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A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

A house-for-sale sign is seen inside the Washington DC Beltway in Annandale, Virginia January 24, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) covering 20 metropolitan cities shot up 0.9% in March, topping the median consensus of 0.8%. The latest data follows strong housing demand of 0.7% two reports ago, making the year-on-year rate heading to 6%.

“Home prices continue rising with the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index up 5.8% in the year ended March, the fastest pace in almost three years,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While there is some regional variation, prices are rising across the U.S. Half of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller indices rose more than 6% from March 2016 to March 2017. The smallest gainof 4.1%, in New York, was roughly double the rate of inflation.”

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas led the way among 20 cities with the highest year-over-year gains. In March, Seattle led the pack with a 12.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland at 9.2% and Dallas with an 8.6% increase. Ten cities reported higher price gains during the year ending March 2017 juxtaposed to the year ending February 2017.

Worth noting, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) is already over 6%, but the consensus for March’s 20-city index, despite a sizable monthly gain, calls for a 0.1% tickdown to 5.8%.

“Sales of both new and existing homes,housing starts and the National Association of Home Builders’sentiment index are all trending higher. Over the last year, analysts suggested that one factor pushing prices higher was the unusually low inventory of homes for sale,” Mr. Blitzer said. “People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up. If mortgage rates, currently near 4%, rise further,this could determore people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices. While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”

TheS&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) tracks monthly the value of residential homes in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and regional indexes measure fluctuations in existing home prices and are based on re-sales of single-family homes.

The expanded 20-city measure replaced the original 10-city series, which is still available. A national index is published quarterly.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index

People count money at Macy's Herald Square store during the early opening of the Black Friday sales in the Manhattan borough of New York, November 26, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

People count money at Macy’s Herald Square store during the early opening of the Black Friday sales in the Manhattan borough of New York, November 26, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that consumer spending in April grew at the fastest pace in four months, fueled by a solid gain in personal income. The strong data add greater optimisim to expectations that the economy is poised to rebound after a lackluster start to the year.

Personal consumption, otherwise known as onsumer spending, rose by $53.2 billion (0.4%) in April after a 0.3% rise in March. That’s the best gain since December. Personal income, fueled by gains in private wages and salaries, rose by $58.4 billion, or 0.4% in April.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, grew at the slowest pace in seven years in the first quarter (1Q), weighing down gross domestic product (GDP). The economy expanded at a revised 1.2% rate at the start of the year in the 1Q, up from an initial reading of just 0.7%. Business investment and consumer spending levels were higher than previous estimates.

Economists are optomisitic that GDP growth will rebound in the current quarter, shooting up to roughly 3% during April-June.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that consumer

Barack Obama, left, and Ronald Reagan, right.

Barack Obama, left, and Ronald Reagan, right.

Every time I’ve gone overseas in the past six months, I’ve been peppered with questions about Donald Trump. It doesn’t matter whether my speech was about tax reformentitlementsfiscal crisis, or tax competition, most people wanted to know what I think about The Donald.

My general reaction has been to disavow any expertise, as illustrated by my wildly inaccurate election prediction. But, when pressed, I speculate that Hillary Clinton wasn’t a very attractive candidate and that Trump managed to tap into disdain for Washington (i.e., drain the swamp) and angst about the economy’s sub-par performance.

What I find galling, though, is when I get follow-up questions – and this happens a lot, especially in Europe – asking how it is possible that the United States could somehow go from electing a wonderful visionary like Obama to electing a dangerous clown like Trump.

Since I’m not a big Trump fan, I don’t particularly care how they characterize the current president, but I’m mystified about the ongoing Obama worship in other nations. Even among folks who otherwise are sympathetic to free markets.

I’ve generally responded by explaining that Obama was a statist who wound up decimating the Democratic Party.

And my favorite factoid has been the 2013 poll showing that Reagan would have trounced Obama in a hypothetical matchup.

I especially like sharing that data since many foreigners think Reagan wasn’t a successful President. So when I share that polling data, it also gives me an opportunity to set the record straight about the success of Reaganomics.

I’m motivated to write about this topic because I’m currently in Europe and earlier today I wound up having one of these conversations in the Frankfurt Airport with a German who noticed my accent and asked me about “crazy American politics.”

I had no problem admitting that the political situation in the U.S. is somewhat surreal, so that was a bonding moment. But as the conversation progressed and I started to give my standard explanation about Obama being a dismal president and I shared the 2013 poll, my German friend didn’t believe me.

So I felt motivated to quickly go online and find some additional data to augment my argument. And I was very happy to find a Quinnipiac poll from 2014. Here are some of the highlights, as reported by USA Today.

…33% named Obama the worst president since World War II, and 28% put Bush at the bottom of post-war presidents. “Over the span of 69 years of American history and 12 presidencies, President Barack Obama finds himself with President George W. Bush at the bottom of the popularity barrel,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. …Ronald Reagan topped the poll as the best president since World War II, with 35%. He is followed by presidents Bill Clinton (18%) and John F. Kennedy (15%).

Yes, Ronald Reagan easily was considered the best President in the post-World War II era.

Here’s the relevant chart from the story. Kudos to the American people from giving the Gipper high scores.

And what about the bottom of the list?

Here’s the chart showing Obama edging out George W. Bush for last place.

By the way, I suspect these numbers will look much different in 50 years. I’m guessing many Republicans picked Obama simply because he was the most recent Democrat president and a lot of Democrats picked W because he was the most recent Republican President.

With the passage of time, I think Nixon and Carter deservedly will get some of those votes, and I think LBJ deserves more votes as the worst president, for what it’s worth.

The bottom line, though, is that I now have a second poll to share with foreigners.

CATO economist Dan Mitchell explains to foreigners

Memorial Day

More Americans than ever will honor Memorial Day, a federally-recognized national holiday for military personnel who have given their lives for our country.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds 49% of American adults view Memorial Day as one of the nation’s most important holidays, a gain from 44% a year ago. That marks a new high, topping the previous high of 46% in 2007 when the Iraq War was at its peak.

Only four percent (4%) describe Memorial Day as one of our nation’s least important holidays, while 45% see it as somewhere in between.

Worth noting, a study by Oxford found a strong relationship between Republican leadership and increased patriotism. Those views can have a long-lasting impact on voter preference.

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on May 25 and 28, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

More Americans than ever will honor Memorial

Aftermath of attack on buses and truck carrying Coptic Christians in Minya Province, Egypt, May 26, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Aftermath of attack on buses and truck carrying Coptic Christians in Minya Province, Egypt, May 26, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for masked gunmen opening fire and killing 26 Coptic Christians traveling on a bus en route to a nearby monastery.

The men stopped the bus and other vehicles in southern Egypt outside of Cairo, also injuring 25. ISIS said its fighters were responsible for the attack that took place on Friday, Sky News reported.

Coptic Christians, who make up only 10% of the population now, have been repeatedly targeted by Islamic terrorists. While some estimates vary, they were once roughly 23% of the 93 million-strong population in the country and their church dates back nearly 2,000 years.

The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for

US President Donald Trump signs an executive order on Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy after signing it in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, April 28, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

US President Donald Trump signs an executive order on Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy after signing it in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, April 28, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

In this interview with Dana Loesch, I make several points about the Trump budget, including the need to reform means-tested entitlements and ObamaCare (with a caveat from my Second Theorem of government), as well as some comments on foreign aid and fake budget cuts.

But those are arguments that I make all the time. Today, I want to call attention to the mid-point of the interview when I explain that President Trump is actually in a strong position to get a win, notwithstanding all the rhetoric about his budget being “dead on arrival.”

Simply stated, while he can’t force Congress to enact a bill that reforms entitlements, his veto power means he can stop Congress from appropriating more money that he wants to spend.

But if he wants to win that battle, he needs to be willing to allow a partial government shutdown.

Which he wasn’t willing to let happen when he approved a bad deal a few weeks ago to fund the government for the rest of the 2017 fiscal year.

But we have some good news. He may have learned from that mistake, at least if we take this tweet seriously.

Amen. Trump should be firm and explicitly warn Congress that he will veto any appropriations bill that spends one penny above what he requested in his budget.

And if Congress doesn’t comply, he should use his veto pen and we’ll have a partial shutdown, which basically effects the “non-essential” parts of the federal government that presumably shouldn’t be funded anyhow.

The only way Trump loses that fight is if enough Republicans join with Democrats to override his veto. But that’s unlikely since it is mostly Democrat constituencies (government bureaucrats and other recipients of taxpayer money) who feel the pinch if there’s a partial shutdown.

This is a big reason why, as we saw during the Clinton years, it’s Democrats who begin to cave so long as Republicans don’t preemptively surrender.

The bottom line is that being tough on the budget isn’t just good policy. As Ronald Reagan demonstrated, there are political rewards when you shrink the burden of government and enable faster growth.

CATO economist Dan Mitchell explains an effective

Pedestrians walk through the Canary Wharf financial district of London January 16, 2009. (Photo: Reuters)

Pedestrians walk through the Canary Wharf financial district of London January 16, 2009. (Photo: Reuters)

What’s the best argument for reducing the onerous 35 percent corporate tax rate in the United States?

  • 1. Should the rate be lowered because it’s embarrassing that America has the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world, and perhaps the entire world? That’s certainly a persuasive reason for a lower rate.
  • 2. Should the rate be lowered because workers will have more jobs and higher pay when companies invest more? That should be a very compelling argument to slash the rate as much as possible.
  • 3. Should the rate be lowered so companies no longer will have a big incentive to “invert” to other countries? That’s probably a strong argument for some people, but not for me since I’ve never objected to inversions.
  • 4. Should the rate be lowered to mitigate the anti-competitive impact of America’s worldwide tax system? Sure, that would help, but I would prefer to directly solve the problem by shifting to territorial taxation.
  • 5. Should the rate be lowered so companies have more incentive to focus on earning money and less incentive to utilize corrupt tax breaksThat would be a win-win outcomefor the American economy.
  • 6. Should the rate be lowered because the corporate tax is actually a levy on workers, consumers, and shareholders? It is silly that we pretend to tax companies when the ultimate tax is paid by individuals.
  • 7. Should the rate be lowered to reduce the bias for debt? A lower rate would mitigate that problem, though it would be better to directly solve the problem by getting rid of the double tax on dividends.
  • 8. Should the rate be lowered to reduce the amount of money going to Washington? I’m in favor of “starving the beast,” but a lower corporate rate may not be effective because there will be considerable revenue feedback.

These are all good reasons to dramatically lower the corporate tax rate, hopefully down to the 15-percent rate in Trump’s plan, but the House proposal for a 20-percent rate wouldn’t be a bad final outcome.

But there’s a 9th reason that is very emotionally appealing to me.

  • 9. Should the rate be lowered to trigger a new round of tax competition, even though that will make politicians unhappy? Actually, the fact that politicians will be unhappy is a feature rather than a bug.

I’ve shared lots of examples showing how jurisdictional competition leads to better tax policy.

Simply stated, politicians are less greedy when they have to worry that the geese with the golden eggs can fly away.

And the mere prospect that the United States will improve its tax system is already reverberating around the world.

The German media is reporting, for instance, that the government is concerned that a lower corporate rate in America will force similar changes elsewhere.

The German government is worried the world is slipping into a ruinous era of tax competition in which countries lure companies with ever-more generous tax rules to the detriment of public budgets. …Mr. Trump’s “America First” policy has committed his administration to slashing the US’s effective corporate tax rate to 22 from 37 percent. In Europe, the UK, Ireland, and Hungary have announced new or rejigged initiatives to lower corporate tax payments. Germany doesn’t want to lower its corporate-tax rate (from an effective 28.2 percent)… Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, …left the recent meeting of G7 finance ministers worried by new signs of growing beggar-thy-neighbor rivalry among governments.

A “ruinous era of tax competition” and a “beggar-thy-neighbor rivalry among governments”?

That’s music to my ears!

I”d much rather have “competition” and “rivalry” instead of an “OPEC for politicians,” which is what occurs when governments impose “harmonization” policies.

The Germans aren’t the only ones to be worried. The Wall Street Journal observes that China’s government is also nervous about the prospect of a big reduction in America’s corporate tax burden.

China’s leaders fear the plan will lure manufacturing to the U.S. Forget a trade war, Beijing says a cut in the U.S. corporate rate to 15% from 35% would mean “tax war.” The People’s Daily warned Friday in a commentary that if Mr. Trump succeeds, “some powerful countries may join the game to launch competitive tax cuts,” citing similar proposals in the U.K. and France. …Beijing knows from experience how important tax rates are to economic competitiveness. …China’s double-digit growth streak began in the mid-1990s after government revenue as a share of GDP declined to 11% in 1995 from 31% in 1978—effectively a supply-side tax cut. But then taxes began to rise again…and the tax man’s take now stands at 22%. …Chinese companies have started to complain that the high burden is killing profits. …President Xi Jinping began to address the problem about 18 months ago when he launched “supply-side reforms” to cut corporate taxes and regulation. …the program’s stated goal of restoring lost competitiveness shows that Beijing understands the importance of corporate tax rates to growth and prefers not to have to compete in a “tax war.”

Amen.

Let’s have a “tax war.” Folks on the left fret that this creates a “race to the bottom,” but that’s because they favor big government and think our incomes belong to the state.

As far as I’m concerned a “tax war” is desirable because that means politicians are fighting each other and every bullet they fire (i.e., every tax they cut) is good news for the global economy.

Now that I’ve shared some good news, I’ll close with potential bad news. I’m worried that the overall tax reform agenda faces a grim future, mostly because Trump won’t address old-age entitlements and also because House GOPers have embraced a misguided border-adjustment tax.

Which is why, when the dust settles, I’ll be happy if all we get a big reduction in the corporate rate.

What’s the best argument for reducing the

Gregg Allman, depicted here, performing "Melissa," in 2014.

Gregg Allman, depicted here, performing “Melissa,” in 2014.

The rock legend Gregg Allman, the singer and organist for The Allman Brothers Band, has died at the age of 69, his publicist confirmed Saturday.

Born in Nashville, Tennessee, before relocating to Daytona Beach, Florida, Gregg and his brother, Duane Allman, reached mainstream stardom by the early 1970s. Their live album At Fillmore East was a commercial and artistic breakthrough, including the blues rock hit “Statesboro Blues.” Their 1973 album Brothers and Sisters was their biggest hit, and Gregg Allman pursued a solo career when he released his debut album, Laid Back that same year.

The Allman Brothers reunited and after a decade of laying low, he hit yet another peak with the hit single “I’m No Angel” in 1987. He would go on to release two more solo albums, before The Allman Brothers united for a third and final time in 1989. Gregg continued performing until 2014 and released his most recent solo album, Low Country Blues, in 2011.

His latest, Southern Blood, is set to be released in 2017.

Gregg Allman received numerous awards including several Grammys, but was inducted into both the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Georgia Music Hall of Fame. His unique, distinctive raspy voice placed him in 70th place in the Rolling Stone list of the “100 Greatest Singers of All Time.” Axel Rose was number one.

Allman released an autobiography, My Cross to Bear, in 2012.

The rock legend Gregg Allman, the singer

Zbigniew Brzezinski, counselor and trustee, Center For Strategic And International Studies, testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2015, before the Senate Armed Services Committee's hearing to examine global challenges and US national security strategy. (Photo: AP)

Zbigniew Brzezinski, counselor and trustee, Center For Strategic And International Studies, testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2015, before the Senate Armed Services Committee’s hearing to examine global challenges and US national security strategy. (Photo: AP)

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Poland-born national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter who was known for his anti-Soviet views, has died at the age of 89. His daughter, a far left MSNBC host Mika Brzezinski, confirmed his death on social media Friday night.

“My father passed away peacefully tonight. He was known to his friends as Zbig, to his grandchildren as Chief and to his wife as the enduring love of her life,” she wrote. “I just knew his as the most inspiring, loving and devoted father any girl could ever have.”

Brzezinski, who was a foreign policy realist, served as a counselor to President Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1968 and was Carter’s National Security Advisor from 1977 to 1981. Ironically, neither Johnson nor Carter actually pursued a realist foreign policy strategy.

He had a tepid relationship with President Ronald Reagan, who was a practicing realist and strong opponent of communism. Yet, in 1985, President Reagan appointed Brzezinski to serve as a member of the President’s Chemical Warfare Commission.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Poland-born national security adviser

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Corporate profits rose 12.0% year-over-year in the first-quarter (1Q) of 2017 to an annualized $1.735.8 trillion, up from from $1.550.5 trillion in 1Q 2016. Profits are after tax without inventory valuation or capital consumption adjustments.

Corporate profits rose 12.0% year-over-year in the

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