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Politics

Vice President Mike Pence looks on with President Donald Trump during a meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and other Congressional leaders in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2017, in Washington. (Photo: AP)

Vice President Mike Pence looks on with President Donald Trump during a meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and other Congressional leaders in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2017, in Washington. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump and Republicans appear to have turned the table on Democrats, branding the failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a stop-gap measure the Schumer Shutdown. Since the 1990s. Democrats have successfully assigned blame and responsibility to Republicans in Congress for shutdowns.

But that is no longer the case and it’s not for a lack of trying.

“There’s no one more to blame for the position we find ourselves than President Trump,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on the Senate floor early Saturday before the failed vote. “Instead of bringing us all together, he’s pulled us apart.”

The short-term spending bill, which would have kept the government open until February 16, funded the healthcare of nearly 9 million American children and critical needs of the U.S. military. Democrats oppose the measure because it does not include a provision to grant legal status to at least 800,000 illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).

Estimates put that number as high as 5 million.

Senate Democrats late Thursday announced they have the votes to block a stop-gap bill needed to fund critical programs and to avoid a government shutdown. The slim 51-vote majority in the U.S. Senate is not sufficient to meet a 60-vote threshold, and has blunted the Democrats’ talking points citing Republicans control of the upper and lower chambers.

“Democrats are far more concerned with Illegal Immigrants than they are with our great Military or Safety at our dangerous Southern Border,” President Trump tweeted. “They could have easily made a deal but decided to play Shutdown politics instead. #WeNeedMoreRepublicansIn18 in order to power through mess!”

The argument has been extremely effective. Polling is not looking good for Democrats.

A 56% majority of Americans say approving a budget to avoid a government shutdown was more important than passing a bill to maintain the DACA program. Only about 1 in 3, 34%, said DACA was worth a shutdown. A 57% majority of independents agree with Republicans that avoiding a government shutdown is more important than finding a solution on DACA solution.

Only 34% of independents say a DACA solution is more important.

For more evidence, look no further than the roll call vote. Democrats who voted for the measure are all vulnerable incumbents up for reelection in 2018 from states President Trump won, handily.

Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Alabama Senator Doug Jones, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill joined with all but four Republicans.

“For those asking, the Republicans only have 51 votes in the Senate, and they need 60. That is why we need to win more Republicans in 2018 Election! We can then be even tougher on Crime (and Border), and even better to our Military & Veterans!” he added in a follow up tweet. “Democrats are holding our Military hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration. Can’t let that happen!”

Republicans have long been timid and afraid of shutdown fights in D.C., even when they were the minority themselves. There can be little doubt that the only variable in the shutdown equation that has changed is President Trump. Now, the White House is setting the tone from the top.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty., and House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., have been echoing the message from the White House and the GOP even purchased the domain name SchumerShutdown.com in anticipation of waging a fight.

“Most of the stuff we agree on. One reason we ended up here, the shoehorning of illegal immigration into this debate,” Leader McConnell said after the vote failed.

He said the Senate would resume talks later Saturday to prevent a prolonged shutdown. Vulnerable incumbent Senator Jon Tester, D-Mont., a pretend centrist Republicans believed they could persuade, panicked in the hallway when confronted with his opposition to the measure.

He claimed, though did not name, reasons unrelated to DACA.

“It’s another patch,” Senator Tester said. “I think it’s a bad proposal. I’ll just tell you that. And it has nothing to do with DACA.”

However, a recently leaked memo urged Democrats not to support any funding measure to keep the government open unless they can attach a deal on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). It states that legalizing so-called “Dreamers” is a “critical component” of the party’s “future electoral success.”

“In short, the next few weeks will tell us a lot about the Democratic Party and its long-term electoral prospects.”

Those prospects are currently outweighing the need to fund the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which currently provides coverage to 8,900,074 American children. Funding for CHIP lapsed as of September 30, 2017. The House Republican plan to fund the government includes a six-year extension of the popular program.

Overall, 8 in 10 Americans say it is extremely or very important to fund CHIP.

“Senate Democrats have let down our troops, our children, and all Americans. They will do anything to appease their base, even shut down the federal government,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said in a statement Saturday morning. “There is nothing in this bill to keep the government open that Democrats actually oppose, and yet they are blocking it nonetheless in a dangerous political ploy. All of this is just unnecessary. It is reckless. Senate Democrats have brought us to a shutdown.”

President Donald Trump and Republicans appear to

Polls

Manufacturing workers at the LCI Industries glass components plant in Elkhart, Indiana. (Photo: AP)

Manufacturing workers at the LCI Industries glass components plant in Elkhart, Indiana. (Photo: AP)

With numerous gauges of consumer optimism hitting all-time highs and U.S. companies announcing tax reform-related bonuses, wage increases and other benefits, American workers are more confident than ever that they will get a salary boost in the near future. The percentage of full-time American workers who expect wage increases by the end of the year is now at the highest level ever recorded since tracking began in April 2009.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of American adults who work full-time believe they will be earning more money a year from today, up from 46% in August and the highest percentage ever. That includes 61% of men and 46% of women.

Only 7% believe they will be making less money in a year, while 35% say they will earn about the same amount.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report for the Labor Department, unemployment among black Americans is at the lowest level ever record. Now, 54% of whites, 44% of black Americans and 56% of other minority groups expect wage increases.

Most (56%) full-time American workers continue to believe the best opportunity for career advancement is to stay put.

Meanwhile, The Rasmussen Reports Economic Index rose four points to 132.7 in December, the second highest finding since President Donald Trump took office and in the three years of tracking.

About the Survey

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on January 16-17 by Rasmussen Reports, with a subsample of 576 full-time workers responding to the questions below. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Question Wording

Do you have a better opportunity for career advancement by staying within your current company or by going to work for someone else?

A year from today, will you be earning more money than you earn today, less than today, or about the same amount as you earn today?

The percentage of full-time American workers who

Economy

A shopper passes a ''Sale'' sign at Quincy Market in downtown in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S. January 11, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A shopper passes a ”Sale” sign at Quincy Market in downtown in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S. January 11, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, continued to recede in January although the index “recorded persistent strength” in key areas.

“While the preliminary January reading for the Sentiment Index was largely unchanged from last month (-1.5%), consumers evaluated current economic conditions less favorably (-4.6%),” Richard Curtain, Surveys of Consumers chief economist said. “This small decrease in current conditions produced a small overall decline.”

The Index of Consumer Expectations is up 0.5 to a very healthy 84.4.

“Importantly, the survey recorded persistent strength in personal finances and buying plans, while favorable levels of buying conditions for household durables have receded to preholiday levels in early January, largely due to less attractive pricing. The Expectations Index remained virtually unchanged at 84.8. Tax reform was spontaneously mentioned by 34% of all respondents; 70% of those who mentioned tax reform thought the impact would be positive, and 18% said it would be negative.”

In another positive, inflation expectations are finally beginning to move in the right direction, albeit slowly. Year-ahead expectations are up 1 tenth to 2.8% from final December which matches December’s preliminary reading as the best showing in almost 2 years.

“The disconnect between the future outlook assessment and the largely positive view of the tax reform is due to uncertainties about the delayed impact of the tax reforms on the consumers,” Mr. Curtain also said. “Some of the uncertainty is related to how much a cut or an increase people, especially high income households who live in high-tax states, face.”

Five-year inflation expectations are also up 1 tenth, to 2.5%.

“Near and long term gas price expectations inched upward in early January but remained significantly below their peak,” Mr. Curtain added. “While long term inflation expectation remained at its 2017 average level and short term inflation expectation inched upward, consumers continued to remain very optimistic about the low national unemployment rate.”

The consumer sentiment survey has consistently shown less enthusiasm than the monthly Consumer Confidence Index and the weekly Consumer Comfort Index, both of which remain near 17-year highs.

he Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

Politics

In this March 13, 2017, file photo, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., accompanied by Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer of N.Y., speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Photo: AP)

In this March 13, 2017, file photo, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., accompanied by Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer of N.Y., speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Photo: AP)

Senate Democrats late Thursday announced they have the votes to block a stop-gap bill needed to fund critical programs and to avoid a government shutdown. The short-term spending bill, which would keep the government open until February 16, funds the healthcare of nearly 9 million American children and the U.S. military.

“They continue to hold military funding hostage over unrelated issues and deadlines that don’t exist,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said at a press conference Thursday. “Now they’re threatening to shut down the government altogether because of these unrelated issues. It is unconscionable.”

Democrats oppose the measure because it does not include a provision to grant legal status to the roughly 800,000 illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Vulnerable incumbent Senator Jon Tester, D-Mont., a pretend centrist Republicans believed they could persuade, also signaled he will opposed the measure.

He claimed, though did not name, reasons unrelated to DACA.

“It’s another patch,” Senator Tester told reporters. “I think it’s a bad proposal. I’ll just tell you that. And it has nothing to do with DACA.”

However, a recently leaked memo urged Democrats not to support any funding measure to keep the government open unless they can attach a deal on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). It states that legalizing so-called “Dreamers” is a “critical component” of the party’s “future electoral success.”

“In short, the next few weeks will tell us a lot about the Democratic Party and its long-term electoral prospects.”

Those prospects are currently outweighing the need to fund the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which currently provides coverage to 8,900,074 American children. Funding for CHIP lapsed as of September 30, 2017. The House Republican plan to fund the government includes a six-year extension of the popular program.

President Donald Trump said Thursday “CHIP should be part of a long term solution,” though the White House said he will sign the short-term measure.

“We do support CHIP funding,” Deputy Press Secretary Raj Shah told reporters during President Trump’s trip to Pennsylvania on Thursday afternoon. “The president has been clear he supports CHIP funding. But as a matter of how Congress legislates, if there need to be other items attached to CRs on a routine basis, that’s not good governing and that’s our point of view. We’re very clear that we do support this CR. But as a matter — we would prefer clean continuing resolutions.”

Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., said Senate Democrats are “very unified” in opposition to the bill making its way through the House without Democratic support. Mr. Durbin attempted to craft a DACA solution with outgoing Senator Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., which did not offer adequate border security measures and language dealing with chain migration and the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program.

The president rejected it.

“It’s very close at this point,” Senator Durbin said.

Senate Democrats say they have the votes

Polls

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services headquarters. (Photo: Reuters)

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services headquarters. (Photo: Reuters)

As states weigh measures to reduce usage of Medicaid and food stamps, otherwise known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), more than 6 in 10 Americans say too many are dependent on the government. Americans also continue to believe welfare programs hurt more than they help.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds 61% of  American adults think there are too many Americans dependent on the government, up from 55% in March 2017. The topline includes 63% of whites, 46% of blacks and 63% of other minorities.

That number has run in the mid- to high 60s over the previous four years. On Wednesday, another survey found 64% of Americans support childless, able-bodied adults being required to work as a condition for receiving Medicaid. That included a significant 58% of black Americans, whom Democrats claim to defend and represent.

Meanwhile, just 9% think there are not enough Americans dependent on the government, 18% think the level of dependency is about right and 12% are unsure. Forty-five percent (45%) say current government programs increase the level of poverty in America.

Only 19% feel these programs decrease poverty, while 20% say they have no impact and 16% are undecided.

Belief that these programs actually increase poverty has run as high as 52% in surveys since 2012, but confidence in their effectiveness has changed little.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 14-15, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

As states weigh measures to reduce usage

Economy

A production line employee works at the AMES Companies shovel manufacturing factory in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, U.S. on June 29, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A production line employee works at the AMES Companies shovel manufacturing factory in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, U.S. on June 29, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey declined to a still-strong 22.2 in January, down from a revised reading of 27.9 in December.

New orders, which soared in December more than 8 points to an extraordinarily strong 29.8, fell 18 points. Nearly 36% of the firms reported an increase in new orders in January, while 26% reported declines.

Delivery times and unfilled orders both decreased this month, the latter being negative for the first time in 16 months. The index of delivery times fell to its lowest reading in 10 months.

Current employment, though it remains strong, fell 3 at 16.8, which could signal a lack of available labor due to the skills gap. Still, the percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (24%) was three times greater than the small percentage reporting a decrease (8%).

The average workweek index increased 4 points to 16.7 and has been positive for 16 consecutive months.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook

Economy

New residential homes are shown under construction in Carlsbad, California September 19, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

New residential homes are shown under construction in Carlsbad, California September 19, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

The New Residential Construction report by the U.S. Census Bureau showed housing starts and building permits eased slightly in December after posting extremely strong gains in October and November.

Building Permits

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.9 percent) above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 881,000; this is 1.8 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised November figure of 865,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 382,000 in December.

An estimated 1,263,400 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2017. This is 4.7 percent (±0.6%) above the 2016 figure of 1,206,600.

 

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent (±7.7 percent) below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the December 2016 rate of 1,268,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 836,000; this is 11.8 percent (±6.5 percent) below the revised November figure of 948,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 352,000.

An estimated 1,202,100 housing units were started in 2017. This is 2.4 percent (±2.3%) above the 2016 figure of 1,173,800.

Housing Completions

Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 2.2 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised November estimate of 1,152,000 and is 7.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the December 2016 rate of 1,096,000. Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 818,000; this is 4.3 percent (±20.5 percent)* above the revised November rate of 784,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 346,000.

An estimated 1,152,300 housing units were completed in 2017. This is 8.7 percent (±3.1%) above the 2016 figure of 1,059,700.

The New Residential Construction report by the

Economy

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell 41,000 to 220,000 for the week ending January 13, 2018. That’s the lowest level for jobless claims since February 24, 1973 when it was 218,000.

The previous week was unrevised at 261,000.

The 4-week moving average was 244,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 250,750. Lagging data for continuing claims showed the advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7% during the week ending January 6, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week.

That number is highly likely to return to its historic low following this report. The strengthening demand for labor also bodes extremely well for the government jobs report due out at the end of the month.

Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The claims taking process in Puerto Rico has still not returned to normal. Extended benefits were available in Alaska and the Virgin Island during the week ending December 30.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 30 were in the Virgin Islands (8.1), Alaska (4.0), Puerto Rico (3.5), New Jersey (2.9), Connecticut (2.8), Montana (2.7), Rhode Island (2.6), Massachusetts (2.5), Minnesota (2.5), and Pennsylvania (2.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 6 were in New York (+26,891), Georgia (+11,931), California (+11,927), Pennsylvania (+5,409), and Texas (+5,054), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-8,221), Massachusetts (-4,189), Michigan (-3,151), Ohio (-2,583), and Iowa (-2,156).

The Labor Department said first-time claims for

Markets

The Dow Jones financial electronic ticker is seen at Times Square in New York July 17, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The Dow Jones financial electronic ticker is seen at Times Square in New York July 17, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI) closed above 26,000 for the first time ever and smashed the record for the fastest 1,000-point rally in history. The Blue Chip index hit 26,130.45 before closing up 322.79 points (1.25%) at 26,115.65 on Wednesday.

The new high close at the end of trading came just one day after the Dow breached 26,000 for the first time ever. It took just 8 trading days to race to the next 1,000-point milestone, shattering all previous records.

It closed above 25,000 for the first time in history only minutes into the third trading day of 2018. The rally from 24,000 to 25,000 took just 23 trading days, breaking the previous 24-day record for a 1,000-point rally set in 1999 that took the index to 11,000. That record was matched in March 2017 when it hit 21,000.

In 2017, the Dow Jones notched 71 record closes and soared slightly more than 25.08%. The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) rallied 28.24% on the year and the S&P 500 Index (INDEXCBOE: .INX) ended the year up 19.42%.

On Wednesday, the Nasdaq closed up 74.59 points (1.03%) to 7,298.28, also a new high, while the S&P also hit a new record closing up 26.14 points (0.94%) to 2,802.56.

The late-day market rally came after Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced they will make a $350 billion contribution to the U.S. economy over the next five years and a record tax payment upon repatriation of overseas profits.

Citing changes to the U.S. tax code as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the nation’s largest taxpayer said Wednesday they will bring back approximately $250 billion in overseas cash to the U.S., paying a record $38 billion repatriation tax.

“Apple is a success story that could only have happened in America, and we are proud to build on our long history of support for the US economy,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We have a deep sense of responsibility to give back to our country and the people who help make our success possible.”

In December, President Donald Trump signed the first overhaul to the U.S. tax code in more than 31 years, which slashes the corporate tax rate from the highest in the developed world to 21%. It’s a long-sought policy that data show does boost wages.

Within hours of final passage, U.S. businesses began announcing wage increases, bonuses, investments and other benefits.

While the list continues to grow, by the end of the first week in January no less than 133 companies had announced bonuses, increased wages and other employee benefits for at least 2 million Americans as a result of the president’s tax overhaul.

The entire list can be viewed at Americans for Tax Reform.

Forecast models are now calling for U.S. economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by at least 3% on an annual basis in the 4Q.

In 2016, the U.S. economy grew at just 1.6% on an annual basis, it’s worst performance since 2011. But if the 4Q forecasts are matches or exceeded, it’ll mark the third straight quarter of economic growth at or above 3% since 2004.

Further, if the 4Q for 2017 comes in at the lower end of the regional Federal Reserve forecasts, roughly 3.2%, economic growth during the first year under President Trump will easily exceed the strongest year under Barack Obama.

The PPD GDP Forecast-of-Forecasts, which averages regional and comparable models, currently shows 4Q GDP standing at 3.56%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI)

Companies

People wait in line for the opening of the next generation Apple Store in San Francisco, California, U.S. May 21, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

People wait in line for the opening of the next generation Apple Store in San Francisco, California, U.S. May 21, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced they will make a $350 billion contribution to the U.S. economy over the next five years and a record tax payment upon repatriation of overseas profits.

Citing changes to the U.S. tax code as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the nation’s largest taxpayer said Wednesday they will bring back approximately $250 billion in overseas cash to the U.S., paying a record $38 billion repatriation tax.

“Apple is a success story that could only have happened in America, and we are proud to build on our long history of support for the US economy,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We believe deeply in the power of American ingenuity, and we are focusing our investments in areas where we can have a direct impact on job creation and job preparedness.”

Repatriation and investments in American manufacturing over five years will account for approximately $75 billion of Apple’s direct contribution.

“We have a deep sense of responsibility to give back to our country and the people who help make our success possible,” Mr. Cook added.

In December, President Donald Trump signed the first overhaul to the U.S. tax code in more than 31 years, which slashes the corporate tax rate from the highest in the developed world to 21%. It’s a long-sought policy that data show does boost wages.

Within hours of final passage, U.S. businesses began announcing wage increases, bonuses, investments and other benefits.

While the list continues to grow, by the end of the first week in January no less than 133 companies had announced bonuses, increased wages and other employee benefits for at least 2 million Americans as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The entire list can be viewed at Americans for Tax Reform.

Apple said in the press release it expects to invest over $30 billion in capital expenditures in the U.S. over the next five years and create over 20,000 new jobs through hiring at existing campuses and opening a new one. While they already employ 84,000 people in all 50 states, estimates suggest Apple is responsible for creating and supporting over 2 million jobs across the U.S.

The company said they will announce the location of its new campus facility sometime later in the year, which will initially house technical support for customers. Today, they broke ground on a new facility in downtown Reno, Nevada, which will support its existing facilities in the state. The new campus will also be powered entirely by green energy such as solar, wind and micro-hydro power.

The Advanced Manufacturing Fund announced last spring will be increased from $1 billion to $5 billion. It supports projects with manufacturers located in Kentucky and rural Texas.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced they will

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