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Economy

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. trade deficit in December widened by $53.1 billion in December, up $2.7 billion from $50.4 billion in November and more than the $51.9 billion median forecast. The U.S. Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) joint report could be a potential drag on revisions to fourth quarter (4Q) gross domestic product (GDP).

The good news is that December exports were $203.4 billion, $3.5 billion (1.8%) more than November exports. The bad news is that December imports were $256.5 billion, $6.2 billion (2.9%) more than November imports.

The U.S. trade deficit in December widened

Politics

U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence ranking member Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) speaks with reporters about the Committee's Russia investigation on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 30, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence ranking member Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) speaks with reporters about the Committee’s Russia investigation on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 30, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Every single Republican in the House voted in favor of releasing the Democrat memo that aims to downplay grave abuses of the government surveillance programs. That compares to every single Democrat voting against the release of the bombshell memo authored by Republicans.

Now we know why.

The memo prepared largely by Representative Devin Nunes, the Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), revealed that officials at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department (DOJ) used false information to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Team Trump via peripheral advisors Carter Page and (later) George Papadopolous.

The two were used as an excuse to gather “incidental” intelligence on bigger players to include President Donald Trump, himself, before and after the election. The FISA court was not explicitly made aware that the dossiers were political opposition research funded by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the campaign for Hillary Clinton.

Couched in spin, the Democrat memo concedes the court was only told that it was “likely” the dossier had a “political motivation,” sources explained. At the time, officials were well-aware of the origins of the research and intentionally withheld that information while obtaining the warrant and misled the court.

It is a crime to both mislead the FISA court and to knowingly use unverified information during the process.

The Democrat memo will also claim the unverified dossier authored by former MI6 British Intelligence Officer Christopher Steele was not the only piece of evidence used to obtain the FISA warrant. However, former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and his former boss James Comey both admitted under oath that the FISA warrant would never have been obtained without it.

Last week, Mr. McCabe was “removed” from his post at the FBI amid conflicts of interest and ongoing investigations of misconduct.

Further, officials also did not make the court aware of the use of what is known as circular reporting, something the Democrat memo will not dispute.

Circular reporting, which is a cardinal sin in the intelligence community, is when numerous reports all cite the same source but gives the impression that the information comes from various verified sources. In this case, the information came from the same unverified source — the Steele dossier.

A Yahoo News article based on the contents of the unverified dossier was used to lend credibility to the allegations in the still-unverified dossier. At the time, officials were aware that the allegations made in the dossier were not verified.

Bank records obtained by the HPSCI probe show Fusion GPS, the shadowy smear firm hired by Clinton lawyer Marc E. Elias of Perkins Coie, made payments to at least 3 journalists known for covering Russian collusion stories. Yahoo News is cited as one of the news outlets “briefed” on the Kremlin-sourced dossier authored by Mr. Steele.

Representative Adam Schiff, the Ranking Member of the HPSCI, had been making public statements sourced in the unverified dossier during the campaign, well before it was first published by BuzzFeed. Multiple sources tell PPD that Mr. Schiff, a notorious leaker, sought to hide the revelation that the Clinton campaign and the DNC funded the dossier from his members of the committee.

Senators Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., sent a a criminal referral to Mr. Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray to investigate Mr. Steele, citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001, or making false statements to investigators particularly regarding the distribution of claims contained in the dossier. We learned from the expanded “Grassley memo” released Monday that there was indeed a second dossier and Mr. Steele lied to the FBI.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad. However, as PPD also previously reported, it has been “routinely” abused and misused to spy on domestic targets, including President Trump, his associates and other U.S. citizens.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein threatened to subpoena the call and text message records belonging to Chairman Nunes and other Republican members of the intelligence committee. The threat of relation was made by Mr. Rosenstein during a meeting that took place in January and specifically aimed at shutting down the investigation into FISA abuses.

Meanwhile, according to sources, the Democrat memo includes personal attacks on Chairman Nunes and Representative Trey Gowdy. Unlike the Republican memo, which simply laid out a fact pattern, the Democrat version will draw conclusions.

Mr. Schiff said he is concerned that the White House will redact information that is not favorable to their argument. But sources say the memo, which was largely authored by Mr. Schiff, “intentionally contains national security concerns regarding sources and methods.”

“It was written with the purpose of forcing the FBI or the White House to redact content that actually exposes security concerns,” the source said. “Then he [Adam Schiff] can run to the media claiming the Trump Administration is trying to hide something.”

The Democrat memo that aims to downplay

Economy

United States Postal Service (USPS) clerks sort mail at the Lincoln Park carriers annex in Chicago, Illinois on November 29, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

United States Postal Service (USPS) clerks sort mail at the Lincoln Park carriers annex in Chicago, Illinois on November 29, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) heated back up to 59.9 in January, a gain from 56 the previous month and much stronger than the 56.2 median forecast.

The NMI had been showing a welcomed cooling, moving down from the 60s in October to what was a lower-than-expected 56.0 in December (revised from an initial 55.9). But most readings were still in the mid-50s and indicate solid monthly growth.

“The non-manufacturing sector reflected strong growth in January after two consecutive months of pullback,” Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said. “Overall, the majority of respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions and the economy. They also indicated that recent tax changes have had a positive impact on their respective businesses.”

The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8%, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8%. That marks the 102nd consecutive month of growth, which came at a faster rate in January. The New Orders Index came in at 62.7%, 8.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted reading of 54.5% in December.

The Employment Index increased 5.3 percentage points in January to 61.6% from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.3%. The Prices Index increased by 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.9% to 61.9%. That marks the 23rd consecutive month prices increased.

PANEL RESPONSES

  • “Executive management [is] excited about tax breaks for CapEx purchases in [the] new tax bill.” (Information)
  • “Month-over-month steady growth, on average, [is] 3 percent on project volume and 1 percent on total revenue.” (Construction)
  • “Signs of strong growth [in] financial performance expectations given the recent tax changes.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Positive outlook for 2018. We see huge pricing pressure.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Business is starting off solid.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “First quarter begins slow like 2017, but expect things to pick up later in Q1. Outlook continues to look bright for 2018.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business activity is low due to the continued partial funding [of] bills passed (continuing resolutions).” (Public Administration)
  • “Overall, sales velocity looks strong. Some regional differences due to weather conditions, but overall, a strong month.” (Wholesale Trade)

The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services.

The three industries reporting contraction in January are: Information; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing

Opinion

Barack Obama, left, and Ronald Reagan, right.

Barack Obama, left, and Ronald Reagan, right.

I realize that such exercises are probably “click-bait,” but I generally can’t resist taking tests/quizzes designed to identify my philosophical/political orientation.

Here are some previous examples, all of which made sense.

But there was also a political quiz that pegged me as a “moderate,” which might be reasonable conclusion since libertarians have some right-wing views and some left-wing views. But that quiz also concluded that I had “few strong opinions,” which is a nonsensical result.

But maybe I really am a moderate because there’s a new 20-question quiz from IDRlabs and – as you can see – I’m exactly in the middle.

 

What makes this quiz interesting — or bizarre, depending on your outlook — is that none of the questions are about issues. Instead, you’re asked about lifestyle such as:

  • Are you orderly or messy?
  • Do you prefer country music or classical music?
  • Do you want your home on a busy street or quiet street?
  • Are philosophical discussions fun, boring, or pointless?
  • Do you like arugula?

At the risk of over-simplifying, if you give answers suggesting you prefer a quiet and conventional life, you’ll get a right-wing score. And you’ll get a left-wing score if your answers suggest you have a more eclectic approach to life (and, if you’re like me, you don’t know whether you like arugula, so you have a hard time answering certain questions).

For what it’s worth, I think the quiz does capture something important. There is research indicating that people’s policy views are largely determined by underlying values.

And these values are more important than economics. Coming from a leftist perspective, Thomas Frank wrote What’s the Matter with Kansas last decade to address the supposed paradox of people with modest incomes voting for conservative politicians. And Thomas Edsall, also coming from the left, observed in the New York Times that wealthy people have become Democrats.

So much for Marx’s theory of economic determinism!

This is outside of my area of expertise, but I’m interested in this type of analysis because it’s my job to proselytize in favor of freedom. So I often try to convince right wingers to have a more laissez-faire approach to social and international matters and I often try to convince left wingers to have a more laissez-faire approach to economic issues.

But how do you convince people about issues if their views are dependent on an underlying value system?

And it gets more complicated because of what’s happening in society.

I’ll share a couple of items that struck me as important. First, here’s some of what Peggy Noonan wrote in the Wall Street Journal.

There are the protected and the unprotected. The protected make public policy. The unprotected live in it. …The protected are the accomplished, the secure, the successful—those who have power or access to it. They are protected from much of the roughness of the world. …They are figures in government, politics and media. They live in nice neighborhoods, safe ones. Their families function, their kids go to good schools, they’ve got some money. All of these things tend to isolate them, or provide buffers. …They’re insulated from many of the effects of their own decisions. …This is a terrible feature of our age—that we are governed by protected people who don’t seem to care that much about their unprotected fellow citizens.

And here’s a video featuring David Goodhart of London’s Policy Exchange, who says that the split is now between the “anywheres” who are cosmopolitan and the “somewheres” who are traditional.

In some sense, it seems that politics is being determined by class.  The “protected” and the “anywheres” are increasingly on the left (the “rational left” rather than the Bernie variety). And the “unprotected” and the “somewheres” are voting blocs for the right.

Incidentally, this worries me because elites have a disproportionate influence on public policy, And there’s now cultural pressure for such people to adopt left-wing views (a good example is the condescending tone of this Washington Postcolumn). Simply stated, most educated people want to be seen as urbane and cosmopolitan, characteristics that are now associated with the left.

And it goes without saying that Trump is probably accelerating this process – which is doubly frustrating to me because his occasional support for good policydoesn’t change the fact that he’s not a supporter of free markets and limited government. Yet because he is now an avatar for the right, many educated people will now decide they should support statist policies and candidates.

The bottom line is that being an advocate for liberty is becoming an even bigger challenge!

A review of political quizzes, including the

Politics

Sources: Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein Said During Meeting in January He Would Subpoena Members’ Phone Records

Rod Rosenstein, nominee to be Deputy Attorney General, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington March 7, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Rod Rosenstein, nominee to be Deputy Attorney General, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington March 7, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein threatened to subpoena phone records belonging to members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) if they continued to investigate abuses of government surveillance programs, multiple sources confirm.

That threat included HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., himself.

Multiple sources confirmed to People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) that Mr. Rosenstein expressed his frustration with the committee’s oversight investigation during a meeting that took place on January 10. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Christopher Wray, Chairman Nunes and several others were present at the meeting.

Mr. Rosenstein said he was done “dealing with the intelligence committee” investigation and threatened to subpoena call and text message records belonging to Chairman Nunes and other HPSCI members.

The meeting in question took place before the highly-anticipated release of a memo prepared by Chairman Nunes and Republicans on the intelligence committee, which details FISA abuses by Mr. Rosenstein, former FBI director James Comey, the just ousted FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and other former Obama Administration officials.

These officials used false information to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Team Trump via peripheral advisors Carter Page and (later) George Papadopolous. Last week, Mr. McCabe was “removed” from his post at the FBI amid conflicts of interest and ongoing investigations of misconduct.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad. However, as PPD also previously reported, it has been “routinely” abused and misused to spy on domestic targets, including President Trump, his associates and other U.S. citizens.

In this case, the memo reveals the use of what is known as circular reporting — a cardinal sin in the intelligence community. A Yahoo News article based on the contents of the unverified dossier was used to lend credibility to the allegations in the still-unverified dossier. At the time, officials were aware that the allegations made in the dossier were not verified.

The FISA court was not explicitly made aware that the dossiers were political opposition research funded by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the campaign for Hillary Clinton.

Bank records obtained by the HPSCI probe show Fusion GPS, the shadowy smear firm hired by Clinton lawyer Marc E. Elias of Perkins Coie, made payments to at least 3 journalists known for covering Russian collusion stories. Yahoo News is cited as one of the news outlets “briefed” on the Kremlin-sourced dossier authored by former MI6 British Intelligence Officer Christopher Steele.

Senators Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., sent a a criminal referral to Mr. Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray to investigate Mr. Steele, citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001, or making false statements to investigators particularly regarding the distribution of claims contained in the dossier.

But Mr. Rosenstein fought tooth and nail to keep the memo secret, claiming it would damage national security by exposing sources and methods. According to sources, the January 10 meeting was not the only time the deputy attorney general told lawmakers there would be consequences for continuing the investigation or for releasing the memo.

In a meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., which took place in the speaker’s office before the memo was released, Mr. Rosenstein attempted to convince the man who is third in line to the presidency to call off Chairman Nunes and to suppress the release of the memo.

Speaker Ryan refused and the memo was released on Friday.

It did not contain anything damaging to national security. But it did damage the reputation and credibility of the leadership at the FBI and DOJ, including Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein.

Under Title 18, U.S.C., Section 242, it’s a crime for law enforcement officials acting under “color of any law to willfully deprive a person of a right or privilege protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States.”

That includes threatening a lawmaker or lawmakers.

In this case, multiple sources allege that Mr. Rosenstein was specifically attempting to obstruct or end the HPSCI probe into wrongdoings at the FBI and DOJ.

For the purpose of Section 242, acts under “color of law” include acts not only done by federal, state, or local officials within the their lawful authority, “but also acts done beyond the bounds of that official’s lawful authority, if the acts are done while the official is purporting to or pretending to act in the performance of his/her official duties.”

Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller against DOJ policy and the laws governing special counsels.

Section II(c) of the DOJ Government Ethics Outline demands, “No DOJ employee may participate in a criminal investigation or prosecution if he has a personal or political relationship with any person or organization substantially involved in the conduct that is the subject of the investigation or prosecution, or who would be directly affected by the outcome.”

28 USC Section 528 requires “the disqualification of any officer or employee of the Department of Justice, including a United States attorney or a member of such attorney’s staff, from participation in a particular investigation or prosecution if such participation may result in a personal, financial, or political conflict of interest, or the appearance thereof.”

“Such rules and regulations may provide that a willful violation of any provision thereof shall result in removal from office.”

The Department of Justice (DOJ) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein threatened to

Politics

FISA Court Was Not Told Dossier Was Political Opposition Research

U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, left, and former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe testifying before a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in Washington. (Photos: Reuters)

U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, left, and former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe testifying before a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in Washington. (Photos: Reuters)

A memo prepared by Republicans on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), which details abuses of government surveillance programs, reveals that officials at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department (DOJ) used false information to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Team Trump.

Read the full memo and the White House letter below, which contains nothing damaging to national security as Democrats and the intelligence community claimed. We suggest that you read it first and then the report that follows.

[documentcloud url=”http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4365381-HPSCI-FISA-Abuse-Memo.html” responsive=true]

“Our findings, which are detailed below, raise concerns with the legitimacy and legality of certain DUI and FBI interactions with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC), and represent a troubling breakdown of legal processes established to protect the American people from abuses related to the FISA process,” the memo states.

The false information was funded by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the campaign for Hillary Clinton, but officials never told the FISA court that it was political opposition research.  The nonprofit Campaign Legal Center (CLC) has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging both the Clinton campaign and the DNC violated campaign finance law by failing to accurately disclose payments for the dossier.

In other words, the genesis of the Russia collusion investigation came from false information paid for by President Donald Trump’s political opposition. The memo specifically names former FBI Director James Comey, who signed 3 of the warrants; Sally Yates, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, as well as the just ousted FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

This week, Mr. McCabe was “removed” from his post at the FBI amid conflicts of interest and ongoing investigations of misconduct.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad. However, it has been “routinely” abused and misused to spy on domestic targets, including President Trump, his associates and other U.S. citizens.

“I think it’s a disgrace what’s happening to our country,” President Trump said in a statement in reaction to the memo. “A lot of people should be ashamed of themselves and much worse than that.”

In this case, the memo alleges the use of circular reporting of fake news based on the contents of the unverified fake dossier to lend credibility to the allegations in the fake dossier.

Christopher Steele, a former MI6 British Intelligence Officer, also used a false media report from Yahoo News and others to beef up the credibility of his dossier research. Mr. Steele, who was the head of the Russia desk at MI6, almost exclusively used sources tied to the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Worth noting, Fusion GPS bank records show the shadowy firm paid numerous journalists at Big Media outlets including Yahoo News for Russian collusion stories.

Mr. Steele continued to have contact with now-disgraced DOJ official Bruce Ohr even after the FBI and DOJ cut off their relationship with him. Mr. Ohr, whose wife worked for Fusion GPS, was twice demoted for his misconduct.

He told Mr. Ohr that he desperately did not want President Trump to get elected.

Rep. Adam Schiff, the Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, had been making public statements sourced in the dossier during the campaign, well before it was first published by BuzzFeed. Multiple sources tell PPD that Mr. Schiff, a notorious leaker, sought to hide the revelation that the Clinton campaign and the DNC funded the dossier from his members of the committee.

Senators Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., sent a a criminal referral to Mr. Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray to investigate Mr. Steele, citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001, or making false statements to investigators particularly regarding the distribution of claims contained in the dossier.

The memo not only raises concerns about the investigation being conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller but also domestic spying programs under FISA.

As PPD also previously reported, the Obama Administration admitted at a FISA court hearing on October 26 (2016) that National Security Administration (NSA) intercept database searches “routinely” violated Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights.

A highly-anticipated memo detailing abuses of government

Economy

A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, climbed even higher in January to 95.7, up from 94.4 and beating the 95.0 median forecast. The Current Economic Conditions ticked down to 110.5 from 113.8 in December and Index of Consumer Expectations increased to 86.3 from 84.3.

“Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged for more than a year at very favorable levels,” Survey of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtain said. “The January Sentiment figure was just 0.2 Index-points below December’s, and just 1.1 points below the 2017 average of 96.8–which was the highest yearly average since 2000.”

Noteworthy, the increase in stock prices and the passage of tax reforms were mentioned by an all-time high number of consumers. The small offsetting declines among lower income households and residents of the Northeast are indicate of how inaccurate news reports can influence consumer sentiment. Only about 5% of Americans will see their taxes increase, to include those in high tax states such as those.

“Consumers continued to expect growth in jobs and incomes, but anticipated a slightly higher inflation rate,” Mr. Curtain added. “Importantly, the motivating force behind purchase decisions has shifted from discounts on prices and interest rates to increased confidence in future job security and growth in wages as well as financial assets.”

The Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed a significant decline in the savings rate along with substantial increases in consumer spending. The Survey of Consumers may offer some insight on that.

“This renewed sense of confidence was responsible for the recent declines in savings rates,” Mr. Curtain noted. “The tax cuts will increase discretionary spending once higher energy bills due to the unusually cold weather are paid. Monetary policy will need to tighten in the year ahead, but given consumers’ decade long experience with record low interest rates, only modest increases in interest rates will be sufficient to curb any excesses.”

“Overall, the data signal an expected gain of 2.8% in real personal consumption expenditures during 2018.”

Next data release: Friday, February 16, 2018 for Preliminary February data at 10: 00 AM EST

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

Economy

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The Labor Department via the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January jobs report and it easily beat expectations. The U.S. economy created 200,000 jobs, beating the 175,000 median forecast.

The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. It fell to that level in October 2017, the lowest since December 2000.

The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, as did the employment-population ratio at 60.1%.

Construction added a very solid 36,000 jobs in January, fueled largely by specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Employment in residential building construction continued to trend up over the month (+5,000). Over the year, construction employment has increased by a whopping 226,000.

Worth noting, the U.S. Census Bureau report on construction spending has been very strong over the last year, with significant gains in the latter half of 2017.

Manufacturing also continued to move on an upward trend (+15,000), one that has materialized under the Trump Administration and reversed net losses under the Obama Administration. Durable goods industries added 18,000 jobs. Manufacturing has added 186,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

There is little doubt that we are beginning to experience wage increases, as the U.S. economy begins to create higher-paying jobs outside of the services sector. Wages have now risen to a cyclical high on an annual basis.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.74, which follows an 11-cent gain in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 75 cents, or 2.9%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.34 in January.

“The increase in wages is probably not due (yet) to the tax cut because company announcements of higher bonuses are not captured in the earnings data,” Wall Street economist and CNBC contributor Joseph A. LaVorgna said. “But we will see it in the quarterly employment cost index and compensation per hour figures.”

The government jobs report follows the ADP National Employment Report, which showed the U.S. private sector added 235,000 jobs. The firing rate, measured by the weekly number of first-time applications for jobless/unemployment claims, has fallen to the lowest level since 1972 in recent weeks and continues to hover at historic lows.

The Labor Department via the Bureau of

Politics

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before leaving the White House in Washington, Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, for a trip to Quantico, Va., to attend the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before leaving the White House in Washington, Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, for a trip to Quantico, Va., to attend the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump took to Twitter before the highly-anticipated release of the FISA memo detailing abuses of secret government surveillance programs. He called the FBI rank-in-file agents “great people” but said the top leadership and investigators at the bureau and Justice Department (DOJ) have “politicized the sacred investigative process.”

Trump declassified the memo and transmitted it back to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) with minimal but additional redactions, which the White House added at the request of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows intelligence agencies to collect information on foreign targets abroad. However, it has been “routinely” abused and misused to spy on domestic targets, including President Trump, his associates and other U.S. citizens.

Representative Devin Nunes, R-Calif., the Chairman of the HPSCI, is expected to release the memo on Friday. It purportedly details widespread abuses and specifically names Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, as well as the just ousted FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

This week, Mr. McCabe was “removed” from his post at the FBI amid conflicts of interest and ongoing investigations of misconduct.

President Donald Trump took to Twitter before

Economy

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model forecast for the first quarter (4Q) of 2018 has now soared to 5.4% on February 1, up from 4.2% on January 29. That would be the strongest quarter since the Great Recession ended, beating the 3Q in 2014.

(Correction: A previous version of the article stated 4Q instead of 1Q).

The model overstated the initial 4Q 2017 estimate, which may end up drastically low. But it underestimated growth in the 2Q and 3Q 2017.

While the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported the initial estimate for 4Q gross domestic product (GDP) at an annual rate of 2.6%, it was “based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.”

The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28 and analysts nearly universally expect significant upward revisions.

“There is significant underlying strength in the internals of this report highlighted by consumption at +4% and CapEx spending at +11%,” TJM Investments analyst Tim Anderson said. “Combined with the growth in income, this report is ripe for upward revisions down the road.”

Behind the Revision:

The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent after the ISM report and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for January—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.42 to 1.37 after the ISM report.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model forecast

People's Pundit Daily
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