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Vladimir Lenin rallies a huge crowd of supporters before storming the Winter Palace during the Bolshevik Revolution.

Vladimir Lenin rallies a huge crowd of supporters before storming the Winter Palace during the Bolshevik Revolution.

This day 100 years ago a thousand-year old political entity known as Russia ceased to exist. This entity was spread over an area greater than one sixth of the entire landmass of our planet and was among the top five powers in the world. So what happened? This question is hotly debated as we speak in the pale simulacrum of early 20th century Russian Empire – today’s Russian Federation. Allow me to proffer my answer, which is rather simple: in 1917 Russian elites stopped believing in old Russia’s “elevator pitch”, the one or two sentences that define a nation.

The fundamental bedrock upon which each nation rests and on which ALL members of the nation can agree. In Russia, it was vera pravoslavnaya, vlast’ samoderzhavnaya (Russian Orthodox Christian Faith, absolute monarchy rule).

Prior to February, 1917 this short saying defined Russia for ten centuries. And then, all of a sudden, it didn’t. As a result, Russia forever lost its soul, its identity, tens of millions of its citizens, and its place in the world.

Sure, for a couple of decades the USSR pretended to be a world power, but it was nothing but a scaled up North Korea, a massive prison camp armed with nuclear-tipped ICBM’s. Today, the Russian Federation, still bereft of the immense cultural heritage that was lost a hundred years ago, is trying to build for itself a place on world stage by the pathetically ruthless deployment of its relatively small and mostly outdated armed forces in support of dictators like Bashar Al-Assad. It is safe to say that there will be no more Tchaikovsky’s, no more Rachmaninoff’s, no more Pushkin’s or Dostoyevsky’s or Tolstoy’s.

Why?

Simply because all of these geniuses didn’t just appear deus ex machina, they were the product of ten centuries of rich spiritual tradition steeped in the Russian Orthodox Church and the traditions of Russian nobility. Those traditions were purposefully, ruthlessly, and gleefully demolished by the Bolsheviks, a cadre of criminals, rogue communist ideologues, traitors, and mountebanks, who were as hungry for revenge against what we would today call “The Man” as they were for actually wielding power.

It is crucial to keep in mind that the October 1917 coup d’état (even Stalin called it by that name rather than “revolution” until the end of WWII), came on the heels of the betrayal of Tsar Nicholas II by his own retinue comprised entirely of ethnically Russian, Christian Orthodox, hereditary nobility. It was that betrayal by its own native elites that doomed Russia, not opportunistic Jewish lawyers like Trotsky, radicalized students like Lenin, or charismatic power-seeking megalomaniacs like Stalin.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill attend a meeting with Russian Orthodox church bishops in Moscow February 1, 2013, in this picture provided by Ria Novosti. (Photo: Reuters)

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) and Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill attend a meeting with Russian Orthodox church bishops in Moscow February 1, 2013, in this picture provided by Ria Novosti. (Photo: Reuters)

The betrayal was a long time in the making; both Nicholas’s father and grandfather experienced assassination attempts, fatal for the former, nearly so for the latter. The groups responsible for these attempts were comprised of intelligentsia and hereditary nobility, not Stalin-like dregs of society. It was as if a significant portion of Russia’s elites stopped loving her and a small minority began to actively hate her and wish for her destruction; once that process reached its inevitable conclusion when Nicholas II was forced to abdicate in a railroad car on his way back from the front to St. Petersburg, Russia was lost.

The Bolsheviks only delivered the coup de grace.

The “elevator pitch” that justifies a nation’s claim to remaining a nation is only important in times of stress. Canada, for example, does not have one. It is simply not important to define what it means to be Canadian because Canada is blessed with a peaceful border and plentiful land. The extreme opposite example is Israel, a country whose existence is forcefully challenged every day since its very beginning.

Israel is a study in diversity; even among the Jewish population, an Ashkenazi Jew working for Intel in Haifa’s high technology zone, which is among the biggest in the world, has hardly anything in common with the Yemenite Jew raising dairy cattle on a farm in the Galilee, or the Ethiopian Jew struggling with making a living in a small town on the periphery. And yet, the vast majority of Israeli Jews agree that they are the direct descendants of Judeans who were the native dwellers of Judea (renamed by the Romans to Palestina after the failed Jewish revolt of 70 AD) and whose presence in Israel is not derived from any declarations or UN actions, but rather it is the same right that any people has to its ancestral homeland. Should this belief, God forbid, ever stop being the belief of the majority of Israeli Jews, Israel will cease to exist. As to the 20% of Israeli citizens who are not Jewish? Well, their opinion simply does not count.

America, due to its size and venturesome spirit has always been under a certain amount of stress. Wars have always been a fixture of American history. What then is America’s elevator pitch? The answer of course is in the words of the Declaration of Independence: We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

Implied, is the belief in a Creator, a supra-natural force, from whom, rather than from any act of man, these unalienable rights stem. It is this belief in the inalienability of their rights to live, be free, and accumulate wealth that gave Americans their extraordinary venturesome spirit, which in turn made America into what it is today. When the British colony of Nova Scotia chose not to join the thirteen colonies in rebellion against the Crown, little did it know that 230 year later it would be a sleepy backwater compared to the colony of Massachusetts, which back them was neither much more populous nor much more prosperous. Little could it imagine that Boston would become a three million strong world-class city and Halifax remain a charming town of three hundred thousand.

The-First-Thanksgiving-

The First Thanksgiving 1621, oil on canvas by Jean Leon Gerome Ferris (1899).

But what created such an unequal outcome from such similar initial conditions? After all, 18th century Nova Scotians were the same British origin people as the citizens of Massachusetts. In fact, many of the residents of these two colonies were related and Massachusetts was Nova Scotia’s largest trading partner. Geographically and climatologically as well, the two places are strikingly similar.

The difference, of course, lies in the fact that after 1776 Massachusettsians became free citizens, in charge of their destiny and their own government, whose unalienable rights were protected by the constitution. Nova Scotians, in contrast, were and still are the subjects of the British Crown from whom all of their rights derive, to be granted or to be taken away.

In practical terms, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution gave Americans social mobility, the chance to risk their capital and their lives in order to punch a ticket to potential success, while the lack of such a document in Nova Scotia meant that if you were born poor, you would stay that way no matter what, because that’s just how things are.

Today, America is at a crossroads. Its “elevator pitch”, the one that talks about a Creator and about the right to pursue, rather than receive, happiness seems to no longer be self-evident to many Americans and hateful to many more. While America did not experience a coup d’état in 1917, the foul winds of statist ideologies like communism and its equally evil twin fascism did not fail to find their way to its shores. For the last 100 years Americans have been surrendering their freedom to succeed and to fail in exchange for a social safety net.

A vicious cycle of ever higher taxes on income and consumption at all levels of government left Americans poorer and as they became poorer they became more dependent on government services when times were tough. The fact that an electorate dependent on government assistance is much easier to control than an electorate of truly independent voters did not escape the notice of unscrupulous politicians who proceeded to take full advantage of it.

The America of today, with its unionized education and active wealth redistribution via punitive taxation, with its abuse of the Commerce Clause to all but eviscerate state rights and transfer all power to the federal government would be utterly unrecognizable to Americans who fought for their states in the Civil War.

Now, it appears we are witnessing the final fork in the road. Will America become a European style democracy, in fact nothing but a statist dictatorship in which easily manipulated majorities elect parliaments that rule roughshod over a cowed citizenry; a place from which the Creator had long since been banished and no rights are unalienable by a majority of one in the House of Parliament, or will America come to its senses and remain a place, in fact the only place, in which no one is sovereign but God.

This day 100 years ago a thousand-year

Stephen Willeford, right, hugs Johnnie Langendorff during a vigil for the victims of the First Baptist Church shooting Monday, Nov. 6, 2017, in Sutherland Springs, Texas. Willeford shot suspect Devin Patrick Kelley and Langendorff drove the truck while they chased Kelley. Kelley opened fire inside the church in the small South Texas community on Sunday, killing more than two dozen and injuring others. (Photo: AP)

Stephen Willeford, right, hugs Johnnie Langendorff during a vigil for the victims of the First Baptist Church shooting Monday, Nov. 6, 2017, in Sutherland Springs, Texas. Willeford shot suspect Devin Patrick Kelley and Langendorff drove the truck while they chased Kelley. Kelley opened fire inside the church in the small South Texas community on Sunday, killing more than two dozen and injuring others. (Photo: AP)

It’s impossible to imagine the evil and/or the sickness that would lead a person to massacre strangers in a church. But it’s very easy to predict the political aftermath of such a tragedy. Folks on the left immediately urge more gun control.

I have constitutional objections to their approach, but I realize that line of reasoning doesn’t matter to the anti-Second Amendment crowd. So, I generally focus the conversation on the practical shortcomings of such initiatives.

  • Why, for instance, will it make a difference to ban scary-looking rifles when other weapons have the exact same functionality?
  • Or if they want a total ban, I ask them if they have a feasible plan to confiscate the hundreds of millions of guns in the country?
  • Do they actually think signs declaring so-called gun-free zones will discourage or deter murderers from butchering innocent people?
  • Is it likely that criminals will obey gun control laws when they already disregard laws against murder, rape, robbery, and assault?
  • If they argue guns cause crime, what is their response to the link between expanded gun ownership or decreases in violent crime?

Let’s focus on that last point, which is especially relevant since the death toll in Texas presumably would have been much higher if a good person with a gun didn’t put a stop to the mayhem.

Here are some excerpts from the Washington Post‘s report on what happened.

Johnnie Langendorff stumbled into the crossfire in a total accident. …As he passed the church…he saw…A man clad all in black was…trading shots with another man holding a rifle. …The man in black hauled off in his SUV. The second man with the rifle — a neighbor identified Monday by Arkansas-based 40/29 News as Stephen Willeford — approached Langendorff. The two men were strangers. Willeford said his daughter heard gunshots at the nearby First Baptist Church and told him she’d seen a man in all-black attire… A former NRA instructor…, Willeford immediately sprung into action. …Willeford raced across the street to the church and confronted Kelley… Langendorff said Willeford “briefed me quickly on what had just happened and said he had to get him.” “So that’s what I did.” …the two men shot off in pursuit in Langendorff’s truck… Langendorff wove his truck at high speed through traffic while trying to catch the fleeing SUV. The speedometer crossed 95 mph while the driver narrated everything to law enforcement. …Kelley’s vehicle…veered off the roadway and into a ditch… Langendorff pulled his own truck within 25 yards. …Police were on the scene within five to seven minutes… An autopsy of Kelley showed that he was shot twice — once in the leg and again in the torso — before shooting himself in the head… On Sunday night, Langendorff explained that his reaction — jumping into a car chase — was a simple calculation. “He just hurt so many people, he affected so many people’s lives, why wouldn’t you want to take him down?”

The Wall Street Journal editorializes on some of the implications.

…forgive us if we focus on Stephen Willeford, the local plumber who saved lives by grabbing his rifle and firing at Kelley. …The two locals are being hailed as heroes since their quick action was the only deterrent to more murders until police arrived. Kelley, who was discharged from the Air Force for bad conduct, should not have been able to obtain a gun legally, but the Journal reports that the military failed to send his conviction record to the FBI. The harsh reality of mass murders is that often only the presence of someone with a legal weapon to shoot back can stop the rampage. …No one wants crowds of vigilantes looking for someone to shoot, but we’re sure glad Stephen Willeford had a rifle and knew how to use it.

Rich Lowry of National Review applauds the heroism of the two Texans who acted to save lives.

Before the Texas church shooter encountered any police officers, he was run off a highway and dead. He had been shot and chased by two private citizens who took it upon themselves to respond to a heinous crime when no one with a badge was anywhere to be found. …The response by the two bystanders who refused to stand by…was a characteristically small-town American act of self-reliance that shows, no matter how tattered our civil society may be, it still produces people who will risk life and limb for others without hesitation, unbidden by anything other than their own sense of obligation. When Stephen Willeford, 55, heard of the shooting, he left his house barefoot with his AR-15 and started exchanging fire with Kelley outside the church. An expert shot, Willeford hit Kelley and reportedly aimed for the gaps on his body armor. When Kelley got in an SUV and sped off, Willeford jumped in Johnnie Langendorff’s truck and told him to give chase. …Willeford and Langendorff would have been justified in considering their work done when the shooter left the scene of his massacre. They would have been justified in considering it done when he crashed his vehicle. They instead were prepared for another gunfight in the cause of incapacitating him themselves.

And he warns about the real-world implications of gun control.

Any gun-control measure that is sweeping enough to make a dent in the country’s gun stock and render gun ownership difficult enough to, at the margins, keep firearms out of the hands of psychopaths will inevitably affect law-abiding people as well. In places like rural Texas that would rightly be considered a serious imposition. Without a gun, if something goes wrong, the only option is sitting and waiting for the authorities to show up.

Amen. Cops play an important role, but usually after a crime is committed. When seconds count, the police are minutes away.

So let’s make life harder for bad people by letting good people defend themselves.

By the way, some people are blaming the Air Force for failing to place the murderer into the system since that would have barred him from legally buying a gun. I’m sure that was an oversight rather than a deliberate decision, so I’m reluctant to make that a big issue. I’m actually more concerned that this dirtbag abused his family and fractured the skull of a one-year old child, yet was jailed for only one year.

Call me crazy, but that seems ludicrously lax. Heck, we put old people in jail for five times longer for trivial offenses such as failing to file a form. Shouldn’t grievous bodily harm to an infant have harsher implications? This is almost as crazy as fining a gun owner $1,000 after he saved a child’s life.

Let’s conclude by returning to the main issue of today’s column. In the past, I’ve joked about gun-loving Texans; the Texas v. Europe approach to fighting terrorism and Texas, California, and the coyote. But today, let’s be glad one of those guys used his “assault rifle” to save lives.

Predictably, folks on the left immediately urged

Antifa, left, protesting Richard Spencer speaking at the University of Florida (UF) during a Hull Road march in Gainesville, Florida on October 19, 2017. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily)

Antifa, left, protesting Richard Spencer speaking at the University of Florida (UF) during a Hull Road march in Gainesville, Florida on October 19, 2017. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)

There’s no way to sugarcoat the monstrous evil of communism. The death toll is simply too large. But the silver lining to the dark cloud of Marxist socialism is that we have some clever jokes and satire.

We’ll start with the Gipper. Here are some of his anti-communism jokes that I should have included in my collection of Reagan videos.

Makes me miss Reagan even more. The only great president of my lifetime, and either the best or second-best president of the 20th century.

But let’s stay on topic. Here’s a cartoon that sums up the “success” of communist systems.

The folks at Redpanels, by the way, also have produced great cartoons on Keynesian economics, the minimum wagebasic income, and infrastructure.

Perhaps because of the rise of Antifa, even the Onion is mocking communism. Here are some excerpts, but the entire article is worth reading.

The filthy, disorganized apartment shared by three members of the Amherst College Marxist Society is a microcosm of why the social and economic utopia described in the writings of Karl Marx will never come to fruition, sources reported Monday. …Upon moving in together at the beginning of the fall 2001 semester, Dorff, Josh Foyle, and Tom Eaves sat down and devised an egalitarian system for harmonious living. Each individual roommate would be assigned a task, which he would be required to carry out on a predetermined day of the week. A bulletin board in the kitchen was chosen as the spot for household announcements, and to track reimbursements for common goods like toothpaste and toilet paper. “We were creating an exciting new model for living,” said Dorff, stubbing his cigarette into an ashtray that had not been emptied in six days. …Despite the roommates’ optimism, the system began to break down soon after its establishment. To settle disputes, the roommates held weekly meetings of the “Committee of Three.” …After weeks of complaining that he was the only one who knew how to clean “halfway decent,” Foyle began scaling back his efforts, mirroring the sort of production problems experienced in the USSR and other Soviet bloc nations. …The roommates have also tried to implement a food-sharing system, with similarly poor results. The dream of equal distribution of shared goods quickly gave way to pilferage, misallocation, and hoarding. “I bought the peanut butter the first four times, and this Organic Farms shit isn’t cheap,” Eaves said. “So ever since, I’ve been keeping it in my dresser drawer. If Kirk wants to make himself a sandwich, he can run to the corner store and buy some Jif.” …The lack of funds and the resulting scarcity breeds not only discontent but also corruption. Although collectivism only works when all parties contribute to the fullest extent, Foyle hid the existence of a $245 paycheck from roommates so he would not have to pay his back rent, in essence refusing to participate in the forced voluntary taxation that is key to socialism. Even worse, Dorff, who is entrusted with bill collection and payment, recently pocketed $30, a theft he claimed was “for the heating bill” but was put toward buying drinks later that night.

If you don’t want to read the entire story from the Onionthis cartoon basically has the same message.

Here’s a cartoon mocking the common excuse that Marxist socialism only fails because the right people haven’t been in charge.

There’s nothing subtle about this next bit of satire.

Though I wonder if the Occupy Wall Street crowd would even recognize that it’s a joke rather than serious.

Reminds me of this socialism poster.

Here’s a video from Reason‘s John Stossel. It makes very serious points, but has a mocking tone that I appreciate, so I decided to include it in today’s column.

Last but not least, let’s make fun of the guy who gave Marxism its name.

I have no idea if the various factoids in this image are true, but since Marx unleashed so much evil on the world, I’m more than willing to share unfair attacks on his “good name.”

Leftists have a daddy from Libertarian

At the risk of repeating myself, communism is an utterly evil system.

If you have some good anti-communist humor, please share in the comments section.

I’ll close by wondering whether the people who mocked communism when the Soviet Union still existed played a role in winning the Cold War. Yes, I realize that sounds like a bit of stretch, but I think mockery is an under-appreciated weapon. Anti-communism humor attacked the moral foundations of the Marxist system, something that was important since there were plenty of dupes and apologists who gave aid and comfort to tyranny.

There’s no way to sugarcoat the monstrous evil

A under contract sign on a home previously for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

A under contract sign on a home previously for sale in Vienna, Va. (Photo: Reuters)

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey was flat for the week ending November 3, 2017. However, the Purchase Index for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 1%, the first increase in 3 weeks to put the unadjusted purchase index 9% above its level a year ago.

The Market Composite Index remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index fell 1% from the previous week, while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 49.0% of total applications from 48.7% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.6% of total applications.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications also gained to 10.6% from 10.4% the week prior, while the Veterans Administration (VA) share of total applications gained to 10.0% from 9.9% the week prior. The Department of Agriculture (USDA) share of total applications decreased from 0.8% the week prior to 0.7%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) fell to 4.12% from 4.16%, with points increasing to 0.24 from 0.27 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $424,100) decreased to 4.05% from 4.07%, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.94% from 3.98%, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 3.51% from 3.52%, with points unchanged at 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs remained unchanged from the week prior at 3.33%, with points increasing to 0.59 from 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage

Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam speaks at a rally in Richmond in October. (Reuters)

Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam speaks at a rally in Richmond in October. (Reuters)

Democrat Lt. Governor Ralph Northam has defeated Republican Ed Gillespie in the 2017 Virginia governor race, People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) has projected. With 70% reporting (1,798 of 2,566 precincts), Lt. Gov. Northam led Mr. Gillespie with 51.9% to 46.9%.

Democratic candidate Justin Fairfax also defeated Republican Jill Vogel, though by a slimmer margin. Democrat Attorney General Mark Herring was reelected.

As PPD has repeatedly stated, the PPD Battleground State Likely Voter Metrics revealed the Commonwealth of Virginia is the one and only contested state where Democrats have made gains since the 2016 presidential election.

Thus far, Democrats have gained 11 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates: 2, 10, 13, 31, 32, 42, 50, 51, 67, 72 and 73. Worth noting, 10 is a smaller version of the district represented by Barbara Comstock, R-Va., who is an establishment Republican figure. The party believes traditional Republicans can hold support in that region of the state, but clearly they did not tonight.

Big Media has predictably painted the Virginia governor race as a referendum on President Donald J. Trump, which is bogus for numerous reasons. President Trump abandoned campaigning in the Commonwealth of Virginia in 2016 and lost it to Hillary Clinton, by an apparent slimmer margin than Mr. Gillespie will have lost it when all the votes are counted.

Further, as the PPD Election Projection Model noted back in 2013, Virginia had elected a candidate for governor from the opposite party in the White House from 1977 to 2009. That changed in 2013 when the Republican Party abandoned Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign against Governor Terry McAuliffe, and resumed with Mr. Gillespie’s defeat.

Democrat Lt. Governor Ralph Northam has defeated

LIVE ELECTION RESULTS

Ed Gillespie, a former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), is trying to score an upset against Democrat Lt. Governor Ralph Northam in the 2017 Virginia governor race.

The momentum in the final week appeared to be on Mr. Gillespie’s side and the intra-party fighting for Democrats could cost them. Lt. Gov. Northam will look to run up the margins in Northern Virginia, particularly in the Democratic stronghold of Fairfax County, while Mr. Gillespie will hope to hold that margin down and offset it with big margins in the West and South.

Background

Big Media has predictably attempted to paint this race as a referendum on President Donald J. Trump, which is bogus for numerous reasons. For starters, President Trump abandoned campaigning in the Commonwealth of Virginia in 2016 and lost it to Hillary Clinton.

Secondly, as the PPD Election Projection Model noted back in 2013, Virginia had elected an out-of-power candidate for governor from 1977 to 2009. That changed in 2013 when the Republican Party abandoned Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign against Governor Terry McAuliffe.

Polls

The final Virginia governor polls show Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam with a slight edge over Ed Gillespie. But as the People’s Pundit Richard Baris pointed out Monday, recent history indicates this race will be a nail-biter and the likely winner is uncertain.

Year RCP Average Actual Result Average Poll Bias Vote Turnout
2009 McDonnell +13.4% McDonnell +17.7% D+4.1 40.4%
2013 McAuliffe +6.0% McAuliffe +2.5% D+3.5 43%
2014 Warner +9.7% Warner +0.8% D+8.9%  41.6%

Overall, pollsters have overrepresented Democrats in the last two non-presidential cycle elections by an average 6.2 points, which would still be little more than a more comfortable squeaker for Mr. Gillespie.

Live election results for the 2017 Virginia

Emergency personnel respond to a fatal shooting at a Baptist church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2017. (Photos: AP)

Emergency personnel respond to a fatal shooting at a Baptist church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2017. (Photos: AP)

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Department of Defense (DOD) said they have launched an investigation into how the criminal records for Devin P. Kelley may have been mishandled. Kelley, who received a dishonorable discharge in 2014 for bad conduct, killed at least 26 people when he opened fire at a church in Sutherland Springs on Sunday.

In 2012, he was court-martialed for assaulting his wife and reportedly fracturing his stepson’s skull, which prohibits him from purchasing and owning a firearm. Here is the full statement emailed to People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) Monday night:

Following yesterday’s tragic events in Texas, the Department of Defense has requested the DoD Inspector General in concert with the Air Force to review the handling of criminal records in the case of former Airman Devin P. Kelley after his 2012 domestic violence convictions.

Kelley was found guilty by a general court martial on two charges of domestic assault against his wife and stepson under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. He was sentenced to 12 months confinement at Naval Consolidated Brig Miramar in California before being released with a Bad Conduct Discharge and reduction in grade to E-1.

In addition to a comprehensive review directed by Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson and Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. David Goldfein, the DoD IG will initiate an investigation to determine whether information about Kelley’s conviction was properly entered into the National Criminal Information Center database. The DoD IG will also review relevant policies and procedures to ensure records from other cases across DoD have been reported correctly.

Kelley, an apparent atheist, was convicted on two charges of domestic assault and served 12 months in confinement at the Naval Consolidated Brig in California.

The Department of Defense (DOD) said they

Democrat Ralph Northam (left) and Republican Ed Gillespie (right), candidates for the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race. (Photos: AP)

Democrat Ralph Northam (left) and Republican Ed Gillespie (right), candidates for the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race. (Photos: AP)

The final Virginia governor polls show Democratic Lt. Governor Ralph Northam has a slight edge over Republican Ed Gillespie. But recent history indicates this race will be a nail-biter and the likely winner is uncertain.

There’s no doubt the Old Dominion for years has started to look and vote like the New Dominion, as immigration and migration — along with wealthy whites — have turned it from a once reliably Republican state to a battleground state, at best.

In fact, of all the battleground states the Big Data Poll constructs likely voter profiles in, Virginia is the one and only to show Democratic gains. The PPD Battleground State Likely Voter Metrics now give Democrats a partisan voting edge of D+4, up from +2.4 gauged last year.

Nevertheless, the record of polling inaccuracy in the Commonwealth indicates Lt. Gov. Northam has no reason to be overly optimistic about his current 3.3% lead on the Real Clear Politics average. UPDATE: Lt. Gov. Northam’s lead is now down to 3.2%.

In off-years, voter turnout in the Commonwealth of Virginia declines significantly and the electorate can be very difficult to project, giving pollsters little room for error.

Let’s take a look at that disparity and see how well (or, rather poorly) pollsters have performed.

As we can see, the drop off is significant and, historically, pollsters haven’t done a particularly good job adjusting for this. Worth noting, Mr. Gillespie himself has been underrepresented in the surveys, far more than the previous gubernatorial contest.

Virginia Governor – McDonnell vs. Deeds (2009)

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

Source: RCP Virginia Governor – McDonnell vs. Deeds

When former Governor Bob McDonnell won in a landslide in 2009, he was still underrepresented by 4.1%.

Virginia Governor – Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe (2013)

Virginia Governor - Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe

Source: RCP Virginia Governor – Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe

Polls missed the mark in 2013 with an average error of D +3.5%, which would give Mr. Gillespie the win tomorrow in a squeaker if duplicated. However, pollsters didn’t show improvement the next election cycle. They got worse.

Virginia Senate – Gillespie vs. Warner (2014)

Virginia Senate - Gillespie vs. Warner

Source: RCP Virginia Senate – Gillespie vs. Warner

Polls really blew it in 2014 with an average error of D +8.9%, which would give Mr. Gillespie a comfortable win tomorrow if duplicated.

Overall, polls overrepresented Democrats in the two most recent non-presidential election cycles by an average 6.2 points (D +6.2%), which would still be little more than a more comfortable squeaker for Mr. Gillespie. The average error for the last three is D +5.5%, also putting Lt. Gov. Northam’s lead in question.

(Please note: This article will be updated more throughout the day.)

The final Virginia governor polls show Democratic

Former U.S. Congressman Anthony Weiner departs U.S. Federal Court, following his sentencing after pleading guilty to one count of sending obscene messages to a minor, ending an investigation into a "sexting" scandal that played a role in last year's U.S. presidential election, in New York, U.S.,September 25, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Former U.S. Congressman Anthony Weiner departs U.S. Federal Court, following his sentencing after pleading guilty to one count of sending obscene messages to a minor, ending an investigation into a “sexting” scandal that played a role in last year’s U.S. presidential election, in New York, U.S.,September 25, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., will begin his 21-month prison sentence on Monday after being found guilty of sexting obscene messages to a 15-year-old girl. The disgraced former lawmaker was a key Clinton ally and is the soon-to-be former husband of Huma Abedin, a close and longtime aide to Hillary Clinton.

Weiner, 53, has until 2:00 PM EST to surrender at at Devens Federal Medical Center in Massachusetts after he was sentenced by a New York federal judge in September. He was also ordered to pay a $10,000 fine but no restitution, though the teenage victim requested it from the court. He bowed his head, put his face in his hand and sobbed as the judge imposed the sentence.

Ms. Abedin was nowhere to be seen on sentencing day.

Court records showed that he repeatedly encouraged an underage girl to undress and fondle herself over Skype. Federal prosecutors demonstrated the former congressman from Brooklyn began a 2-month long sexting relationship with the teen from North Carolina shortly after she messaged him on Twitter in January 2016. He argued that he was addicted to a sick obsession with sexting strangers — as opposed to an obsession with underage girls — but is now in recovery.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) also seized his electronic devices and found more documents on his laptop sent to and from Mrs. Clinton and Ms. Abedin, which were classified. In truth, the sentence was relatively light considering a conviction of the crime carried up to 10 years in prison.

The facility in Ayer, located roughly 40 miles West of Boston, has over 1,000 inmates at the medical center and over 100 more at an adjacent minimum security satellite camp.

Following his release from prison, Weiner will be subject to online supervision, he will pay $10,000 fine and will take part in a treatment program.

The former congressman’s sex addiction came to light in 2015 after a picture surfaced that he sent of himself in his underwear with his son sleeping next to him.

Weiner’s wife, Huma Abedin, did not appear at his sentencing in September. She has since filed for divorce.

Disgraced former Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner will

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., left, speaks to supporters in Hebron, Kentucky on August 11, 2017. Rene Boucher, right, who was arrested and charged with assaulting and injuring U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kty. (Photos: AP/Warren County Regional Jail)

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., left, speaks to supporters in Hebron, Kentucky on August 11, 2017. Rene Boucher, right, who was arrested and charged with assaulting and injuring U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kty. (Photos: AP/Warren County Regional Jail)

Senator Rand Paul, R-Kty., is recovering from 5 broken ribs and is in considerable pain following an assault at his home in Bowling Green on Friday. Rene Boucher, 59, was arrested and charged with misdemeanor fourth-degree assault and court records show was released on Saturday on a $7,500 bond.

Fox News reported he is also a registered Democrat.

Sen. Paul said on Twitter he has received overwhelming support “after Friday’s unfortunate event,” thanking everyone for their “thoughts and prayers.”

Kentucky State Police said Mr. Boucher — , an anesthesiologist and pain specialist in Bowling Green — did not return a phone call for comment and it is unclear if he has an attorney.

A court date is scheduled for Thursday for Mr. Boucher, who according to Warren County property records lives next door to Sen. Paul and his wife. He developed a product called Therm-a-Vest, a cloth vest partially filled with rice and secured by Velcro straps designed to relieve back pain.

A spokeswoman for Sen. Paul said he was “blindsided” by the assault but did not provide more details.

Doug Stafford, a senior advisor to the libertarian-leaning senator, said it is unclear when he will return to work. Sen. Paul is having difficulty getting around and cannot fly at this time. Mr. Stafford said Sunday that the broken ribs include three displaced fractures, which can lead to life-threatening injuries and causes severe pain that can last for weeks or even months.

Senator Rand Paul, R-Kty., is recovering from

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