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Economy

A woman pulls shopping carts through the aisle of a Target store in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

A woman pulls shopping carts through the aisle of a Target store in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge by the University of Michigan, finds consumer sentiment inched slightly higher than expected in July to 93.4. However, the Sentiment Index has declined by 5.1 points since it hit a 12-year high in January fueled by the election of President Donald J. Trump.

“The relatively small decline still left the Sentiment Index higher in the first seven months of 2017 than in any other year since 2004,” Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said. “The size of the decline was tempered by record favorable views of Current Economic Conditions, which rose to its highest level since July of 2005.”

Mr. Curtain attributed the gains to improvements in consumers’ personal finances. Still, consumers expressed less optimism about future prospects for the overall economy in July, as well as for their own personal finances.

The Expectations Index fell from 90.3 in January to a still positive strong 80.5 in July.

“If it continues to decline by another 10 points in the second half of 2017, the loss would become more worrisome,” Mr. Curtain added. “Moreover, while current conditions were judged strictly on the performance of the economy, expectations continue to be significantly influenced by partisanship.”

In the Expectations Index, Democrats and Republicans were 45 Index-points apart, 63.7 versus 108.7, respectively. Among Independents, the Expectations Index was exactly equal to the weighted difference between the partisan extremes (80.5). Worth noting, the partisan gap has narrowed in the past six months, largely fueled by a tempering of optimism among Republicans.

“The recent declines among Republicans were somewhat predictable, but the maintenance of extreme pessimism among Democrats is more surprising,” he said.

The Conference Board said Tuesday the Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly, hitting and holding onto a 16-year high. Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending bounced back strong in the second quarter (2Q), pushing the advanced reading for gross domestic product (GDP) to an annualized 2.6% rate.

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

World

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un salutes during a visit to the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces on the occasion of the new year, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on January 10, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un salutes during a visit to the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces on the occasion of the new year, in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on January 10, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

North Korea launched another long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, the U.S. Pentagon confirmed. It was not immediately which ballistic missile was launched.

“We detected a ballistic missile test on Friday and anticipated it,” a senior official told People’s Pundit Daily. “It was just conducted sooner than we initially thought it would due to weather.”

The launch, which was the first since the rogue leftwing regime tested a new ballistic missile on July 4, 2017, occurred shortly before 11:00 AM EST. U.S. officials believed the launch date would be Thursday–the 64th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended fighting in the Korean War. The North and South Koreans are still technically in a state of war.

Though the ICBM on July 4 was believed to be a version of the KN-17, North Korea designated it the Hwasong-14. With the launch, Pyongyang took a major step forward by developing a new model and beat the previous record.

It flew for 37 minutes and reached a height of 1,500 miles, or roughly 2414 kilometers, breaking the DPRK’s previous record of 30 minutes and 1,000 feet set on Mother’s Day. Rather than a single-stage, it was outfitted with a second stage, liquid propulsion system that gives Pyongyang the capability to reach the U.S.–Alaska.

It’s an improvement from the Hwasong-12, which has a maximum range of 4,500 kilometers.

“Had the same motor’s thrust been put to a range-maximizing flight path, the Hwasong-14 could have traveled as far as 7,000 kilometers, enough to reach Alaska and well in range of Guam,” claimed Thomas Karako, a Senior Fellow at the International Security Program Missile Defense Project.

“If fired in an eastward direction to take advantage of the rotation of the earth, the Hwasong-14 could potentially reach up to 8,000 kilometers, putting Hawaii at risk.”

In order to reach the continental U.S., Pyongyang would still need an ICBM with a range of over 8,000 kilometers. To put the East Coast at risk, that range increases to at least 10,000 kilometers.

North Korea launched another long-range intercontinental ballistic

Economy

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles, California, February 18, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a healthy 2.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, matching the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. The rate of growth is more than double the 1.2% GDP rate posted in the first quarter.

The “advance” estimate released by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) comes before the “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, which will be released on August 30, 2017.

Consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of all U.S. economic output, came in at a stronger than anticipated 2.8% annual rate. Business investment, at 5.2%, was once again very strong and helped to offset a 6.8% decline for residential investment.

Inventories were slightly negative for the quarter, while net exports improved and proved a slight positive. Government purchases added slightly to the quarter. Inflation was very weak, at only a 1.0% rate. The core is similar, at 1.1% and down from 2.4% in the first quarter.

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy

Politics

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 20: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (C) approaches the microphones before talking with reporters with Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) (L), Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) (R) following the weekly GOP policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol June 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo: Reuters)

WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 20: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (C) approaches the microphones before talking with reporters with Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) (L), Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) (R) following the weekly GOP policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol June 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. Senate voted to reject an amendment for a “skinny repeal” of ObamaCare that would’ve done away with the individual and employer mandates, as well as the medical device tax. The final vote was 51 to 49.

Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, joined Susan Collins of Maine to tank the bill. An audible gasp was heard in the Senate chamber when McCain gave the thumbs down.

All but Sen. Collins voted “Yes” on an outright repeal bill in 2015, when Republicans knew it would be vetoed by Barack Obama. An almost identical repeal bill failed Thursday when 7 Republicans voted no. Now that Republicans have the chance to cast a meaningful vote, keep a 7-year promise to voters with a president willing to sign it, they caved.

The U.S. Senate voted to reject an

Politics

Bill Browder, the CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee about Fusion GPA, the shadowy firm hired to conduct “smear campaigns” on July 27, 2017. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily)
Bill Browder, the CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee about Fusion GPA, the shadowy firm hired to conduct “smear campaigns” on July 27, 2017. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)

Bill Browder testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee that he suspects Fusion GPS gives “incentives” to journalists who push stories for their “smear campaigns.” Fusion GPS, a shadowy company founded by two former Wall Street Journal reporters, including Glenn Simpson, was behind the discredited Kremlin-sourced Trump dossier.

“I suspect a number of journalists, and one in particular, were operating so far outside the bounds of normal journalistic integrity there must have been some incentive for them to do it coming from Fusion GPS,” he said.

Mr. Browder, the CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital, was set to testify before the committee on Wednesday. But Democrats used a parliamentary rule to cut short the hearing before he could give damning testimony against Fusion GPS.

“I am disappointed that the minority invoked the two-hour rule to shut this hearing down before we could hear Mr. Browder’s testimony yesterday,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Ia., the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee said in his opening statement. “Mr.Browder has traveled from overseas to be here today to testify about the Russians’ efforts to manipulate our government and media.”

“If the Democrats are truly serious about getting to the bottom of Russian interference, they should hear him out.”

Fusion GPS was hired to conduct a smear campaign against Sergei Magnitsky and Mr. Browder before congressional hearings on the Global Magnitsy Act. Mr. Magnitsky, a Russian attorney and auditor, was tortured and murdered after he uncovered a money-laundering scheme in Russia.

The Justice Department (DOJ) alleged Prevezon Holdings, a company run by Russian businessman Denis Katsyv, benefited from the felonious scheme and targeted them in a civil asset forfeiture case.

Mr. Katsyv retained Natalia Veselnitskaya, the very same woman and Russian attorney who sought a meeting at Trump Tower with Donald Trump Jr., his brother-in-law Jared Kushner and then-presidential campaign manager Paul Manafort.

Funded by Democrats, Fusion GPS hired former British intelligence agent Christopher Steele to gather opposition research against President Trump, then the leading Republican presidential candidate. Mr. Steele almost exclusively used sources linked to the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin to put together the Trump dossier, which Democrats widely circulated knowing it contained discredited information.

The hearing on Wednesday pertained to violations by Fusion GPS of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, otherwise known as FARA. Enacted in 1938, FARA requires agents representing the interests of foreign powers in a “political or quasi-political capacity” to disclose their relationship with that foreign government and information about related activities and finances.

Mr. Bowder testified that they and Ms. Veselnitskaya “without a doubt” acted on behalf of the Russian government to create “chaos” in the American political system.

As The Washington Times reported, he has identified his sources in the dossier as “a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure,” a former “top level Russian intelligence officer active inside the Kremlin,” a “senior Kremlin official” and a “senior Russian government official.”

Bill Browder testified before the Senate Judiciary

Politics

Reps. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., left, and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, members of the House Freedom Caucus, talk before a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing. (Photo: AP)

Reps. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., left, and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, members of the House Freedom Caucus, talk before a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing. (Photo: AP)

House conservatives introduced an amendment in the House Judiciary Committee to open an investigation into “the real criminals”–James Comey and Loretta Lynch. The Senate Judiciary Committee had already done so after the former FBI director admitted under oath the former attorney general directed him to call the Clinton email probe a “matter,” not an investigation, as People’s Pundit Daily first reported on May 11.

But thus far it has gone nowhere.

Now, roughly one week after House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., told reporters GOP lawmakers “weren’t elected to defend Donald Trump,” House Freedom Caucus members are saying it’s time to do just and push for a special prosecutor.

“Former Attorney General Loretta Lynch told then-FBI Director James Comey to mislead the American people about the Clinton email investigation. James Comey testified to this fact under oath,” Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, said in a statement. “Even Senator Dianne Feinstein said this should be investigated. I’m supporting the efforts of my colleague Congressman Matt Gaetz to have a special counsel investigate this important issue.”

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., the Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in June on CNN’s “State of the Union” that lawmakers need to “take a look” at Ms. Lynch. However, Rep. Mike Gaetz, R-Fla., the lead sponsor of the amendment, said the ever-expanding probes have centered around “baseless accusations and spurious claims” in order “to discredit and undermine President Trump.”

“From Loretta Lynch’s bizarre ‘tarmac meeting’ with Bill Clinton, to James Comey’s leaks of classified correspondence to the media, these are issues that matter to the American people, who have been justly bothered by the inaction of Congress,” Rep. Gaetz said. “That inaction ends today, because today, my colleagues and I started going after the real criminals. May justice be served.”

Then-Attorney General Lynch was caught holding a secret meeting with Bill Clinton on her government airplane at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. The highly-improper meeting, which took place during the ongoing investigation, was only revealed after a local reporter noticed the overlap in their travel schedules and decided to poke around.

While the former attorney general said after the news broke that she would defer the decision to prosecute Mrs. Clinton to “career officials” at the Justice Department, she refused to recuse herself.

Worth noting, Ms. Lynch was only tapped to be U.S. Attorney General due to her qualifications as U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of New York. She got that appointment courtesy of then-President Clinton, the husband of the target of the FBI investigation and a person of interest, himself.

In the end, Mr. Comey pulled the rug out from beneath his own agents investigating the case.

On Tuesday, July 5, 2016, he went before the nation and announced during an unprecedented, highly irregular press conference that he would not recommend charges against Clinton. Mr. Comey claimed “no reasonable prosecutor” would prosecute Mrs. Clinton, despite admitting to multiple violations. He also said, which was vehemently disputed by agents who spoke with People’s Pundit Daily, the decision was reached by consensus.

“Conservatives believe we have to defend the President,” House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, R-N.C., told Sean Hannity during an interview Wednesday night. “Lady justice is blindfolded.”

Mr. Comey would later admit under oath that he intentionally leaked his memos to the media with the explicit intent on forcing the appointment of a special prosecutor. Now, Robert Mueller, his friend and mentor, is serving as the head of a team packed with Clinton loyalists investigation President Trump, despite Justice Department policy and law barring him from doing so based on his relationship to Mr. Comey.

“My colleagues and I introduced this amendment because we are tired of passively allowing the left and the radical media to distract from the Republican agenda through wild accusations,” Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., said. “Most of the claims made about President Trump and his team are nothing more than unfounded, unsourced, anonymous allegations that merely serve the purpose of trying to delegitimize the President and prevent Congress from carrying out the agenda we promised to the American people.”

Reps. Biggs is also a lead sponsor of the amendment, along with Rep. Gaetz.

“It is time for the Left to respond to the blatant misconduct of Hillary Clinton, Eric Holder, James Comey, Susan Rice, and Loretta Lynch,” Rep. Biggs added. “Our constituents want justice for the scandals of the Obama administration, and we must earn and keep their trust by demanding information and investigations.”

House conservatives introduced an amendment to the Judiciary

Economy

A worker stacks boxes of television sets after they have been assembled, checked and repackaged, before moving them to the warehouse at Element Electronics in Winnsboro, South Carolina May 29, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A worker stacks boxes of television sets after they have been assembled, checked and repackaged, before moving them to the warehouse at Element Electronics in Winnsboro, South Carolina May 29, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at 0.13, up from -0.30 in May and much stronger than the 0.10 median economist forecast. The index’s 3-month moving average, otherwise known as CFNAI-MA3, gained to +0.06 in June, up from –0.04 in May.

All 4 broad categories of indicators in the index gained from May, and 3 of the 4 made positive contributions to the index in June. The index for May was revised to –0.30 from an initial estimate of –0.26, and April was revised to +0.36 from the estimate of +0.57.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, rose to +0.01 in June from –0.08 in May. Forty (40) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 45 made negative contributions.

Fifty-six (56) indicators increased in June from May, while 28 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.

The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 20, 2017, when 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. Estimates were used for the remaining indicators in constructing the index.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Economy

Jobless claims, an application for first-time unemployment benefits. (Photo: Reuters)

Jobless claims, an application for first-time unemployment benefits. (Photo: Reuters)

The Labor Department said Thursday applications for first-time jobless claims rose to 244,000, but indicate demand for labor still remains very strong. The increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level is slightly higher than the 240,000 forecast, and pops the gauge off of a 3-month low.

The report marks the 125th straight week that weekly jobless claims remained below 300,000, a threshold indicative of a tight, strong labor market. The four-week moving average–widely considered a better gauge as it irons of volatility–was 244,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average.

Lagging data for continuing claims fell 13,000 to 1.96 million in the week ended July 15. They have now been below 2 million for 15 straight weeks, also indicating a strong labor market. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose slightly 4,750 to 1.96 million, remaining below the 2 million mark for 13 consecutive weeks.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the claims data  and no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending July 8.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 8 were in Puerto Rico (3.6), New Jersey (2.7), Connecticut (2.5), Alaska (2.3), Pennsylvania (2.2), Rhode Island (2.2), California (2.1), Massachusetts (2.0), Illinois (1.8), Nevada (1.8), and New York (1.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 15 were in California (+6,862), Alabama (+2,772), Georgia (+2,533), South Carolina (+2,050), and Texas (+1,152), while the largest decreases were in New York (-8,287), Michigan (-6,869), Kentucky (-6,862), New Jersey (-3,923), and Ohio (-3,093).

The Labor Department said Thursday applications for

Economy

Nathan Rogers works on the jet assembly line at Cessna, at their manufacturing plant in Wichita, Kansas March 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Nathan Rogers works on the jet assembly line at Cessna, at their manufacturing plant in Wichita, Kansas March 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

The Commerce Department reported Thursday U.S. durable goods orders increased 6.5%, nearly doubling economists’ expectations for 3.5% in June. New orders for long-lasting manufactured durable goods increased $14.9 billion to $245.6 billion, fueled by orders for civilian aircraft.

The increase this month follows two consecutive monthly declines, including a revised 0.1% decline in May. This is the strongest gain in nearly 3 years and May was initially reported as a 1.1% decline.

Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods gained 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 6.7%. Transportation equipment, skyrocketing 19% from $14.6 billion to $91.6 billion, led the gains after two consecutive months of declines.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods were down during 3 of the last 4 months, decreasing $0.1 billion to $236.0 billion. In May, they rose 1.2%. Transportation equipment, down 5 of the last 6 months, largely fueled the decline, $0.4 billion or 0.6% to $78.8 billion.

Unfilled orders have been up 3 of the last 4 months, increased 1.3% in June, up $14.2 billion to $1,135.6 billion. This followed a 0.1% May decrease. Transportation equipment, also up 3 of the last 4 months, largely fueled the increase, rising $12.8 billion (1.7%) to $776.8 billion.

Inventories have been up 11 of the last 12 months including a 0.1% gain in May. They were up $1.6 billion, or 0.4% to $397.0 billion in June. Machinery, up 7 of the last 8 months, led the increase in inventories in this report, rising $0.8 billion (1.2%) to $68.3 billion.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday U.S. durable

Economy

The headquarters of mortgage lender Freddie Mac is seen in Mclean, Virginia, near Washington, in this September 8, 2008 file photo. (Photo: Reuters)

The headquarters of mortgage lender Freddie Mac is seen in Mclean, Virginia, near Washington, in this September 8, 2008 file photo. (Photo: Reuters)

The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) continued to show Agency purchase loan volume increasing, fueled largely by the easing of lending standards. Agency purchase loan volume by count was up 4% from April 2016 and a whopping 34% from April 2014. The increase in volume over the years is being driven as well by continued strength in the labor market.

The NMRI for Agency purchase loans stood at 12.7% in April, up 0.1% from a year earlier and up 0.3% from April 2015. The year-over-year credit easing trend has resumed from an already high level. The first-time buyer NMRI for the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) now stands at 25.4%, up 0.8% from a year earlier.

“With the rate of real home price increases accelerating, particularly for entry level homes, the continuing boom in financed home sales is dependent on the ability of first time buyers to take on ever increasing levels of debt,” said Edward Pinto, codirector of the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI’s) International Center on Housing Risk. “The five government credit agencies, particularly the FHA, continue to promote this vicious cycle.”

The NMRI for Agency refinance mortgages also gained on net over the last year, also standing at 12.7% in April, up from 11.1% a year earlier. AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk attributes the increase of the refinance NMRI to the influx of riskier no cash out refinance loans.

The NMRI composite of Agency purchase and refinance loans also came in at 12.7% in April (obviously), up from 11.9% a year earlier.

“Volume by count has increased for the past 32 months and is now 34% higher than 3 years ago. Thanks to rising debt burdens, it is simply not true that potential buyers are squeezed out of the market by rising prices,” said Tobias Peter, senior research analyst at AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk.

The NMRI measures how government-guaranteed loans with an origination in a given month would perform if subjected to the same stress as in the financial crisis that began in 2007. For example, an NMRI value of 10% indicates 10% of a given set of loans could be expected to default in a severely stress market. It is based on the actual performance of loans with the same risk characteristics after the financial crisis.

Other notable takeaways from the April NMRI include the following:

• Credit remains readily available for first-time buyers, as risk levels set new series’ highs in January. The first-time buyer NMRI stood at 16.2% in April, up 0.4 percentage point from a year earlier, and well above the Repeat Primary Homebuyer NMRI of 8.5%, down from a year earlier.

• Nonbanks continue to account for a rising share of the purchase market. The gap in riskiness between banks and nonbanks, which boosted overall risk due to high nonbank share, continues to widen.

• Fueled by solid job gains, low mortgage rates, and high and growing leverage, the national seller’s market is now in its 58th month.

The NMRI is published monthly utilizing a nearly complete census of loan-level data for loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), Veterans Administration (VA), and Rural Housing. The data from these same agencies are also used to track loan volume, as well as other indicators.

With the addition of the data for April 2017, the NMRI now covers over 27.4 million Agency loans dating back to September 2012. It’s comprised of over 12.7 million Agency purchase loans and over 14.7 million Agency refinance loans. The NMRI is published for purchase loans (with separate indices for first-time and repeat buyers), refinance loans (with separate indices for no-cash-out and cash-out refinance loans), and the composite of purchase and refinance loans.

The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) continued

People's Pundit Daily
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