Widget Image
Follow PPD Social Media
follow
1,000 Followers
follow
0 Followers
follow
People's Pundit Locals Community
Thursday, December 12, 2024
SECTIONS
logo
mobile-logo
HomeStandard Blog Whole Post (Page 3)
Polls

Vector graphic design illustration for Georgia election map. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Vector graphic design illustration for Georgia election map. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The two Georgia Senate runoffs that will determine the balance of power in the upper chamber on January 5 are very close, a new poll finds. The survey conducted by Big Data Poll finds both Democratic candidates are benefiting from turnout questions for Republicans.

Democratic challenger John Ossoff holds a slight lead over incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue 47% to 44.5%, with 8.6% undecided. Raphael Warnock leads Republican Kelly Loeffler 47.6% to 43.4%, with 9.1% undecided.

Mr. Perdue was formerly a businessman before he defeated Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn in 2014 and is now the senior senator from Georgia. He received a larger share of the vote compared to Mr. Ossoff on November 3, 49.73% to 47.95%, respectively.

Live Results: 2020 U.S. Senate Elections

Mrs. Loeffler, a businesswoman turned junior senator, was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Republican Governor Brian Kemp in December 2019 after Senator Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., resigned for health reasons. She received 25.91% of the vote compared to 32.90% for Mr. Warnock in the special election for U.S. Senate.

Representative Doug Collins, R-Ga., received 19.95%, and none of the remaining Democratic candidates received double-digit vote shares. However, as neither candidate in either race received more than 50% of the vote on November 3, the top-two vote-getters face a runoff on January 5.

By region, Senator Perdue leads Mr. Ossoff in the North 52.1% to 39.7%, the Central by 54.8% to 34.8%, but barely in the heavily Republican Coast/South. Mr. Ossoff leads in the Atlanta Suburbs 51.4% to 40.4% and the Atlanta Metro area 57.4% to 32.8%. Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris says those margins are more indicative of turnout than actual voter preference.

“The Coast/South region of Georgia is heavily Republicans and it will prove to be victory or defeat for both Senators Perdue and Loeffler if they cannot get them to vote,” he stated. “Republican base voters are angry with the party and they could very well cut off their noses to spite their faces.”

Democrats are more certain to vote in the runoffs at 84.2% juxtaposed to Republicans at 80.9% and independent/others at 76.1%. Nearly twice as many Republicans (4.2%) say they are unlikely to vote as are Democrats (2.2%), and non-major party voters (7.8%) are nearly twice as unlikely as Republicans to say as much.

By area, Mr. Ossoff leads among urban voters 64.4% to 26.5%, and barely leads among suburban voters 47.7% to 44.1%. Senator Perdue leads among rural voters 57.5% to 33.5%.

The Peach State Battleground Poll was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,008 likely voters in Georgia via mixed-mode online from December 4 to December 11, 2020. The sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. View the full results on Google Sheets.

The two Georgia Senate runoffs that will

Economy

Jobs Report Joins ADP, Other Indicators in Post-Election Slowdown

Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report finds total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7%.

Forecasts for total nonfarm employment ranged from a low of 200,000 to a high of 610,000. The consensus was 500,000. Forecasts for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 6.5% to a high of 7.0%. The consensus forecast was 6.8%.

The labor force participation rate ticked down 0.2 to 61.5%, missing the forecast. Forecasts ranged from a low of 61.5% to a high of 61.9%. The consensus forecast was 61.6%. The less-cited employment-population ratio was little changed though down 0.1 to 57.3%.

The monthly jobs report is the latest indicator to slowdown in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Total private sector employment rose 307,000 in November, a post-election slowdown that missed the forecast for the ADP National Employment Report. The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI (PMI) showed cooler than expected growth for at 55.9% in November, with comments from the panel citing the election.

Construction employment rose by 27,000 jobs in November, though is still 279,000 below its February level. That was driven by gains in residential specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+10,000). Manufacturing employment gained 27,000 jobs, though is 599,000 lower than in February.

In November, average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 9 cents to $29.58. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents to $24.87. The large employment fluctuations over the past several months — especially in industries with lower-paid workers — complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.

Forecasts for 12-month wage growth ranged from a low 4.1% to a high of 4.6%. The consensus was 4.3%. Wage growth was 4.4% in November, slightly more than the forecast but still far above average — as has historically been the case during the Trump Era.

Meanwhile, combined job creation was stronger than initially reported for the two months leading up to the election. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 39,000, from +672,000 to +711,000, and October was revised down by 28,000, from +638,000 to
+610,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined was 11,000 more than previously reported.

The monthly jobs report finds total nonfarm

Economy

U.S. Service Sector Activity Cools Post-Election in November

United States Postal Service (USPS) workers don face masks and gloves behind plexiglass at the USPS location on N. Main in Gainesville, Fla., during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily/PPD)
United States Postal Service (USPS) workers don face masks and gloves behind plexiglass at the USPS location on N. Main in Gainesville, Fla., during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)

Tempe, Arizona (PPD) — The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI (PMI) showed cooler than expected growth for November. The reading at 55.9% indicates economic activity in the services sector grew for the six month in a row, though at a slower pace post-election, and has expanded for all but two of the last 130 months.

“In November, there continued to be a slight pullback in the rate of growth in the services sector. Respondents’ comments are mixed about business conditions and the economy,” said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. “Restaurants continue to struggle with capacity constraints and logistics.”

“Most companies are cautious as they navigate operations amid the pandemic and the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election.”

The Supplier Deliveries Index came in at 57%, up 0.8 from October. It’s the only index in the Services PMI that is inversed. The Prices Index came in at 66.1% and is 2.2 higher than the previous month, indicating prices increased at a faster rate.

“Uncertainty related to the U.S. election is resulting in additional cybersecurity needs,” comments from the panel in Finance & Insurance, read.

The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI

Economy

ADP Adds to Post-Election Slowdown Indicated in Major Labor Market Indicators

A newspaper with the headline "Job Market". (Photo: AdobeStock)
A newspaper with the headline “Job Market”. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Roseland, N.J. (PPD) — Total private sector employment rose 307,000 in November, a post-election slowdown that missed the forecast for the ADP National Employment Report. Forecasts ranged from a low of 350,000 to a high of 550,000. The consensus forecast was 420,000.

The goods-producing sector added 31,000 private sector jobs after adding an initially reported 196,000 the month prior. Construction added 22,000 after 60,000, manufacturing added just 8,000 after 130,000 and natural resources/mining added 1,000 after 7,000.

“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”

The total number of private sector jobs added in October was revised from 365,000 to 404,000.

The data for this report are collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12 of each month. The ADP National Employment Report for December will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on January 6, 2021.

Total private sector employment rose 307,000 in

Economy

Historically Low Mortgage Rates and Inventory Driving Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)

A photo of a home pending for sale with sale pending on a realty sign. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A photo of a home pending for sale with sale pending on a realty sign. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported pending home sales fell for the second straight month in September, though each region posted year-over-year growth. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) — a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings — was down 1.1% to 128.9 in October.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 1.0% to a high of 3.9%. The consensus forecast was 2.0. Year-over-year, contract signings are still up 20.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Pending home transactions saw a small drop off from the prior month but still easily outperformed last year’s numbers for October,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said. “The housing market is still hot, but we may be starting to see rising home prices hurting affordability.”

Regional Pending Home Sales

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 5.9% to 112.3 in October, though is still up 18.5% from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index slid slightly by 0.7% to 119.6, but is still up 19.6% from October 2019.

Pending home sales in the South ticked 0.1% higher to an index of 151.1, and is now up 21.0% from October 2019. The index in the West remained unchanged at 116.8, up 20.8% from a year ago.

Pending home sales fell for the second

Economy

New Residential Sales for September Revised to Highest Annual Rate Since 2006

An exchange showing one hand giving cash to the another for new house and keys, a vector illustration for new home sales. (Photo: AdobeStock)
An exchange showing one hand giving cash to the another for new house and keys, a vector illustration for new home sales. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) jointly reported the new residential sales statistics for October 2020. New home sales of single-family houses came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000 in October, and are now up 41.6% (±22.6%) year-over-year.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 935,000 annual rate to a high of 1,035,000. The consensus forecast was looking for an annual rate of 975,000. While the figure for October is technically a 0.3% (±13.6%) decline month-over-month, it’s because the revised rate for September is now 1,002,000, the highest since November 2006.

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2020 came in at $330,600, while the average sales price was $386,200. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 278,000, representing a supply of 3.3 months at the current sales rate.

Housing, Once Primed to Lead Economic Recovery, Now Uncertain

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) recently reported, indicators widely showed the U.S. housing market was “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts foresaw housing leading the economic recovery and raised growth forecasts for the sector.

The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence soared another 5 points to 90 in November, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. However, the apparent economic firing on all four cylinders is no longer a given following the election, as changing policies will hinder growth.

“Historically low mortgage rates, favorable demographics and an ongoing suburban shift for home buyer preferences have spurred demand and increased new home sales by nearly 17% in 2020 on a year-to-date basis,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Looking ahead to next year, regulatory policy risk will be a key concern given these supply-side constraints.”

New home sales of single-family houses came

Economy

U.S. Economy Grew at the Fastest Pace Ever in the Third Quarter

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept with yellow square pixels on a black matrix background. (Photo: AdobeStock)

New York, N.Y. (PPD) — The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the second estimate for third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) held at a historic 33.1% on an annualized basis. Due to mitigation efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), real GDP fell -32.4% in Q2 2020.

Forecasts for the “advance” estimate ranged from a low of 20.0% to a high of 36.0%. The consensus forecast was 30.9%. Forecasts for the second estimate ranged from a low of 32.9% to a high of 33.6%. The consensus forecast was 33.1%.

Increases in nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports offset downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up but offset.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 25.5% in Q3, after declining 32.6% (revised) in Q2. The average of real GDP and real GDI — a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — rose 29.2% in the quarter after falling 32.0% (revised).

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second

Economy

Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell more than expected by 5.3 points in November and was revised higher for October. The Index now stands at 96.1 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised reading of 101.4. Pandemic aside, this is the lowest consumer confidence reading since May 2016 and the first in the 90s since a month before Donald J. Trump won the presidency in November 2016.

Without a doubt, the decline was driven by consumers’ views about the future. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell only slightly from 106.2 to 105.9. But the Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — declined significantly from 98.2 to 89.5.

“Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4.”

“Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.”

The Consumer Confidence Survey (CCI) is based on a probability-design random sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 18. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 13.

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was relatively unchanged in November. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” declined from 18.6 percent to 17.6 percent, but those claiming business conditions are “bad” also decreased, from 34.4 percent to 33.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was unchanged. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” held steady at 26.7 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” was virtually unchanged at 19.5 percent.

Consumers, however, have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 36.0 percent to 27.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.9 percent to 19.8 percent. Consumers’ optimism regarding the job market also weakened. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 32.0 percent to 25.9 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased moderately from 19.8 percent to 20.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase was virtually unchanged at 17.6 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 14.2 percent to 13.3 percent.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Decreased in November

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

Economy

U.S. economy on an American flag background waving in the wind, in 3D rendering. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. economy on an American flag background waving in the wind, in 3D rendering. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated increased economic growth in October, while September was revised higher. The CFNAI came in +0.83 in August after an initially reported +0.27 in September, which was revised higher to +0.32.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.1 to a high of 0.27. The consensus forecast was 0.1. Three of the four broad categories of indicators made positive contributions in October, but all four fell from an upwardly revised July.

The CFNAI-MA3 — the three-month moving average for the index — fell to +0.75 in October from +1.37 in September. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to +0.51 in October from +0.55 in September.

Sixty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 24 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from September to October, 30 indicators deteriorated, and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Economy

NAR: Existing Home Sales Continue to Set Records, Though Election and Covid-19 Put Future Surge in Doubt

File photo: A sold sign on an existing home. (Photo: AdobeStock)
File photo: A sold sign on an existing home. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales soared again in October, easily beating the forecast and gaining for the fifth straight month. While all four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year gains, the Midwest saw the highest climb in both.

Total existing-home sales — completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — increased 4.3% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million. That surpasses September and the surge in August, when sales hit the highest level since December 2006, and a record 24.7% gain in July.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 6.3 million to a high of 6.68 million. The consensus forecast was 6.47 million. Year-over-year, sales are up 26.6% from a year ago (5.41 million in October 2019).

“Considering that we remain in a period of stubbornly high unemployment relative to pre-pandemic levels, the housing sector has performed remarkably well this year,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. “The surge in sales in recent months has now offset the spring market losses.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types was $313,000 in October, a 15.5% increase from October 2019 ($271,100). Prices increased in every region and this month marks 104 consecutive months of national year-over-year price gains.

Total housing inventory totaled 1.42 million units for the month, a decline of 2.7% from the prior month and down 19.8% from one year ago (1.77 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 2.5-month supply at the current sales pace, also down from 2.7 months in September and from the 3.9-month figure in October 2019.

“Homebuilders’ confidence has soared even though the actual production has not,” Mr. Yun said. “All measures, such as reduction to lumber tariffs and expansion of vocational training, need to be considered to significantly boost supply and construct new housing.”

The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence soared another 5 points to 90 in November, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.

Regional Breakdown for Existing Home Sales

Median home prices year-over-year rose by double-digits in each of the four major regions.

In the Northeast, existing home sales increased 4.7%, posting an annual rate of 900,000, up 30.4% from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast came in at $356,500, a gain of 20.2% from October 2019.

Existing home sales shot up 8.6% in the Midwest to an annual rate of 1,640,000, and are now up 28.1% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $243,500, a gain of 16.7% from October 2019.

In the South, existing home sales gained 3.2% to an annual rate of 2.91 million, and are now up 26.5% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $272,500, a 15.7% increase from a year ago.

Existing home sales in the West ticked up 1.4% to an annual rate of 1,400,000, and are now up 22.8% increase from a year ago. The median price in the West was $467,800, an increase of 15.1% from October 2019.

Existing home sales soared again in October,

People's Pundit Daily
You have %%pigeonMeterAvailable%% free %%pigeonCopyPage%% remaining this month. Get unlimited access and support reader-funded, independent data journalism.

Start a 14-day free trial now. Pay later!

Start Trial

Subscribe