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A woman pulls shopping carts through the aisle of a Target store in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

A woman pulls shopping carts through the aisle of a Target store in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. Census Bureau said retails sales in the U.S. continued to decline in June, falling 0.2% (±0.5 percent) to a total $473.5 billion. The latest report indicates consumer spending with have no help from retail sales regarding gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter (2Q).

The report missed the 0.1% median forecast, and declines were widespread.

Non-storeRetailers were up 9.2% (±1.8 percent) from June 2016, while Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores were down 8.9% (±2.1 percent) from last year.

The U.S. Census Bureau said retails sales

Welfare State Graphic

I will occasionally pontificate about a demographic crisis in the developed world, but I usually feel guilty afterwards. After all, how can it be a bad thing that we’re living longer? And what gives me the right to grouse about the number of children other families decide to have?

What I should be saying instead is that demographic changes are forcing us to recognize that we have a crisis of bad public policy. To be more specific, the entitlement state has become too large.

That’s the message I tried to get across in an interview earlier this week.

[brid video=”152046″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell The Demographic Crisis Is Really a Policy Crisis”]

At the risk of oversimplification, I basically stated that there are two crises in the world.

The first crisis, based in the industrialized world, is that tax-and-transfer welfare states were created back when there were lots of workers and relatively few old people, and most people assumed that demographic profile would always exist.

But now that the “population pyramid” is becoming a “population cylinder” (I was talking faster than I was thinking in the interview and reversed the two concepts at one point), there aren’t going to be enough workers to finance all the redistribution programs, particularly the ones that funnel money to the elderly.

This is a big reason why nations such as Greece and Italy already are in deep trouble and why it’s just a matter of time before the fiscal crisis spreads to France and Japan (and the United States if we don’t enact genuine entitlement reform).

Here’s a table, based on World Bank data, showing the 20 jurisdictions with the lowest fertility rates. Which means, of course, the places with the fewest future taxpayers to finance redistribution.

The second crisis, based in the developing world, is that pervasive statism suffocates growth.

And while I largely agree with the late Julian Simon about people being a resource rather than liability, if a nation has a bloated and intrusive public sector that stifles the private sector, then a growing population can be a bad thing.

But it’s not the growing population that’s bad, it’s the statist policies. Here’s a list of the 20 counties with the highest fertility rates. The majority of them are ranked in the “least free” quartile according to Economic Freedom of the World. And none of them are in the “most free” quartile.

But the most important part of the interview, at least when thinking about problems in the industrialized world, is when I pointed out that nations such as Singapore don’t face a big problem.

Yes, Singapore has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, but it also doesn’t have a pervasive tax-and-transfer welfare state. People are responsible for saving for their own retirement and healthcare. So the absence of future taxpayers isn’t a major challenge because the system doesn’t need to be propped up with tax revenue.

And the same thing is true in Hong Kong, another jurisdiction that is in good long-run shape even though the fertility rate is extremely low.

Demographic changes are forcing us to recognize

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) closed up 20.95 points, or 0.10% to reach a new record high of 21,553.09. The session marked the second straight day the Dow closed at record highs and the 24th record-breaking session since the election of President Donald J. Trump.

The Dow Jones has been up 8% over the last six months, the best first-half performance since 2013.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) closed up 4.58 points to 2,447.83, or 0.19%. It’s risen 8.2% over the last six months, also the best first-half performance since 2013.

The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) closed up 13.27 points, or 0.21% to 6,274.44. The 14.1% gain for the Nasdaq over the last since months marks the strongest performance since 2009, the year after the financial crisis came to an end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) closed

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, answers a question about health care as he holds a town hall meeting, Thursday, July 6, 2017, in Austin, Texas. (Photo: AP)

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, answers a question about health care as he holds a town hall meeting, Thursday, July 6, 2017, in Austin, Texas. (Photo: AP)

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said after Republicans met to discuss the new version of the Senate health care bill, he will vote “yes” in its current form. Republican reintroduced the ObamaCare replacement bill with the added Cruz Amendment, the Consumer Freedom Option.

“If this is the bill, I will support this bill,” Cruz told reporters Thursday after a meeting of GOP senators. “Now, if it’s amended and we lose the protections that lower premiums my view could well change.”

The proposed an amendment permits insurers to sell any policies they wish, so long as they also offer polices that cover a list of services required by ObamaCare.

Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is essentially a liberal Republican in name only, told reporters she is still not willing to support the bill.

“My strong inclination and current intention is to vote no on the motion to proceed,” she told reporters after leaving the briefing on Thursday. “The only way I’d change my mind is if there’s something in the new bill that wasn’t discussed or that I didn’t fully understand, or the estimate comes out and says they fixed the Medicaid cuts, which I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

The “estimate” Sen. Collins is referring to is the report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which has literally incorrectly scored every single entitlement they’ve attempted to analyze, including ObamaCare. She said if the bill fails, Republicans should work with Democrats to fix ObamaCare through a committee process, which would represent a major betrayal to Republican voters who have been promised repeal for 7 years.

“I have been involved in crafting very complicated legislation for a long time and my experience has been when you go through a committee process the bill gets vetted, you hear from experts, you get good ideas.”

On Monday, Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., confirmed he also backs the Cruz Amendment, though he hasn’t yet commented on the new version since the meeting. He was previously a “No” and has faced significant pressure from leftwing activists in his home state.

Two men were arrested at a health care protest in front of his Tucson office last week, one for allegedly threatening to kill Republicans.

Sen. Flake is seeking a second term in 2018 and already has a Republican primary challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward of Lake Havasu City.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who was involved in the crafting of the Consumer Freedom Option, hasn’t indicated whether he supporters the newer version, either. Prior to the meeting, he said he was “withholding judgment and look forward to reading it.”

Ted Cruz said he will support the

Attorney General Jeff Sessions, with Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, left, speaks about opioid addiction during a news conference, Thursday, July 13, 2017, at the Department of Justice in Washington. (Photo: AP)

Attorney General Jeff Sessions, with Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, left, speaks about opioid addiction during a news conference, Thursday, July 13, 2017, at the Department of Justice in Washington. (Photo: AP)

The Trump Administration on Thursday announced the biggest health care fraud bust in U.S. history, charging more than 400 defendants in federal 41 districts. The massive operation was a partnership between the DOJ’s Criminal Division, U.S. Attorney’s Offices, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)-OIG and Medicare Fraud Strike Force (MFSF).

In a joint press conference, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and HHS Secretary Tom Price said 412 were charged in health care fraud schemes amounting to roughly $1.3 billion in false billings, including 115 doctors, nurses and other licensed medical professionals.

“Too many trusted medical professionals like doctors, nurses, and pharmacists have chosen to violate their oaths and put greed ahead of their patients,” said Attorney General Sessions. “Amazingly, some have made their practices into multimillion dollar criminal enterprises. They seem oblivious to the disastrous consequences of their greed.”

The DOJ said the bust, which represents a major campaign promise kept by President Donald J. Trump to find and prosecute abuse, underscores “the enormity of the fraud” that plagues these government programs. It directly impacts the nation’s drug crisis, which currently claims the life of one American through overdose every 11 minutes.

“Their actions not only enrich themselves often at the expense of taxpayers but also feed addictions and cause addictions to start,” Attorney General Sessions added. “The consequences are real: emergency rooms, jail cells, futures lost, and graveyards.”

The operation also included the participation of the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), DCIS, and State Medicaid Fraud Control Units. In 2016, an estimated 59,000 Americans died from a drug overdose, and the abuse of prescription drugs.

“This is, quite simply, an epidemic,” DEA Acting Administrator Chuck Rosenberg said. “There is a great responsibility that goes along with handling controlled prescription drugs, and DEA and its partners remain absolutely committed to fighting the opioid epidemic using all the tools at our disposal.”

The Attorney General made it clear that the Trump Administration views the historic bust as the tip of the iceberg, vowing to make it a major and continued priority.

“While today is a historic day, the Department’s work is not finished. In fact, it is just beginning,” he said. “We will continue to find, arrest, prosecute, convict, and incarcerate fraudsters and drug dealers wherever they are.”

Of those charged, over 120 defendants, including doctors, were charged for their roles in prescribing and distributing opioids and other dangerous narcotics. More than 2 million Americans suffer from an addiction to prescription painkillers. The DOJ said 30 state Medicaid Fraud Control Units also participated in today’s arrests.

In addition, HHS has initiated suspension actions against 295 providers, including doctors, nurses and pharmacists.

“Health care fraud is not only a criminal act that costs billions of taxpayer dollars – it is an affront to all Americans who rely on our national healthcare programs for access to critical healthcare services and a violation of trust,” said Secretary Price. “The United States is home to the world’s best medical professionals, but their ability to provide affordable, high-quality care to their patients is jeopardized every time a criminal commits healthcare fraud.”

The charges also targeted schemes billing Medicare, Medicaid, and TRICARE for what the DOJ identified as medically unnecessary prescriptions, as well as compounded medications that were often or never purchased and/or received.

“Our enforcement actions underscore the commitment of the Defense Criminal Investigative Service and our partners to vigorously investigate fraud perpetrated against the DoD’s TRICARE Program,” said Kelly P. Mayo, the Deputy Director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). “We will continue to relentlessly investigate health care fraud, ensure the taxpayers’ health care dollars are properly spent, and endeavor to guarantee our service members, military retirees, and their dependents receive the high standard of care they deserve.”

TRICARE is a health insurance program for members and veterans of the armed forces and their families. But it is also riddled with fraud, waste and abuse, which drives up cost and reduces standards of care.

“That is why this Administration is committed to bringing these criminals to justice, as President Trump demonstrated in his 2017 budget request calling for a new $70 million investment in the Health Care Fraud and Abuse Control Program. The historic results of this year’s national takedown represent significant progress toward protecting the integrity and sustainability of Medicare and Medicaid, which we will continue to build upon in the years to come.”

The Trump Administration on Thursday announced the

Producer Price Index (PPI) Graphic

Producer Price Index (PPI) Graphic

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose slightly more than expected in June, though final demand for producer prices were just 0.1% higher. The Labor Department said the so-called core–excluding foods, energy, and trade services–gained 0.2% in June.

For the 12 months ended in June, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services gained 2.0%.

Prices for services gained 0.2% and the reading for trade services, which tracks the retail and wholesale sectors, fell by the same percentage. Food prices rose 0.6% following May’s 0.2% decline.

However, food was offset by a 0.5% decline in energy prices.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose slightly

Trader Peter Tuchman wears a “Dow 21,000” hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, March 1, 2017. (Photo: AP)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) closed up 123.07 points, or 0.57% to reach a new record high of 21,532.14.

The 30-Blue Chip stock index also notched an all-time intraday high.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) closed up 17.72 points to 2,443.25, or 0.73%. The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) closed up 67.87 points, or 1.10% to 6,261.17, with shares of Paypal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) hitting a record high.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday the U.S. central bank will start reducing its massive $4.5 trillion portfolio later this year. Rate hikes will come more gradual in the future. The Fed bolstered the portfolio, known as the balance sheet, as a way to stimulate the economy during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) closed

[brid video=”151802″ player=”2077″ title=”Tucker Carlson vs. Lt. Col. Peters on Russia Syria and Abu Bakr alBaghdadi”]

Tucker Carlson and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters debate U.S.-Russian relations, cooperation in Syria and the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. As People’s Pundit Daily reported, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims to have obtained “reliable information” confirming the ISIS leader is dead.

People’s Pundit Daily has not yet independently confirmed the claim.

Tucker Carlson and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters

File: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State (ISIS).

File: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State (ISIS).

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights obtained “reliable information” confirming Islamic State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead. People’s Pundit Daily has not yet independently confirmed the claim.

But first-line and second-line commanders in the Islamic State told the Syrian Observatory a meeting was called to appoint an “alternative successor.” The commander of Jaysh al-Sham and commander of Al-Raqqah State were asked to the meeting to choose a “Caliph successor of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as Caliphate of Muslims.”

On June 16, Russia claimed al-Baghdadi was killed in a strike conducted on May 28, 2017, which allegedly killed roughly 30 mid-level leaders and 300 militants. The Kremlin ministry also claimed they had information indicating the meeting was a leadership gathering to discuss withdrawing from Raqqa, the group’s self-proclaimed capital in Syria.

“We cannot confirm these reports at this time,” U.S. Army Col. Ryan Dillon said in response.

The Syrian Observatory said ISIS sources identified the place of death as a village near the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, located on the border with Iraq. However, they did not specify how al-Baghdadi died or whether he was killed by Russia or the U.S.-led coalition.

As reports indicated, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was injured in a previous bombing in the area. If true, his death comes after a May 5, 2017 report confirmed the death of other high-level ISIS leaders, including Abu Omar al-Shishani (Minister of War), Abu al-Haijaa al-Tunusi, Abu Osama al-Iraqi (a.k.a. Wali of Al-Baraka State), Amer al-Rafdan (a.k.a. Wali of al-Khair State), Abu Sayyaf, Abu Jandal al-Kuwaiti, Abu Sufyan al-Omrani and Abu Huthayfa al-Orduni.

The U.S. State Department had offered $25 million for information that leads to the location of al-Baghdadi, his arrest and conviction.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights obtained

People's Pundit Daily
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