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World

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center watches a firing contest of the KPA artillery units at undisclosed location in this photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on January 5, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center watches a firing contest of the KPA artillery units at undisclosed location in this photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on January 5, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile despite warnings from the U.S. and China, South Korean military tells local media. The test, which appears to have been a failure, comes on the same day U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took the threat of a nuclear North Korea to the United Nations Security Council on Friday.

Mr. Tillerson urged member countries to cut ties with Pyongyang and freeze access to funds that could be used to develop the rogue nation’s nuclear arsenal.

“With each successive detonation and missile test, North Korea pushes northeast Asia and the world closer to instability and broader conflict,” Tillerson said. “The threat of a North Korean attack on Seoul or Tokyo is real.”

Tillerson called on the international community to fully implement U.N. sanctions and to suspend or downgrade diplomatic ties as well with North Korea, adding that it was “only a matter of time” before Pyongyang takes aim at the U.S. He said the international community must take real steps right now in order to prevent North Korea from carrying out those threats.

“Business as usual is not an option,” Tillerson told 15 other top diplomats at the meeting.

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres joined Mr. Tillerson on the decision-making council and condemned North Korea’s record of repeated violations of U.N. resolutions regarding nuclear and missile testing and development.

“I am alarmed by the risk of a military escalation in the region, including by miscalculation or misunderstanding,” Secretary General Guterres said.

Following his meeting with President Donald J. Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned North Korea about conducting another ballistic missile test. Multiple reports characterized the warning more as a threat. In an interview with Reuters published late Thursday, President Trump warned that a “major, major” conflict with Pyongyang is a possibility, but that he is working toward a diplomatic solution.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged that Beijing would fully support and implement all existing and further U.N. sanctions on North Korea.

“Due to the recent efforts by [North Korea] to accelerate missile and nuclear development, China agrees to the international community to step up efforts of non-proliferation,” Minister Wang said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is taking unilateral action on the sanctions front. House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif, said that the lower chamber will hold a vote on sanctions early next week, which he said would target nation’s shipping industry and “those who employ North Korean slave labor abroad.”

[wpdatatable id=92 table_view=regular]

BREAKING: North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile

Politics

President Donald Trump, center, Wayne LaPierre, right, and Chris Cox, left, at the National Rifle Association (NRA) annual convention in Atlanta, Ga. (Photo: NRA)

President Donald Trump, center, Wayne LaPierre, right, and Chris Cox, left, at the National Rifle Association (NRA) annual convention in Atlanta, Ga. (Photo: NRA)

President Donald J. Trump gave a rousing speech at the National Rifle Association (NRA) annual convention on Friday, making him the first president to return since 1983. Not since Ronald Reagan addressed the gun-rights group has a sitting Republican president returned to show his appreciation.

Until now.

The President took to the stage to cheers of “USA, USA” after Lee Greenwood opened up with “God Bless the U.S.A.” He thanked Wayne LaPierre for his “unflinching” fight for freedom and support during the presidential election.

“It’s truly good to be back in Atlanta and back with my friends at the NRA,” he said. “Only one candidate during the general election came to speak to you and that candidate is now standing before you as the President of the United States.”

“You came through for me, and I am going to come through for you.”

The NRA endorsed the then-presumptive Republican nominee for President last May at an event in Louisville, Kentucky, marking the earliest time the group ever endorsed a candidate in a presidential election.

President Trump pledged at the time to “save our Second Amendment” and appoint judges which would support expansive gun rights. He has since appointed Neil Gorsuch, a textualist conservative who was confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this month.

The President said he came to “bring good news.”

“The 8 year assault on your Second Amendment freedoms has come to a crashing end,” President Trump said. “You have a true friend and champion in the White House.”

The President also touted his fulfilled promise to appoint a Supreme Court justice who follows the letter of the law, rather than a liberal activist who rewrites it from the bench. Justice Gorsuch is widely trusted among conservatives to protect the right of an individual to bear arms, and even got the best of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., during an exchange over gun rights at his confirmation hearing.

“For the first time in the modern political era, we have confirmed a Supreme Court justice in the first 100 days,” he said to an applause from the crowd. “The last time that happened was 136 years ago in 1881.”

The President also ran down a list of cabinet names and offered each praise for the job they are doing.

“For the first time in your life you have a real pro-Second Amendment tough on crime attorney general and his name is Jeff Sessions,” President Trump said, adding “it’s about time” the nation’s top cop enforces the law.

He also urged Republicans to get out and vote for Karen Handel, who he said “is totally for the NRA.” Her opponent, he said, will “raise your taxes to the sky, destroy your healthcare, and isn’t even eligible to vote in the district.”

The NRA hosted President Reagan during his third year of his first term, even though every Republican candidate and president has courted the gun-rights group and its millions of members. George H.W. Bush, who was defeated during his bid for a second term, wrote a letter terminating his membership from the group in 1995. His son, President George W. Bush, sent Vice President Dick Cheney to the annual conference.

Not Donald Trump.

“Let me make a simple promise to the freedom loving people,” he said. “As your president I will never, ever infringe on the right of the people to keep and bear arms. Freedom is not a gift from the government. Freedom is a gift from God.”

President Donald Trump gave a rousing speech

Religion

Pope Francis meets Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed el-Tayeb (R), Egyptian Imam of al-Azhar Mosque, at the Vatican May 23, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Pope Francis meets Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed el-Tayeb (R), Egyptian Imam of al-Azhar Mosque, at the Vatican May 23, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Pope Francis said at al-Azhar University in Egypt on Friday that leading imams should “unmask violence that masquerades as purported sanctity.” The Catholic pope’s comments came during a visit to a major center of Sunni Islamic learning in the Arab world’s most populous country.

“As religious leaders, we are called to unmask violence that masquerades as purported sanctity,” Pope Francis said to the crowd. “Let us say once more a firm and clear ‘No’ to every form of violence, vengeance and hatred carried out in the name of religion or in the name of God.”

Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, al-Azhar’s grand imam, hosted the pope and Muslim leaders, students and scholars at the conference.

“We need to cleanse religions from wrong notions, false piety and fraudulent implementations which stoke conflicts and incite hatred and violence,” the pope added. “Islam is not a religion of terrorism because a minority from among its followers hijacked some of its texts.”

Pope Francis visited the nation after a rash of recent deadly Islamic terror attacks against Coptic Christians just three weeks ago. Dual bombings credited to the Islamic State at Coptic churches on Palm Sunday killed at least 43 people. Coptic Christians make up 10% of Egypt’s population, but fewer than 150,000 Copts are Catholic. Three weeks ago, the Islamic State bombed two Coptic churches, killing 45.

In his speech, Francis strongly backed the President Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi’s crackdown against the Islamic terrorists, citing Egypt’s role in the region and in “vanquishing all violence and terrorism.”

“Egypt, in the days of Joseph, saved other peoples from famine; today it is called to save this beloved region from a famine of love and fraternity,” he said. “It is called to condemn and vanquish all violence and terrorism.”

Pope Francis said at al-Azhar University in

Politics

President Executive Order (Photo: AP)

President Executive Order (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order on Friday that the administration said will begin to expand offshore drilling and energy independence. The order, titled “Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy,” will direct a “review of the locations available for off-shore oil and gas exploration,” as well as other related government regulations.

President Trump’s policy could open up oil and gas exploration off Virginia and North and South Carolina, where drilling has been blocked for decades. It also begins to undo a late-term Obama era policy banning leasing in the Arctic for drilling.

“Today we’re unleashing American energy and clearing the way for thousands and thousands of high-paying American energy jobs,” The President said in his announcement. “Our country is blessed with incredible natural resources, including abundant offshore oil and natural gas reserves. But the federal government has kept 94% of these offshore areas closed for exploration and production.”

It also directs Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke to conduct a full review of the locations available for offshore drilling, which fell under the five-year ban signed by Mr. Obama in November. In December, after his party was defeated soundly in the elections, effort by President Obama to deem the bulk of U.S.-owned waters in the Arctic Ocean and certain areas in the Atlantic as indefinitely off limits to oil and gas leasing.

“This deprives our country of potentially thousands and thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in wealth,” he added.

President Donald J. Trump signed an executive

Economy

U.S. President Donald J. Trump (C), flanked by Gary Masino (L) of the Sheet Metal Workers Union, Telma Mata (2nd R) of the Heat and Frost Insulators Allied Workers Local 24 and United Brotherhood of Carpenters General President Doug McCarron (R), holds a roundtable meeting at the White House on Jan. 27. 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. President Donald J. Trump (C), flanked by Gary Masino (L) of the Sheet Metal Workers Union, Telma Mata (2nd R) of the Heat and Frost Insulators Allied Workers Local 24 and United Brotherhood of Carpenters General President Doug McCarron (R), holds a roundtable meeting at the White House on Jan. 27. 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, continued to hover at the “high plateau” hit after President Donald Trump’s election. Consumer sentiment came in at a strong 97.0 in April and partisan divisions over outlook lessened.

“Consumer sentiment continued to travel along the high plateau established following Trump’s election, with only minor deviations from its five month average of 97.4,” Richard Curtain, chief economist at the survey said. “There was widespread agreement among consumers on their very positive assessments of the current state of the economy as well as widespread disagreement on future economic prospects.”

The swing independent group are solidly in the optimistic camp, though their strength has yet to translate to higher consumer spending, as revealed in this morning’s GDP report. Consumer confidence readings surged following President Trump’s election and have since platued, but remain very high.

“It is of some interest to note that the Expectations Index among self-identified Independents, who may be less susceptible to traditional political ideologies, rose to a very favorable 91.3 in April, up from March’s 85.8 and well above the pre-election October reading of 73.1,” Mr. Curtain added. “The level of optimism among Independents, who account for 42% of all consumers, points toward continued growth in consumer spending in 2017 at about a 2.5% pace.”

The partisan divide on the Expectations Index was 51.0 points in April (61.4 vs. 112.4), down from last month’s 63.1 (59.4 vs. 122.5). However, Republicans moderated their optimism more than Democrats reduced their pessimism, perhaps no doubt due to uncertainty in the House of Representatives.

Next data release: Friday, May 12, 2017 for Preliminary May data at 10am ET

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

Economy

midwest-manufacturing-goods

Surveys gauging growth or contraction in Midwest manufacturing. (REUTERS)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer showed economic activity in the Midwest increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015. The reading easily beat the median Econoday consensus forecast of 56.55, as optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the third month in a row.

“The April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms,” said Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators. “Although the employment indicator has been bumpy, in and out of contraction, if the current month’s rise is sustained, it could provide a boost to the labor market.”

Three of the five Barometer components led April’s increase, with Production and Order Backlogs receding.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer showed economic

Economy

Workers assemble built-in appliances at the Whirlpool manufacturing plant in Cleveland, Tennessee August 21, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Workers assemble built-in appliances at the Whirlpool manufacturing plant in Cleveland, Tennessee August 21, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

The first of three estimates released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed gross domestic product (GDP) at an annual 0.7%, missing forecasts. That’s the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2014 and the weakest showing for consumer spending since the last recession.

The growth rate missed the forecast of 1.2% growth and came in well short of the 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 71% of overall economic growth in the U.S., grew at a meek 0.3% rate, down sharply from the 3.5% pace in the final three months of 2016. The slowdown was by fueled by weak consumer spending on long-lasting goods such as computers and kitchen appliances, automobiles, clothing and energy.

[First quarter] GDP growth has tended to be sluggish this cycle and also tended to fall short of growth in the other three quarters. Put in this context, today’s data should not be viewed being disturbing, but rather history repeating itself,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

On the flip side, economists have increased their forecast for annual growth under the new administration to 3% for this year, up about a point from the average growth under the last administration, who suffered from the weakest recovery since the Great Depression. However, it is unclear whether the report will adjust estimates.

“The rise in equipment investment indicates that firms are expanding capacity in anticipation of rising demand. Likewise, a strong showing of residential investment, along with other positive signals from the housing sector, indicates that the household sector remains confident in the economic outlook,” Michael Gapen, who leads Barclays economics research team said.

The first of three estimates released Friday

Policy

The late and great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia poses a question to plaintiffs in 2005. (Photo: AP)

The late and great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia poses a question to plaintiffs in 2005. (Photo: AP)

As Arkansas attempts to carry out eight lethal injections on death row inmates before one of its drugs expired on Sunday, the Left is once again trying to snuff out the death penalty.

Cries of cruel and unusual punishment are filling the pages of “news” stories and 3-minute segments after the lawyer for Kenneth Williams, the Arkansas death row inmate who was given a lethal injection on Thursday, called for an investigation into his execution.

He released a statement after an Associated Press (AP) reporter claimed his client lurched and convulsed–once violently–after he was administered the fatal drugs. Just for the record, involuntary muscular reactions are in fact well-known side-effects of the sedative midazolam, the first of three drugs administered during lethal injection.

Republican state Sen. Trent Garner, who witnessed the execution, said Williams did not “seem in pain. … It was not cruel, unusual, botched or torture.”

But that’s irrelevant as it pertains to the law.

In June 2015, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) upheld the use of the drug, even as two dissenting liberal justices declared that it was “highly likely” the death penalty itself was and is unconstitutional. Justice Samuel Alito railed against the dissent, which was authored by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, painstakingly dissecting the five arguments the Left made against the drug and the death penalty, in general.

“Finally, we find it appropriate to respond to the principal dissent’s groundless suggestion that our decision is tantamount to allowing prisoners to be ‘drawn and quartered, slowly tortured to death, or actually burned at the stake,’” Justice Alito wrote. “That is simply not true, and the principal dissent’s resort to this outlandish rhetoric reveals the weakness of its legal arguments.”

But the late and great Justice Antontin Scalia not only took aim at the claim midazolam violates the Eighth Amendment prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment, but the desperate use of the argument itself as a means for undermining the death penalty, which is unquestionably constitutional.

What makes it unquestionably constitutional?

Well, as Justice Scalia mockingly observed, it’s in the U.S. Constitution. That’s right! The Constitution actually “contemplates” the death penalty and the founding fathers laid out when it is and is not permissible; again, right there in the Constitution.

In his opinion, which was joined by Justice Clarence Thomas, Justice Scalia gave a history lesson to those who haven’t bothered to read our founding document as only he could.

“Welcome to Groundhog Day. The scene is familiar: Petitioners, sentenced to die for the crimes they committed (including, in the case of one petitioner since put to death, raping and murdering an 11–month-old baby), come before this Court asking us to nullify their sentences as ‘cruel and unusual’ under the Eighth Amendment,” Justice Antonin Scalia joined by Justice Clarence Thomas wrote. “They rely on this provision because it is the only provision they can rely on.”

I’ll leave you with the best part. It’s the best because it’s so simple and yet you never hear the media even acknowledge it:

The response is also familiar: A vocal minority of the Court, waving over their heads a ream of the most recent abolitionist studies (a superabundant genre) as though they have discovered the lost folios of Shakespeare, insist that now, at long last, the death penalty must be abolished for good. Mind you, not once in the history of the American Republic has this Court ever suggested the death penalty is categorically impermissible. The reason is obvious: It is impossible to hold unconstitutional that which the Constitution explicitly contemplates. The Fifth Amendment provides that ‘[n]o person shall be held to answer for a capital . . . crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury,’ and that no person shall be ‘deprived of life . . . without due process of law.’

Case closed.

As the Left attacks Arkansas for attempting

US

Inmates Bruce Ward(top row L to R), Don Davis, Ledell Lee, Stacy Johnson, Jack Jones (bottom row L to R), Marcel Williams, Kenneth Williams and Jason Mcgehee are shown in these booking photo provided March 21, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Inmates Bruce Ward(top row L to R), Don Davis, Ledell Lee, Stacy Johnson, Jack Jones (bottom row L to R), Marcel Williams, Kenneth Williams and Jason Mcgehee are shown in these booking photo provided March 21, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The lawyer for Kenneth Williams, the Arkansas death row inmate who was executed by lethal injection Thursday, called for an investigation into the process. His remarks come after it was reported that his client lurched and convulsed after he was administered the fatal drugs.

An Associated Press reporter who witnessed the execution claimed Williams’ body jerked 15 times in quick succession, once violently before the movements slowed again. Williams’ attorneys called the account “horrifying” and called for an investigation into what he said was a “problematic execution.”

Republican state Sen. Trent Garner, who witnessed the execution, said Williams did not “seem in pain. … It was not cruel, unusual, botched or torture.” Further, J.R. Davis, a spokesman for Gov. Asa Hutchinson, said the movements were “an involuntary muscular reaction” that is a well-known side-effect of the sedative midazolam, the first of three drugs administered.

Williams, who became the fourth convicted killer executed in Arkansas in 8 days, was put to death 20 years after he murdered 19-year-old Dominique Hurd, a cheerleader at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. He kidnapped Hurd and her friend at gunpoint and forced them out of their car before he shot the young cheerleader in her head.

But that’s not the end of Williams’ story or to the pain and suffering he would cause.

On October 3, 1999, Williams escaped while he was serving a life sentence from the Cummins Unit of the state prison system in Lincoln County. He hid in a hog slop-filled tank of a garbage truck and during his escape he shot and killed 57-year-old Cecil Boren, who had worked as a warden at the prison. Boren, a father, was at his farm near the Cummins Unit.

Williams then dragged Boren’s body to a bayou, stole his pickup truck and several guns before driving to Missouri where he led police on a high-speed chase. During that chase, Williams crashed the pickup truck into a water delivery truck driven by 24-year-old Michael Greenwood, who also died in the crash leaving his wife Stacey and daughter Kayl without a husband and  father.

In August 2000, only 11 months after he was convicted of killing Dominique Hurd, Williams was charged with capital murder, kidnapping, aggravated robbery, theft and arson. A Lincoln County jury sentenced Williams to death for the murder of Boren.

Now, the state of Arkansas sought to carry out lethal injections before one of its drugs expired on Sunday.

“The long path of justice ended tonight and Arkansans can reflect on the last two weeks with confidence that our system of laws in this state has worked,” Gov. Hutchinson said in a statement issued after Williams’ execution.

Mr. Davis said that Gov. Hutchinson look into the matter “as he does with every execution,” but that he was confident the Department of Correction “did what it was supposed to do.”

The lawyer for Kenneth Williams, the Arkansas

Policy

House Speaker Paul Ryan, Ro-Wis., speaks about tax reform on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Reuters)

House Speaker Paul Ryan, Ro-Wis., speaks about tax reform on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Reuters)

I expressed pessimism about Trump’s tax plan. Simply stated, I don’t think Congress is willing to enact a large tax cut given the nation’s grim fiscal outlook.

In this Fox Business interview, I elaborated on my concerns while also pointing out that the plan would be very good if it somehow got enacted.

[brid video=”135930″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell Corporate Tax Cut Most Important in Trump Plan”]

We now have some preliminary numbers that illustrate why I’m concerned.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put together a quick guess about the revenue implications of Trump’s new plan. Their admittedly rough estimate is that federal revenues would be reduced by close to $6 trillion over 10 years.

Incidentally, these revenue estimates are very inaccurate because they are based on “static scoring,” which is the antiquated notion that major changes in tax policy have no impact on economic performance.

But these numbers nonetheless are useful since the Joint Committee on Taxation basically uses that approach when producing official revenue estimates that guide congressional action.

In other words, it doesn’t matter, at least for purposes of enacting legislation, that there would be substantial revenue feedback in the real world (the rich actually paid more, for instance, when Reagan dropped the top tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent). Politicians on Capitol Hill will point to the JCT’s static numbers, gasp with feigned horror, and use higher deficits as an excuse to vote no (even though those same lawmakers generally have no problem with red ink when voting to expand the burden of government spending).

That being said, they wouldn’t necessarily have that excuse if the Trump Administration was more aggressive about trying to shrink the size and scope of the federal government. So there’s plenty of blame to go around.

Until something changes, however, I don’t think Trump’s tax cut is very realistic. So if you want my prediction on what will happen, I’m sticking to the three options I shared yesterday.

  1. Congress and the White House decide to restrain spending, which easily would create room for a very large tax cut (what I prefer, but I won’t hold my breath for this option).
  2. Congress decides to adopt Trump’s tax cuts, but they balance the cuts with dangerous new sources of tax revenue, such as a border-adjustment tax, a carbon tax, or a value-added tax (the option I fear).
  3. Congress and the White House decide to go for a more targeted tax cut, such as a big reduction in the corporate income tax (which would be a significant victory).

By the way, the Wall Street Journal editorialized favorably about the plan this morning, mostly because it reflects the sensible supply-side view that it is good to have lower tax rates on productive behavior.

While the details are sparse and will have to be filled in by Congress, President Trump’s outline resembles the supply-side principles he campaigned on and is an ambitious and necessary economic course correction that would help restore broad-based U.S. prosperity. …Faster growth of 3% a year or more is possible, but it will take better policies, and tax reform is an indispensable lever. Mr. Trump’s modernization would be a huge improvement on the current tax code that would give the economy a big lift, especially on the corporate side. …The Trump principles show the President has made growth his highest priority, and they are a rebuke to the Washington consensus that 1% or 2% growth is the best America can do.

But the WSJ shares my assessment that the plan will not survive in its current form.

…the blueprint is being assailed from both the left and the balanced-budget right. The Trump economic team acknowledges that their plan would mean less federal revenue than current law… Mr. Trump’s plan is an opening bid to frame negotiations in Congress, and there are plenty of bargaining chips. Perhaps the corporate rate will rise to 20%… Budget rules and Democratic opposition could force Republicans to limit the reform to 10 years.

For what it’s worth, if the final result is a 15 percent or 20 percent corporate tax rate, I’ll actually be quite pleased. That reform would be very good for the economy and national competitiveness. And regardless of what JCT projects, there would be substantial revenue feedback.

Can or should Congress be willing to

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