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Economy

The Survey of Consumers final read on consumer sentiment for March fell from 101.0 to 89.1, the fourth largest decline in nearly a half-century and below the forecast.

A young woman consumer wearing a disposable medical mask while shopping at the supermarket during the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A young woman consumer wearing a disposable medical mask while shopping at the supermarket during the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The preliminary reading earlier in the month was 95.9. Forecasts ranged from a low of 80.0 to a high of 95.0. The consensus forecast was 92.0. Historically, the coronavirus-fueled level for the reading is still solid, but not for the Trump Administration, which has broken records.

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell 11.9 Index-points in March, rivaled only by the 12.7 decline in response to Great Recession in October 2008, and two declines of 12.2 points in response to the 1980 recession and Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.

“The Katrina decline was reversed within three months, and some observers compared that ‘V’ shaped economic episode to the expected impact of the coronavirus,” said Richard Curtain, chief economist for the Survey of Consumers.

“What didn’t show a ‘V’ shape response was the recovery of New Orleans, a closer comparison to today’s national economy.”

The 1980 and 2008 collapses in consumer confidence were followed by prolonged recessions.

A more comparable prior decline occurred in August 1990, when the Sentiment Index fell by 11.8 points due to the invasion of Kuwait, and subsequently recorded an all-time record gain of 17.3 points in March 1991. Those two outsized changes in the Sentiment Index defined the start and end of the 1990-91 recession. Just as in the 1990-91 episode, th

The Current Economic Conditions fell from 112.5 in the preliminary reading and 114.8 in February to 103.7. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell from 85.3 in the preliminary and 92.1 in February to 79.7.

“If the Consumer Sentiment Index were to stabilize at its most recent seven-day average, it would imply an additional decline of nearly 18.2 Index-points in April,” Mr. Curtain added.

That would result to a record setting two-month decline of 30.1 points. Stabilizing confidence at its month’s end level will be difficult for several reasons.

First, the bad news is not over. Second, unemployment and falling household incomes are surging.

In August 1990, when the Sentiment Index fell by 11.8 points due to the invasion of Kuwait, it posted an all-time record gain of 17.3 points in March 1991. That reversal marked the end of the 1990-91 recession.

“To avoid an extended recession, economic policies must quickly adapt to a new era that will reorder the spending and saving priorities of consumers as well as the relative roles of the public and private sectors in the U.S. economy,” Mr. Curtain concluded.

The Survey of Consumers final read on

Markets

Graphic concept of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) behind a black bull pointing to a green ascending chart symbolizing a bullish market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Graphic concept of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) behind a black bull pointing to a green ascending chart symbolizing a bullish market. (Photo: AdobeStock)

New York, New York (PPD) — The legendary Marty Zweig made famous the Wall Street axiom “Don’t fight the FED and Don’t fight the Tape”. While the “Tape” hasn’t existed in a natural form for many years, it should never be overlooked that the Stock Market remains the greatest predictive tool we have.

On Monday, March 23 the closing prices for the Major Market Averages hit their current lows for the Coronavirus selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at 18591.93. the S&P 500 (^SPX) at 2237.40, the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) at 6860.67, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) at 6703.63.

At the Monday lows, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ had declined from their all time highs in mid-February by -35%, -32% and -30%, respectively.

Since Monday, three trading days later, the (^DJI) rallied +21.3%, closing Thursday +1351.62 (6.38%) at 22552.17.

With the Dow (^DJI) closing above 22310.40 — more than +20% above the March 23 close — by definition this technically signals a new Bull Market.

That being said, I’m sure many market pundits and media magnets will wave it off as, ”yea, but it doesn’t really count ”. Or maybe we’ll hear the four most dangerous words on Wall Street, “It’s different this time”.

What’s the reality? In today’s worlds, anything is possible. Quoting one of my mentors from a few decades ago, “The data speaks for itself. Interpret it however you wish.”

The S&P 500 (^SPX) has rallied +17.5% in three days, and. +154.51 (6.24%) on Thursday to close at 2630.07. We would have to see a close of 2685 for the +20% threshold to be met.

The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) has rallied +14% since Monday and +413.24 (5.60%) on Thursday to close at 7797.54. The NASDAQ would have to close at 8233 or higher to hit the +20% marker.

The Russell 2000 (^RUT) closed Thursday at 1180.32, a +69.95 (6.30%) rally from the closing low last week. The low close for the Russell on March 18 of 991.16 was a -41.5% decline from the February 20 high of 1696.07. A close above 1190 would mark a +20% rally off the lows for the Russell 2000.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) closed +320.60 (4.15%) at 8045.47 on Thursday, a rally of +20.02% since Monday. The Transports had declined -40.7% from its recent highs in mid January.

What’s next?

The Coronavirus Epidemic, has sparked an unprecedented national response. The market response has reached historic levels of price reaction. While by this I mean volatility, I do not want to confuse action with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) as a metric of volatility.

Is it possible that the “Bear Market” we entered on March 11 really lasted only 13 or 14 trading days? Only time will tell.

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The Dow (^DJI) closing above 22310.40 —

Companies

Corporate Profits Rose 4.1%, or $53.0 Billion in Q4 2019

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported corporate profits rose 4.1%, or $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019. That compares to a 1.1% decline of $4.7 billion in Q3 2019.

The figures cover current production, or corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

There were no forecast ranges or consensus forecast to report.

A graphic concept for earnings season and corporate profits depicted by a 3D stock market ticker. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A graphic concept for earnings season and corporate profits depicted by a 3D stock market ticker. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Profits of domestic financial corporations rose $0.7 billion in Q4 2019 after declining by $4.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations gained $53.7 billion after declining by $5.5 billion.

Rest-of-the-world profits fell $1.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.5 billion. In Q4 2019, receipts increased $3.4 billion, and payments increased $4.8 billion.

In 2019, profits from current production were unchanged, compared with an increase of $68.7 billion in 2018. Profits of domestic financial corporations rose $7.1 billion, compared with a gain of $11.1 billion.

Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations fell $36.4 billion, after an increase of $10.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits gained $29.3 billion, compared with a gain of $47.6 billion.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported

Economy

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the third estimate for fourth-quarter (Q4) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 2.1%, a solid rate of growth that hit the consensus forecast. The third estimate is based on more data than the advance or second released in January and February.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 2.0% to a high of 2.1%. The consensus forecast was 2.1%.

GDP for Q2 2020 is expected to contract from a low of -20% to a high of -8% due to the mandated closures in the economy in response to the coronavirus.

In Q3 2019, Real GDP also rose by 2.1% and, if the second estimate holds until the third and final, Real GDP would come in at 2.3% annual-to-annual.

The internal revisions to Q4 GDP were driven by upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was largely offset by downward revisions to federal government spending and nonresidential fixed investment.

The increase in real GDP in Q4 was driven by contributions from PCE, exports, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment.

Imports, which slice from growth in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 2.6% in Q4, after an increase of 1.2% in Q3. The average of real GDP and real GDI — a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — rose 2.4% in Q4.

That’s up from an increase of 1.7% in Q3 2019.

Current‑dollar GDP rose 3.5%, or $186.6 billion to $21.73 trillion. In Q3, current-dollar GDP rose 3.8%, or $202.2 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases gained 1.4% in Q4, the same gain as Q3. The PCE price index rose 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5% in the previous quarter.

Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index gained 1.3%, down from an increase of 2.1%.

The third estimate for fourth-quarter (Q4) 2019

Economy

Coronavirus Crushes Strongest Labor Market in History

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose far more than expected to 3,283,000 for the week ending March 21, attributable to the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 282,000.

This is the highest level for initial jobless claims ever on record. Forecasts ranged from a low of 750,000 to a high of 2,737,000. The consensus forecast was 1,000,000.

The 4-week moving average was 998,250, an increase of 765,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 232,250 to 232,500.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending March 14, though that’s certain to change.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 14 was 1,803,000, rising 101,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 1,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,702,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,731,000, an increase of 27,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 1,703,250 to 1,703,500.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending March 7.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 7 were in Alaska (2.8), New Jersey (2.6), Connecticut (2.4), Rhode Island (2.3), West Virginia (2.3), Illinois (2.2), Minnesota (2.2), Montana (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.2), and Puerto Rico (2.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 14 were in California (+14,221), Washington (+7,624), Nevada (+4,047), Pennsylvania (+3,212), and Massachusetts (+2,737), while the largest decreases were in Arkansas (-461), Alabama (-341), Puerto Rico (-171), West Virginia (-168), and Maine (-81).

Initial jobless claims rose 3,001,000 to 3,283,000

Politics

Democrats Leverage Coronavirus Crisis for Giveaways

A graphic concept of the coronavirus on a yellow police tape against the backdrop of the Capitol Building in Washington DC. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A graphic concept of the coronavirus on a yellow police tape against the backdrop of the Capitol Building in Washington DC. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a historic $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill, ending deadlock and sending it to the U.S. House of Representatives.

The vote was 96 – 0.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the CARES Act, includes direct payments to most Americans, and a significant expansion of unemployment benefits. It also includes a $367 billion program for small businesses to meet payroll while workers are forced to stay home and $500 billion program for corporations in vital industries such as airlines.

While Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty., told reporters after the vote that the passage of the bill was bipartisan, he acknowledged the original bill was derailed at the last minute on Sunday.

“This Sunday, we had a bipartisan bill,” he said. “Then, the speaker and the minority leader came to my office and that slowed down the process.”

The bipartisan vote came after heated arguments not seen on Capitol Hill in decades. Last weekend, a deal had been struck until House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., returned to D.C. with a laundry list of last-minute, leftwing demands.

A smaller laundry list still ended up in the bill.

Democratic Provisions Unrelated to Coronavirus and Economy

  • Corporation for Public Broadcasting: $75 million
  • National Endowment for the Arts: $75 million
  • National Endowment for the Humanities: $75 million
  • Institute of Museum and Library Services: $50 million
  • The Kennedy Center: $25 million
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): $20 million
  • Legal Services Corporation: $50 million
  • Internal Revenue Service: $250 million
  • House of Representatives salaries and expenses: $25 million

The 880-page bill also includes at least $150 billion for the healthcare system, and an additional $100 billion for healthcare supplies. But it was what Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called “unemployment on steroids” that threatened to derail the bill again.

An amendment introduced by Republican Ben Sasse, R-Kan., would’ve prevented unemployment paying out more than workers made before being laid off. It also will result for the first time in unemployment benefits for a worker who quits.

They just has to “self-certify” that “the individual has to quit his or her job as a direct result of COVID-19.”

The provision, which was left intact after the amendment failed, will lead to prolonged periods of high unemployment by incentivizing many to remain out of the labor force until the end of the year.

“COVID-19 not only endangers our health, but has also presented the biggest economic challenge our nation has seen in a decade,” said Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., who gave an impassioned floor speech in support of the amendment, though ultimately voted for the bill.

“This package, while not perfect, will provide immediate financial assistance for those in need, help our small businesses keep their doors open, and keep our amazing health care providers safer.”

There are many other special interest giveaways for Democrats wholly unrelated to the coronavirus or the economic devastation it has caused.

Medium-sized businesses are required to remain neutral in union organizing, meaning they cannot oppose any union organizing campaign drives for the duration of a federal loan.

The Democrat-controlled U.S. House will not take up the bill until Friday. Democratic leadership promised to give members 24 hours to return to D.C.

453273118-Cares-Act-Final-TextDownload

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a historic

Politics

Ueland: ‘Ladies and Gentleman, We Are Done. We Have a Deal.’

A graphic concept of the coronavirus on a yellow police tape against the backdrop of the Capitol Building in Washington DC. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A graphic concept of the coronavirus on a yellow police tape against the backdrop of the Capitol Building in Washington DC. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The White House and U.S. Senate reached a historic deal on a massive $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill for workers and businesses. But support in the Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives remained uncertain.

“Ladies and gentleman, we are done,” White House legislative affairs director Eric Ueland announced as he left the office of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., shortly after midnight Wednesday. “We have a deal.”

The bipartisan breakthrough came after heated arguments not seen on Capitol Hill in decades. Last Thursday, a deal had been struck until House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., returned to D.C. with a laundry list of last-minute, leftwing demands that derailed passage.

The new economic relief bill includes direct payments to most Americans, a significant expansion of unemployment benefits. It includes a $367 billion program for small businesses to meet payroll while workers are forced to stay home and $500 billion program for corporations in vital industries such as airlines.

“Democrats are finally taking ‘yes’ for an answer,” Leader McConnell said in remarks on the floor of the U.S. Senate floor early Wednesday morning. “Help is on the way.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was all smiles when Leader McConnell left the floor of the U.S. Senate. However, he acknowledged the uncertain fate of the bill in the Democrat-controlled House, saying he hopes Speaker Pelosi “takes it up” and “passes as-is.”

“This is a very important bipartisan piece of legislation that is going to be very important to help American workers, American business and people across America,” Secretary Mnuchin said. “So, we couldn’t be more pleased. I’ve spoken to the president, many times today, and he’s very pleased with this legislation, and the impact that this is going to have.”

In a statement Wednesday morning, Speaker Pelosi said “House Democrats will now review the final provisions and legislative text of the agreement to determine a course of action.”

“This bipartisan legislation takes us a long way down the road in meeting the needs of the American people,” she wrote. “While the compromise does not go as far as our Take Responsibility for Workers and Families Act, thanks to the unity and insistence of Senate and House Democrats, the bill has moved a great deal closer to America’s workers.”

However, Speaker Pelosi has already caved to the far left once before and it’s unclear whether she will again under enormous pressure from collapsing industries and furious constituencies.

This story is developing and this article will be updated shortly.

The White House and U.S. Senate reached

Markets

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) from the street level view of Wall Street Nassau Street during the Conoravirus (COVID-19) outbreak on March 18, 2020. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily)
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) from the street level view of Wall Street Nassau Street during the Conoravirus (COVID-19) outbreak on March 18, 2020. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)

Equity markets staged a strong relief rally Tuesday fueled by the likelihood of a $2 trillion economic relief package, and optimism from President Trump that the nation could begin to return to work by mid April.

While Tuesdays rally stalled the “death spiral” of relentless liquidation for one day, keep in mind we had a similar rally less than 2 weeks ago on March 13. That one-day-wonder was abruptly erased and then some, by declines the following day of 50% greater than the prior days gains.

The old Wall Street adage of “What have you done for me lately” will definitely be in force today. Early morning gains of +2% to +3% on stock index futures have already been reversed by 7:00 am. While it’s always a challenge to have a follow-through rally after a day of outsized gains, we’d be encouraged by at least holding a decent chunk of the relief rally from yesterday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI); 20704.91, posted the largest point gain in history, +2112.98, Tuesday and largest percentage gain, +11.4% since 1933. It was the fourth largest percentage gain on record for the Blue Chip Index, exceeded only by gains of +12.3% in 1929, +14.9% in 1931, and +15.3% in 1933.

The S&P 500 (^SPX) rallied +209.93 or 9.4% to close at 2,447.33. That’s the second +200 point gain in less than 2 weeks. On March 13, the +230.31 gain was very short lived, and followed up by a -324.89 decline on Monday, March 16.

The S&P 500 has not logged back to back gains since February 11 and 12. As pleasant as the market gains were on Tuesday, a flowthrough rally today would do wonders for investor sentiment that the lows from the last few days may hold.

The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) settled at 7417.86, a gain of +557.18 or 8.1%. While this trailed gains from the DJIA and S&P 500 by a noticeable amount, chalk it up to a bit of mean reversion. Heading into Tuesday, the technology heavy NASDAQ had declined -30% from its February high much less than the -33% and -35% declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA.

The Russell 2000 (^RUT) rallied +94.12, or +9.4% to close at 1096.54. Even with Tuesdays rally the Russell is more than -35% below its February peak of 1696.07.

The small cap index has underperformed even the DJ Transports during this selloff. We will be watching the Russell 2000 closely the remainder of the month to see if it can chip away at any of its recent underperformance.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average; DJTA posted a gain of +837.17, or +12.5% to close at 7567.06. The Transport average has been a literal killing field of Airlines, Shipping companies, and Rails being crushed by a near total halt in travel and countless supply line interruptions.

That being said, some Truckers have been aided of late by the manic “Pantry Trade” sweeping the nation. Households have swarmed everything from big box stores to local bodegas, loading up on basic household supplies, cleaning products and non perishable food stuffs. Restocking has been constant and truckers have been busy.

We’d like to see the Transports move above the 8200 level to be comfortable that this is more than a 1 day “dead cat” bounce fueled by a lot of short covering.

Equity markets staged a strong relief rally

Markets

Dow Leads Historic Rally With Fourth Largest Percentage Gain Ever

Graphic concept of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) in the green for gains. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) soared to the largest point gain in history on Tuesday. The index was the percentage leader for a historic market rally fueled by hopes the country would soon return to work and lawmakers would reach an agreement on legislation to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19).

The Dow Jones (^DJI) closed up +2,112.98 points, or 11.37% at 20,704.91, exceeding the record +1,985.00-point gain on March 13, 2020. Eight of the 10 largest point gains for the Dow Jones have occurred under the Trump Administration.

It is the fourth largest percentage gain for the Blue Chip Index, exceeded only by +12.34-point gain in 1929, a +14.87-point gain in 1931 and a +15.34-point gain in 1933.

The S&P 500 (^SPX) rallied +209.93 points to close 9.38% higher at 2,447.33. That’s the best day since 2008 for the S&P 500, the second largest point gain and the ninth largest percentage gain in history.

The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closed up +557.18 points, or 8.12% to 7,417.86. That’s the second largest point gain in history for the index and ties the seventh largest percentage gain.

The Russell 2000 (^RUT) rallied +86.50 points, or 8.63% to close at 1,088.91.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s uncertainty gauge is moving — both up and down — like never before in history.

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) spiked last week to a record high close amid recession/depression fears driven by the coronavirus pandemic. It was the largest six-day gain on record.

Now, the opposite is occurring.

Since closing at a record 82.69 last week, the VIX tumbled below 60. On Tuesday, it closed up +0.08, or 0.13% at 61.67. That collapse for the VIX is rivaled only by a period marked as the worst of the financial crisis in November 2008.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) soared

Elections

DNC Received Bloomberg’s Resources Initially Promised to Pro-Biden Organization, Staffers Lost Jobs

Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor and 2020 Democratic candidate, at the Democratic debate in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo: Screenshot)
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor and 2020 Democratic candidate, at the Democratic debate in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo: Screenshot)

Last week, Michael Bloomberg tossed plans to construct an independent  organization to support Joe Biden and will instead donate the resources to the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The billionaire former mayor of New York City will now transfer $18 million from his self-funded political committee to help prop up the financially-challenged DNC.

The decision to renege on the plans, which he said during a conference call was because of “how much the world has changed since Super Tuesday,” will lay off the rest of his staff. It also represents the breaking of promises for guaranteed employment.

Bloomberg had promised staffers employment through the November election, despite the fate of his campaign.

Documents obtained by Politico promised staff that “regardless of what happened, field organizers could expect to have a job with ‘Team Bloomberg’ through November.”

It guaranteed organizers “$6,000 a month, plus a $5,000 relocation stipend and full health, dental and vision benefits.” In reality, staffers received their final paychecks at the end of March, though he allowed them to keep their phones and laptops valued between $1,400 and $1,700.

Campaign employees were told to apply for jobs in any one of the six swing states in which the new independent organization would be working to elect Joe Biden — Arizona, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

“It is imperative that we invest there with staff and infrastructure,” the Bloomberg campaign said in a statement in February. “Staff who were working in non-battleground states and would like to learn about future opportunities in the battleground states are being asked to let us know so we can consider them for jobs there.”

But that ended up just another broken promise.

Worth noting, Bloomberg — who paid his staffers twice what other campaigns were paying — spent more than $500 million to win just 64 delegates. He dropped out after Super Tuesday and endorsed Joe Biden.

However, it’s no secret Bloomberg has no confidence in Joe Biden or his ability to defeat Donald Trump in November. That’s the entire reason he entered the race in the first place, banking on a strategy that required his total implosion.

“I don’t think any of them have the experience to do it,” Bloomberg told MSNBC, adding specifically about Joe Biden that “he’s never been the manager of an organization.”

“He’s never run a school system.”

“No, I don’t think any of them… the presidency shouldn’t be a training job. You get in there and you need to hit the ground running.”

For a few weeks, Bloomberg was gaining on Biden in the polls, largely the result of African American Democratic primary voters losing confidence in the frontrunner. But the debates proved too challenging for Bloomberg and he collapsed before votes were cast.

Michael Bloomberg tossed plans to construct an

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