Live at 10:00 AM EST — On this pilot episode of Inside the Numbers, the People’s Pundit and Wall Street trader Tim “The Source” Anderson will discuss the latest jobs report, pandemic politics and more.
On this pilot episode of Inside the
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the result of mitigation efforts to stop the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The 0.9 percentage point gain is the largest month-over-month increase since January 1975, when the increase was also 0.9.
Forecasts for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 3.6% to a high of 5.2%. The consensus forecast was 3.9%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mostly in food services and drinking places.
However, as with the ADP National Employment Report released earlier in the week, the reporting period does not cover most of the impact of the effort to “stop the spread”.
“This report reflects the initial impact on U.S. jobs of the public health measures being taken to contain the coronavirus,” Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia said in a statement. “It should be noted the report’s surveys only reference the week and pay periods that include March 12; we know that our report next month will show more extensive job losses, based on the high number of state unemployment claims reported yesterday and the week before.”
“The Trump Administration is taking thoughtful and deliberative actions to support workers and their families while they meet the challenges of this unprecedented health crisis.”
The labor force participation rate fell below the critical 63-percent threshold by 0.7% to 62.7%. White participation fell from 63.3 to 62.7, while black participation fell from 63.1 to 62.0. Hispanic participation fell from 68.1 to 67.1 and for Asians by 64.4 to 63.8.
Total employment, as measured by the household survey, fell by 3.0 million to 155.8 million, dragging down the employment-population ratio by 1.1% to 60.0%.
“The Trump Administration is taking thoughtful and deliberative actions to support workers and their families while they meet the challenges of this unprecedented health crisis,” Secretary Scalia added. “The legislation signed by President Trump in March provides historic financial support for America’s workers and employers, as well as incentives for businesses to keep their workers on payroll, which will help our economy spring back as soon as possible to the vibrant conditions we had just weeks ago.”
Average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 11 cents to $28.62. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1%, marking the twentieth consecutive month of wage growth at or above 3%.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 10 cents to $24.07 in March.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was downwardly revised by 59,000 from +273,000 to +214,000, and the change for February was upwardly revised up by 2,000 from +273,000 to +275,000.
With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 57,000 lower than previously reported.
“America’s workers and their families are making purposeful sacrifices to help save lives,” Secretary Scalia added. “This Administration will continue its vigorous efforts to protect the health, safety, and security of the American people as we defeat the coronavirus.”
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Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services narrowed to $39.9 billion in January, down another $5.5 billion from $45.5 billion in January. That’s the lowest trade deficit in the balance since September 1, 2016, when it was $39.0 billion.
The first trade balance report for 2020 beat the forecast after 2019 posted the first annual decline since 2013. This month marks the third straight decline.
Forecasts for the trade deficit ranged from a low of $46.0 billion to a high of $38.2 billion. The consensus forecast was $39.5 billion.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced exports in February fell far less than imports. Exports came in at $207.5 billion, a decline of $0.8 billion. Imports were $247.5 billion, down $6.3 billion.
The decrease in the overall goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $5.9 billion to $61.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $21.3 billion.
The goods and services deficit has fallen $19.7 billion, or 18.7%, from February 2019. Exports have gained $1.1 billion or 0.3 %. Imports have declined $18.6 billion or 3.6%.
The three-month average goods and services deficit decreased $1.3 billion to $44.7 billion for the period ending February 2020. Average exports rose $0.1 billion to $208.4 billion, while average imports fell $1.3 billion to $253.1 billion.
Year‐over‐year, the three-month average goods and services deficit ending in February 2019 fell $10.6 billion. Average exports rose $1.6 billion and average imports fell $9.0 billion.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined 1.7% to $616.8 billion in 2019. It was the first annual decrease since 2013.
According to new annual data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the deficit decline in the international trade balance was driven by energy independence.
Crude oil exports soared 35.5% or $17.1 billion compared to the same period in 2018, while crude oil imports cratered 19.3% or $30.3 billion over the prior year.
However, this report doesn’t cover the impact from mitigation efforts known as social distancing in response to the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19). Coupled with historically low crude oil prices, the future of small businesses behind U.S. energy independence is very much in doubt.
Future of Energy Independence, Fueling Shrinking Trade
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose far more than expected to 6,648,000 for the week ending March 28, attributable to the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 3,283,000.
This is the highest level for initial jobless claims ever on record. Forecasts ranged from a low of 2,000,000 to a high of 4,450,000. The consensus forecast was 3,350,000.
The 4-week moving average was 2,612,000, an increase of 1,607,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 6,000 from 998,250 to 1,004,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose 0.9% from a historically low 1.2% to 2.1% for the week ending March 21. The previous week was unrevised. The insured unemployment rate fell to historic lows one year into the Trump Administration. It is at the highest level now since May 3, 2014.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 21 rose 1,245,000 from the previous week’s revised level to 3,029,000. That is the highest level for insured unemployment since July 6, 2013 when it was 3,079,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 19,000 from 1,803,000 to 1,784,000.
The 4-week moving average rose 327,250 from the previous week’s revised average to 2,053,500. That is the highest level for this average since January 14, 2017 when it was 2,062,000. The previous week’s average was revised down by 4,750 from 1,731,000 to 1,726,250.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending March 14.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 14 were in Alaska (2.8), Connecticut (2.7), New Jersey (2.6), California (2.4), Massachusetts (2.3), Minnesota (2.3), Rhode Island (2.3), Montana (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.2), Illinois (2.1), and West Virginia (2.1).
All states reported increases in initial claims for the week ending March 21. The largest increases were in Pennsylvania (+362,012), Ohio (+189,263), Massachusetts (+141,003), Texas (+139,250), and California (+128,727), while the smallest increases were in the Virgin Islands (+79), South Dakota (+1,571), West Virginia (+2,671), Vermont (+3,125), and Wyoming (+3,136).
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Initial jobless claims rose more than expected
Coconut Creek, Fla. (PPD) — Nutralife Biosciences Inc. (NLBS) announced that it is producing sanitizer products amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The Florida-based company is converting its existing nutraceutical bottling manufacturing and distribution operation.
President and CEO Edgar Ward said the company added safety equipment and procedures at their 7,000 square-foot facility in Coconut Creek to be able to move to production of Eddie’s Clean Hands Sanitizing Spray.
It is an alcohol-based sanitizer that can be applied to hands or surfaces, and contains emollients — such as aloe and glycerin — to prevent excessive skin drying.
The company was assigned a labeler code from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and has begun to sell the branded sanitizer products on their website.
The move not only allowed the company to ramp up production of new products and help meet demand, but also retain their labor force while millions of other Americans are out of work.
“We are a very family oriented operation. Most of the people have been here since inception,” Mr. Ward said in an interview with People’s Pundit Daily (PPD).
“This is keeping people going. This is keeping people employed. These are hardworking people.”
Amid the coronavirus outbreak, the demand for sanitizer products has skyrocketed and supply chains have strained. Nutralife Biosciences Inc. is opening a 20,000 square-foot facility in Deerfield that will significantly increase production capabilities.
While currently employing 27 people, the company will need “double or more” to open the new facility.
“We are being very precautious and hoping to obtain test kits to ensure workers are not infected,” Mr. Ward added. “Hopefully, that’s sooner rather than later.”
While numerous companies have explored the option of manufacturing sanitizer products as a result of the shortage during the COVID-19 outbreak, not all have found it feasible. In addition to safety issues inherent to manufacturing alcohol-based products, many companies find the FDA’s regulations overly burdensome.
But as an existing nutraceutical bottling manufacturing company with an FDA attorney and a regulatory staff on hand, Nutralife Biosciences Inc. was uniquely positioned to make the transition. It was only a week and a half before they were assigned a labeler code.
“We understand the concerns from the FDA,” Mr. Ward said. “We’ve built our business around it.”
“We operate our company according to FDA guidelines.”
NutraLife Biosciences, Inc. operates a multifaceted life sciences company. For more than 6 years the company has manufactured and distributed private label and branded nutraceutical and skincare wellness products.
Company Website: https://nutralifebiosciences.com
Eddie’s Clean Hands: https://eddiescleanhands.com
Nutralife Biosciences Inc. (NLBS), a Florida-based nutraceutical
Asbury Park, N.J. (PPD) — A new poll finds voters do not believe the U.S. can remain shutdown due to the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) and share the president’s concern that the government may go too far in its efforts to stop the spread.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all voters are concerned that the government’s cure for the coronavirus threat may be worse than the problem, according to a Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey. That includes 32% who are very concerned.
Only 34% don’t share the concerns of the majority, but that includes only 12% who are not at all concerned.
Further, only 36% believe the U.S. can “afford to remain largely shutdown for an indefinite period to limit the spread of the coronavirus,” while 46% say it cannot. Another 18% are undecided.
Interestingly, younger voters ages 18-39 are more likely to doubt that the country can remain largely shut down indefinitely. Only 36% believe it can afford to do so, while 51% say it cannot.
Younger voters are also the most concerned that the government may go too far. At least 64% are at least somewhat concerned, including 38% who are very concerned.
Whites (33%) question an indefinite shutdown more than blacks (40%) and other minority voters (47%) do. However, black voters are more likely (56%) than whites (26%) to be very concerned the cure is worse than the problem.
The same is true for Democrats. While more Democrats (43%) say the U.S. can afford an indefinite shutdown, they (37%) are also more likely than Republicans (28%) and Unaffiliated (31%) voters to say they are very concerned.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted March 25-26, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Voters do not believe the U.S. can
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — Total construction spending was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,366.7 billion, 1.3% (±0.8%) below the upwardly revised $1,384.5 billion estimate in January.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.5% to a high of 1.0%. The consensus forecast was 0.6%. The month of January was revised higher from a gain of 1.8% to 2.8%.
The February figure is 6.0% (±1.2%) above the February 2019 estimate of $1,289.0 billion. During the first two months of this year, construction spending amounted to $193.5 billion, 8.2% (±1.2%) above the $178.8 billion for the same period in 2019.
Spending on private construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,025.8 billion, down 1.2% (±0.7%) from the revised January estimate of $1,038.5 billion.
Residential construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $564.3 billion in February, down 0.6% (±1.3%) from the revised January estimate of $567.6 billion.
Nonresidential construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $461.5 billion in February, down 2.0% (±0.7%) from the revised January estimate of $471.0 billion.
The estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $340.9 billion, down 1.5% (±1.6%) from the revised January estimate of $345.9 billion.
Educational construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $79.5 billion, 1.5% (±2.6%) below the revised January estimate of $80.7 billion.
Highway construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $102.4 billion, down 1.2% (±4.4%) from the revised January estimate of $103.6 billion.
Worth noting again, the month of January was revised higher, which obscures the year-to-date and year-over-year gains.
Total onstruction spending came in at a
Tempe, Az. (PPD) — The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (PMI) came in at 49.1 in March, a far less than expected decline that beat forecasts.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 40.0 to a high of 48.0. The consensus forecast was 44.0.
The New Orders Index came in at just 42.2%, a decline of 7.6 points from the February reading of 49.8%. The Production Index came in at 47.7%, down 2.6 from 50.3%.
The Backlog of Orders Index posted at 45.9%, a decline of 4.4 points from 50.3%. The Employment Index registered 43.8%, a decrease of 3.1 from 46.9%.
The Supplier Deliveries Index came in at 65%, up 7.7 points from 57.3%. While readings above 50% indicate slower deliveries typical of higher demand and an expanding economy, the reading in March was primarily the result of supply issues due to the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Meanwhile, the Inventories Index registered at 46.9%, a slightly 0.4 percentage increase from 46.5%.
Worth noting, the Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index (PMI), an alternative gauge of national factory activity stressed by U.S. Trade Representative Peter Navarro over the ISM PMI, came in at 48.5.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 39.5 to a high of 49.2. The consensus forecast was 48.4. Markets watch ISM closer.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing
Roseland, N.J. (PPD) — Total private sector employment fell by 27,000 jobs from February to March, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The report only includes data through March 12, the same time period for the monthly jobs report conducted by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS).
“It is important to note that the ADP National Employment Report is based on the total number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s payroll through the 12th of the month,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As such, the March NER does not fully reflect the most recent impact of COVID-19 on the employment situation, including unemployment claims reported on March 26, 2020.”
As forecasted, small business have taken the brunt of the economic impact due to the mitigation efforts to combat the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19). Small businesses with 1 – 19 employees lost -66,000 jobs, while those with 20 – 49 employees lost -24,000.
Medium businesses with 50 – 499 employees added 7,000, while large businesses with 500+ employees added 56,000.
The goods-producer sector lost -9,000 jobs, including -16,000 for construction. That was partially outweighed by a gain of 6,000 in manufacturing and a gain of 1,000 in natural resources and mining.
The service-providing sector collectively lost -18,000 private sector jobs.
Still, as bad as those numbers are, they are nowhere near where the forecasts indicated. Worth noting, it is the lagging nature of the report that should be taken into account.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -1,000,000 to a high of -100,000. The consensus forecast was -180,000.
Total private sector employment fell by 27,000
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — President Donald Trump said while there is “some light at the end of the tunnel,” the nation has a “very painful two weeks” ahead. The White House projected — with mitigation efforts — the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) could still result in 100,000 to 240,000 dead in the United States and millions infected.
“We’re going to start seeing some light at the end of the tunnel,” the president said. “But this is going to be a very painful, very painful two weeks.”
“The surge is coming, and it’s coming pretty strong,” he added.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, seemed to caution against modeling.
“I know my modeling colleagues won’t be happy with me, but models are only as good as the data you put into them,” he said.
Still, he argued now is not the time for the country to reverse course, despite the strategy being “inconvenient economically.”
“The reason why we feel so strongly about the necessity of the additional 30 days is that now is the time, whenever you’re having an effect, not to take your foot off the accelerator.”
Dr. Fauci added model projections increase to a range from 1.5 million and 2.2 million deaths without mitigation efforts to contain the spread of the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19).
“It is absolutely critical for the American people to follow the guidelines,” President Trump stressed during the briefing. “It’s a matter of life and death.”
The White House unveiled “30 Days to Slow the Spread”, new guidelines after the president decided to extend the strategy he implemented just over two weeks ago. It includes guidance on social distancing, working from home, frequently washing hands, and avoiding any unnecessary travel.
Even if you are young, or otherwise health, you are at risk and your activities can increase the risk for others. It is critical that you do your part to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
President Trump said there will soon be
