Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell another 5.5 points to 90.9 in April. While small business owners think the economy will improve over the next six months, they expect weakening in the near-term.
The index has fallen 13.6 points over the last two months. In March, optimism fell 8.1 points, the largest drop in the 46-year history of the survey.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 79.8 to a high of 96.4. The consensus forecast was 90.9. Nine of 10 Index components declined in April, while just one improved.
“The impact from this pandemic, including government stay-at-home orders and mandated non-essential business closures has had a devastating impact on the small business economy,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “Owners are starting to benefit from the PPP and EIDL small business loan programs as they try to reopen and keep employees on staff.”
Small business closed business due to the lockdowns to mitigate the spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19). An unidentified person wearing a mask hangs a closed sign on the front door. (Photo: AdobeStock)
“Small business owners need more flexibility, though, in using the PPP loan to support business operations and liability protection so that all these efforts to support small businesses are not ultimately lost in costly litigation.”
The NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 17 points in March to 75. The reports of small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months shot up 24 points, recovering all of a 17-point decline in March.
Hiring plans — or, the net percent (“increase” minus “decrease”) in the next three months, seasonally adjusted — fell from 9 to 1.
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On ‘Inside The Numbers’ Episode 27, we discuss the special elections in CA-25 and WI-7, and the unmasking of Michael Flynn.
Entities Boast More than $255 Million Cash on Hand, Far Outpacing Obama Re-election
President Donald J. Trump speaks to young conservative activists at CPAC 2020 in National Harbor, Maryland on February 29, 2020. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)
The Republican National Committee (RNC) and campaign committees to re-elect President Donald J. Trump raised over $61.7 million in April and boast $255 million cash on hand. The self-reported haul brings the total to $742 million cycle-to-date.
That’s $288 million more than the effort to re-elect Barack Obama at the same point in the cycle back in 2012. The RNC has consistently out-raised their counterparts at the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
“While day-to-day life may have slowed this past month, enthusiasm and support for this President has not,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, said. “With their time, resources, and ultimately their vote, Americans across this country continue to put their faith in President Trump.”
The committees jointly raised more than $212 million in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. That’s $56 million — and 36% — more than their fundraising haul in Q4 2019. At that period, it was $270 million more than the effort to re-elect Mr. Obama.
“Once again the Trump campaign’s colossal fundraising haul reaffirms that President Trump will lead an unstoppable juggernaut this November,” Brad Parscale, the president’s campaign manager, said.
“While the do-nothing Democrats have recklessly held up funds for our nation’s small businesses and played political games with the lives of the American people, President Trump’s consistent record of unprecedented action is met with overwhelming enthusiasm and support.”
These record-breaking fundraising hauls are being used to build and man the largest field program and data operation in the party’s history. It very well could be the largest in history for either party.
The efforts consists of over one million trained, active volunteers. In the wake of mitigation efforts allegedly aimed to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), the joint campaign-committee transitioned to virtual, dubbed Trump Victory. Since inception, it added more than 300,000 new volunteers and made over 20 million voter contacts.
Meanwhile, Democrats have attempted to use the COVID-19 crisis to “reform” elections, advocating for more fraud-prone voting vehicles. The RNC and campaign committees have doubled the budget to fight this effort to $20 million.
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.8% in April, the largest monthly decline since December 2008. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.3% not seasonally adjusted.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -0.9% to a high of -0.5%. The consensus forecast was -0.8%.
The largest contributor to the monthly decline in the seasonally adjusted all items CPI was a 20.6% drop in the gasoline index. Still, the indexes for apparel, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and lodging all fell significantly, as well.
In contrast and unsurprisingly, food indexes rose sharply in April. The index for food at home posted its largest monthly increase since February 1974. The food index gained 3.5% over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since February 2012.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The energy index declined mostly due to the decrease in the gasoline index, though some components in energy rose. The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.4% in April, the largest monthly decline in the history of the series dating back to 1957.
Meanwhile, the cost of living in other noteworthy areas continued to rise. The indexes for rent, owners’ equivalent rent, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April.
The all items index rose 0.3% for the 12 months ending April, which is the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The index for all items less food and energy gained 1.4% over the last 12 months, the smallest increase since April 2011. The energy index fell 17.7% over the last year.
A flag of the state of Florida waving in the wind with a positive coronavirus (COVID-19) blood test tube. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gainesville, Fla. (PPD) — Florida counties in Phase One reported their lowest positivity rate for coronavirus (COVID-19) on Sunday. Governor Ron DeSantis, R-Fla, touted the results on Monday amid his efforts to reopen the state.
“Yesterday yielded 187 new cases in Phase 1 counties with a positivity rate of 1.43%,” he tweeted. “The positivity rate has ranged between 1.43% and 4.2% over the past 2 weeks for our Phase 1 counties and has noticeably declined in the past week.”
On April 16, the White House unveiled a three-phase plan for “Opening Up America Again”, a set of guidelines to loosen restrictions aimed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. It allows states and localities to protect the vulnerable and target more impacted regions while preventing a complete collapse of the U.S. economy.
Of the state’s 67 counties, only Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are not in Phase One. The remaining 64 counties are home to roughly 16 million Floridians.
Governor DeSantis took a more measured approach than many other executives, who took a more blanket draconian approach. Critics have slammed him for not taking more action, though the data suggest that would’ve been an overreaction.
Only 206 COVID-19 patients in Phase One counties are in the ICU (.001%) and 105 patients are on ventilators (.0007%).
White House Touts COVID-19 Testing Advancements and Capabilities
Researcher holds test tube with coronavirus virus (COVID-19), analysis and medicine to fight the epidemic. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — On Monday, the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) tests conducted in the U.S. will exceed 9 million, more than twice South Korea on a per capita basis.
Global public health officials and administration critics characterized South Korea as the gold standard in COVID-19 testing and overall pandemic response. The former was thought to largely dictate the success of the latter.
“No other country in the world comes close to the numbers,” Assistant Secretary for Health Admiral Brett Giroir said during a press conference at the White House. “Everyone talks about South Korea being the standard. Today we will have done more than twice the per capita rate of testing that was accomplished in South Korea.”
“No matter how you look at it, America is leading the world in testing.”
South Korea conducted 663,886 COVID-19 tests as of Monday. As of 2018, the population of was roughly 51.64 million. That compares to 328.2 million in the U.S. as of 2019.
Watch Live 11:00 AM EST (PPD) — On ‘Inside The Numbers’ Episode 26, we discuss the collateral damage resulting from not following sound data in crisis.
Jobs Lost in March Revised Down by 169,000 from -701,000 to -870,000
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the U.S. economy lost 20.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 in April. The historic losses in jobs and increase in rate are due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
As bad as those numbers are, they both beat their respective consensus forecasts. Nevertheless, this is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the unemployment rate series.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) and jobs, symbolized by the coronavirus virus destroying word jobs to picture that the virus affects employment and jobs. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Forecasts for job losses ranged from a low of 30,000,000 to a high of 8,600,000. The consensus was for a loss of 21,500,000. Forecasts for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 12.3% to a high of 18.9%. The consensus forecast was 16.4%.
The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff increased ten-fold to 18.1 million. The number of permanent job losers rose by 544,000 to 2.0 million.
The labor force participation rate fell by 2.5 percentage points over the month to 60.2%. That’s the lowest rate since January 1973, when it was just 60.0%. The labor force participation rate has risen and held above the critical 63% threshold under the Trump Administration after struggling in the prior.
The equally-important but less cited employment-population ratio, at 51.3%, fell by 8.7 percentage points. That is the lowest rate and largest month-over-month decline in the history of the series.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 from +275,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 from -701,000 to -870,000.
The U-6 unemployment rate — an alternative measure of labor underutilization, seasonally adjusted — rose from 8.7% in March to 22.8 in April. That’s the highest level ever measured for this series.
U-6 gauges total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected by 3,169,000 for the week ending May 2. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose again to 15.5% for the week ending April 25, the highest level in the history of the series.
National Security Adviser Michael Flynn puts Iran ‘on notice’ during a press conference in response to a missile launch. (Photo: AP)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) dropped its case against former National Security Adviser Lt. General Michael Flynn. The development comes after “newly discovered and disclosed information” in the form of newly unsealed documents of internal memos.
The evidence raised serious questions about the nature of the investigation, which began at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and inevitably led to the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
U.S. Attorney Jeff Jensen recommended dropping the case after review. A federal judge will have to sign off, but events are moving quickly.
“Through the course of my review of General Flynn’s case, I concluded the proper and just course was to dismiss the case,” Mr. Jensen stated. “I briefed Attorney General Barr on my findings, advised him on these conclusions, and he agreed.”
The two trances of documents totaling 15 pages were unsealed by U.S. District Court Judge Emmet G. Sullivan. The first four unsealed pages contained clear evidence the investigation and prosecution — code name “Crossfire Razor” — was a setup for a perjury trap.
The documents — inappropriately withheld from the defense — contained handwritten notes. While not initially revealed, multiple sources now identify the note-taker as Bill Priestap, then-Assistant Director of the Counterintelligence Division. Those notes state agents investigating Lt. Gen. Flynn aimed “to get him to lie so we can prosecute him or get him fired.”
On January 24, 2017, federal agents interviewed Lt. General Flynn under false pretenses and without counsel about a conversation he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. At the time of the conversation, Lt. General Flynn was the top foreign policy adviser to then-President-elect Donald Trump.
The note-taker wrote that one objective of the interview was to “get [Flynn] to admit breaking the Logan Act,” a 1799 law widely viewed as unconstitutional.
The law intends to prohibit private citizens from speaking with foreign governments about official U.S. policy. It has never been successfully used in a prosecution against anyone, ever.
“I have been a criminal defense attorney for decades. I have seen abusive tactics. However this is one of the most thuggish records I have seen,” famed liberal attorney Jonathan Turley said after reviewing the documents. “Most concerning is that they were trying to create a crime, not investigating a crime.”
“The use of Logan only highlights that bias.”
The agents who conducted the interview initially stated they believed he told them the truth. However, Special Counsel Robert Mueller still charged Lt. General Flynn with “willfully and knowingly” making false statements to federal investigators in late 2017.
Newly unsealed documents contain text messages that refer to the original FBI 302 interview, which was never turned over to the defense. In those text messages, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok discuss the interview conducted at the White House.
They even insinuate the document was altered. In sum, the evidence also provides the most clearest evidence the Russia investigation was a persecution aimed at the president.
Mr. Strzok was fired from the FBI and his extramarital lover Ms. Page resigned in disgrace alongside Jim Baker, who is now cooperating with authorities, according to multiple sources and reports.
An email from Mr. Strzok to Mr. Priestap dated January 21, 2017, which was sent only days before the ambush interview with Lt. General Flynn, details how a defensive briefing for an incoming president was used to spy on the advisor and members of the campaign.
Disgraced and fired former FBI director James Comey would later brag about using a defense briefing to spy on the incoming president’s team during an interview on December 9, 2018.
Special Prosecutor Mueller and his team — composed of Democrats and Democratic supporters with a long history of prosecutorial misconduct — leaned on Lt. General Flynn to accept a plea deal. That included threatening his son with prosecution.
Brandon Van Grack — who was hired by Mr. Mueller, threatened his son and withheld evidence — was removed from the case.
In December 2017, Lt. General Flynn was forced to put his home in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia located just outside Washington D.C. According to Zillow, the townhouse sold for $819,995 in September 2018, far below the asking price of $895,000 and insufficient to pay mounting legal bills.
Covington & Burling, the law firm who initially defended Lt. Gen. Flynn, was paid roughly $3.5 million. Last year, it was reported that he had more than $4.6 million in unpaid legal bills at that time.
Lt. Gen. Flynn, the former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) under Barack Obama, hired Sidney Powell and withdrew his initial plea. Ms. Powell is a defense lawyer known for fighting corruption and prosecutorial misconduct at the DOJ.
“The Obama Justice Department did some very bad things. They got caught,” President Trump said in response. “It’s a disgrace. It’s treason.”
In May, Attorney General William Barr assigned U.S. Attorney John H. Durham in Connecticut to investigate the origins of and potential wrongdoings in the Russia probe.
In October, he expanded that investigation from the genesis of the probe through the election, the post-election timeline through the spring of 2017, up to when Robert Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by then-Acting Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
On April 9, Attorney General Barr said in an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News that the evidence shows “we’re not just dealing with mistakes and sloppiness,” adding it was a travesty of historic proportions intended to sabotage the presidency.
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