department (DOL).]

Unemployment April 2018. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Labor Department (DOL).]

The overall unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, the lowest it’s been since December 2000. The U-6 alternative unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the lowest since July 2001. That indicates the U.S. economy has reverted back to a full-time economy, rather the crappy part-time

President Donald Trump famously campaigned for African American votes by asking, “What the hell do you have to lose?”

Unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics

Economy

A "Now Hiring" sign hangs on the door to the Urban Outfitters store at Quincy Market in Boston, Massachusetts September 5, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A “Now Hiring” sign hangs on the door to the Urban Outfitters store at Quincy Market in Boston, Massachusetts September 5, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. economy created 164,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, the lowest level since December 2000. While the number of jobs missed the 190,000 median forecast, jobs gains occurred in higher-paying sectors.

Professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining led the way.

Worth noting, unemployment for African Americans (6.6%) and Hispanics (4.4% ) have fallen to brand new all-time lows. For Hispanics, the unemployment rate mirrors the all-time low previously hit in July 2017.

The number of unemployed persons, at 6.3 million, also edged down over the month.

Unemployment April 2018. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Labor Department (DOL).]

Unemployment April 2018. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Labor Department (DOL).]

The labor force participation rate (62.8%) and the employment-population ratio (60.3) were largely unchanged. The U-6 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the lowest level since July 2001. The alternative measure gauges total unemployment including marginally attached workers and those employment part-time for economic reasons.

That’s significant because it shows the U.S. economy has reverted back to a stronger full-time economy, rather than a part-time one. Under the Obama Administration, many of the jobs created were part-time and low-paying.

Employment in manufacturing increased by 24,000 in April. Most of the gain was in the durable goods component, with machinery adding 8,000 jobs and employment in fabricated metal products continuing to trend up (+4,000). Manufacturing employment has risen by 245,000 over the year, with about 75% of the growth in durable goods industries.

In April, employment in mining increased by 8,000, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+7,000). Since a recent low in October 2016, employment in mining has risen by 86,000.

The growth trends under the Trump Administration in manufacturing and mining mark a complete reversal from the net negative trend of job losses under the Obama Administration.

Wages also continued to trend up in April.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.84. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 67 cents, or 2.6%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $22.51 in April.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said earlier in the week that the U.S. unemployment rate “will soon be in the threes” if job creation continues “at this pace.” His remarks came with the release of the latest stronger-than-anticipated ADP National Employment Report.

ADP said the U.S. private sector added 204,000 jobs from March to April, beating the 190,000 median forecast. The ADP National Employment report is derived from actual payroll data, while the Employment Situation is derived from data collected in a household survey.

Revisions

The Labor Department (DOL) via the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the total number of jobs created in February was revised down slightly from +326,000 to +324,000. However, that was easily offset by the change for March, which was upwardly revised up from +103,000 to +135,000.

With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 30,000 more than previously reported.

The U.S. economy created 164,000 jobs in

Politics

Michael Cohen, personal attorney for U.S. President Donald Trump, talks to reporters as he departs after meeting with Senate Intelligence Committee staff as the panel investigates alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. September 19, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Michael Cohen, personal attorney for U.S. President Donald Trump, talks to reporters as he departs after meeting with Senate Intelligence Committee staff as the panel investigates alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. September 19, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald Trump ripped NBC early Friday over its retracted report claiming the phone lines of his attorney Michael Cohen had been wiretapped leading up to the raid.

“NBC NEWS is wrong again!” President Trump tweeted. “They cite ‘sources’ which are constantly wrong. Problem is, like so many others, the sources probably don’t exist, they are fabricated, fiction! NBC, my former home with the Apprentice, is now as bad as Fake News CNN. Sad!”

Initially, the outlet reported that Mr. Cohen’s phones were wiretapped prior to the FBI raiding his home, office and hotel room last month. The news organization claimed to have two solid sources. Further, the story claimed at least one conversation was with the White House.

In response, the media spent the day speculating whether the FBI had President Trump and Mr. Cohen on tape. But Chuck Todd announced they issued a correction to the original report on Thursday.

Investigators were only logging phone numbers, but not listening in. Federal investigators used what’s known as a pen register, or a dialed number recorder (DNR), on at least one of Mr. Cohen’s phones. The device only records all numbers dialed from a given phone number, and the length of calls.

Mr. Cohen is under criminal investigation surrounding his personal business dealings, which include a $130,000 payment made in the weeks prior to the election to adult film star Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence over an alleged sexual encounter with President Trump in 2006.

Rudy Giuliani, a former U.S. attorney who now represents President Trump, said he has looked at the receipts and the payment was a personal reimbursement for monthly expenses, not an illegal campaign expense or in-kind donation.

The President’s enemies, including in the media, were hoping the complete opposite was true.

President Donald Trump ripped NBC News early

Economy

A waitress serves a steak and fried shrimp combo plate to a customer at Norms Diner on La Cienega Boulevard in Los Angeles, California May 20, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

A waitress serves a steak and fried shrimp combo plate to a customer at Norms Diner on La Cienega Boulevard in Los Angeles, California May 20, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

All 18 service sector industries reported growth in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) in April. The NMI came in at 56.8 for the month. That’s slightly less than the median economic forecast but still very strong.

There was a slowing in the rate of growth that was mostly attributed to the decline in the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes,” Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The respondents have expressed concern regarding the uncertainty about tariffs and the effect on the cost of goods.”

“Overall, the respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.”

This is the 105th consecutive month that the NMI posted growth. Worth noting, mining and construction continue to post very strong readings despite the tariff concerns.

The New Orders Index came in at a very strong 60%, slightly higher than the reading of 59.5% in March. The Employment Index declined 3% in April to 53.6% from the March reading of 56.6%. The Prices Index gained by 0.3%, indicating that prices increased in April for the 26th consecutive month.

All 18 service sector industries reported growth

Economy

A Boeing worker is pictured in the wing system installation area at their factory in Renton, Washington, U.S., February 13, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A Boeing worker is pictured in the wing system installation area at their factory in Renton, Washington, U.S., February 13, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. Census Bureau said factory orders easily beat the forecast by gaining 1.6% in March, and have increased in 7 of the last 8 months. The $7.8 billion, or 1.6% increase to $507.7 billion follows an upwardly revised 1.6% gain in February.

Summarized Data

Shipments have been up 15 of the last 16 months and increased $2.1 billion or 0.4% to $502.8 billion in March. That follows a 0.2% gain in February. Unfilled orders have gained in 6 of the last 7 months, rising $9.2 billion or 0.8% to $1,153.8 billion after a a 0.3% in February.

The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.52, up from 6.51 in February.

Inventories, up 16 of the last 17 months, gained $1.7 billion or 0.3% to $677.3 billion. That followed a 0.4% gain in February. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, unchanged from February.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods have been up 4 of the last 5 months and increased $6.5 billion or 2.6% to $255.2 billion in March. That’s unchanged from the previously published increase and this month’s gain follows a 3.6% in February.

The U.S. Census Bureau said factory orders easily

Economy

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $49.0 billion in March, a decline of $8.8 billion from a revised $57.7 billion in February. The is report on international trade in goods and services is conducted jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Exports came in at $208.5 billion, an increase of $4.2 billion from February, while imports declined $4.6 billion to $257.5 billion. The March decrease in the goods and services deficit was fueled by a decrease in the goods deficit of $7.5 billion to $69.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.3 billion to $20.5 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.5 billion, or 18.5%. Exports increased $39.2 billion, or 6.8% and imports increased $64.7 billion, or 9.1%.

The 3-month average goods and services deficit also fell $1.7 billion to $54.5 billion, with average exports increasing $1.6 billion to $204.6 billion and average imports falling less than $0.1 billion to $259.1 billion.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $49.0

Economy

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen.

The 4-week moving average for jobless claims came in at 221,500, a decline of 7,750 to the lowest level since March 3, 1973. when it was 221,250. First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose to a still very low seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ending April 28.

The previous week was unrevised at 209,000, the lowest level since December 6, 1969.

In lagging data, the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ending April 21, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was 1,756,000, a decrease of 77,000.

This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 8, 1973 when it was 1,717,000.

The 4-week moving average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was 1,833,250, a decline of 15,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 29, 1973 when it was 1,784,250.

The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,000 from 1,849,750 to 1,848,750.

Extended benefits were payable in the Virgin Islands during the week ending April 14 and claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal (hurricane devastation).

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 14 were in the Virgin Islands (4.5), Alaska (3.2), Connecticut (2.5), New Jersey (2.4), California (2.3), Puerto Rico (2.3), Pennsylvania (2.1), Illinois (1.9), Montana (1.9), Minnesota (1.8), and Rhode Island (1.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 21 were in Massachusetts (+4,228), Rhode Island (+1,697), Pennsylvania (+347), Vermont (+327), and Nevada (+156), while the largest decreases were in New York (- 18,469), California (-4,353), New Jersey (-1,786), Kentucky (-1,251), and Wisconsin (-967).

The 4-week moving average for jobless claims

Politics

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signs copies of her new book 'What Happened' at a book signing in Barnes and Noble bookstore on September 12, 2017 in New York City, NY, USA. (Photo: AP)

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signs copies of her new book ‘What Happened’ at a book signing in Barnes and Noble bookstore on September 12, 2017 in New York City, NY, USA. (Photo: AP)

Hillary Clinton on Wednesday said being a capitalist hurt her in the 2016 primaries because the Democratic base is filled with socialists. Time Inc. Brands CCO Alan Murray asked if her support hurt her in the Iowa caucus.

“Probably,” she said when asked by Time Inc. Brands CCO Alan Murray if it hurt her. The pair appeared in conversation as part of the Shared Value Leadership Summit in New York City.

“It’s hard to know but I mean if you’re in the Iowa caucuses and 41 percent of Democrats are socialists or self-described socialists, and I’m asked ‘Are you a capitalist?’ and I say, ‘Yes, but with appropriate regulation and appropriate accountability.’ You know, that probably gets lost in the ‘Oh my gosh, she’s a capitalist!’”

Mrs. Clinton barely defeated Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the Iowa caucuses in 2016. She garnered 49.9% of the delegates to 49.6% for Senator Sanders, a self-described socialist who captured the heart of the Democratic Party in 2016

While she ultimately prevailed against Senator Sanders, it was an embarrassingly drawn out nomination process. In the end, Senator Sanders could not appeal to the black Democratic voting base in the South.

Naturally, the Rapid Response Team at the RNC jumped all over it.

Hillary Clinton on Wednesday said being a

Economy

President Donald J. Trump speaks during a celebratory bill passage event following the final passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by Congress. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump speaks during a celebratory bill passage event following the final passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by Congress. (Photo: AP)

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the U.S. unemployment rate “will soon be in the threes” if job creation continues “at this pace.” His remarks came with the release of the latest stronger-than-anticipated ADP National Employment Report.

“Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said. “At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

ADP said the U.S. private sector added 204,000 jobs from March to April, beating the 190,000 median forecast.

According to the monthly jobs report referred to as the Employment Situation, which is conducted by the Labor Department (DOL) via the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate in the U.S. is currently at a 17-year low.

While they’ve since ticked up slightly 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, the unemployment rates for Hispanics (5.1%) and African Americans (6.9%) both fell to all-time lows under the Trump Administration.

The all-time low unemployment rate for Hispanics is 4.8%, while the all-time low for African Americans is 6.8% for African Americans. The impact from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is already showing, but analysts point to another major agenda item pushed by the White House.

“What the economists and market strategists have totally underestimated in their GDP forecasting is the positive effect from the multi-agency regulatory roll back from the Trump Administration,” TJM Investments analyst Tim Anderson said. “This has led to a record high level of business confidence indicators and most recently the highest level of industrial production in 3 years.”

If unemployment did fall into the threes, it would be the first time since November 2000. BLS reported on April 20 that the unemployment rate fell in March in 4 states, rose in 1 state, and was unchanged in 45 states and the District of Columbia.

The government jobs report is due out Friday and is also forecast to show 190,000 additional jobs for the month. The ADP National Employment report is derived from actual payroll data, while the Employment Situation is derived from data collected in a household survey.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said

Economy

A recruiter talks with a job seeker at the Construction Careers Now! hiring event in Denver, Colorado U.S. August 2, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A recruiter talks with a job seeker at the Construction Careers Now! hiring event in Denver, Colorado U.S. August 2, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The ADP National Employment Report said the U.S. private sector added 204,000 jobs from March to April, beating the median forecast. The consensus among economists was calling for 190,000, but labor demand was stronger-than-anticipated.

Private sector job growth was fueled largely by Small Businesses, which overall added 62,000. That includes 31,000 from small businesses with 1-19 employees, and 31,000 from businesses with 20-49 employees.

“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute said. “However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent.”

Medium or mid-sized businesses with 50-499 employees added 88,000 jobs and large businesses 500 or more employees added 54,000. Broken down, 500-999 employees added 12,000 and a 1,000-plus added 42,000.

Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month,” Yildirmaz added. “The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”

The Goods-producer Sector added a healthy 44,000, including 7,000 in Natural Resources & Mining. Prior to the Trump Administration, the mining industry, along with the factory sector, was on life support.

Manufacturing added another 10,000 and Construction a very healthy 27,000.

“Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said. “At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

The Service-providing Sector added a total 160,000 from March to April. That includes 14,000 in Trade, Transportation and Utilities. Information declined by 2,000, the only sub-sector to record a loss.

Financial Activities added 7,000, Professional & Business added 58,000, Education & Health added 39,000, while Leisure & Hospitality added 36,000.

Other Services posted a net 8,000 gain in private sector jobs.

The ADP National Employment report, which is derived from actual payroll data, measures the change in total non-farm private sector employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. It precedes the government jobs report known as the Employment Situation.

Conducted by the Labor Department (DOL) via the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the monthly jobs report tallies both the private and public sectors.

However, it is derived from responses collected in a household survey, not hard data. The median economic forecast is also calling for 190,000 jobs.

The ADP National Employment Report said the

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