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A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) rose 1.6% in the fourth quarter (4Q) of 2017 and house prices were up 6.7% from 4Q 2016 to 4Q 2017. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.3% from November, juxtaposed to a 0.6% median forecast.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Worth noting, in a rare exception to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index also released Tuesday, the West showed slightly less strength in the HPI. Meanwhile, the Mountain and Pacific regions took the lead in gains.

“The fourth quarter showed absolutely no letup in the remarkable pace of home price appreciation through the country, “said Andrew Leventis, Deputy Chief Economist. “As we begin to track home prices in the first quarter, we will be interested to see whether new headwinds—higher mortgage rates and changes in tax laws—will lead to any moderation in the rate of price growth.”

Significant Findings Via FHFA

  • Home prices rose in 49 states (all except Mississippi) and the District of Columbia between the fourth quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2017.  The top five areas in annual appreciation were:  1) District of Columbia 14.3 percent; 2) Washington 12.0 percent; 3) Idaho 11.5 percent; 4) Nevada 11.5 percent; and 5) Utah 10.7 percent.
  • Home prices rose in each of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters.  Annual price increases were greatest in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD), where prices increased by 15.0 percent.  Prices were weakest in San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA (MSAD), where they rose 0.5 percent.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest annual appreciation, posting an 8.8 percent gain since the fourth quarter of last year and a 2.3 percent increase since the third quarter of 2017.  Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the Middle Atlantic division, where prices rose 5.3 percent annually.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index covering all 9 U.S. census divisions rose 6.3% annually in December, up from 6.1% last month. The 10-City Composite posted an annual increase of 6.0%, unchanged from last month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% last month.

All 3 either met or, in the case of the monthly 20-city, beat the median economic forecast.

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Across the 20 cities covered by S&P Corelogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62%; over the same period,inflation was 12.4%. None of the cities covered in this release saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017.”

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price gain, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% gain and San Francisco with a 9.2% gain.

Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017. But of the 20 cities covered in this release, none of them saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017.

“The National Index, which reached its low point in 2012, is up 38% in six years after adjusting for inflation, a real annual gain of 5.3%,” Mr. Blitzer added. “The National Index’s average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.”

As we’ve seen in other housing market data, inventory shortages are causing home price increases and reduced home sales. The National Association of Realtors (NRA) over the last few months have posted disappointing existing and pending home sales data, which Mr. Blitzer says will begin to put downward pressure on prices in the upcoming months.

“Within the last few months,there are beginning to be some signs that gains in housing may be leveling off. Sales of existing homes fell in December and January after seasonal adjustment and are now as low as any month in 2017,” he added. “Pending sales of existing homes are roughly flat over the last several months. New home sales appear to be following the same trend as existing home sales.”

“While the price increases do not suggest any weakening of demand, mortgage rates rose from 4% to 4.4% since the start of the year.It is too early to tell if the housing recovery is slowing. If it is, some moderation in price gains could be seen later this year.”

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home

Broward Sheriff Scott Israel, left, shouts at National Rifle Association (NRA) Spokesperson Dana Loesch during a CNN town hall meeting, at the BB&T Center, in Sunrise, Florida, U.S. February 21, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)

A majority of Americans think that government error is more responsible for the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida, rather than a lack of gun control. A new national survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports finds 54% of American adults believe the failure of government agencies to respond to numerous warning signs is more to blame for the mass shooting.

Thirty-three percent (33%) attribute the deaths more to a lack of adequate gun control and 11% say something else. Of those Americans who have children of elementary or secondary school age, a hopping 61% say the government is more to blame and just 23% say a lack of adequate gun control.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of men, 53% of women, 51% of adults ages 18 to 39,  59% of adults ages 40 to 64 and 49% ages 65 and above all say government. That also includes 58% of white adults, 44% of black adults and 50% of adults of other races. Fifty-five percent (55%) of unaffiliated adults agree with 75% of Republicans and even 36% of Democrats.

The shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School was perpetrated by 19-year-old Nikolas Cruz, who ultimately killed 17 people and wounded at least 14 others. Fatalities included 14 students and 3 educators. Government agencies from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) down to the local level failed to take action even though they had repeated and specific warnings.

First Responders, Broward County Sheriff’s Deputies Told Not to Enter School

Richard Baris, Editor-in-Chief at PPD Elections and Director of Big Data Poll, echoed the findings of the Rasmussen Reports survey. While the Big Data Poll found increased support for stricter gun control levels in the immediate aftermath of the tragic shooting on Valentine’s Day, Floridians still opted for arms guards and personnel over gun control.

“We’ve seen this many times before in the aftermath of a mass shooting. The immediate, dare I say emotional reaction, results in a bump in the support for stricter gun control laws,” he said. “We measured that in Florida a few days after the shooting, but warned readers that support was soft. It’s now collapsing.”

Americans are watching the new, now daily revelations of apparent incompetence by government very closely. Still, Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel, a vocal critic of the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the Second Amendment, is refusing to resign.

Ninety percent (90%) of all Americans say they have been following news reports about the Florida killings at least somewhat closely, with 53% who have been following Very Closely.

Poll: Most Americans Think Violent Movies, Video Games Lead to Violence in Society

The national survey of 1,000 American adults was conducted from February 21-22, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.

A majority of Americans think that government

Violent Movies Violent Video Games Kid

Most Americans agree that violent movies and violent video games lead to more violence in society, a new poll finds. A new national survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports finds 52% of American Adults think violent video games lead to more violence in our society and 51% say the same of violent movies.

The percentage believing violent video games lead to more violence is up from 46% in 2014 but in line with findings in July 2012 just weeks after the movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado. The percentage believing violent movies lead to violence in society is unchanged from three years ago, though down from a high of 62% in 2011.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Americans do not blame violent video games for the seeming increase in societal violence and 16% are not sure. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree on violent movies and 15% are undecided. But those most likely to go to the movies and play video games are the least critical of them. Those under 40 are far less likely than their elders to see either as leading to more violence in our society.

First Responders, Broward County Sheriff’s Deputies Told Not to Enter School

Worth noting, the Council on Communications and Media from the American Academy of Pediatrics agrees with the majority of Americans. A study entitled Media Violence published on November 1, 2009, concludes:

Research has associated exposure to media violence with a variety of physical and mental health problems for children and adolescents, including aggressive and violent behavior, bullying, desensitization to violence, fear, depression, nightmares, and sleep disturbances… Several different psychological and physiologic processes underlie media violence on aggressive attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, and emotions, and these are well understood.

In other words, mass shooters such as Nikolas Cruz, Adam Lanza, Jared Loughner, and other already-troubled individuals are emboldened by and act upon behaviors depicted in media and entertainment. The minds of growing, otherwise normal children are polluted by them, as well.

Poll: Americans Blame Government, Not Gun Control for Florida School Shooting

The national survey of 1,000 American adults was conducted from February 21-22, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. See methodology.

Most Americans agree that violent movies and

Sources Say Lack of Body Cams Delayed Securing School, Which In Turn Delayed EMS

Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel speaks before the start of a CNN town hall meeting at the BB&T Center, in Sunrise, Florida, U.S. February 21, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)

Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel speaks before the start of a CNN town hall meeting at the BB&T Center, in Sunrise, Florida, U.S. February 21, 2018. (Photo: Reuters)

Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel has blamed everyone except himself in the wake of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. That includes his own deputy, who has been identified as the school’s assigned resource officer, Scot Petersen,

Mr. Peterson resigned following the decision by Sheriff Israel to suspend him without pay after viewing his actions caught on video during the massacre. He faced possible dismissal pending an investigation. But another investigation is uncovering details that should concern Sheriff Israel.

Multiple sources tell People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) at least 3 other Broward County sheriff’s deputies responded to the shooting but did not enter the building because they were told not to do so without body cameras. Deputies first on the scene apparently did not have body cams with them, so they instead took cover behind their vehicles instead of immediately going into the school to meet the threat.

Sources also tell PPD that the delay in securing the school resulted in the further delay of Emergency Medical Services (EMS). EMS requested entry into the high school to retrieve and treat the victims of 19-year-old Nikolas Cruz, who ultimately killed 17 people and wounded at least 14 others. Fatalities included 14 students and 3 educators.

Meanwhile, the Broward County Sheriff’s Office have not been truthful with those conducting the investigation on behalf of Governor Rick Scott and, by extension, Attorney General Pam Bondi. Inaccurate information on the handling of the response to the shooting was given on at least one occasion.

Attorney General Bondi made remarks on Fox News Monday that insinuated local officials intentionally attempted to hide the truth surrounding the response.

“I know a lot more than you all do now, so all I’m going to say is, yes, I believe there needs to be a full investigation,” she said. “I don’t think some people were being honest and we’re going to investigate this in Florida and the right thing will be done.”

Sheriff Israel dismissed earlier reports of separate deputies responding to the scene.

“Our investigation to this point shows that during this horrific attack, while this killer was inside the school, there was only one law enforcement person, period, and that was former deputy Scot Peterson,” he said in an interview with CNN on Sunday.

Sources disagree and, when pushed, Sheriff Israel did not rule out the possibility that the investigation could reveal other deputies did indeed fail to act accordingly. The tragic event lasted only about 6 or 7 minutes, according to the Broward County Sheriff’s Office.

Joseph DiRuzzo, the defense lawyer for Mr. Peterson, said his client was not a coward as Sheriff Israel claimed, but instead did not go inside the high school because he believed the event was happening outside the building. Me. Peterson claims to have been outside of Building 12 after responding to a report of firecrackers, “not gunfire.”

“Let there be no mistake, Mr. Peterson wishes that he could have prevented the untimely passing of the seventeen victims on that day, and his heart goes out to the families of the victims in their time of need,” Mr. DiRuzzo said in a statement. “However, the allegations that Mr. Peterson was a coward and that his performance, under the circumstances, failed to meet the standards of police officers are patently untrue.”

Sheriff Israel, who said his office “may never” release the video of the events, is facing growing calls to resign amid new, now daily revelations of apparent incompetence. Governor Scott has led those calls and Republican lawmakers in the state have signed a letter asking him to remove Sheriff Israel if he does not resign, himself.

Democratic politicians in and out of Broward County chose not to put their signatures on the letter, though privately they have given Republicans their nod of approval to move for his removal.

First responders were told for various reasons

Trump Administration Imposed the Toughest, Most Severe Sanctions Against North Korea Ever

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe walks to his seat at a luncheon with President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the Palace Hotel during the United Nations General Assembly, Thursday, Sept. 21, 2017, in New York. From left, Vice President Mike Pence, Abe, Trump, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Photo: AP Photo)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe walks to his seat at a luncheon with President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the Palace Hotel during the United Nations General Assembly, Thursday, Sept. 21, 2017, in New York. From left, Vice President Mike Pence, Abe, Trump, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Photo: AP Photo)

The White House said Monday that the “maximum pressure campaign must continue” against North Korea until Pyongyang agrees to denuclearization. On Friday, the Trump Administration via U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin unveiled the toughest sanctions against the tyrannical communist regime to date.

“President Donald J. Trump’s Administration is committed to achieving the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” the White House said in a statement. “The United States, our Olympic Host the Republic of Korea, and the international community broadly agree that denuclearization must be the result of any dialogue with North Korea.”

The severe sanctions target 27 entities, 28 vessels, and 1 individual for evading existing sanctions. According to General Dynamics, China “angrily” demanded that the U.S. retract the new sanctions. However, the White House made it clear that President Trump will not capitulate.

“The maximum pressure campaign must continue until North Korea denuclearizes,” the White House added. “As President Trump has said, there is a brighter path available for North Korea if it chooses denuclearization.”

President Trump mentioned the sanctions during his speech at Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual event put on by the American Conservative Union in National Harbor, Maryland. Meanwhile, Pyongyang decided to send Kim Yong-chol to lead the North Korean high-level delegation to the closing ceremony of the Olympics games on Sunday.

The move is widely seen as an insult to South Korea. He is the vice chairman of the Workers Party Central Committee, and is the mastermind of two major attacks.

The first came in May 2010, when North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan, killing 46 crew members. In November 2010, North Korea killed South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.

But as it relates to the U.S., Pyongyang signaled a willingness to begin a dialogue between the two nations.

“We will see if Pyongyang’s message today, that it is willing to hold talks, represents the first steps along the path to denuclearization. In the meantime, the United States and the world must continue to make clear that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are a dead end.”

The White House said Monday that the "maximum

President Donald Trump talks as First Lady Melania Trump and surgeon Dr. John Fildes listens at the University Medical Center after Trump met with survivors of the mass shooting on Wednesday, October 4, 2017, in Las Vegas. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump talks as First Lady Melania Trump and surgeon Dr. John Fildes listens at the University Medical Center after Trump met with survivors of the mass shooting on Wednesday, October 4, 2017, in Las Vegas. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump said during the Governors’ Ball at the White House on Monday that he will take executive action on bump stocks regardless of what Congress decides. The nation’s governors gathered in D.C. to discuss public safety and other issues, particularly school safety.

“I’m writing out bump stocks myself,” President Trump said in the State Dining Room. “I don’t care what they do in Congress. I’m writing that out myself.”

The president’s remarks come after a school shooting in Parkland, Florida left 17 people dead. A bump stock, which is a mechanism that allows a semi-automatic rifle to repeatedly pull the trigger at a high rate, was used by Stephen Paddock in Las Vegas, Nevada, in 2017.

He met with the National Rifle Association (NRA) at the White House on Monday morning before the gathering of governors. The NRA, which is made up of millions of law-abiding gun owners, has been targeted by the left for boycotts and scapegoating since the shooting.

“They’re on our side,” President Trump told the governors.

In truth, the NRA has been pushing lawmakers to strengthen the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is a product of their lobbying on Capitol Hill. Only 5 years ago, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., promised NRA President Wayne LaPierre that he would support a bill that beefs up NICS and expands it to include mental health reform.

However, while President Trump said the gun rights group was on board with a rifle ban for young adults below the age of 21, the NRA’s stated position contradicts that claim.

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) just explained, the statistical data doesn’t support the idea that younger people are more likely to commit gun violence than other adults. The average age for perpetrators of mass shootings is 33 years-old. Further, less than 3% of all gun murders are committed with rifles.

Mr. Paddock, the perpetrator of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history, was 64 years old. Andrew Kehoe, who committed the most deadly mass murder at a U.S. school on May 18, 1927, was in his late 50s.

Mr. Kehoe used explosive devices to kill 38 elementary school children and 6 adults, not an AR-15 or some other rifle.

President Donald Trump said during the Governors'

Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)

Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)

In a recent column, I shared a humorous video mocking the everywhere-its-ever-been-tried global failure of socialism.

And I tried to preempt the typical response of my left-wing friends by pointing out that Scandinavian nations are not role models for statism.

In global ranking of economic liberty, Nordic nations score relatively high, with Denmark and Finland in the top 20. Scandinavian nations have large welfare states, but otherwise have very laissez-faire economic policies. Nordic nations got rich when government was small, but growth has slowed since welfare states were imposed.

Based on some of the emails I received, some critics have a hard time understanding this argument.

All of which is very frustrating since I’ve repeatedly tried to make this point. So I pondered the issue for hours, trying to figure out whether there was some way of helping people grasp the issue.

Maybe this chart from Economic Freedom of the World will help. It shows, based on the five major categories of economic liberty, that the once-significant gap between the United States and Scandinavia has almost completely disappeared.

 

In other words, anyone who claims that Scandinavian nations are socialist must also think that the United States also is socialist.

To be sure, there are differences. If you look at specific categories of economic liberty, America gets a noticeably better score than Nordic nations on fiscal policy.

 

But we get a significantly worse score for governance issues such as property rights, corruption, and the rule of law.

 

We also do a bit worse on trade and slightly better on regulation.

The bottom line is that both the United States and Scandinavian nations are market-oriented, but also saddled with plenty of bad government policies. If that makes us socialist, then what’s the right term for nations where government has a much bigger footprint, such as FranceItaly, or Greece?

How about Venezuela and Zimbabwe?

Or North Korea and Cuba?

What I’m saying is that there’s a spectrum and we should be cognizant that there are different degrees of statism. And nations closer to one end are much different from countries closer to the other end.

Statism-Spectrum-Ideological-SpectrumPlenty of other people make similar arguments about the Nordic countries.

Tim Worstall, writing about Finland for CapX, emphasizes the laissez-faire nature of Scandinavian nations, while also pointing out that there’s a degree of decentralization that makes big government somewhat less inefficient.

…high tax rates do indeed reduce economic growth rates by undercutting incentives. So do interfering bureaucracy and state planning. And so if you’re going to go overboard on one of those two then you’ve got to be minimalist on the other point. In other words, you’ve got to kill off bureaucracy in order to leave room for the tax rates and still have a growing economy. …That is more or less how Finland and other Scandinavians do things. …The other important point is quite how decentralised they all are. …A much larger piece of the pay packet goes to the local government… That money raised locally is then spent locally too. …There’s thus an efficiency to the system, something that gets lost when…people send their cash off to the national government to be distributed without that local accountability. …if you want that Scandi life then you’ve got to do it as they do. Very local government and taxation plus a distinctly less economically interventionist government.

Amen. Local government oftentimes is bad, but it’s rarely as bad as a centralized system.

I also found a must-read 2016 article for FEE by Corey Iacono.

Democratic socialism purports to combine majority rule with state control of the means of production. However, the Scandinavian countries are not good examples of democratic socialism in action because they aren’t socialist. In the Scandinavian countries, like all other developed nations, the means of production are primarily owned by private individuals, not the community or the government, and resources are allocated to their respective uses by the market, not government or community planning. …it is true that the Scandinavian countries provide…a generous social safety net and universal healthcare, an extensive welfare state is not the same thing as socialism. …The Scandinavians embrace a brand of free-market capitalism… The Economist magazine describes the Scandinavian countries as “stout free-traders who resist the temptation to intervene even to protect iconic companies.” …These countries all also rank in the top 10 easiest countries to do business.

If you don’t believe Worstall and Iacono, check out this table of data I prepared back in 2015.

I took the Economic Freedom of the World rankings and I removed the variables for fiscal policy.

And what you find is that Denmark, Sweden, and Finland were all in the top 10 for economic liberty. And Norway was #14.

That’s compared to #24 for the United States.

Heck, there were plenty of other European nations that ranked as being more free market than the United States.

So we should be grateful that we only have a medium-sized welfare state. Because our better score on fiscal policy helps to offset our comparatively anemic scores on the other four variables.

Having pointed out that the United States now has only a rather small advantage over Scandinavian nations when looking at all five measures of economic liberty, that’s still better than nothing.

It probably explains, for instance, why Americans of Scandinavian descent earn so much more than their cousins who remained back home.

And why Americans of all backgrounds generally enjoy higher living standards than folks in Europe, even the ones in Nordic nations.

The United States (US) now has only

For Sale sign outside the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. (Graphic Illustration)

For Sale sign outside the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. (Graphic Illustration)

At some point in the next 10 years, there will be a huge fight in the United States over fiscal policy. This battle is inevitable because politicians are violating the Golden Rule of fiscal policy by allowing government spending to grow faster than the private sector (exacerbated by the recent budget deal), leading to ever-larger budget deficits.

I’m more sanguine about red ink than most people. After all, deficits and debt are merely symptoms. The real problem is excessive government spending.

But when peacetime, non-recessionary deficits climb above $1 trillion, the political pressure to adopt some sort of “austerity” package will become enormous. What’s critical to understand, however, is that not all forms of austerity are created equal.

The crowd in Washington reflexively will assert that higher taxes are necessary and desirable. People like me will respond by explaining that the real problem is entitlements and that we need structural reform of programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Moreover, I will point out that higher taxes most likely will simply trigger and enable additional spending. And I will warn that tax increases will undermine economic performance.

Regarding that last point, three professors, led by Alberto Alesina at Harvard, have unveiled some new research looking at the economic impact of expenditure-based austerity compared to tax-based austerity.

…we started from detailed information on the consolidations implemented by 16 OECD countries between 1978 and 2014. …we group measures in just two broad categories: spending, g, and taxes, t. …We distinguish fiscal plans between those that are expenditure based (EB) and those that are tax based (TB)… Measuring the macroeconomic impact of a plan requires modelling the relationship between plans and macroeconomic variables.

Here are their econometric results.

There is a large and statistically significant difference between the effects on output of EB and TB austerity. EB fiscal consolidations have, on average, been associated with a very small downturn in output growth: a spending based plan worth one percent of GDP implies a loss of about half of a percentage point relative to the average GDP growth of the country, which lasts less than two year. Moreover, if an EB austerity plan is launched when the economy is not in a recession, the output costs are zero on average. …On the other hand TB plans are associated with large and long lasting recessions. A TB plan worth one per cent of GDP is followed, on average, by a two percent fall in GDP relative to its pre-austerity path. This large recessionary effect lasts several years.

Here’s a chart from the study showing that economic performance drops farther and farther to the extent taxes are part of an austerity package.

 

In addition to the core results, the authors explain why tax-based austerity packages are bad for capital…

…investment growth responds very differently following the introduction of the two types of austerity plans. It responds positively to EB plans and negatively to TB plans. …in their sample of OECD countries, business confidence increases immediately at the start of an EB consolidation plan, much more so that at the beginning of a TB plan.

…and why tax-based austerity packages are bad for labor.

…clearly tax hikes and spending cuts – beyond other effects – have different effects on labor supply. …EB plans are the least recessionary the longer lived is the reduction in government spending. Symmetrically, TB plans are more recessionary the longer lasting is the increase in the tax burden and thus in distortions.

Since capital and labor are the two factors of production, the obvious and inevitable conclusion is that the economy does worse when taxes are higher.

The study also make a critical point about the futility of tax increases when the burden of government spending is rising faster than the private sector. Simply stated, that’s a recipe for ever-increasing taxes, sort of like a dog chasing its tail.

…a TB plan which does not address the automatic growth of entitlements and other spending programs which grow over time if much less like likely to produce a long lasting effect on the budget. If the automatic increase of spending is not addressed, taxes will have to be continually increased to cover the increase in outlays.

That’s why spending restraint is the only way to successfully address red ink.

It doesn’t even require dramatic spending cuts, even though that would be desirable. All that’s needed is some modest fiscal restraint so that spending grows slower than the productive sector of the economy.

Nations that follow this approach for a multi-year period always get good results. But if you want examples of nations that have achieved good outcomes with tax increases, you’ll have to explore a parallel universe because there aren’t any on this planet.

At some point in the next 10

A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. Census Bureau said new residential sales statistics show new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, missing the median forecast. That’s 7.8% (±19.0%) below the revised December rate of 643,000 and is 1.0% (±16.4%) below the January 2017 estimate of 599,000.

The consensus was expecting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000.

Sales Prices

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2018 was $323,000. The average sales price was $382,700.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

As we’ve seen with other housing market data, a lack of supply is the root cause of the weakness in the beginning of the year.

The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 301,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.

Next Release

The February report is scheduled for release on March 23, 2018.

The U.S. Census Bureau said new residential

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