TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Florida Gov. Rick Scott attends the “First for Jobs” rally with roughly 600 people on March 14, 2017. (Photo: Carolyn Allen)
A new study finds Red States have a higher taxpayer return on investment (ROI) than Blue States, with an average ranking of 20.60 juxtaposed to 32.85.
WalletHub took a look at state and local tax collections for each of the 50 states and contrasted them with 25 key metrics to gauge the quality of the services residents receive. They were broken down by 5 categories: Education, Health, Safety, Economy, and Infrastructure & Pollution.
Each category was worth 20 points.
Worth noting, States were classified as Red or Blue based on how they voted in the 2016 presidential election. That’s significant considering several states have policies that would not be considered Red or Blue. For instance, New Hampshire, which ranked first for ROI, is not a tax-and-spend state.
Whether it’s currently led by a Democrat or voted for a Democrat on the national level, policy-wise The Granite State is a conservative state.
Rank (1=Best)
State
Rank (50=Worst)
State
1
New Hampshire
41
Maryland
2
Florida
42
Delaware
3
South Dakota
43
Nevada
4
Colorado
44
New Mexico
5
Virginia
45
Vermont
6
Alaska
46
New York
7
Missouri
47
North Dakota
8
Texas
48
California
9
Utah
49
Arkansas
10
Iowa
50
Hawaii
Hawaii, which is arguably the Bluest of Blue States, has the worst taxpayer return on investment (ROI), with Arkansas (Red) and California (Blue) not far behind at 49 and 48, respectively.
Federal Taxes Paid vs. Spending Received by State
‘Taxpayer ROI’ Rank
(1=Best)
State
‘Total Taxes Paid per Capita’ Rank*
‘Overall Government Services’ Rank
1
New Hampshire
3
2
2
Florida
2
31
3
South Dakota
10
14
4
Colorado
14
13
5
Virginia
17
9
6
Alaska
1
49
7
Missouri
5
35
8
Texas
6
36
9
Utah
21
10
10
Iowa
36
3
11
Nebraska
28
11
12
Georgia
11
39
13
South Carolina
4
42
14
Arizona
12
37
15
Wisconsin
35
6
16
Tennessee
8
41
17
Idaho
23
20
18
Oklahoma
13
40
19
Ohio
15
32
20
Indiana
25
22
21
Kansas
30
16
22
Montana
16
33
23
North Carolina
19
30
24
Alabama
9
47
25
Maine
32
18
26
Illinois
34
15
27
Rhode Island
33
19
28
Michigan
27
29
29
Pennsylvania
31
25
30
Oregon
26
34
31
Kentucky
22
38
32
Wyoming
39
17
33
Washington
37
24
34
Louisiana
7
50
35
New Jersey
41
12
36
Massachusetts
43
7
37
Minnesota
47
1
38
Mississippi
18
45
39
Connecticut
46
8
40
West Virginia
24
44
41
Maryland
40
27
42
Delaware
42
23
43
Nevada
29
43
44
New Mexico
20
48
45
Vermont
48
4
46
New York
44
21
47
North Dakota
50
5
48
California
45
28
49
Arkansas
38
46
50
Hawaii
49
26
*“Per Capita” includes the population aged 18 and older.
Methodology
In order to determine which states yield the best and worst return on investment (ROI) for taxpayers, WalletHub compared the quality of government services received by residents to the total state and local taxes they pay in each of the 50 states.
First, we analyzed each state across five key government-service categories: 1) Education, 2) Health, 3) Safety, 4) Economy and 5) Infrastructure & Pollution. The categories were further broken down into 25 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the best quality of government service.
We then determined each state’s weighted average across all 25 metrics to calculate its “Overall Government Services Score.”
Finally, we constructed the Taxpayer ROI ranking by comparing each state’s “Overall Government Services Score” to its “Total Taxes Paid per Capita.” “Per Capita” includes the population aged 18 and older.
Media polls promulgate a midterm message of Republican collapse and Democratic success. They primarily rely upon the “generic ballot” national vote. How accurate was that media generic ballot polling the last time we faced a comparable circumstance: a controversial Republican incumbent and a GOP-controlled House?
In 2006, media institutions and universities conducted 75 surveys testing the generic ballot before Labor Day. How many of those 75 polls over-estimated the Democratic vote? Sixty-seven (67) of the 75. How many media polls under-estimated the Democratic vote? Seven (7) of the 75. How many media polls hit the target right on? One (1) of the 75 (It was Fox).
The median media poll over-estimated the Democratic vote by 4 points; the mean media poll also over-estimated the Democratic vote by 4 points. Take a glance at the averages by media outlets using the same pollsters this cycle:
Average Media-Projected Democratic Lead in 2006 Pre-Labor Day Generic Ballot
Poll
Result
ABC News
Democrat +13
NBC News
Democrat +11
CBS News
Democrat +11
Bloomberg News
Democrat +13
Washington Post
Democrat +13
Wall Street Journal
Democrat +11
New York Times
Democrat +11
Ipsos
Democrat +13
A few of the forecasts during the pre-fall season highlight the error rate: AP forecast a 20 point lead, Cook Political Report forecast a 20 point lead, CNN forecast a 22 point lead, ABC forecast a 15 point lead, Gallup forecast a 16 point lead, NPR forecast a 15 point lead, and so forth. The “margin of error” explanation cannot explain why the error overwhelmingly favored Democratic votes, a trend evidence since the inception of media polling of the generic ballot since the 1970’s.
This only begins to hint at the media polling problems for this cycle. Since 2012, there has been an earthquake in the foundations of polling. Polling has always been half art, half science. Telling the world you know what 100,000,000 voters are going to do based on talking to 1,000 people has always required as much artistic intuition as scientific skill. More and more pollsters employ their skillset to placate their media employers and polling “experts” (overwhelmingly liberal) rather than forecast accurately.
Equally, the science of polling faces unique barriers since 2012: first, the widespread use of cell-phone technology muted the effectiveness of landline polling, which shaped the cornerstone of polling since the 1970s; second, the incredibly low response rate of the public removed the “random” quotient in public opinion surveys, an essential predicate to the scientific pretensions of public opinion polls. Smart pollsters employ the new technology of online access to moderate the impact of these technology trends, but the media continues to ignore these techniques, refusing most online surveys and rejecting the IVR technology that can increase the number of responses for phone polls.
The first real test of this effect came in 2014. How did the national media generic ballot polls perform in the pre-fall 2014 surveys?
Average Media-Projected Democratic Lead in 2014 Pre-Labor Day Generic Ballot
Poll
Result
ABC News
Democrat +1
CNN
Democrat +1
CBS News
Democrat +2
Bloomberg News
Democrat +0
NPR
Democrat +2
Quinnipiac University
Democrat +1
Marist
Democrat +2
Gallup
Democrat +3
Republicans won the house vote nationally by 6 points in 2014. In other words, a Democratic media bias in 2006 of +4 over-estimating the Democratic vote turned into a 7 to 8 point bias in 2014, as the media over-relied on cell-phone surveys, a method of surveying that has no track record of success, especially in an era of low-response rates.
NBC News, CNN and Pew Research were each predicting a dead heat on Election Day. It is no wonder that both Pew and Gallup — the longest standing presidential year independent pollsters — both abandoned presidential ballot polling in the 2016 election. They know as much as anybody the unreliability of modern cell-heavy live phone polling in a low-response-rate era.
Another reason this is significant is Democrats likely need to perform better in the national vote in 2018 than they did in 2006; a 2006-sized victory likely leaves them short of a majority in either chamber of Congress, due to GOP control of state-level redistricting in 2010, and the stack-and-pack mentality of Democratic voting constituencies (overwhelmingly living in the same compacted areas, rather than in more ideologically diverse neighborhoods).
Upshot?
First, you cannot trust the media’s favorite polling analysts to be honest or accurate, when they refuse to tell their audience about this manifest bias in media generic ballot polling. Second, adjust media polls by 3 to 6 points in GOP’s favor to assess the true state of the race. Third, even with the likely turnout edge come fall, Democrats likely need a stable double-digit lead in the generic ballot to have a chance at taking either chamber come fall.
So far, they are, like the media’s polling reliability, coming up short.
Robert Barnes is a high-profile criminal defense lawyer and has been dubbed by the media as America’s most successful political gambler. Learn more at Barnes Law LLP.
Retired U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens departs the funeral of U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia at the Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception in Washington, February 20, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)
I don’t own an AR-15. I’m not a “gun person,” whatever that means. I hardly ever shoot. And I never hunt.
But I’m nonetheless a big supporter of private gun ownership. In part, this is because I have a libertarian belief in civil liberties. In other words, my default assumption is that people should have freedom (the notion of “negative liberty“), whereas many folks on the left have a default assumption for that the state should determine what’s allowed.
I’m sometimes asked, though, whether supporters of the 2nd Amendment are too rigid. Shouldn’t the NRA and other groups support proposals for “common-sense gun safety”?
Some of these gun-control ideas may even sound reasonable, but they all suffer from a common flaw. None of them would disarm criminals or reduce gun crime. And I’ve detected a very troubling pattern, namely that when you explain why these schemes won’t work, the knee-jerk response from the anti-gun crowd is that we then need greater levels of control. Indeed, if you press them on the issue, they’ll often admit that their real goal is gun confiscation.
Though most folks in leadership positions on the left are crafty enough that they try to hide this extreme view.
So that’s why – in a perverse way – I want to applaud John Paul Stevens, the former Supreme Court Justice, for his column in the New York Times that openly and explicitly argues for the repeal of the 2nd Amendment.
…demonstrators should…demand a repeal of the Second Amendment. …that amendment…is a relic of the 18th century. …to get rid of the Second Amendment would be simple and would do more to weaken the N.R.A.’s ability to stymie legislative debate and block constructive gun control legislation than any other available option. …That simple but dramatic action would…eliminate the only legal rule that protects sellers of firearms in the United States.
The reason I’m semi-applauding Stevens is that he’s an honest leftist. He’s bluntly urging that we jettison part of the Bill of Rights.
Many – if not most – people on the left want that outcome. And a growing number of the are coming out of the pro-confiscation closet. In an article for Commentary, Noah Rothman links to several articles urging repeal of the 2nd Amendment.
They’re talking about repealing the Second Amendment. It started with former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens and George Washington University Law Professor Jonathan Turley. …Turley and Stevens were joined this week by op-ed writers in the pages of Esquire and the Seattle Times. Democratic candidates for federal office have even enlisted in the ranksvvvvvvvv of those calling for an amendment to curtail the freedoms in the Bill of Rights. …anti-Second Amendment themes…have been expressed unashamedly for years, from liberal activists like Michael Moore to conservative opinion writers at the New York Times. Those calling for the repeal of the right to bear arms today are only echoing similar calls made years ago in venues ranging from Rolling Stone, MSNBC, and Vanity Fair to the Jesuit publication America Magazine.
But others on the left prefer to hide their views on the issue.
Indeed, they even want to hide the views of their fellow travelers. Chris Cuomo, who has a show on MSNBC, preposterously asserted that nobody supports repeal of the 2nd Amendment.
this is a lot of bunk. no one calling for 2A repeal. stop with the bogeymen. we need to stop the shootings and have a rational conversation about what can be done. https://t.co/P2MYoY4EtO
It’s also worth noting that Justice Stevens got scolded by a gun-control advocate at the Washington Post.
One of the biggest threats to the recovery of the Democratic Party these days is overreach. …But rarely do we see such an unhelpful, untimely and fanciful idea as the one put forward by retired Supreme Court justice John Paul Stevens. …Stevens calls for a repeal of the Second Amendment. The move might as well be considered an in-kind contribution to the National Rifle Association, to Republicans’ efforts to keep the House and Senate in 2018, and to President Trump’s 2020 reelection bid. In one fell swoop, Stevens has lent credence to the talking point that the left really just wants to get rid of gun ownership. …This is exactly the kind of thing that motivates the right and signals to working-class swing voters that perhaps the Democratic Party and the political left doesn’t really get them.
The bottom line is that the left’s ultimate goal is gutting the 2nd Amendment. Not much doubt of that, even if some leftists are politically savvy enough to understand that their extremist policy is politically suicidal.
But let’s set aside the politics and look at the legal issues. There’s another reason why I’m perversely happy about the Stevens oped. Even though he was on the wrong side of the case, he effectively admits that the 2008 Heller decision enshrined and upheld the individual right to own firearms.
And the five Justices who out-voted Stevens made the right decision. I’m not a legal expert, so I’ll simply cite some people who are very competent to discuss the issue. Starting with what Damon Root wrote for Reason.
One problem with Stevens’ position is that he is dead wrong about the legal history. …For example, consider how the Second Amendment was treated in St. George Tucker’s 1803 View of the Constitution of the United States, which was the first extended analysis and commentary published about the Constitution. For generations of law students, lawyers, and judges, Tucker’s View served as a go-to con-law textbook. …He observed the debates over the ratification of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights as they happened. And he had no doubt that the Second Amendment secured an individual right of the “nonmilitary” type. “This may be considered as the true palladium of liberty,” Tucker wrote of the Second Amendment. “The right of self-defense is the first law of nature.” In other words, the Heller majority’s view of the Second Amendment is as old and venerable as the amendment itself.
Well stated.
Though the real hero of this story is probably Joyce Lee Malcolm, the scholar whose work was instrumental in producing the Heller decision. John Miller explains for National Review.
Malcolm looks nothing like a hardened veteran of the gun-control wars. Small, slender, and bookish, she’s a wisp of a woman who enjoys plunging into archives and sitting through panel discussions at academic conferences. Her favorite topic is 17th- and 18th-century Anglo-American history… She doesn’t belong to the National Rifle Association, nor does she hunt. …She is also the lady who saved the Second Amendment — a scholar whose work helped make possible the Supreme Court’s landmark Heller decision, which in 2008 recognized an individual right to possess a firearm.
Ms. Malcolm started as a traditional academic.
For her dissertation, she moved to Oxford and Cambridge, with children in tow. …Malcolm’s doctoral dissertation focused on King Charles I and the problem of loyalty in the 1640s… The Royal Historical Society published her first book.
But her subsequent research uncovered some fascinating insights about the right to keep and bear arms.
At a time when armies were marching around England, ordinary people became anxious about surrendering guns. Then, in 1689, the English Bill of Rights responded by granting Protestants the right to “have Arms for their Defence.” Malcolm wasn’t the first person to notice this, of course, but as an American who had studied political loyalty in England, she approached the topic from a fresh angle. “The English felt a need to put this in writing because the king had been disarming his political opponents,” she says. “This is the origin of our Second Amendment. It’s an individual right.” …Fellowships allowed her to pursue her interest in how the right to bear arms migrated across the ocean and took root in colonial America. “The subject hadn’t been done from the English side because it’s an American question, and American constitutional scholars didn’t know the English material very well,” she says. …The Second Amendment, she insisted, recognizes an individual right to gun ownership as an essential feature of limited government. In her book’s preface, she called this the “least understood of those liberties secured by Englishmen and bequeathed to their American colonists.”
And it turns out that careful scholarship can produce profound results.
…in 2008, came Heller, arguably the most important gun-rights case in U.S. history. A 5–4 decision written by Scalia and citing Malcolm three times, it swept away the claims of gun-control theorists and declared that Americans enjoy an individual right to gun ownership. “…it gave us this substantial right.” She remembers a thought from the day the Court ruled: “If I have done nothing else my whole life, I have accomplished something important.” …the right to bear arms will not be infringed — thanks in part to the pioneering scholarship of Joyce Lee Malcolm.l
Let’s close with a video from Prager University, narrated by Eugene Volokh, a law professor at UCLA. He explains the legal and historical meaning of the 2nd Amendment.
In other words, the bottom line is that the Justice Stevens and other honest leftists are right. The 2nd Amendment would need to be repealed in order to impose meaningful gun control.
And I suppose it’s also worth mentioning that it won’t be easy to ban and confiscate guns if they ever succeeded in weakening the Bill of Rights. But hopefully we’ll never get to that stage.
Noor Salman, left, with Orlando nightclub killer Omar Mateen, right.
After three days of deliberation, a jury found Noor Salman not guilty of obstruction and providing material support to a terrorist organization. If convicted, the widow of the gunman who killed 49 people at an Orlando nightclub in 2016 faced life in prison.
Ms. Salman, who was born in California to Palestinian parents, wiped tears from her eyes after the first not guilty verdict was read in court. By the last verdict, she was openly sobbing in the court. Her uncle jumped out of his chair after the verdict was read.
“I’ve come here to tell you I told you so,” he told the media outside the courthouse. “I’ve known she is innocent.”
Defense attorneys argued Ms. Salman was a simple-minded woman with a low IQ. They said she was abused by her husband, who cheated on her with other women and concealed much of his life from her.
The trial exposed prosecutorial misconduct and stunning omissions by the federal government, including the revelation Mateen’s father, Seddique Mateen, was an informant for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for more than a decade.
Under both Robert Mueller and James Comey, the FBI was aware that Mr. Mateen made money transfers to Turkey and Afghanistan to support attacks by Islamic extremists against the Pakistani government.
They did nothing. FBI Special Agent Juvenal Martin testified that he considered developing the shooter as an informant after closing an investigation into comments he made at work in 2013 about belonging to terrorist organizations.
The defense requested a mistrial, but U.S. District Judge Paul Byron denied it.
“This trial is not about Seddique Mateen,” Judge Byron said. “It’s about Noor Salman.”
The prosecution was also scolded by Judge Byron for lying about whether Ms. Salman cased the Pulse nightclub with her husband, something the FBI knew was untrue “within days” of the shooting.
Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross, left, listens as President Donald Trump speaks at the White House. (Photo: Reuters)
Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement they “determined that reinstatement of a citizenship question on the 2020 decennial census questionnaire is necessary to provide complete and accurate census block level data.” The decision came after a request by the Justice Department (DOJ) was made in December.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds a supermajority (66%) of Americans agree that the U.S. Census Bureau should ask respondents whether they are citizens of the United States.
Only 25% disagree.
Worth noting, the measure is support by 65% of whites, 64% of blacks and 70% of other races and ethnicities.
Further, a whopping 89% of American Adults agree it’s at least somewhat important for the government to get as accurate a count of the U.S. population as possible in the U.S. Census, including 69% who say it’s Very Important. Just seven percent (7%) do not think getting an accurate population count via the census is important, with two percent (2%) who say it’s Not At All Important.
In response to the citizenship question, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra became the first of 19 Democrats to announce he will sue the Trump Administration. While that move may be popular in California, it isn’t nationwide. Even 53% of Democrats disagree with Mr. Becerra and the majority of elected officials in their own party.
Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans and 66% of unaffiliated voters, also agree.
Democrats publicly argue that the U.S. Census surveys people, not citizens, and that non-citizens will be afraid to take it if the changes move forward. However, there are truer reasons for their opposition that are not shared publicly.
First, the U.S. Census collects the population data used to determine representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. Second, federal spending is allocated based on data collected by the U.S. Census. Third, it also determines how many electoral votes each state will send to the Electoral College.
Without a citizenship question, illegal immigrants do in fact impact U.S. elections, whether they vote or not.
Historically, the U.S. asked a citizenship question from 1820 to 1950. The Commerce Department also noted that “the citizenship question would be the same as the one posed in the annual American Community Survey (ACS).” The major difference is the sample size, with the ACS being a much smaller percentage of households than the actual census.
The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on March 27-28, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.
Graphic for the Generic Ballot, otherwise known as the Generic Congressional Ballot or Generic House Vote. (Photo: Christos Georghiou/Adobe Stock/PPD)
In January, Robert Barnes, a high-profile criminal defense lawyer and “America’s most successful political gambler,” wrote a guest column on People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) pushing back on the media narrative claiming the Democratic Party would retake the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
It was a catalyst for a great debate on Twitter.
While media pundits and forecasters are overly confident, some Democratic strategists are beginning to voice their doubts.
Robin Biro said Thursday on Fox News that he was “a realist” and even though he’d love to be optimistic about the party’s chances, “we’re not there yet.” He correctly noted that Democrats would need to win the national congressional vote by a margin they’ve not received in roughly 40 years.
Glancing at the generic ballot polling, one could easily get the impression that’s certainly possible. And to be clear, it is possible. Many things are possible in political elections. But given their track record, Mr. Biro’s skepticism is wise.
Historically, the generic ballot has overstated support for the Democratic Party in all but two midterm elections since 1966. Below is a graph displaying each midterm election cycle and the number of points by which polling either overstated or understated support for Congressional Democrats nationwide.
Red indicates their support was overstated, or when and by how much they underperformed the polls ahead of Election Day, while blue indicates when and by how much they outperformed.
In only two cycles — 1986 and 1990 — Democrats didn’t underperform their support indicated by the generic ballot. Further, in only one of those cycles (1990), did Democrats outperform, albeit by a meager two points. In 1986, the polling was right on the money.
For those who follow the PPD Election Projection Model, you know “we’re not there yet,” either. We do not have enough special election data to draw any solid conclusions, though the needle has undoubtedly moved closer toward the Democrats given low GOP voter enthusiasm. Conor Lamb will not be the model Congressional Democrat and Roy Moore will not be the model for a Congressional Republican.
What we do have is a clear pattern: the lower the turnout, the more it has benefitted Democratic candidates both statewide and in congressional districts. With the exception of PA-18, which we do believe to be an exemption, we have not detected “mind-changers” in these special elections.
In other words, people haven’t changed their minds and Democrats have certainly not seen a surge in voter registration. Only in Virginia have we seen an uptick in party affiliation for Democrats in our likely voter surveys.
That void leaves us with historical data and demographic voting patterns, neither of which bode particularly well for Democrats given Republicans’ distinct advantages in congressional districts.
U.S. President Donald Trump (third from right) and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (right) meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin (third from left) and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany on July 7. (Photo: Kremlin via Reuters)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Russia expelled 60 U.S. diplomats and closed the consulate in St. Petersburg. It’s a reactionary response to the Trump Administration expelling 60 Russian diplomats and intelligence operatives from the United States, 48 from the embassy and 12 from the United Nations (UN).
Mr. Lavrov said that the U.S. ambassador had been informed of “retaliatory measures,” which include “the expulsion of the equivalent number of diplomats and our decision to withdraw permission for the functioning of the U.S. consulate general in Saint Petersburg.”
Worth noting, the Twitter account for the Russian embassy conducted a Twitter poll asking which location should be closed after the U.S. move. St. Petersburg won a plurality with 47%. The closure of two more consulates is also under consideration, though the response thus far has been symmetrical.
US administration?? ordered the closure of the Russian Consulate in Seattle @GK_Seattle??. What US Consulate General would you close in @Russia, if it was up to you to decide
The U.S. State Department said Russia used a military-grade nerve agent to attempt to murder Sergei Skripal, a British citizen and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury on March 4. The attack put countless civilian lives at risk and in fact resulted in serious injury to 3 people, including a police officer.
In a show of solidarity with the United Kingdom (UK), more than 20 countries have expelled Russian diplomats from their countries. The UK expelled 23 Russian diplomats last week, though Russia denies any role in the attack in Salisbury.
U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania meet Pope Francis during a private audience at the Vatican, May 24, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
The Vatican is pushing back on reports Pope Francis said “there is no Hell,” a claim contradicting basic teachings of the Catholic Church. Eugenio Scalfari, the pope’s longtime atheist friend, published the interview headlined, “The Pope: It is an honor to be called revolutionary” on March 28, 2018 in La Repubblica.
Mr. Scalfari to Pope Francis:
Your Holiness, in our previous meeting you told me that our species will disappear in a certain moment and that God, still out of his creative force, will create new species. You have never spoken to me about the souls who died in sin and will go to hell to suffer it for eternity. You have however spoken to me of good souls, admitted to the contemplation of God. But what about bad souls? Where are they punished?
Pope Francis responded:
They are not punished, those who repent obtain the forgiveness of God and enter the rank of souls who contemplate him, but those who do not repent and cannot therefore be forgiven disappear. There is no hell, there is the disappearance of sinful souls.
The report garnered worldwide attention, for good reason. The alleged remark is in direct conflict with the Catechism of the Catholic Church. Part 1, Chapter 3 (I Believe in the Holy Spirit), Article 12 Section 4 (1035), reads as follows:
The teaching of the Church affirms the existence of hell and its eternity. Immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into hell, where they suffer the punishments of hell, “eternal fire.” The chief punishment of hell is eternal separation from God, in whom alone man can possess the life and happiness for which he was created and for which he longs.
But now the Vatican claims the quote given by the author was not a “faithful transcription,” but rather Mr. Scalfari’s “reconstruction.”
“The Holy Father Francis recently received the founder of the newspaper La Repubblica in a private meeting on the occasion of Easter, without however giving him any interviews. What is reported by the author in today’s article [in La Repubblica] is the result of his reconstruction, in which the textual words pronounced by the Pope are not quoted. No quotation of the aforementioned article must therefore be considered as a faithful transcription of the words of the Holy Father.”
Consumer Spending and Consumer Sentiment. (Photo: AP)
The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, was slightly off the mid-month reading but still at the highest since 2004. The Current Economic Conditions Index, at 121.2, was also down from the mid-month but still sets an all-time record high.
The slightly decline to 101.4 came from concerns over tariffs, which have been amplified by the media.
“Importantly, all of the March gain in the Sentiment Index was among households with incomes in the bottom third (+14.1); those in the middle third were unchanged, while the Index fell among households in the top third (-5.6),” Richard Curtain, chief economist at Survey of Consumers said.
“Households with incomes in the top third cited significantly greater concerns with government economic policies than last month, especially trade policies, with net references falling from +31 to just +1, offsetting their positive reactions to tax policies.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expectedly raised the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points last week, with two more interest rate hikes forecasted in 2018. Consumers expect interest rates will increase in the foreseeable future and view the current level as still relatively low. They also believe future interest rate hikes are intended to dampen the future pace of economic growth.
“Their reaction will both emphasize borrowing-in-advance of those expected increases as well as heighten their precautionary savings motives,” Mr. Curtain added. “The trade-off between spending and saving will crucially depend on the pace of future interest rate hikes compared with the pace of income growth. It is likely that income growth will initially dominate, tilting consumers’ motives more toward spending than saving.”
Overall, the data indicates a growth rate of 2.6% for consumption from mid-2018 to mid-2019. The next data release — the preliminary reading for April — is scheduled for Friday, April 13, 2018 at 10:00 AM EST.
SUV parts are fabricated in the stamping facility at the General Motors Assembly Plant on June 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) unexpectedly fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March, down from 61.9 in February, hitting the lowest level in exactly one year. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said growth in the Barometer, which has been extraordinarily strong, moderated for a third straight month.
Three of the five Barometer components receded on the month, with only Employment and Supplier Deliveries expanding.
“The Chicago Business Barometer calendar quarter average had increased for six straight quarters until Q1 2018, with the halt largely due to the recent downward trajectory of orders and output,” said Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators.
Compared to March last year, the Barometer was up 0.5%. On the quarter, the Barometer was down on Q4 2017 but Q1’s outturn was still the second-best calendar quarter result since Q2 2014 and the best first quarter outturn since 2011.
“Troubles higher up in firms’ supply chains are restraining their productive capacity and higher prices are being passed on to consumers,” Mr. Satchi added. “On a more positive note, firms remain keen to expand their workforce.”
Indeed, the Employment indicator rose to the second highest level in the past 12 months.
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