Widget Image
Follow PPD Social Media
follow
1,000 Followers
follow
0 Followers
follow
People's Pundit Locals Community
Thursday, February 6, 2025
SECTIONS
logo
mobile-logo
HomeStandard Blog Whole Post (Page 384)
Elections

Theresa May, the next UK prime minister following the resignation of David Cameron. (REUTERS/Peter Nicholls)

Theresa May, the next UK prime minister following the resignation of David Cameron. (REUTERS/Peter Nicholls)

British Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election on June 8 seeking a strong mandate as she negotiates the country’s exit from the European Union. The surprise announcement comes less than a month after the United Kingdom (UK) delivered Article 50, a letter to the EU officially triggering their departure from the 28-nation bloc known as Brexit.

While Prime Minister May was not a leader in the Brexit movement, she has faithfully taken on the task of carrying out the British majority’s will as liberals and globalists still attempt to push back. May called herself a “Reluctant Remainer” during the Brexit campaign, but slammed the unelected, more liberal and elitist House of Lords when they attempted to delay and amend the Brexit bill passed in the elected House of Commons.

In the end, the divorce letter was hand delivered on April 29 to European Council President Donald Tusk by Britain’s EU ambassador Sir Tim Barrows in Brussels.

As a result, conservatives have a large lead (roughly 20 points) over their liberal rivals, most of whom did not support the “Leave” campaign. Conservatives are leading with 46% to just 25% for the Labour party. A YouGov Poll conducted earlier this week and published on Sunday also found Tories leading by 21 points, 44% to 23%.

That’s a landslide in parliamentary elections. How big? Projections based on the data show conservatives with a net 69-seat gain to 400, giving them a 150-seat majority over Labour with just 162 seats. That’s a net loss for liberals of 70 seats. The British people overwhelmingly (55%) want Prime Minister May to stay living at 10 Downing Street. Only 18% prefer her chief rival Jeremy Corbyn.

Prime Minister May took over for David Cameron, who vigorously campaigned for the “Remain” side, after the British people voting in droves shocked the pollsters and pundits.

British Prime Minister Theresa May called for

Entertainment

Conservative talk show host Glenn Beck.

Conservative talk show host Glenn Beck.

Glenn Beck countersued Tomi Lahren, who sued him and TheBlaze ten days ago for wrongful termination she alleged was a result of remarks in support of abortion. In a brief filed Monday, Beck and TheBlaze do address her statements on abortion, but claim Lahren was never fired from the network.

Instead, the countersuit alleges she was benched from being on the air due to bad behavior including Lahren’s mistreating of staff, and making public appearances without prior approval.

“Lahren’s word choices on air had to be addressed repeatedly for bordering on the profane,” the brief states. They also claim she was overheard complaining about the company, claiming one day she would one day own the network. Further, the suit alleges she violated her contract by publicly disclosing her wardrobe budget.

On April 7th, Lahren sued Beck claiming she was fired for remarks she made on The View.

“I can’t sit here and be a hypocrite and say I’m for limited government but I think the government should decide what women do with their bodies,” Lahren told the hosts that.

The network asked the court to recognize Lahren still remains under contract at TheBlaze, to grant an injunction against her for breach of contract, and a restraining order against her making any public appearances or statements without TheBlaze’s approval.

On the abortion statements, the lawsuit says

“Lahren embarrassed the company and many of its staff and other personalities because her statements [on abortion] were uninformed and inconsistent.” Her comments—which were contradictory of her own previous statements on the subject—“offended” the network’s predominantly conservative audience and therefore “reflected negatively on TheBlaze’s reputation.”

Glenn Beck countersued Tomi Lahren, who ten

Policy

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., administers the House oath of office to Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, during a mock swearing in ceremony on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017, in Washington. (Photo: AP)

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., administers the House oath of office to Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, during a mock swearing in ceremony on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017, in Washington. (Photo: AP)

My crusade against the border-adjustable tax (BAT) continues.

In a column co-authored with Veronique de Rugy of Mercatus, I explain in today’s Wall Street Journal why Republicans should drop this prospective source of new tax revenue.

…this should be an opportune time for major tax cuts to boost American growth and competitiveness. But much of the reform energy is being dissipated in a counterproductive fight over the “border adjustment” tax proposed by House Republicans. …Republican tax plans normally receive overwhelming support from the business community. But the border-adjustment tax has created deep divisions. Proponents claim border adjustability is not protectionist because it would automatically push up the value of the dollar, neutralizing the effect on trade. Importers don’t have much faith in this theory and oppose the GOP plan.

Much of the column is designed to debunk the absurd notion that a BAT is needed to offset some mythical advantage that other nations supposedly enjoy because of their value-added taxes.

Here’s what supporters claim.

Proponents of the border-adjustment tax also are using a dodgy sales pitch, saying that their plan will get rid of a “Made in America Tax.” The claim is that VATs give foreign companies an advantage. Say a German company exports a product to the U.S. It doesn’t pay the American corporate income tax, and it receives a rebate on its German VAT payments. But an American company exporting to Germany has to pay both—it’s subject to the U.S. corporate income tax and then pays the German VAT on the product when it is sold.

Sounds persuasive, at least until you look at both sides of the equation.

When the German company sells to customers in the U.S., it is subject to the German corporate income tax. The competing American firm selling domestically pays the U.S. corporate income tax. Neither is hit with a VAT. In other words, a level playing field.

Here’s a visual depiction of how the current system works. I include the possibility that that German products sold in America may also get hit by the US corporate income tax (if the German company have a US subsidiary, for instance). What’s most important, though, is that neither American-produced goods and services nor German-produced goods and services are hit by a VAT.

Now let’s consider the flip side.

What if an American company sells to a customer in Germany? The U.S. government imposes the corporate income tax and the German government imposes a VAT. But guess what? The German competitor selling domestically is hit by the German corporate income tax and the German VAT. That’s another level playing field. This explains why economists, on the right and left, repeatedly have debunked the idea that countries use VATs to boost their exports.

Here’s the German version of the map. Once again, I note that it’s possible – depending on the structure of the US company – for American products to get hit by the German corporate income tax. But the key point of the map is to show that American-produced goods and services and German-produced goods and services are subject to the VAT.

By the way, it’s entirely possible that an American company in Germany or a German company in America may pay higher or lower taxes depending on whether there are special penalties or preferences. Those companies may also pay more or less depending on the cleverness of their tax lawyers and tax accountants.

But one thing can be said with total certainty: The absence of an American VAT does not result in a “Made-in-America” tax on American companies. Even Paul Krugman agrees that VATs don’t distort trade.

Moreover, Veronique and I point out that the lack of a VAT creates a big advantage for the United States.

One big plus for Americans is that Washington does not impose a VAT, which would enable government to grow. This is a major reason that the U.S. economy is more vibrant than Europe’s. In Germany, the VAT raises so much tax revenue that the government consumes 44% of gross domestic product—compared with 38% in America.

And to the extent that there is a disadvantage, it’s not because of some sneaky maneuver by foreign governments. It’s because of a self-inflicted wound.

America’s top corporate income tax of 35% is the highest in the developed world. If state corporate income taxes are added, the figure hits nearly 40%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That compares very unfavorably with other nations. Europe’s average top corporate rate is less than 19%, and the global average is less than 23%… That’s the real “Made in America Tax,” and it’s our own fault.

The column does acknowledge that BAT supporters have their hearts in the right place. They are proposing that new source of revenue to help finance a lower corporate tax rate, as well as expensing.

But there’s a much better way to enable those pro-growth reforms.

If Congress simply limits the growth of outlays to about 2% a year, that would create enough fiscal space to balance the budget over 10 years and adopt a $3 trillion tax cut. If Republicans want a win-win, dropping the border-adjustment tax is the way to get one.

And what if Republicans aren’t willing to restrain spending? Then maybe the sensible approach is to simply cut the corporate tax rate and declare victory.

Is a Border-Adjustable Tax (BAT) really needed

Economy

new-home-construction

Contractor working in new home construction. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) remained strong, falling 3 points to 68 after an unusually high March reading.

“Even with this month’s modest drop, builder confidence is on very firm ground, and builders are reporting strong interest among potential home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

All three HMI components posted losses in April but remain at strong levels. The components gauging current sales conditions fell 3 points to 74, while the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped 3 points to 75. The component measuring buyer traffic edged 1 point down to 52.

“The fact that the HMI measure of current sales conditions has been over 70 for five consecutive months shows that there is continued demand for new construction,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders are facing several challenges, such as hefty regulatory costs and ongoing increases in building material prices.”

The 3-month moving averages for regional HMI scores show the West and Midwest both rose one point to 77 and 68, respectively. The South held steady at 68, and the Northeast fell two points to 46.

The monthly survey has been conducting for the NAHB for 30 years, which gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo

Economy

manufacturing-reuters

Surveys gauging manufacturing growth or contraction in Empire State. (REUTERS)

The New York Federal Reserve said the Empire State Manufacturing Survey has now beat the median forecast in 4 of the last 5 five reports. While general business conditions inched down two points to 16.4, it’s tracking at a 3-year high and still beat expectations by 1 point in March.

New orders are at an 8-year high and unfilled orders are at an 11-year high.

The subindex gauging labor market conditions indicated an increase in both employment and hours worked, boding well for wage growth. The index for number of employees rose to 8.8, and the average workweek index rose to 15.0.

Indexes gauging the six-month outlook also suggest firms remain highly optimistic about future business conditions. Employment and hours worked are expected to add to their gains this month in the months ahead, while the capital expenditures index increased to 23.9 and the technology spending index declined 8 points to 8.0.

The New York Federal Reserve said the

Politics

Vice President Mike Pence tours the demilitarized zone (DMZ). (Photo: Reuters)

Vice President Mike Pence tours the demilitarized zone (DMZ). (Photo: Reuters)

Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday during a tour of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that the “era of strategic patience” with North Korea is over. The sitting vice president visited the DMZ, the area dividing North and South Korea, on a 10-day Asia tour while the U.S. Navy joined by Japanese warships make a show of force off the peninsula.

In a joint appearance with South Korean Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn, Vice President Pence put North Korea on notice and made clear President Donald J. Trump is charting a new course.

“Just in the past two weeks, the world witnessed the strength and resolve of our new president in actions taken in Syria and Afghanistan. North Korea would do well not to test his resolve or the strength of the armed forces of the United States in this region.”

The visit to Seoul comes hours after North Korea carried out a failed missile launch one day after the 105th birthday of the late North Korea founder Kim Il Sung. U.S. Pacific Command said the unidentified missile “blew up almost immediately” and it was a total failure, but reports suggest the U.S. might have sabotaged the test.

Vice President echoed remarks previously made by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who said “the policy of strategic patience” with Pyongyang was over and warned that pre-emptive military action was “on the table” when he visited the DMZ last month.

[wpdatatable id=92 table_view=regular]

Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday during

Policy

IMF HQ

International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters. (Photo: Reuters)

Since I’ve written that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is “the Dumpster Fire of the Global Economy” and “the Dr. Kevorkian of Global Economic Policy,” I don’t think anyone could call me a fan of that international bureaucracy.

But I’ve also noted that the real problem with organizations like the IMF is that they have bad leadership. The professional economists at international bureaucracies often produce good theoretical and empirical work. That sensible research doesn’t make much difference, though, since the actual real-world policy decisions are made by political hacks with a statist orientation.

For instance, the economists at the IMF have produced research on the benefits of smaller government and spending caps. But the political leadership at the IMF routinely ignores that sensible research and instead has a dismal track record of pushing for tax increases.

Hope springs eternal, though, so I’m going to share some new IMF research on tax policy that is very sound. It’s from the second chapter of the bureaucracy’s newest Fiscal Monitor. Here are some excerpts, starting with an explanation of why the efficient allocation of resources is so important for prosperity.

A top challenge facing policymakers today is how to raise productivity, the key driver of living standards over the long term. …The IMF’s policy agenda has therefore emphasized the need to employ all policy levers, and in particular to promote growth-friendly fiscal policies that will boost productivity and potential output. Total factor productivity (TFP) at the country level reflects the productivity of individual firms…aggregate TFP depends on firms’ individual TFP and also on how available resources (labor and capital) are allocated across firms. Indeed, the poor use of existing resources within countries—referred to here as resource misallocation—has been found to be an important source of differences in TFP levels across countries and over time. …What is resource misallocation? Simply put, it is the poor distribution of resources across firms, reducing the total output that can be obtained from existing capital and labor.

The chapter notes that creative destruction plays a vital role in growth.

Baily, Hulten, and Campbell (1992) find that 50 percent of manufacturing productivity growth in the United States during the 1980s can be attributed to the reallocation of factors across plants and to firm entry and exit. Similarly, Barnett and others (2014) find that labor reallocation across firms explained 48 percent of labor productivity growth for most sectors in the U.K. economy in the five years prior to 2007.

And a better tax system would enable some of that growth by creating a level playing field.

Simply stated, you want people in the private sector to make decisions based on what makes economic sense rather than because they’re taking advantage of some bizarre quirk in the tax code.

Potential TFP gains from reducing resource misallocation are substantial and could lift the annual real GDP growth rate by roughly 1 percentage point. …Upgrading the design of their tax systems can help countries chip away at resource misallocation by ensuring that firms’ decisions are made for business and not tax reasons. Governments can eliminate distortions that they themselves have created. …For instance, the current debt bias feature of some tax systems not only distorts financing decisions but hampers productivity as well, especially in the case of advanced economies. …Empirical evidence shows that greater tax disparity across capital asset types is associated with higher misallocation.

One of the main problems identified by the IMF experts is the tax bias for debt.

And since I wrote about this problem recently, I’m glad to see that there is widespread agreement on the economic harm that is created.

Corporate debt bias occurs when firms are allowed to deduct interest expenses, but not returns to equity, in calculating corporate tax liability. …Several options are available to eliminate the distortions arising from corporate debt bias and from tax disparities across capital asset types, including the allowance for corporate equity system and a cash flow tax. …In the simplest sense, a CFT is a tax levied on the money entering the business less the money leaving the business. A CFT entails immediate expensing of all investment expenditures (that is, 100 percent first-year depreciation allowances) and no deductibility of either interest payments or dividends. Therefore, if it is well designed and implemented, a CFT does not affect the decision to invest or the scale of investment, and it does not discriminate across sources of financing.

By the way, regular readers may notice that the IMF economists favor a cash-flow tax, which is basically how the business side of the flat tax operates. There is full expensing in that kind of system, and interest and dividends are treated equally.

This is also the approach in the House Better Way tax plan, so the consensus for cash-flow taxation is very broad (though the House wants a destination-based approach, which is misguided for several reasons).

But let’s not digress. There’s one other aspect of the IMF chapter that is worthy of attention. There’s explicit discussion of how high tax rates undermine tax compliance, which is music to my ears.

Several studies have shown that tax policy and tax administration affect the prevalence of informality and thus productivity. Colombia provides an interesting case study on the effect of taxation on informality. A 2012 tax reform that reduced payroll taxes was found to incentivize a shift of Colombian workers out of informal into formal employment. Leal Ordóñez (2014) finds that taxes and regulations play an important role in explaining informality in Mexico. For Brazil, Fajnzylber, Maloney, and Montes-Rojas (2011) show that tax reductions and simplification led to a significant increase in formal firms with higher levels of revenue and profits. While a higher tax burden contributes to the prevalence of informality… For 130 developing countries, a higher corporate tax rate is found to increase the prevalence of cheats among small manufacturing firms, lowering the share of sales reported for tax purposes.

In closing, I should point out that the IMF chapter is not perfect.

For instance, even though it cites research about how high tax rates reduce compliance, the chapter doesn’t push for lower rates. Instead, it endorses more power for national tax authorities. Makes me wonder if the political folks at the IMF imposed that recommendation on the folks who wrote the chapter?

Regardless, the overall analysis of the chapter is quite sound. It’s based on a proper understanding that growth is generated by the efficient allocation of labor and capital, and it recognizes that bad tax policy undermines that process by distorting incentives for productive behavior.

The next step is convince Ms. Lagarde and the rest of the IMF’s leadership to read the chapter. They get tax-free salaries, so is it too much to ask that they stop pushing for higher taxes on the rest of us?

International Monetary Fund (IMF) research shows the

US

(UPDATE: Steve Stephens, the “Facebook killer” who sparked a multi-state manhunt after he shot and killed an elderly Cleveland man on Facebook Live, killed himself Tuesday morning in Erie County as cops closed in, Pennsylvania State Police said on Facebook. — READ MORE)

[brid video=”133441″ player=”2077″ title=”Elderly Man in Cleveland Shot Killed on Facebook Live WARNING GRAPHIC”]

Cleveland Police are searching for a man identified as Steve Stephens who shot and killed a 74-year-old man on Facebook Live under the username “Stevie Steve.” The horrific video was available on social media for at least two hours before his page was taken down.

The shooting, which was posted to Facebook on Sunday, was confirmed by police as legitimate and took place at 635 East 93rd Street. In the video, Stephens asks the elderly man before shooting him if he knows a girl who appears to have been his girlfriend and will go unnamed at this time.

“She’s the reason this is about to happen to you,” he says before pulling the trigger.

Stephens, who claimed to have killed 15 other people, took to Facebook to blame the shootings on the woman.

He wrote, “three years I spent with this bitch … I wish we never met.”

Cleveland Police said in a statement that Steve Stephens is 6’1 and weighs 244 pounds, with a bald head and a full beard, wearing dark blue and grey or a black striped polo shirt. He is driving a white or cream colored SUV. They locked two hospitals near the shooting and Cleveland State University.

“Suspect did broadcast the killing on Facebook Live and has claimed to have committed multiple other homicides which are yet to be verified,” CPD said. “Armed and dangerous. If seen call 9-1-1. Do not approach.”

Cleveland Police are searching for a man

Polls

easter

On Easter, we examine public opinion on Jesus and the God of the Christian Bible.

Religiosity may be on a verifiable decline in the U.S., but belief in God and the resurrection of Jesus Christ held steady over the last year to Easter 2017. For more than three years, People’s Pundit Daily has given a brief synopsis of polls relating to faith and religion, which along with an entire chapter in Our Virtuous Republic, continues to support a simple observation.

Americans’ views on God, specifically the tenets of Christianity, are not exactly in line with their views or confidence in the Church.

For instance, in 2014 a whopping 89% of Americans said they believed Jesus Christ actually walked the Earth roughly 2000 years-ago, but only 69% said he rose from the dead. Regarding the latter, that number has actually risen to roughly 75%. While Easter still may not be the most important holiday for Americans, half will still honor the resurrection by attending church.

That number has remained remarkably stable over the last three years.

What are Americans looking for when they attend church services?

According to a new survey conducted by Gallup, 76% of American Christians and Jews filling up churches and synagogues during Easter and Passover are looking for sermons or talks that teach them more about scripture. A similiar 75% are looking for sermons or lectures that help them connect religion to their own life. Sixty-four percent (64%) are looking to attend churches and synagogues that have spiritual programs geared toward children and teenagers.

Among adults who attended church, synagogue or a mosque growing up, but now seldom or never attend, a stunning 36% say a major factor is that they don’t like organized religion. Twenty-five percent (25%) say it’s a minor factor in why they no longer attend. Another 44% say the fact they prefer to worship on their own is a major factor in their decision, and 21% say it’s a minor factor.

A significant percentage–22% as a major factor and 24% as a minor–also say they haven’t found a church or other place of worship that you like. Similarly, they aren’t sure what religion is right for them, 22% and 24% say–respectively.

Put simply, Americans still love God. They just don’t love the institutions that claim to represent him. This is further supported by data reviews in Our Virtuous Republican, showing views on these institutions never recovered following scandals involving well-known evangelists and priest molestation in the Catholic Church.

PPD Battleground State Likely Voter Profiles also showed a slight increase in religiosity among Americans identified as most likely to vote, though it is unclear whether that is due to disproportionate participation or increase in identification.

RASMUSSEN REPORTS SURVEY METHODS

The survey on church attendance for Easter 2017 was conducted on 1,000 American adults during April 11-12, 2017 and has a +/- 3% margin of error, with a 95% level of confidence. The survey on belief in the resurrection was conducted on 1,000 American adults with the same error and confidence.

GALLUP SURVEY METHODS

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 9-29, 2017, with a random sample of 1,526 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of 745 adults who attend church or other house of worship at least monthly, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 532 adults who seldom or never attend church, the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Religiosity may be on a verifiable decline

World

North-Korean-Leader-Kim-Jong-Un

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends an emergency meeting on Thursday. (Photo: AFP – Getty Images)

North Korea attempted to launch another missile on Sunday, but U.S. Pacific Command said it “blew up almost immediately” and the test was a total failure. The test comes a day after the 105th birthday of the late North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, and as Japanese warships join the U.S. Navy battle fleet off the Korean peninsula.

“U.S. Pacific Command is fully committed to working closely with our allies in the Republic of Korea and in Japan to maintain security,” Cdr. Dave Benham said in a statement.

The type of missile was still being determined.

With the goal of successfully developing and testing a long-range nuclear missile that can reach the continental United States, North Korea launched a long-range rocket and conducted two nuclear tests last year, including its most powerful to date.

[wpdatatable id=92 table_view=regular]

North Korea attempted to launch another missile

People's Pundit Daily
You have %%pigeonMeterAvailable%% free %%pigeonCopyPage%% remaining this month. Get unlimited access and support reader-funded, independent data journalism.

Start a 14-day free trial now. Pay later!

Start Trial

Subscribe