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Elections

Republican Karen Handel gives a victory speech to supporters at a Hyatt Regency in Atlanta on Tuesday after winning the seat for the Georgia's 6th Congressional District. (Photo: AP)

Republican Karen Handel gives a victory speech to supporters at a Hyatt Regency in Atlanta on Tuesday after winning the seat for the Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. (Photo: AP)

Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, rounding out a 4 to 0 special election sweep. It was the last and most devastating defeat for Democrats after going all in on previous races in Kansas and Montana.

In truth, special elections haven’t served as strong indicators for midterm election outcomes. The margins this year have been tighter than they were in 2016, but Democrats are clearly more enthusiastic. So, despite California and New York funding Mr. Ossoff in the most expensive House race in history, they delivered a larger margin for Ms. Handel than they did for the President.

Worth noting, due to low turnout in South Carolina, Ms. Handel won by a larger margin than Ralph Norman, which was much closer than expected. Had the spotlight been on Archie Parnell, he certainly would not have run as strong.

Any decent pollster or person attending Ms. Handel’s victory night party would know that supporters did view the race as a referendum on President Donald J. Trump. That was the media narrative and it backfired in their faces. Voters, largely Republicans and independents, are on to their game. For those of you who still think they aren’t playing a game, a picture is worth a thousand words.

CNN panel stunning and visibly angry/depressed over Karen Handel defeating Jon Ossoff in Georgia's 6th Congressional District.

CNN panel visibly stunned/angry/depressed over Karen Handel defeating Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

It’s also entirely possible that Democrats’ fortunes improve by taking the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, two states where the fundamentals are clearly in their favor. Then, no one will be talking about the predictive value of special elections, which we have long argued is overblown.

But there are some data tidbits worth highlighting.

Georgia’s 6th Congressional District is often referred to as a “reliably Republican” seat, or some other variance. That’s just not true anymore. In 2016, President Trump carried it by less than two points while Tom Price, now serving as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, took it by 23 points.

Republicans have held the seat for decades, but it’s one of the fastest growing districts in the country and–together with redistricting efforts by Democrats–has been changing for quite a while. Secretary Price’s victory is a testament to the power of the incumbency, the Establishment and name-recognition. It wasn’t a reflection of the partisan voting index, which has been steadily dropping since 2010.

The three counties can be broken down like this.

DeKalb County, the smallest in the district with 101,421 registered voters, is a growing Democratic stronghold. Republicans continue to pluck off precincts in the northern region of the country, but the further South you go the more Blue it gets. It went for Mr. Ossoff 58.44% to 41.56%.

Cobb County remains a Republican stronghold with the exception of some Democratic holdout precincts in the West. With 129,570 registered voters, it is the middle-sized county in the district. It went for Handel 58.15% to 41.85%.

Fulton County, with 216,835 registered voters, is the largest and most swingy in the district. With large margins in the northern and western precincts, Handel carried it with 52.72% of the vote to 47.28%. She was leading when the first early votes were tallied, leaving Mr. Ossoff and Democrats hoping she cannibalized her vote.

She did not, which brings us to the big picture.

Fulton is one of the many, growing number of counties in America were Democrats cannot reach 50%. Democratic strategists know how big of a problem this has become and their clients know it. While this does have an impact on races for the Presidential of the United States and U.S. Senate, it’s really an issue when we are talking about the party’s chances of taking back the House of Representatives.

Democrats, like Republicans, Cannot Win on Anger Alone

When Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama, taking House and Senate seats down with him, Republicans didn’t make up conspiracy theories and gin up unfounded hatred and anger. They conducted a serious autopsy and came to the conclusion that simply opposing Mr. Obama or ObamaCare wasn’t enough.

More importantly, they allowed republicanism to play out in the form of a contest between 17 talented presidential candidates.

Democrats refused to confront their internal contradictions, refuse to hold fair primary elections, refuse to discuss issues that Americans care about and refuse to offer solutions to those issues. The voices of those who are at least on the right track are being shut out of the national debate and media spotlight.

President Trump may have tapped into “anger” across the country, but that anger was always bipartisan and rational. Just because the media didn’t cover his message or understand it, doesn’t mean he didn’t have one. He gave voters “a voice” and promised to drain the swamp (Very Important).

In response, Democrats concocted wild conspiracy theories to whip up partisan and irrational anger. It affirmed only that their party is filled with swamp creatures who aren’t at all interested in making people’s lives better.

Anger alone just isn’t enough to win.

Here are the big takeaways from the

Elections

Republican Karen Handel campaigns for the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District special election. In this photo, Handel talks to supporters during a campaign stop at Santino’s Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria in Alpharetta, Georgia. (Photo: Reuters)

Republican Karen Handel campaigns for the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District special election. In this photo, Handel talks to supporters during a campaign stop at Santino’s Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria in Alpharetta, Georgia. (Photo: Reuters)

People’s Pundit Daily projects Republican Karen Handel has won the special election for the 6th Congressional District in Georgia, defeating Democrat Jon Ossoff. The contest was to fill the seat vacated by Tom Price, who now serves as the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in the Trump Administration.

The recently redrawn district includes the Atlanta suburbs and is one of the fastest growing districts in America. Typically Republican-leaning, it includes Fulton County, DeKalb County and Cobb County. Mr. Price overwhelmingly won reelection in November while President Donald Trump struggled to win over more wealthy voters.

“This is a devastating defeat for Democrats, who have lost more than a thousand offices nationwide since Barack Obama was first elected president,” said People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) editor-in-chief Richard D. Baris, who heads up polling and election forecasts. “There are no moral victories. No one single race in 2018 will receive so much attention and no Democrat running in a wealthy target district will receive so much financial help from D.C. Democrats and national donors.”

It was the most expensive election for the House, ever. In only a few months, far less than a typical campaign, candidates and outside groups spent roughly $55 million.

That’s nearly double the money spent in the second most expensive contest that took place in Florida in 2012. The campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans raised roughly $28 million, with Democrat Jon Ossoff raising $23.6 million and Republican Karen Handel raising just $4.5 million.

Democratic Jon Ossoff speaks to supporters during election night in the first round of voting for the special election in the 6th Congressional District on April 18, 2017. (Photo: AP)

Handel, the former secretary of state in Georgia, successfully and accurately cast her bid as a battle against outside forces trying to “buy” the 6th Congressional District.

“[Voters] are not interested in Hollywood and California coming in and buying this seat,” Mrs. Handel, the former state secretary said. “We cannot let up. There is too much at stake.”

Individual donations are only revealed when campaign finance filings “itemized” each of their contributions, mostly for those who gave at least $200.00.

Campaign finance filings show only 14% of individual donations to Democrat Jon Ossoff totaling $8 million came from Georgia. The vast majority were from large liberal states like as New York and California. That compares to his Republicans opponent, who raised $2.1 million and received 56% of her individual contributions from Georgia.

With nearly 80% of the precincts reporting, Handel led Ossoff by 5 points, 52.5% to 47.5%. If it was a devastating loss to Democrats, it was yet another devastating loss to pollsters. Only Trafalger Group had Handel winning the race (by a two-point margin), and some pollsters had her down by as much as 7 points.

Democrats have thus far targeted all four special elections this year–including previous contests in Kansas and Montana. While they improved their margins over Hillary Clinton in each, they have lost them all.

UPDATE

“A special thanks to the President of the United States of America,” Mrs. Handel said in her victory speech.

The crowd chanted “Trump! Trump! Trump!” in response.

Candidate Percent Votes
Karen Handel (Republican)  52.5% 116,981
Jon Ossoff (Democratic)  47.5% 105,879
222,860 Total Votes

PPD projects Republican Karen Handel has won

Elections

Republican Ralph Norman, left, and Democrat Archie Parnell, right, candidates in the South Carolina special election for the 5th Congressional District.

Republican Ralph Norman, left, and Democrat Archie Parnell, right, candidates in the South Carolina special election for the 5th Congressional District.

Republican Ralph Norman has won the special election for the 5th Congressional District in South Carolina, defeating Democrat Archie Parnell. The contest was for the seat vacated by Mick Mulvaney, who now serves as the Director for the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the Trump Administration.

Mr. Parnell ran a particularly strong race, far outperforming Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. However, with all eyes on the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, turnout was low.

“This race had low interest and low turnout,” said People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) editor-in-chief Richard D. Baris, who heads up polling and election forecasts. “Democrats may have a lot of regrets in the morning and there is probably going to be a lot of finger pointing. But it’s likely because this race was under the radar that Mr. Parnell did as well as he did.”

Vote As of Call Made by People’s Pundit Daily:

Candidate Percent Votes
Ralph Norman (Republican)  51.2% 42,798
Archie Parnell (Democratic)  47.8% 40,021
Josh Thornton (American)  0.4% 307
Victor Kocher (Libertarian)  0.3% 256
David Kulma (Green)  0.3% 230
Write In (Unaffiliated)  0.1% 58
83,670 Total Votes

Vote As of 99% of Precincts Reporting:

Candidate Percent Votes
Ralph Norman (Republican)  51.2% 44,312
Archie Parnell (Democratic)  47.8% 41,404
Josh Thornton (American)  0.4% 317
Victor Kocher (Libertarian)  0.3% 269
David Kulma (Green)  0.3% 237
Write In (Unaffiliated)  0.1% 64
86,603 Total Votes

PPD projects Republican Ralph Norman has won

World

Photo: @remybonnaffe

Photo: Witness @remybonnaffe

A suspect wearing an explosive belt shouting “Allahu Akbar” was shot and the central train station in the Belgian capital of Brussels was evacuated Tuesday. An explosion was reported and police neutralized the suspect, according to local media reports.

Peter Dewael, a spokesman for the Federal Police, told VTM News soldiers at the train station opened fire on the man but the situation now is “under control.”

Rémy Bonnaffé, a witness to the attack, told Fox News he heard two loud bangs at the station, with the first bang taking place while everyone was still at the boarding platform. The second bang took place and everyone then hid.

Bonnaffé told Fox News he then ran across the street to the Hilton and heard two noises that sounded like gun shots. He took a photo which shows an object on fire, which he thought was a suitcase that could have been the thing that exploded.

Belgium, a frequent target of Islamic terrorism and home to enclaves of radicalism, has been on high alert since suicide bombers killed 32 people on the Brussels subway and at an airport on March 22, 2016.

A suspect wearing an explosive belt shouting

Science

NASA’s Kepler space telescope team has identified 219 new planet candidates, 10 of which are near-Earth size and in the habitable zone of their star. (Photo Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech)

NASA’s Kepler space telescope team has identified 219 new planet candidates, 10 of which are near-Earth size and in the habitable zone of their star. (Photo Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech)

The NASA Kepler space telescope team released a mission catalog including 10 near-Earth size planets orbiting within their star’s habitable zone, or Goldilocks Zone. The planet candidates were introduced with 209 others, but those are located far enough from a star where liquid water could pool on the surface of a rocky planet.

“The Kepler data set is unique, as it is the only one containing a population of these near Earth-analogs – planets with roughly the same size and orbit as Earth,” said Mario Perez, Kepler program scientist in the Astrophysics Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. “Understanding their frequency in the galaxy will help inform the design of future NASA missions to directly image another Earth.”

The findings were presented at a news conference Monday at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California’s Silicon Valley. The Kepler space telescope searches the sky for planets by detecting a “minuscule” dimming in a star’s brightness that occurs when a planet crosses in front of it, which is known as a transit.

NASA's Kepler space telescope was the first agency mission capable of detecting Earth-size planets using the transit method, a photometric technique that measures the minuscule dimming of starlight as a planet passes in front of its host star. For the first four years of its primary mission, the space telescope observed a set starfield located in the constellation Cygnus (left). New results released from Kepler data June 19, 2017, have implications for understanding the frequency of different types of planets in our galaxy and the way planets are formed. Since 2014, Kepler has been collecting data on its second mission, observing fields on the plane of the ecliptic of our galaxy (right). (Photo Credit: NASA/Wendy Stenzel)

NASA’s Kepler space telescope was the first agency mission capable of detecting Earth-size planets using the transit method, a photometric technique that measures the minuscule dimming of starlight as a planet passes in front of its host star. For the first four years of its primary mission, the space telescope observed a set starfield located in the constellation Cygnus (left). New results released from Kepler data June 19, 2017, have implications for understanding the frequency of different types of planets in our galaxy and the way planets are formed. Since 2014, Kepler has been collecting data on its second mission, observing fields on the plane of the ecliptic of our galaxy (right). (Photo Credit: NASA/Wendy Stenzel)

In February, NASA also announced the discovery of 7 Earth-like planets orbiting a star some 40 light years away, including 3 planets in the Goldilocks zone. The zone refers to a “not too hot, not too cold” distance planets orbit from their star making them potentially habitable environments for life.

“This carefully-measured catalog is the foundation for directly answering one of astronomy’s most compelling questions – how many planets like our Earth are in the galaxy?” said Susan Thompson, Kepler research scientist for the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California, and lead author of the catalog study.

Interestingly, a research group at the W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii using data collected by Kepler was able to take precise measurements of thousands of planets, which discovered two groups of small planets. The team found a clear grouping in the sizes of Earth-size rocky planets and gaseous planets smaller than Neptune. Few planets were found between those groupings.

The group precisely measured the sizes of 1,300 stars in the Kepler field of view to determine the radii of 2,000 Kepler planets.

“We like to think of this study as classifying planets in the same way that biologists identify new species of animals,” said Benjamin Fulton, doctoral candidate at the University of Hawaii in Manoa, and lead author of the second study. “Finding two distinct groups of exoplanets is like discovering mammals and lizards make up distinct branches of a family tree.”

NASA's Kepler space telescope team released a

Elections

Candidates in Georgia's 6th Congressional District race Republican Karen Handel, left, and Democrat Jon Ossoff debate on Tuesday, June 6, 2017, in Atlanta. The two meet in a June 20 special election. (Photo: Reuters)

Candidates in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District race Republican Karen Handel, left, and Democrat Jon Ossoff debate on Tuesday, June 6, 2017, in Atlanta. The two meet in a June 20 special election. (Photo: Reuters)

The special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by Tom Price is the most expensive election for the House, ever. In only a few months, far less than a typical campaign, candidates and outside groups spent roughly $55 million.

That’s nearly double the money spent in the second most expensive contest that took place in Florida in 2012. The campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans raised roughly $28 million, with Democrat Jon Ossoff raising $23.6 million and Republican Karen Handel raising just $4.5 million.

The Republican has cast her bid as a battle against outside forces trying to “buy” the 6th Congressional District.

“[Voters] are not interested in Hollywood and California coming in and buying this seat,” Mrs. Handel, the former state secretary said. “We cannot let up. There is too much at stake.”

Individual donations are only revealed when campaign finance filings “itemized” each of their contributions, mostly for those who gave at least $200.00.

Campaign finance filings show only 14% of individual donations to Democrat Jon Ossoff totaling $8 million came from Georgia. The vast majority were from large liberal states like as New York and California. That compares to his Republicans opponent, who raised $2.1 million and received 56% of her individual contributions from Georgia.

Still, both are far below the average for an open-seat House election tallied for 2016. The median for 2016 was 82% in races where candidates raised at least $100,000.

Republicans ramped up their outside spending after the first round of voting in April, including support from party committees and super PACs. Overall, these groups spent more than $25 million on the race advocating against the other party’s candidate, including roughly $18.2 million for Mrs. Handel and $7.6 million for Mr. Ossoff.

Worth noting, these groups do not receive majority support from in-state donors.

[caption id="attachment_55509" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Candidates in Georgia's

Elections

(Editor’s Note: This article will be updated throughout the day to include more recent data and information.)

Candidates in Georgia's 6th Congressional District race Republican Karen Handel, left, and Democrat Jon Ossoff prepare to debate Tuesday, June 6, 2017, in Atlanta. The two meet in a June 20 special election. (Photo: AP)

Candidates in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District race Republican Karen Handel, left, and Democrat Jon Ossoff prepare to debate Tuesday, June 6, 2017, in Atlanta. The two meet in a June 20 special election. (Photo: AP)

On Tuesday, voters in the 6th Congressional District will decide the winner of the Georgia Special Election runoff and the person who will replace Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Tom Price.

Republican Karen Handel enjoys a built-in Republican advantage in the conservative-leaning district, which President Donald J. Trump carried by less than 2 points. Democrat Jon Ossoff is hoping charisma and financial support from D.C. Democrats can capitalize on the president’s weakness in the district, which saw the most expensive congressional campaign in history.

Here’s what you need to know.

District

The recently redrawn district includes the Atlanta suburbs and is one of the fastest growing districts in America. Typically Republican-leaning, it includes Fulton County, DeKalb County and Cobb County. Mr. Price overwhelmingly won reelection in November while President Trump struggled to win over more wealthy voters. Mediates tend to focus on those voters and miss the importance of the impact from redrawing the district.

Early Vote

Almost 150,000 voters have already cast their ballots in early voting, which is roughly three times more than the round one early vote in April. Overall, only 193,000 ballots were cast and Ossoff failed to reach the 50-percent threshold to avoid the runoff (48%).

Nearly 40,000 people who have voted early in the runoff did not vote during round one in April, which is misleading at best. From the March 20 “new registration” deadline since the runoff, almost 8,000 new eligible voters have been added.

But since the ruling enabled voters to register until mid-May–which was announced on the May 4–the number was just over 2,000. If it turns out that Ossoff ekes by with a small-margin win, there will definitely be a case to be made that these new local registration efforts were pivotal.

The early vote is much more Republican than it was in the first round and Handel, according to estimates built on polling data models, would only need about 84,500 more voters to show up on Election Day.

Regardless, do not read too much in to the early vote results too early. We will need to see what the Election Day vote looks like–ie. region, size, margins etc.–before we will truly be able to get a beat on a potential winner.

Be Patient

Georgia is notoriously slow to report returns, especially in the most-Democrat-friendly Fulton County. That was evident on Election Day in the first round of voting. Even without the “rare data error from one of the cards” in Fulton County, precincts were still slow to report.

We anticipate that early vote returns will start sometime during the 45 minutes after polls close.

Polling

Most public polls gave Ossoff the edge up in a very close race until last week, when both public and private polling began to turn on him. On Monday, polling that gave Ossoff a not-so insignificant lead now showed a tied race. Trafalger, which also had Handel trailing, released its final poll as well. Handel was up by 2 points, with a large lead among older voters, who are participating in the runoff in far greater numbers than the first round.

Worth noting, Trafalger, which along with PPD accurately predicted President Trump’s Electoral College victory state-by-state, showed Republicans coming home after the shooting of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise.

“There is no doubt in my mind that the shooting at the GOP Congressional Baseball practice has had an impact, but I don’t see that it is the impact that most pundits expect,” TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said. “This tragedy and the attempt to place the blame on right-wing rhetoric has actually served to motivate frustrated Republicans who were considering sitting the election out or voting for Ossoff.”

Impact on 2018

We remained unconvinced that an Ossoff win translates into the House GOP majority being in danger. No one single race will receive so much attention and no Democrat running in a wealthy target district will receive so much financial help from D.C. Democrats and national donors.

There is also no room for moral victories, with Democrats hyping expectations in Kansas and Montana special elections only to come up short on Election Day. Even a small Handel win would be devastating to Democratic morale, while an Ossoff win will no doubt give the anti-Trump left bragging rights. Fair or not, it will be regurgitated not just in the following 24-hour news cycle, but throughout the months leading up to the 2018 midterm elections.

On Tuesday, voters will decide the victor

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus Executive Committee at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., March 22, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus Executive Committee at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., March 22, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald J. Trump on Tuesday responded again to the death of Otto Warmbier, the 22-year-old U.S. college student recently released from North Korea. The President called his untimely death at the hands of the leftwing regime “a disgrace” and took a not-so veiled shot at his predecessor’s administration.

“What happened to Otto was a disgrace,” President Trump said in response to a reporter’s question. “He should’ve been brought home a long time ago.”

Otto Warmbier, a student at the University of Virginia, was held by the North Koreans for 17 months, spending most of that time in a coma. He was serving as 15-year hard labor prison term after he was accused and confessed to “a crime “pursuant to the U.S. government’s hostile policy toward (the North), in a bid to impair the unity of its people after entering it as a tourist.”

As has been reported, Otto Warmbier’s imprisonment simply was not a priority for Barack Obama and his administration, including former secretary of state John Kerry. The Warmbier family had less than flattering things to say about the former president.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said “at the direction of the president” the department secured his release of Warmbier, which came as Dennis Rodman once again visited Pyongyang. But it was too late.

“On behalf of the entire State Department and the United States government, I extend my condolences to the Warmbier family, and offer my prayers as they enter a time of grief no parent should ever know,” Secretary Tillerson said. “We hold North Korea accountable for Otto Warmbier’s unjust imprisonment, and demand the release of three other Americans who have been illegally detained.”

Doctors from the University of Cincinnati Medical Center said last week that Warmbier was suffering from injuries related to cardiopulmonary arrest.

During the state of unresponsive wakefulness, scans showed extensive loss in all regions of Warmbier’s brain. He died on Monday.

“It is our sad duty to report that our son, Otto, has completed his journey home,” the Warmbier family said in a statement released from the hospital in Cincinnati, Ohio. “Surrounded by his loving family, Otto died today at 2:20 am.”

President Trump, visibly upset about the death of the young college student, vowed to “handle” the leftwing regime in Pyongyang.

President Donald J. Trump on Tuesday responded

World

Parading a drone in Iran. (Photo: Reuters)

Parading a drone in Iran. (Photo: Reuters)

A U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle shot down an armed Iranian-built Shaheed-129 UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) advancing on coalition forces in Syria. This is the second the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone in less than a month.

The incident occurred at about 12:30 a.m. as coalition forces at an established combat outpost northeast of At Tanf where they are training and advising partner ground forces in the fight against ISIS. It’s also the same location where another pro-Assad UAV dropped munitions near coalition forces before it was shot down on June 8.

The F-15E Strike Eagle went after the armed Iranian drone as it was observing and advancing on the coalition force’s position. It continued to advance on the coalition’s position without diverting its course and the decision was made to shoot it down.

On Sunday, an F-18 Super Hornet shown down a Russian-built Syrian SU-22, prompting the Russians to threaten to target U.S.-led coalition planes west of the Euphrates River in Syria.

A U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle shot down an armed

World

Russian air force Su-27 jet fighters perform at an air show outside Moscow in 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

Russian air force Su-27 jet fighters perform at an air show outside Moscow in 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

An Russian Su-27 jet armed with air-to-air missiles “rapidly” approached a U.S. Air Force RC-135 recon jet over the Baltic Sea, coming within five feet. The close call comes after an F-18 Super Hornet shown down a SU-22 Sunday, prompting the Russians to threaten to target U.S.-led coalition planes west of the Euphrates River in Syria.

But it wasn’t the first time this has happened in the region.

There have been no less than 35 such interactions since June 2nd in the Baltic Sea region, but the incident Monday morning is notable because the U.S. Pentagon considered it “unsafe.”

An Russian Su-27 jet armed with air-to-air

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