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An employee counts Russian ruble banknotes at a private company's office in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, December 17, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

An employee counts Russian ruble banknotes at a private company’s office in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, December 17, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The Russian Ruble (RUBUSD) has had a nice run over the past few months, surging from its low of around 80 (RUB) ⇨ US Dollar ($) to a recent 58 handle. There have been many factors supporting the currency, not the least of which is a surging Russian economy pulling its way out of recession.

The other major reason for the ruble’s strong performance has been the rise in the price of crude oil on international markets. Brent broke through $56 a barrel in recent weeks and this drove the ruble deeper into the $50 range. However, what the market giveth, it can take away. As expected, U.S. shale oil producers have come online with higher prices and have slammed crude back towards the $50 range; WTI actually broke the psychological $50 barrier to the downside.

Putin has either been skillful or lucky in shepherding the Russian economy through the recent recession and crisis, probably a little of both. He has allowed the central bank to float the currency rather than destroying Russian reserves in order to support it. The Bank of Russia has actually been slowly increasing reserves, attempting to replenish the billions it spent buying rubles and giving money from rainy day funds to the Kremlin to plug the federal budget deficit during the economic troubles.

In our opinion, the price of crude oil will be rangebound for a while. The wells in North Dakota are already dug and can be turned on rather easily to bring production onto the market. In spite of what OPEC and Russia do, they cannot control North American production levels. The Bakken and other fields are acting like a wet blanket on the price of crude. This will cause problems for Russia in the long run.

The days of using oil as a nuclear weapon in geopolitics are gone. Russia has a long way to go to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbons. The Kremlin will pay the price for this inaction if oil continues to decline. The ruble will fall again back towards the high $60 range.

The Kremlin may see this as a blessing in disguise as Russia sells oil in dollars and more rubles help fill holes in the budget. However, long term, Russians may not see a higher ruble and a return to the hay days of traveling Europe with a $28 ruble any time soon.

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The Russian Ruble (RUBUSD) has had a

President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the Boeing plant in North Charleston, South Carolina.

President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the Boeing plant in North Charleston, South Carolina.

We have reached the 50th full day of the Trump Presidency. In that span of time, we’ve had lots of political wrangling between Trump and the media. We’ve been introduced to the concept of the “Deep State” (yes, there is a permanent bureaucracy that acts to protect its own interests, but it’s silly to call it a conspiracy). There have been some controversial executive orders. And Trump made his big speech to Congress.

Lots of noise, though, does not mean lots of action. The President hasn’t signed any big legislation to repeal Obamacare, or even any legislation to tinker with Obamacare. There haven’t been any big changes on fiscal policy, either with regards to spending or taxes.

Heck, Trump hasn’t even told us what he really thinks on some of these issues.

In other words, the biggest takeaway after 50 days is that we still don’t know whether Trump is going to make government bigger or smaller.

I address some of these issues in two recent interviews. We’ll start with this discussion on the day of Trump’s Joint Address. I mostly focus on the need for entitlement reform and explain how Trump could do the right thing for America…if he wants to.

[brid video=”120884″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell on Trump Entitlements and the Burden of Government Spending”]

You’ll also notice, right at the end of the interview, that I made sure to sneak in a reference to fiscal policy’s Golden Rule. Gotta stay on message!

In this second interview, which occurred a couple of days later, I start the conversation by fretting about how the border-adjustable tax could kill the chances of getting good tax policy.

[brid video=”120883″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell on Trump Tax Cuts and Infrastructure”]

In the latter part of the interview, the discussion shifts to infrastructure and I make the rare point that we should copy Europe and get the private sector more involved (it’s generally a good idea to do the opposite of Europe, to be sure, but there are a small handful of other areas – including corporate tax rates, Social Security, and privatized postal services – where various European countries are ahead of us).

The bottom line is that we didn’t know before the election whether Trump wants to limit the burden of government, and we still don’t know today. My guess last year was that we’ll get the wrong answer, though I confess that the jury is still out.

Mitchell: The biggest takeaway after reaching the

Georgian servicemen stand in front of U.S. military vehicles upon the joint U.S.-Georgian exercise Noble Partner 2016 in Vaziani, Georgia, May 5, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Georgian servicemen stand in front of U.S. military vehicles upon the joint U.S.-Georgian exercise Noble Partner 2016 in Vaziani, Georgia, May 5, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

What area of the world smolders with the threat of all-out war, with soldiers on both sides dying intermittently, where all the combatants are flush with new Russian weapons, and where the world’s great Cold War powers back opposite sides? You have probably not heard of the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the Caucasus, which has been a ‘frozen conflict’ since before the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. That could change rather quickly.

The conflict shakes out basically upon ethnic lines, not religious ideology. In short, the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis both want the same territory that lies between their two countries. The Soviet occupation forced a reduction in the all-out fighting but the tension simmered below the surface for decades, finally erupting in the late 1980s and ’90s. A fragile cease-fire has held since before the turn of the Millennium. However, oil-rich Azerbaijan has been spending a lot of that oil money on weapons. Inexplicably Russia, hard up for foreign currency, has been only too happy to sell them to the adversary, Azerbaijan, of its close ally, Armenia. The two-decade conflict has killed over 30,000 people, soldiers and civilians alike.

The fragile ceasefire broke into open armed conflict in April of last year and lasted for four days until a armistice was brokered by Russia. Since then, tensions have not improved, only gotten worse.

France has gotten into the action as well, inviting Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to Paris last week to discuss possible solutions. French President Hollande said,”we want to work and find solutions” to avoid a repeat of recent violence, reports AP.

“The danger of a new war is constant and will persist until Azerbaijan is persuaded that there is no military solution to the conflict,” Sarkisian told AFP in an interview ahead of a visit to France. He said Azerbaijan will not start a war if Armenia fulfills its demands. I said that this is blackmail, not a compromise.”

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Sarkisian urged Paris, Moscow, and Washington to “show what price one of the sides will pay if it initiates an attack…That will have a sobering effect,” he said.

The Armenians sense an emboldened Azerbaijan, armed with modern weapons, that wants to gain further territory it lost late in the twentieth century.

Russia is closely allied with Armenia and has troops stationed in the country since the days of the Soviet Union. Russian troops actually patrol the Armenian border with Iran and Turkey. Russian commanders in the region have said they will come to Armenia’s aid if Azerbaijan attempts to take territory in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan is allied with Turkey and Turkey is very angry with Armenia for wanting the slaughter of Armenians during the Ottoman Empire labelled as genocide.

Relations between Turkey and Russia plummeted over a year ago when Ankara shot down a Russian jet that had veered into its territory while attacking a Syrian position, killing one of its crew members. Since then, Russia and Turkey have grown closer, mainly due to the realization that they need each other economically and Turkey wanted to distance itself from the European Union.

However, the clear fact is that Turkey and Russia support different sides in the conflict. Turkey is a member of NATO and has the support of the United States if attacked. If conflict erupts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan takes additional territory, will Russia respond militarily? And if so, How would Erdogan react?

Could the rest of the world be drawn into war? The “frozen” conflicts of the Soviet Union still create the opportunity for death and destruction from Ukraine, to South Ossetia, to the Caucasus. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue seems especially deserving of the international communities attention to prevent it spinning out of control.

This article first appeared on Tsarizm.com, news you need to know RIGHT NOW about Russia, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

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Could the rest of the world be

obamacare-obama-lie

President Obama depicted in front of an American flag in reference to his signature healthcare law, ObamaCare.

A couple of years ago, filled with disgust at the sleazy corruption of the federal Leviathan, I put forth a simple explanation for what happens in Washington, DC.

I call it the “First Theorem of Government,” and I think it accurately reflects the real purpose and operation of government. Except I probably should have added lobbyists and contractors. And it goes without saying (though I probably should have said it anyhow) that politicians are the main beneficiaries of this odious racket.

mitchells-first-theorem-of-government

I think this theorem has stood the test of time. It works just as well when Republicans are in charge as it does when Democrats are in charge.

But it doesn’t describe everything.

For instance, Republicans have won landslide elections in recent years by promising that they will repeal ObamaCare the moment they’re in charge. Well, now they control both Congress and the White House and their muscular rhetoric has magically transformed into anemic legislation.

This is very disappointing and perhaps I’ll share some of Michael Cannon’s work in future columns about the policy details, but today I want to focus on why GOP toughness has turned into mush.

In part, this is simply a reflection of the fact the rhetoric of politicians is always bolder than their legislation (I didn’t agree with 98 percent of what was said by Mario Cuomo, the former Governor of New York, but he was correct that “You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.”)

But that’s just a small part of the problem. The real issue is that it’s relatively easy for GOP politicians to battle against proposed handouts and it’s very difficult to battle against existing handouts. That’s because government goodies are like a drug. Recipients quickly get hooked and they will fight much harder to preserve handouts than they will to get them in the first place.

And that’s the basic insight of the “Second Theorem of Government.”

Second Theorem of Government

Here’s a recent interview on FBN. The topic is the Republican reluctance to fully repeal Obamacare. I only got two soundbites, and they both occur in the first half of the discussion, but you can see why I was motivated to put forth the new theorem.

Simply stated, I’m disappointed, but I’m more resigned than agitated because this development was so sadly predictable.

[brid video=”120771″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell discussing GOP Obamacare Reform Effort”]

And here are a couple of follow-up observations. I guess we’ll call them corollaries to the theorem.

  1. You break it, you buy it – Government intervention had screwed up the system well before Obamacare was enacted, but people now blame the 2010 law (and the Democrats who voted for it) for everything that goes wrong with healthcare. Republicans fear that all the blame will shift to them if their “Repeal and Replace” legislation is adopted.
  2. Follow the money – What’s partly driving GOP timidity is their desire not to anger many of the interest groups – such as state governments, hospitals, doctors, insurance companies, etc – who benefit from various Obamacare handouts. That’s what is motivating criticism for politicians such as Ohio’s John Kasich and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski.
  3. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater – The “Cadillac Tax” is the one part of Obamacare that’s worth preserving because it will slowly cut back on the distorting tax preferences that lead to over-insurance and third-party payer. For what it’s worth, the GOP plan retains that provision, albeit postponed until 2025.
  4. The switch in time that saved…Obamacare – I’m still upset that Chief Justice John Roberts (aka, the reincarnation of Justice Roberts) put politics above the Constitution by providing the decisive vote in the Supreme Court decision that upheld Obamacare. If the law had been blocked before the handouts began, we wouldn’t be in the current mess.

For these reasons (as well as other corollaries to my theorem), I’m not brimming with optimism that we’ll get real Obamacare repeal this year. Or even substantive Obamacare reform.

P.S. Now you know what I speculated many years ago that Obamacare would be a long-run victory for the left even though Democrats lost many elections because of it. I sometimes hate when I’m right.

Republicans have won landslide elections in recent

A reviewing stand is seen outside of the White House for the upcoming presidential inauguration in Washington, U.S., January 15, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A reviewing stand is seen outside of the White House for the upcoming presidential inauguration in Washington, U.S., January 15, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A person was arrested late Friday after they scaled a fence and got on the south grounds of the White House, the Secret Service confirmed.

The incident occurred at about 11:38 p.m. Friday when an unidentified person scaled an outer-perimeter fence while President Donald J. Trump was at the White House. The Secret Service also said it was near the southeast side by the Treasury Building and was arrested without incident by an officer in the agency’s Uniformed Division.

The person was carrying a backpack and was not identified. Secret Service said a search of the backpack and the grounds found nothing.

President Trump said Saturday afternoon that he appreciates the Secret Service efforts and that the accused is disturbed.

A person was arrested late Friday after

conservative-vs-liberal-reagan-vs-obama

President Ronald Reagan, left, the conservative standard-bearer with deep libertarian notes, and President Barack Obama, right, who wants to be the liberal big government standard-bearer, with deep modern liberal notes, which Reagan said resembles fascism.

What’s the right way to define good tax policy? There are several possible answers to that question, including the all-important observation that the goal should be to only collect the amount of revenue needed to finance the legitimate functions of government, and not one penny above that amount.

But what if we want a more targeted definition? A simple principle to shape our understanding of tax policy?

I’m partial to what I wrote last year.

…the essential insight of supply-side economics…when you tax something, you get less of it.

I’m not claiming this is my idea, by the way. It’s been around for a long time.
Ronald Reagan Quote Taxes

Indeed, it’s rumored that Reagan shared a version of this wisdom.

I don’t know if the Gipper actually said those exact words, but his grasp of tax policy was very impressive. And the changes he made led to very good results, even if folks on the left still refuse to believe the IRS data showing that Reagan’s lower tax rates on the rich generated more revenue.

In any event, our friends on the nanny-state left actually understand this principle when it suits their purposes. They propose sugar taxes, soda taxes, carbon taxes, housing taxes, tanning taxes, tobacco taxes, and even “adult entertainment” taxes with the explicit goal of using the tax code to reduce the consumption of things they don’t like.

I don’t like the idea of government trying to dictate people do with their own money, but these so-called sin taxes generally are successful because supply-siders are right about taxes impacting incentives.

But that doesn’t mean it’s always popular when statist governments impose such policies. At least not in Belarus, according to a story from RFERL.

Protests over a new tax aimed at reducing social welfare spread beyond the Belarusian capital, as thousands took to the streets in Homel and other towns. Along with similar protests two days earlier in Minsk, the February 19 demonstrations were some of the largest in the country in years. In Homel, near the border with Russia, at least 1,000 people marched and chanted slogans against the measure, known as the “Law Against Social Parasites.”

But what are “social parasites” and what does the law do?

…the law…requires people who were employed fewer than 183 days in a calendar year to pay a tax of about $200. …The measure is aimed at combating what President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has called “social parasitism.”

For what it’s worth, the Washington Post reports that the government had to back down.

The protesters won. On Thursday, Lukashenko announced that he won’t enforce the measure this year, though he’s not scrapping it. “We will not collect this money for 2016 from those who were meant to pay it,” he told the state news agency Belta. Those who have already paid will get a rebate if they get a job this year. The law, signed into effect in 2015, is reminiscent of Soviet-era crackdowns against the jobless, who undermined the state’s portrayal of a “workers’ paradise.”

That’s good news.

If people can somehow survive without working (assuming they’re not mooching off taxpayers, which is something that should be discouraged), more power to them. It’s not the life I would want, but it’s not the role of government to tax them if they don’t work. Or if they simply choose to work 182 days per year.

Mr. Lukashenko should concentrate instead on taking the heavy foot of government off the neck of his people. According to the most-recent Index of Economic Freedom, Belarus is only ranked #104, with especially weak scores for “rule of law” and “open markets.”

If he turns his country into a Slavic version of Hong Kong, based on free markets and small government, people will be clamoring to work. But I’m not holding my breath expecting that to happen.

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What if we want a more targeted

Attorney General Jeff Sessions speaks at the Justice Department in Washington, March 2, 2017.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions speaks at the Justice Department in Washington, March 2, 2017.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has formally asked for the resignations of the 46 remaining presidential appointees at the Department of Justice (DoJ), PPD has confirmed.

The department described the decision as a “uniform transition” and noted how many appointees had already left, as was the case with previous administrations.

“the Attorney General has now asked the remaining 46 presidentially appointed U.S. Attorneys to tender their resignations,” a spokeswoman said. “Until the new U.S. Attorneys are confirmed, the dedicated career prosecutors in our U.S. Attorney’s Offices will continue the great work of the Department in investigating, prosecuting, and deterring the most violent offenders.”

UPDATE: Worth noting, Big Media is painting this decision as a purge. In truth, Bill Clinton not only fired all political appointees at the Justice Department in his first week but he fired them all on the same day.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has formally asked

President Barack Obama meets with South Korean President Park Geun-hye, Friday, Oct. 16, 2015, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo)

President Barack Obama meets with South Korean President Park Geun-hye, Friday, Oct. 16, 2015, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo)

South Korea’s top court removed President Park Geun-hye from office after her impeachment on corruption charges, adding more uncertainty to the peninsula. Her removal from office sets the stage for a contentious presidential election follows rising tensions between the nation and their neighbor North Korea.

The eight justices on the Constitutional Court unanimously voted to remove Ms. Park for committing “acts that violated the Constitution and laws” throughout her time in office, Acting Chief Justice Lee Jung-mi said, adding she “betrayed the trust of the people and were of the kind that cannot be tolerated for the sake of protecting the Constitution.”

Ms. Park and her conservative party took a strong, confrontational stance on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. But now more appeasing liberals will likely benefit politically from her fall from power at a time when Pyongyang is carrying out an unprecedented number of ballistic missile tests.

In December, lawmakers in South Korea voted to impeach her, marking the beginning of the end for the nation’s first female leader once dubbed the “Queen of Elections” for pulling off wins for her party. Park’s single, five-year term was originally set to end Feb. 24, 2018.

South Korean law requires that an election be carried out within 60 days, and the United States has rushed a missile defense system to the peninsula that the liberals oppose and is likely to serve as a hot-button campaign issue.

South Korea’s top court removed President Park

new-home-construction

Contractor working in new home construction. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 235,000 new jobs in February and the unemployment rate fell, beating expectations for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7% from 4.8%, while the labor force participation rate edged up slightly to 63% from 62.9% in January.

A tightening job market is finally starting to put upward pressure on stubborn wage growth, but it came in a little below the median forecast. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.2% in February from the prior month and wages were up 2.8% from a year earlier.

Worth noting, the underlaying data inside the report indicates the rise in wages will likely continue and could even improve. The number of Americans employed part-time for economic reasons– otherwise known as involuntary part-time workers–fell from 6,226,000 to 6,106,000 and the quality of jobs created this month showed improvement.

The economy added 58,000 construction jobs in February, with gains in specialty trade contractors (+36,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+15,000). There have been been 177,000 jobs added in construction over the past 6 months, but this is the single largest 1-month gain since the Great Recession.

December, the final full month of the Obama presidency, was revised down considerably to show a gain of just 155,000 jobs.

Manufacturing added 28,000 jobs in February, with employment rose in food manufacturing (+9,000) and machinery (+7,000) leading the charge. Over the past 3 months, manufacturing has added just 57,000 jobs, meaning the pace under the new administration has picked up. Mining jobs increased by 8,000 in February, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+6,000). Mining employment reached a low as recent as October 2016.

The broad-based optimism in the jobs report all but ensures the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates the when they meet next week. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said last week the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) would “evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.”

Ms. Yellen said inflation “seemed to be moving” (Fed target is 2% annual) and that monthly jobs gains in the range of 75,000 to 125,000 would be consistent with underlying population growth. However, that was not an entirely accurate statement. The consensus number is closer to 250,000, which indicates even this jobs report needs to pick up more.

Still, the labor market in February far outpaced her self-imposed level and we now have new evidence of firming wage growth, as well.

On Thursday, the ADP National Employment Report found the private sector added 298,000 jobs in February, far more than the 190,000 expected by economists for the month. The ADP report offers renewed optimism for wages, as job creation not only exceeded expectations but was also broad-based.

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The Labor Department said the U.S. economy

Palestinian activist Rasmieh Yousef Odeh, left,  Sharia activist Linda Sarsour, center, and billionaire former Nazi sympathizer George Soros, right. (Photos: Reuters)

Palestinian activist Rasmieh Yousef Odeh, left, Sharia activist Linda Sarsour, center, and billionaire former Nazi sympathizer George Soros, right. (Photos: Reuters)

Big Media paints them as a mainstream movement, but the anti-Trump “women’s rights” events are funded by George Soros and organized by Sharia supporters and terrorists. The groups behind latest “Day Without a Woman” event, which took place on Wednesday for “International Women’s Day,” received $246 million from billionaire George Soros.

Soros, a financier and former Nazi sympathizer, has played a key role in in the so-called “resistance” against President Donald J. Trump.

According to the conservative Media Research Center, the march’s 544 partners, 100 groups received funding from Soros that totaled $246 million, including Planned Parenthood, the Center for American Progress and People for the American Way (PFAW).

“Those donations represent just a fragment of Soros’ massive global influence,” the Media Research Center said on its website. “His Open Society Foundations have given away more than $13 billion to push his globalist, anti-American views.”

Let’s put a few faces to the movement, which include a Sharia law supporter and activist.

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Activist Linda Sarsour addresses the crowd during a protest against President Donald Trump's travel ban, in New York City, U.S. Jan. 29. (Photo: Reuters)

Activist Linda Sarsour addresses the crowd during a protest against President Donald Trump’s travel ban, in New York City, U.S. Jan. 29. (Photo: Reuters)

Linda Sarsour, one of the main organizers of the Women’s March on Washington and a pro-sharia law Palestinian-American activist, was arrested in New York at a follow-up event on International Women’s Day. Sarsour, an outspoken supporter of Sharia law and the anti-Israel Boycott, Divest and Sanctions movement, pretends to be a moderate and claims to be a women’s rights activist. But her actions adn tweets tell a different tale.

“sharia law is reasonable and once u read into the details itmakes a lot of sense. People just know the basics.”

“Sharia law is misunderstood & has been pushed as some evil Muslim agenda.”

“If you are still paying interest than Sharia Law hasn’t taken over America. #justsaying.”

“You’ll know when you’re living under Sharia Law if suddenly all your loans & credit cards become interest free. Sound nice, doesn’t it?”

The Women’s March group said they will “always have her back” after a tweet surfaced in which she expressed a desire to conduct a grotesque of violence toward Brigitte Gabriel Ayaan Hirsi Ali, two outspoken critics Sharia and its real-world impact on women.

“She’s asking 4 an @$$ whippin’,” she tweeted. “I wish I could take their vaginas away – they don’t deserve to be women.” Ayaan Hirsi Ali is a victim of female genital mutilation at age eight. It is a common and horrific act practiced by Muslim Islamists, during which they cut out the clitoris and labia, a process usually without preparation or anaesthetic. The wound is sewn up, so scar tissue forms to largely close the vaginal opening and leaving the victim to suffer lifelong pain and complications

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[brid video=”120488″ player=”2077″ title=”Activist calls women&#39s march organizer a &#39fake feminist&#39″]

This is a movement organizers say is meant to spotlight on gender inequality, critics say it is intended to protest President Donald Trump. The strike was created by the same organizers of the historic Women’s March on Washington in January, which drew hundreds of thousands in protest of the president.

Palestinian activist Rasmieh Yousef Odeh. (Photo: Reuters)

Palestinian activist Rasmieh Yousef Odeh. (Photo: Reuters)

Rasmea Yousef Odeh, a Palestinian activist who was convicted in a 1969 Jerusalem terrorist bombing that left two Israeli men dead, was another lead organizer. She was released 10 years later as part of a controversial prisoner exchange.

“So, here we are in 2017 and a convicted terrorist who murdered two people with impunity (even Odeh’s cousin confirmed in a documentary that she was responsible for the attack) is a leading figure in the contemporary women’s movement,” said Willem Hart in an op-ed on the B’nai B’rith Canada website.

In December 2016, a federal judge in Detroit granted a new trial for her in an immigration fraud case for failing to disclose that she had been convicted and imprisoned in Israel.

“And, just as Linda Sarsour’s political agenda was given credence in January, not to mention landing an audience of millions of people, now yet another vehemently anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, and antisemitic ‘activist’ will be given a platform to spew her radical ideologies,” Mr. Hart added.

Does this movement sound like it represents mainstream American women?

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Big Media paints them as mainstream, but

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