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Economy, Markets

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City November 10, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City November 10, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. markets rallied Thursday to new record highs after President Donald J. Trump said a “phenomenal” announcement on tax reform would come within weeks. All three major averages touched new highs and investors proclaimed “the rally is back on.”

“The bounce in markets today reminds us that it is never wise to underestimate the strength of a bull market,” said IG Chief Market Analysts Chris Beauchamp. “A fresh all-time high in the S&P 500 could be taken as proof that the rally is back on.”

As of 3:38 3:38 PM EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) gained 125 points, or 0.63% to 20,179.74. But it climbed as high as 20,204 at 2:36 PM EST.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) increased 33.67 points, or 0.59% to 5,716.12.  It hit 5721 at 11:46 AM EST.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) gained 13.76 points, or 0.60% to 2308.37. The high on the day was 2,310.60.

The markets have surged since the president’s surprise victory–at least to investors and pundits–and subsequent promise of tax and regulatory reform. Having an inverse relationship with equities, safe-haven Gold ended the session down 0.2% at $1,235 a troy ounce.

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U.S. markets rallied Thursday to new record

Politics

President Donald J. Trump receives a figurine of a sheriff during a meeting with county sheriffs at the White House. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald J. Trump receives a figurine of a sheriff during a meeting with county sheriffs at the White House. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald J. Trump signed three executive orders on Thursday aimed at supporting law enforcement and arresting the increase in violent crime in America. The president took action just one day after the he met with county sheriffs at the White House and only hours after U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was sworn into office by Vice President Mike Pence.

“After the attorney general swearing in, the president signed 3 executive orders dedicated to standing behind the police officers who risk their lives everyday to protect us in our communities,”  White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said at a press conference on Thursday. “We must better protect those who protect us.”

The president’s first order–titled, Presidential Executive Order on Preventing Violence Against Federal, State, Tribal, and Local Law Enforcement Officers–instructs the attorney general to work on more effective ways to prosecute those who commit acts of violence and other crimes against law enforcement officials. It asks the Justice Department (DOJ) to “develop a strategy for the Department’s use of existing Federal laws to prosecute individuals who commit or attempt to commit crimes of violence against Federal, State, tribal, and local law enforcement officers.”

At the meeting on Wednesday at the White House, the nation’s county sheriff’s protested the Obama’s administrations treatment in the face of widespread condemnation from the media and activist groups. Several shootings, whether justified or not, were raised to national prominence by the media. Restoring law and order was a major part of President Trump’s campaign and a centerpiece in his both his nomination acceptance speech, as well as his inaugural address.

“Law enforcement officials have been vocal about the lack of support they had from the past administration,” Spicer said.

The second executive order establishes a Task Force on Crime Reduction and Public Safety to develop “strategies to reduce crime, including, in particular, illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and violent crime.”

Structured by Attorney General Sessions, the Justice Department must submit at least one report to President Trump within 1 year from today, the date of the new order. Subsequent reports are to be required at least once per year while the Task Force remains in existence.

“Together, the members of this task force will come up with specific recommendations,” Mr. Spicer said. “Over the last 8 years, we’ve experienced a declining focus on law and order.”

The third and final order–titled, Enforcing Federal Law with Respect to Transnational Criminal Organizations and Preventing International Trafficking–targets cartels and transnational criminal organizations that are engaged in and derive revenue from human and drug trafficking. It directs the Justice Department “to identify, interdict, disrupt, and dismantle transnational criminal organizations and subsidiary organizations.”

It aims to “strengthen enforcement of Federal law in order to thwart transnational criminal organizations and subsidiary organizations, including criminal gangs, cartels, racketeering organizations, and other groups engaged in illicit activities that present a threat to public safety and national security.

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President Donald J. Trump on Thursday signed

Polls

President Donald J. Trump signs an executive order to impose tighter vetting of travelers entering the United States on January 27, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

President Donald J. Trump signs an executive order to impose tighter vetting of travelers entering the United States on January 27, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

A solid majority still supports President Donald J. Trump’s temporarily travel ban on 7 Muslim-majority nations identified as high-risk terror havens.

A new PPD Poll conducted from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8, based on 1392 interviews via the People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) Internet Polling Panel, found 56% support “President Trump’s executive order imposing an immigration moratorium for 7 Muslim-majority nations identified as hotbeds for Islamic terrorists until the U.S. can put in place ‘extreme vetting’ procedures.”

Only 38% opposed it.

“Most Americans don’t believe the order is a Muslim ban–as some in the media have portrayed it–and views have held surprisingly steady since December,” Richard Baris, PPD’s editor-in-chief who heads up the PPD Poll said. “Nearly two-thirds of the county aren’t buying that argument.”

Sixty-two percent of Americans do not believe the president’s order is a Muslim ban, but 35% say it is. For the record, the order does not impact nearly 9 in 10 Muslims worldwide and excludes the world’s largest Muslim nations. The poll omitted those facts from the survey.

The results are nearly identical to the previous PPD Poll conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 1. However, even as the topline numbers are essentially unchanged, there’s a noticeable demographic shift when scrutinizing the data beneath the surface.

“Black voters showed a significant change in their opinion of the order and they now support it at a higher rate,” Mr. Baris added. “But it was offset somewhat by a 6-point decline in support among voters who self-identify as Asian or Other, as well as a slight decline among white voters.”

Worth noting, black voters, specifically black men between the ages of 30 and 54, have been reporting a more favorable image of President Trump over the past few weeks. Unsurprisingly, this has indeed translated in them giving his job performance higher marks. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain that support or if it will fade over time.

Men (62%) are more like than women (52%) to support the travel ban, though majorities of both say it’s the right thing to do. Eighty-four (84%) of Republicans support the order, down from 95% in Dec., but 54% of independents and even 3 in 10 (30%) Democrats agree.

The PPD Poll, which conducted the most accurate polling in 2016, is in line with other firms that actually polled the election correctly. The Big Data poll pegged President Trump’s victories on on the statewide level in all but two states within tens of percentage points, including Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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Subscribers can track public opinion on this issue over time here.

The PPD Poll follows level 1 AAPOR standards of disclosure and WAPOR/ESOMAR code of conduct. The poll results were taken from the entire survey conducted from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8 and are based on 1392 interviews of likely voters participating in the PPD Internet Polling Panel. The PPD Poll has a 95% confidence interval and is not weighted based on party affiliation (party ID), but rather demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey–i.e. age, gender, race, income, education and region. The sample identified a partisan split of 37% Democrat, 33% Republican and 31% Independent/Other. Read about methodology here.

A solid majority still supports President Donald

Politics

Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. is sworn in on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2017, prior to testifying at his confirmation hearing for attorney general before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. is sworn in on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2017, prior to testifying at his confirmation hearing for attorney general before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The U.S. Senate voted 52-47 to confirm Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions as the next U.S. Attorney General, ending days of Democratic obstruction of his nomination.

Senate Democrats, who have attempted to smear most of President Donald J. Trump’s Cabinet picks, brought up decades-old accusations of racism that sunk his 1980s bid for a judgeship. They have since been widely debunked.

“Jeff Sessions has my vote. He’s my friend. I’ve made relationships and friendships here and I don’t care if they are Democrats or Republicans,” Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said before the vote. “I have never detected, never one ounce of detection that he is what they’ve said.”

As U.S. attorney for the state of Alabama, Mr. Sessions prosecuted and put to death the leader of the Ku Klux Klan and led the legal battle to desegregate the schools. Rising to speak in support of his nomination, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Penn., argued the new attorney general was also responsible for breaking up the white supremacist group in Alabama by bankrupting them in the state.

Columnist Quin Hillyer, who has followed Mr. Sessions’ career for years, dismissed the criticisms and charges of racism.

“Mr. Sessions has now served 20 years in the Senate,” Hillyer said. “No racist could keep bigotry closeted for so long.”

The nomination of then-Sen. Sessions for Attorney General is supported by every major law enforcement representative group in the nation.

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The Senate voted 52-47 to confirm Sen.

Economy

Then-President-elect Donald J. Trump is broadcast on a screen on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S. December 27, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Then-President-elect Donald J. Trump is broadcast on a screen on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S. December 27, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

With the markets trading at historic highs, average Americans are reporting a level of economic confidence under President Donald J. Trump not seen in years.

The U.S. Economic Confidence Index measured by Gallup averaged +11 in January, the highest monthly average ever measured in the 9-year trend. Further, several 3-day averages during the month also hit new highs since Gallup began tracking in 2008.

As People’s Pundit Daily previously reported earlier this month, the U.S. Economic Confidence Index spiked and peaked at +19 for the period from January 21 – 23. That represented the 3-day average after President Trump’s inauguration and shortly before the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) hit a new high.

The Dow topped 20,000 and closed above it for the first time ever in U.S. history on January 25.

Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two sub-component questions: how respondents rate the current economic condition and whether they feel the economy is getting better or worse. In January, 31% rated the economy as “excellent” or “good,” while only 21% said it was “poor,” resulting in a current conditions score of +10.

That marking the highest monthly reading for this component since 2008. Overall, with the exception of January and February 2015, the index was in negative territory throughout the Obama presidency.

In February, Rasmussen Reports found that 50% of American adults now believe the economy will be stronger a year from now. That’s a 16-point jump from only 34% in October before the election and the highest measure since regular surveying began on the question in 2009 just after the financial crisis.

“Americans are far more optimistic about their economic future since Donald Trump’s election as president,” Rasmussen wrote.

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, hit a 12-year high following the election. It continued its post-election rally in January.

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“Consumers expressed a higher level of confidence January than any other time in the last dozen years,” said Survey of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtain. “The post-election surge in confidence was driven by a more optimistic outlook for the economy and job growth during the year ahead as well as more favorable economic prospects over the next five years.”

Still, Mr. Curtain and others have warned that the optimism is predicated on achieving results. If the policies President Trump has promised to enact are not implemented, the optimism and real economic activity could fizzle.

“Americans of all political stripes will need to see results of an improving economy to maintain this high degree of confidence, which already appears to be slipping in early February’s three-day rolling averages,” Justin McCarthy of Gallup said. “The promising jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be the strong footing Trump needs to maintain this elevated level of economic confidence.”

The first jobs report under President Trump easily beat expectations, though the White House said they are shooting for higher standards. Further, all indicators from Capitol Hill and the White House point to delivering on the platform Republicans ran on, albeit at a slower pace than some may have hoped.

In the meantime, President Trump continues to take action to reduce regulations and foster a more business-friendly environment, while meeting with business leaders around the country. Numerous companies have announced they will invest in the United States in response to the president’s America First policy.

The latest announcement came from Brian Krzanich, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at Intel. Mr. Krzanich said the company had decided to proceed with plans to invest $7 billion in order to build a factory in Arizona, adding 3,000 jobs because of “the tax and regulatory policies we see the administration pushing forward.”

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With the markets trading at new highs,

News, US

Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem. (Photo: Courtesy of the Maricopa County Sheriff's Department, File)

Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem. (Photo: Courtesy of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Department, File)

Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem, an American-born Muslim convert who attacked a Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest in Texas, was sentenced to 30 years on Wednesday. Kareem, who told the judge in Phoenix he “had nothing to do” with the attack.

Prosecutors argued Kareem provided the cash that his two friends–Elton Simpson and Nadir Soofi–which was used to conduct the attack. Simpson and Soofi were killed in a police shootout outside the contest after they opened fire outside the free speech event in Garland, Texas. A security guard was wounded in the terror attack.

Prosecutors also said Kareem watched jihadists videos with the two men, whom he encouraged to conduct a terror attack to support ISIS. But Kareem told jurors that he strongly disapproved of Simpson using Kareem’s laptop to watch al-Qaida and other Islamist promotional propaganda.

He researched travel to the Middle East and how to join the Islamic State army. Kareem was convicted of supporting the Islamic State (ISIS) terror group and helping to plot the 2015 attack.

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Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem, an American-born Muslim

Policy

Francois Fillon, member of the conservative Les Republicains political party in France, attends what was his final rally ahead of the first round of vote to choose the conservative candidate for the French presidential election in Paris, November 18, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Francois Fillon, member of the conservative Les Republicains political party in France, attends what was his final rally ahead of the first round of vote to choose the conservative candidate for the French presidential election in Paris, November 18, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

What best symbolizes France’s statist political culture?

  • Is it bloated public sector that consumes more than half of the economy’s output?
  • Is it a tax system that is so onerous that households sometimes pay more than 100 percent of their income to government?
  • Is it cossetted bureaucrats with cars and drivers who nonetheless still rack up giant taxi expenses?

Those are good examples, to be sure, but I’ve actually already shared an everything-you-need-to-know story dealing with lavish perks for France’s protected bureaucrat class.

But there’s no rule that says I can’t have multiple everything-you-need-to-know anecdotes.

Here’s a story that reveals why France is in trouble. The Wall Street Journal reports that a French presidential candidate is arguing people shouldn’t get upset that he used taxpayer money to give his wife a no-show job because a big chunk of the money then went back to the government because of punitive taxes.

François Fillon…apologiz[ed] to the country for having employed his wife and children as parliamentary aides while rejecting accusations the jobs were phony. …Mr. Fillon characterized it as unfair for media reports to state his wife received nearly a million euros over a 15-year period, saying after taxes her monthly average income came to only €3,677 ($3,964). …The privileges traditionally available to France’s ruling class were exposed with rare candor.

So I guess Fillon wants people to think it’s okay to divert funds to family members if they “only” pocket about $48,000 per year after paying taxes.

This is disgusting. At least Fillon should have wasted taxpayer money more elegantly, like France’s current president, who doesn’t have much hair but still gave his stylist big bucks.

What makes Fillon’s story especially amusing is that he is the candidate trying to appeal to French voters who want to reduce the role of the state.

Considering that two of his major opponents are Marine Le Pen, a big-government populist, and Benoît Hamon, a socialist who favors a taxpayer-provided basic income for everyone, maybe Fillon actually is the only choice for French voters with libertarian impulses, but that’s a rather sad commentary on the state of French politics. So I don’t even know if I’ll endorse a candidate, like I did back in 2012.

What makes the situation particularly tragic is that the fiscal mess in France has become so bad that even parts of the government are concluding that some market-based reforms are necessary.

Corporation tax in France is too far above the European average, according to a report by the French Court of Auditors. The experts said a cut from 33.3% to 25% would allow companies to compete with their European counterparts. EurActiv France reports. The amount of tax paid by businesses in France has been steadily climbing for the last two decades. Today, they pay the highest rates in Europe. But this growth has not been good for the country, according to a report published by the Court… France has not always been a high tax jurisdiction, compared to other EU countries. In 1995 it was more or less at the European average. But it has steadily increased over the last 20 years. At the same time, other EU member states have been moving in the opposite direction. According to the report, most member states have lowered tax on business revenues, or have imminent plans to do so. The UK, for example plans to cut corporation tax to 17% by 2020. The average tax rate paid by EU companies fell from 33% in 1999 to 25% in 2015.

France’s suicidal fiscal regime is why – with my tongue planted firmly in cheek – I agreed with Paul Krugman back in 2013 that there is a plot against France. But I pointed out the conspirators against France were the nation’s politicians.

The latest scandal involving François Fillon really

Policy

U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at Maximos Palace in Athens, Greece November 15, 2016. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at Maximos Palace in Athens, Greece November 15, 2016. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

I’ve put forth lots of arguments against tax increases, mostly focusing on why higher tax rates will depress growth and encourage more government spending.

Today, let’s look at a practical, real-world example.

I wrote a column for The Hill looking at why Greece is a fiscal and economic train wreck. I have lots of interesting background and history in the article, including the fact that Greece got into the mess by overspending and also explaining that politicians like Merkel only got involved because they wanted to bail out their domestic banks that foolishly lent lots of money to the Greek government.

But the most newsworthy part of my column was to expose the fact that “austerity” hasn’t worked in Greece because the private sector has been suffocated by giant tax hikes.

…the troika…imposed the wrong kind of fiscal reforms. …what mostly happened is that Greek politicians dramatically increased the nation’s already punitive tax burden. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s fiscal database tells a very ugly story. …on the eve of the crisis, the tax burden in Greece totaled 38.9 percent of GDP. This year, taxes are projected to reach 52.0 percent of economic output. Every major tax in Greece has been dramatically increased, including personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, value-added taxes, and property taxes. It’s been a taxpalooza… What’s happened on the spending side of the fiscal ledger? Have there been “savage” and “draconian” budget cuts? …there have been some cuts, but the burden of government spending is still a heavy weight on the Greek economy. Outlays totaled 54.1 percent of GDP in 2009 and now government is consuming 52.2 percent of economic output.

For what it’s worth, the spending numbers would look better if the economy was stronger. In other words, Greece’s performance wouldn’t be so dismal if GDP was growing rather than shrinking.

And that’s why tax increases are so misguided. They give politicians an excuse to avoid much-needed spending cuts while also hindering growth, investment and job creation.

Let’s close by reviewing Greece’s performance according to Economic Freedom of the World. The overall score for Greece has dropped slightly since 2009, but the real story is that the nation’s fiscal score has dramatically worsened, falling from 5.61 to 4.66 on a 0-10 scale. In other words, during a period of time in which Greece was supposed to sober up and become more fiscally responsible, the politicians engaged in an orgy of tax hikes and Greece went from a failing grade for fiscal policy to a miserably failing grade.

Here’s a the relevant graph from the EFW website. As you can see, the score has been dropping for a decade, not just since 2009.

This is remarkable result. Greek politicians should have been pushing the nation’s fiscal score to at least 7 out of 10, if not 8 out of 10. Instead, the score has gone in the wrong direction because of tax increases.

Though I don’t expect Hillary and Bernie to learn the right lesson.

P.S. For more information, here’s my five-picture explanation of the Greek mess.

P.P.S. And if you want to know why I’m so dour about Greece’s future, how can you expect good policy from a nation that subsidizes pedophiles and requires stool samples to set up online companies?

P.P.P.S. Let’s close by recycling my collection of Greek-related humor.

This cartoon is quite  good, but this this one is my favorite. And the final cartoon in this post also has a Greek theme.

We also have a couple of videos. The first one features a video about…well, I’m not sure, but we’ll call it a European romantic comedy and the second one features a Greek comic pontificating about Germany.

Last but not least, here are some very un-PC maps of how various peoples – including the Greeks – view different European nations.

The growth performance of the economy in

Politics

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., speaks on the floor of the U.S. Senate during a filibuster attempt to prevent Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., from being confirmed as the attorney general. (Photo: AP)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., speaks on the floor of the U.S. Senate during a filibuster attempt to prevent Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., from being confirmed as the attorney general. (Photo: AP)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., was banned from debate in the U.S. Senate while the chamber weighed confirmation of Sen. Jeff Sessions for attorney general. The leftwing senator, after violating Rule XIX, took to Facebook to finish what many viewed to be an outrageous rant.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who has held up President Donald J. Trump’s Cabinet confirmations longer than any other administration in U.S. history, called the move to ban her from speaking “totally unnecessary.” But Sen. Warren reopened decades old charges and allegations of racism against Sen. Sessions that have been debunked, but were enough to derail his judicial appointment in the 1980s.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said senators from both parties “should be ashamed,” but blamed the deteriorating atmosphere on the floor of the upper chamber on Democrats.

“This place is going to devolve into nothing but a jungle,” Sen. Hatch said.

“It’s time for Democrats to get over the results of the election,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said to reporters late Tuesday night. He invoked the rules and the GOP-controlled Senate voted 49-to-43 to ban Sen. Warren from speaking further on the nomination of Sen. Sessions.

“She was warned. She was given an explanation. Nevertheless, she persisted,” Sen. McConnell said.

A confirmation vote is expected Wednesday evening and he will be confirmed.

Sen. Warren, 67, may still be a darling to the far-left coastal region wing of the party, but she is becoming increasingly unpopular at home. Recent polls show most Bay State voters do not believe Sen. Warren deserves to be re-elected in 2018. Voters feel she has been too busy positioning herself for a White House run by grandstanding against President Trump to serve the people at home.

As her popularity falls, her coffers get deeper. Sen. Warren hauled in $5.9 million in campaign contributions from January 2015 through the end of 2016.

In 2016, leftwing activist groups attempted to recruit her to run against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. But she caved to the Clinton machine and, per WikiLeaks, was prevented from endorsing Bernie Sanders by the Clinton campaign.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., was banned from

News, US

Protesters built barricades and set them ablaze as heavily armed police approached the protest camp.

Protesters built barricades and set them ablaze as heavily armed police approached the protest camp.

U.S. District Judge Daniel Hovland said Dakota pipeline protesters “are unlikely to succeed on the merits of their claims” in a lawsuit against police. While he didn’t immediately rule on a motion filed Monday by law enforcement to dismiss the lawsuit, Judge Hovland said protesters were trespassing during the confrontation and that “no reasonable juror could conclude” they acted in an unreasonable manner.

The plaintiffs claimed the police used excessive force in a clash that injured more than 200 protesters and allege officers violated their civil rights. The confrontation occurred from Nov. 21 to Nov. 22 at a bridge blockaded by protestors near the location pipeline opponents have gathered in the hundreds and sometimes thousands since last summer. The effort is meant to oppose a $3.8 billion project they believe could harm drinking water and Native American cultural sites.

That’s disputed by Energy Transfer Partners, the Texas-based developer of the four-state pipeline to move North Dakota oil 1,200 miles through South Dakota and Iowa to Illinois. Protesters, who were accused of becoming violent, are suing for unspecified damages.

However, Judge Hovland has denied an earlier request by pipeline opponents to prohibit police from using such crowd control tools as chemical agents and water sprays as a means of dispersing protesters.

“The rights of free speech and assembly do not mean, and have never meant, that everyone who chooses to protest against the Dakota Access pipeline may do so at any time, any place, and under any set of conditions they choose in total disregard of the law,” Judge Hovland said. “To allow that to occur would result in anarchy and an end to the rule of law in civilized society.”

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[caption id="attachment_49919" align="aligncenter" width="740"] Protesters built barricades

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