Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance retail sales came in at $403.9 billion in April, down 16.4% (± 0.5%) monthly and 21.6% (± 0.7%) year-over-year. That is worse than economists had expected.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -16.9% to a high of -7.0%. The consensus forecast was -11.2%.
Total sales for the February 2020 through April 2020 period declined 7.7% (± 0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February 2020 to March 2020% change was revised from -8.4% (± 0.4%) to -8.3% (± 0.3%).
Retail sales amid the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and economic crisis, symbolized by graph with word “Retail” going down. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Forecasts for retail sales less auto ranged from a low of -13.3% to a high of -3.5%. The consensus forecast was -8.6%. The advance estimate for April came in at -17.2%.
Forecasts for retail sales less auto and gas ranged from a low of -8.6% to a high of -2.5%. The consensus forecast was -7.6%. The advance estimate for April came in at -16.2%.
FBI Seized Burr’s Cellphone While Executing Search Warrant
Senator Richard Burr, R-N.C., the former Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. (Photo: AP/SS)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — Senator Richard Burr, R-N.C., is stepping down as Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee amid an insider trading investigation. He came under fire for stock sales shortly before markets crashed earlier this year.
On February 13, he and his wife sold off shares of companies worth $1.7 million over a large number of trades. Those shares were worth at least $250,000 less at the close of the trading day on March 19.
The selloffs came before the collapse of the markets due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and after he received a secret briefing about the pandemic. Publicly, Senator Burr remarked that the economy was sound, while privately he told others it could be a pandemic akin to the 1918 Spanish Flu.
The U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) announced in March that it would be investigating the allegations. On Wednesday, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) seized Senator Burr’s cell phone while serving a warrant at the his D.C.-area residence.
“Senator Burr contacted me this morning to inform me of his decision to step aside as Chairman of the Intelligence Committee during the pendency of the investigation,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty., said in a statement Thursday.
“We agreed that this decision would be in the best interests of the committee and will be effective at the end of the day tomorrow.”
Under Senator Burr’s chairmanship, the Senate Intelligence Committee undertook what big media and D.C. politicos framed as “the serious investigation” into Russian interference in the 2016 election. The comparison aimed to downplay findings from the more skeptical House Intelligence Committee, led by then-Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif.
While ultimately concluding there was no evidence to support allegations of collusion between members of the Trump Campaign and Russia — the same conclusion reached by the House a year earlier — the committee was not without embarrassment.
James A. Wolfe, the committee’s longtime director of security, pleaded guilty in October 2018 to making false statements to federal agents during the course of an investigation into the unlawful disclosure of classified information.
Put plainly, he selectively leaked classified national security information to The New York Times in a manner designed to politically damage President Trump. The plea deal allowed him to avoid more serious charges involving the leaks.
Senator Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is first in line to lead the Intelligence Committee. But he would have to give up his gavel on the Foreign Relations Committee. He has not responded to requests to comment.
Jobless Claims Worse than Forecast, But Continue Trending Down
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected by 2,981,000 for the week ending May 9, due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised (7,000) level of 3,176,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 2,450,000 to a high of 2,600,000. The consensus forecast was 2,500,000. Roughly 35 million Americans are now out of work as a result of the efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 7,000 from 4,173,500 to 4,180,500.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose again to 15.7% for the week ending May 2, an increase of 0.3%. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 15.5% to 15.4%.
This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the series. However, it was the smallest increase since the start of the crisis.
The first high during the current crisis was recorded at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 2 was 22,833,000, an increase of 456,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 270,000 from 22,647,000 to 22,377,000.
The 4-week moving average was 19,760,000, an increase of 2,729,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 67,500 from 17,097,750 to 17,030,250.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending April 25.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 25 were in California (27.7), Michigan (23.1), Nevada (22.0), Pennsylvania (21.2), Rhode Island (20.6), Georgia (20.2), Vermont (20.0), New York (18.6), Connecticut (18.0), and Washington (18.0).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 2 were in Oklahoma (+41,385), Maryland (+25,318), New Jersey (+16,360), Maine (+8,452), and Puerto Rico (+4,600), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-258,243), Alabama (-45,981), Georgia (-38,213), Washington (-37,289), and Pennsylvania (-33,451).
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On ‘Inside The Numbers’ Episode 29, we wrap up the special elections in California and Wisconsin, unmask Joe Biden and COVID-19 data.
Republican Mike Garcia, a veteran of the U.S. Navy, political newcomer and candidate for California’s 25th Congressional District. (Photo: AdobeStock/Twitter)
Santa Clarita, Calif. (PPD) — Democrat Christy Smith has conceded to Republican Mike Garcia in the special election for California’s 25th Congressional District. The contest was to fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., who resigned in disgrace amid a sex scandal involving her staffers.
Candidate
Party
Votes
Percent
Mike Garcia
Republican
80,337
56.0%
Christy Smith
Democrat
62,998
44.0
143,335 votes, 314 of 411 precincts reporting
“While it’s critical that we ensure every vote is counted and recorded, we believe that the current tally shows Mike Garcia is the likely victor in the May 12 special election,” State Rep. Smith said in a statement. “As such, I’d like to congratulate him.”
Hillary Clinton carried the district by 6 points in 2016 and Ms. Hill carried it by 9 points in 2018. Mr. Garcia, a graduate of Annapolis and veteran aviator-turned-contractor, currently leads with 56% of the vote and 76% reporting.
“After seeing more results last night, it is clear that our message of lower taxes and ensuring we don’t take Sacramento dysfunction to Washington prevailed,” Congressman-apparent Garcia said in a statement. “I’m ready to get to work right away for the citizens of the 25th Congressional District.”
The victory for Republicans represents the first flip from Blue to Red in more than two decades. In her statement, State Rep. Smith made clear she intends to return for a rematch in November.
“That said, this is only one step in this process, and I look forward to having a vigorous debate about the issues in the upcoming November 2020 election, from healthcare access to job creation, aid for working families, investments in local classrooms to wildfire protection, women’s rights and more in the months ahead,” she added.
Meanwhile, Republican Melissa Melendez also defeated Democrat Elizabeth Romero in the special election for California Senate District 28. This contest was to fill the vacancy left by Republican Jeff Stone, who resigned last year to take a position at the U.S. Labor Department.
Republican Tom Tiffany easily defeated Tricia Zunker in the special election for Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District (WI-7). This contest was to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., who resigned for family reasons.
Declassified List of Names James Clapper, John Brennan and Obama’s Chief of Staff Denis McDonough
National Security Adviser Michael Flynn puts Iran ‘on notice’ during a press conference in response to a missile launch. (Photo: AP)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — A declassified list of Obama Administration officials who sought to unmask Michael Flynn include former Vice President Joe Biden and White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough. The full list was first reported by CBS News reporter Catherine Herridge.
The list also names the former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Brennan, former DNI James Clapper, the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Samantha Powers and fired former Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey.
“On 8 May 2020 I declassified the enclosed document, which I am providing to you for your situational awareness,” Acting DNI Ric Grenell wrote to Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Senator Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., on May 13. The former is the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and the latter the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee.
General Paul M. Nakasone, the Director of the National Security Agency (NSA), wrote in a memorandum to Mr. Grenell that the “revised list” contains the names of officials who submitted requests to the NSA from November 8, 2016 to January 31, 2017, “to unmask the identity of former National Security Adviser, Lieutenant General Michael T. Flynn (USA-Ret.).”
“The original list was in alphabetical order; the revised list is in chronological order, including the date the request was received.”
Andrew Bates, rapid response for the Biden campaign, flipped out on Twitter following the release of the documents. He attacked Ms. Herridge, who is not at all viewed as a partisan” or “rightwing hack”.
The U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) dropped its case against Lt. General Flynn after “newly discovered and disclosed information”. On January 24, 2017, federal agents interviewed Lt. General Flynn under false pretenses and without counsel about a conversation he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
At the time of the conversation, Lt. General Flynn was the top foreign policy adviser to then-President-elect Donald Trump. Handwritten notes in the documents show the “goal” was to “get [Flynn] to admit breaking the Logan Act,” a 1799 law widely viewed as unconstitutional. It has never been successfully used in a prosecution against anyone, ever.
The declassified list suggests Mr. Biden was not being truthful last week when asked about his knowledge of the now-disgraced investigation. In an interview with George Stephanopoulos on Good Morning America, he denied knowingly anything about it.
“I know nothing about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn,” Mr. Biden claimed.
Of note regarding the list are both the sheer number of unmasking requests submitted to NSA and the dates those requests were made.
The request from Mr. Biden on January 12, 2017, was made the same day David Ignatious revealed content of the leaked transcripts in The Washington Post. The request by Chief of Staff McDonough was made on January 5, 2017, also the same day of the now-infamous meeting with Mr. Obama, himself, memorialized in an email by Susan Rice.
Susan Rice email dated January 20, 2017, memorializing a White House meeting with Barack Obama, Joe Biden, James Comey and Sally Yates on January 5, 2017.
On September 8, 2017, Susan Rice admitted under oath before the House Intelligence Committee that there was no “intelligence” or “evidence” of “collusion” or “conspiracy”.
“I don’t recall intelligence that I would consider evidence to that effect that I saw prior — of conspiracy prior to my departure,” she conceded under questioning from former Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C. “I don’t recall intelligence or evidence to that effect.”
When asked to clarify what cause they had to suspect they could not “share information fully as it relates to Russia,” she said Lt. General Flynn viewed it as a declining power and China as the greater threat.
“The Senate must immediately hold hearings on this!” Senator Rand Paul, R-Kty., tweeted after the release of the list. “Clapper, Comey, Brennan and even Biden owe it to the American people. They should testify under oath. What did the former president know?”
The Senate must immediately hold hearings on this! Clapper, Comey, Brennan and even Biden owe it to the American people. They should testify under oath. What did the former president know?
Melendez, Staunch Trump Supporter, Solidly Leads Democrat Elizabeth Romero By 12 Points
Melissa Melendez, Republican representing the 67th Assembly District and candidate for Senate District 28. (Photo: AdobeStock/Twitter)
Riverside, Calif. (PPD) — Republican Melissa Melendez has defeated Democrat Elizabeth Romero in the special election for California Senate District 28. This contest was to fill the vacancy left by Republican Jeff Stone, who resigned last year to take a position at the U.S. Labor Department.
Ms. Melendez is leading 56% to 44% among the 170,000 votes cast in the Riverside County district, which includes the Coachella Valley. In 2016, President Donald Trump barely won it by a margin less than 2%.
A veteran of the U.S. Navy, Ms. Melendez has represented the 67th Assembly District since 2012. She’s been a staunch supporter of President Trump and sat next to him at the White House in 2018 during a meeting on sanctuary cities.
“The California Republican Comeback is in full swing. A US Navy veteran and businesswoman, Melendez is the perfect voice to represent the constituents of Senate District 28 – and take the fight to the Democrats and their policies that have failed Californians,” the California Republican Party tweeted after 70-plus percent reported results.
"The California Republican Comeback is in full swing. A US Navy veteran and businesswoman, Melendez is the perfect voice to represent the constituents of Senate District 28 – and take the fight to the Democrats and their policies that have failed Californians."
Worth noting, Republican Mike Garcia also currently leads Democrat Christy Smith by 12 points in the special election for California’s 25th Congressional District (CA-25). It’s the first flip from Blue to Red in California in more than two decades.
That contest was to fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., who resigned in disgrace amid a sex scandal involving her staffers.
Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background – California. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Santa Clarita, Calif. (PPD) — Republican Mike Garcia leads Democrat Christy Smith by 12 points in the special election for California’s 25th Congressional District (CA-25). This contest was to fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., who resigned in disgrace amid a sex scandal involving her staffers.
Mr. Garcia, a graduate of Annapolis and veteran aviator-turned-contractor, leads with 56% of the vote with 76% reporting. State Rep. Smith, a former school board member and longtime local official, trails with 44% of the vote.
County
Garcia
Smith
Reporting
Los Angeles
58,993
47,381
79%
Ventura
20,550
15,075
61
141,999 votes, 314 of 411 precincts reporting
At time of writing, the percentage of vote reported ticked higher from 73% to 76%. It did not tighten the margin, though it is expected to tighten as late, harvested and provisional ballots historically lean heavily Democratic.
Republican Melissa Melendez is also leading 56% to 44% in the election for California Senate District 28. CA-SD-28 is largely Riverside. If the leads hold for Republicans in these two races and the , they’ll boast a flip.
Meanwhile, Republican Tom Tiffany easily defeated Tricia Zunker in the special election for Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District (WI-7). This contest was to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., who resigned for family reasons.
Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background – Wisconsin. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Eau Claire, Wis. (PPD) — Republican Tom Tiffany easily defeated Tricia Zunker in the special election Tuesday for Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District (WI-7). This contest was to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., who resigned for family reasons.
Congressman-elect Tiffany, a state senator from Hazelhurst, won 57.2% of the vote against Tricia Zunker, a school board official from Wausau, who took just 42.8%. The outsized win was large even for the district.
Candidate
Party
Votes
Percent
Tom Tiffany
Republican
109,594
57.2%
Tricia Zunker
Democrat
81,955
42.8
191,549 votes, 675 of 675 precincts reporting
WI-7, which encompasses the North to Northwestern region of the state, is about as rural as they come. Wausau is the largest population city in the district, which is still R+8 overall.
The great people of #WI07 have chosen wisely once again! Congrats to @TomTiffanyWI on running an outstanding race from start to finish. I know Tom will work tirelessly on behalf of his constituents and will be a great addition to the House GOP Conference for years to come. 🇺🇸
Ms. Zunker carried only the Democratic stronghold counties of Douglas (60/40), Bayfield (63/37) and Ashland (62/38). The once-home to the progressive labor movement, which includes bleeding from exurbs belonging to the Twin Cities, still boasts that working heritage.
However, Republicans have made large inroads in the district since 2010. That trend has been exacerbated under Donald Trump, the “blue collar billionaire”. The president’s working class platform has transformed much of the party from one for the rich to one for Main Street.
Now, the district has shifted to the point a largely traditional Republican candidate like Congressman-elect Tiffany can cruise to victory.
Meanwhile, Mike Garcia leads Democrat Christy Smith by 12 points in the special election for California’s 25th Congressional District (CA-25). This contest was to fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., who resigned in disgrace amid a sex scandal involving her staffers.
Wisconsin’s Seventh District (WI-7) Results By County
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On ‘Inside The Numbers’ Episode 28, we discuss the special election results in CA-25 and WI-7, and the collapse of collusion.
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