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Economy

Consumer-Confidence-Index-Reuters

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, continued its post-election rally in January. Coming in at 98.4, it’s up from the preliminary reading of 98.1 and consumers expressed the high level of confidence in 12 years.

Economists were looking for the reading to remain at 98.1.

“Consumers expressed a higher level of confidence January than any other time in the last dozen years,” said Survey of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtain. “The post-election surge in confidence was driven by a more optimistic outlook for the economy and job growth during the year ahead as well as more favorable economic prospects over the next five years.”

Consumers also reported much more positive assessments of their current financial situation due to gains in both incomes and household wealth, though relative to the future are still lagging. Consumers anticipated the most positive outlook for their personal finances in more than a decade in January.

Final Results for January 2017

Jan Dec Jan M-M Y-Y
2017 2016 2016 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 98.5 98.2 92.0 +0.3% +7.1%
Current Economic Conditions 111.3 111.9 106.4 -0.5% +4.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations 90.3 89.5 82.7 +0.9% +9.2%
Next data release: February 10, 2017 for Preliminary February data at 10am ET

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

Economy

durable-goods-reuters

American workers at a manufacturing plant for long-lasting durable goods. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

The Commerce Department said Friday durable goods orders fell 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $227.02 billion in December to end the year down. The decline in the demand for long-lasting manufactured goods–products designed to last longer than three years–was not anticipated.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 2.3% increase in overall orders, but the drop was fueled by a decline in defense-related orders and weaker-than-anticipated demand for other products.

Orders for the volatile defense category fell 33.4%, the largest one-month drop since May 2014. Excluding defense, orders rose 1.7% in December from November. Overall, overall durable orders in 2016 fell 0.3% and orders excluding defense decreased 0.9%.

The latest data show manufacturers in the U.S. had a lackluster 2016. However, underlying data indicate demand stabilized and firms anticipate more favorable business conditions in 2017.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which serves as a proxy for business investment, increased 0.8% in December. That marks the third straight monthly gain even as the category was down 3.4% for all of 2016 juxtaposed to 2015.

The motor vehicles component, including orders for parts increased 2% last month and was up 2.7% in 2016.

Durable goods orders for the volatile civilian aircraft component increased a whopping 42.4% from a month earlier after Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) had a weak November. Excluding transportation altogether, orders gained 0.5% but were down 0.3% for year.

Overall durable orders for November from the prior month were revised to a 4.8% decline, from a previous estimate of down 4.5%.

The Commerce Department said Friday durable goods

Economy

The first reading of fourth-quarter (4Q) gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at a slower annualized pace of 1.9%. The Commerce Department said Friday the he final reading on third-quarter growth was 3.5%, but fell in President Barack Obama’s final 4Q.

Economists were expecting economic growth to come in at a 2.2% pace.

Overall, the economy grew only 1.6% throughout 2016, which was the weakest pace since 2011. The U.S. economy only grew 2.6% in 2015.

An downward revision to inventory also sliced off of GDP growth last year, while exports fell 4.3% rate and erased the 10% gain seen in the third quarter.

GDP growth in the first two quarters was also negated by cheaper oil and a strong dollar, which hurt company profits and stifled business investment.

Widening trade deficits sliced off 1.7% from GDP growth in the 4Q after adding 0.85% in the 3Q. That was the biggest net-negative from trade since the second quarter of 2010.

The first reading of fourth-quarter (4Q) gross

World

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a joint news conference in Moscow's Kremlin on Nov.16, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a joint news conference in Moscow’s Kremlin on Nov.16, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. President Donald J. Trump is expected to speak with German Chancellor Angela Merkel about Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is also awaiting a call. Chancellor Merkel, according to sources who spoke with Reuters, is reportedly going to tell the new president that the European Union (EU) will not following the U.S. in any effort to life the sanctions against Moscow for the annexation of Crimea.

Earlier in the day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are expected to hold a phone conversation on Saturday.

Mr. Peskov wouldn’t comment on the topic of the conversation will entail.

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“Let’s see,” he told reporters in Moscow. “Let’s just be patient.”

The source did not say whether President Trump even wanted to speak with Chancellor Merkel about lifting sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its intervention in Ukraine, but they did made clear the EU was not open to taking such steps.

President Donald J. Trump is expected to

Politics

MLS commissioner Don Garber, left, David Beckham, center, and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, right. (Photo: Reuters)

MLS commissioner Don Garber, left, David Beckham, center, and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, right. (Photo: Reuters)

Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez on Thursday ordered county jails to comply with immigration retainer requests, ending their status as a sanctuary city. The move comes after President Donald J. Trump signed two executive orders, one for the construction of a border wall and to crack down on sanctuary cities.

Executive order–Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States–aims to put an end sanctuary cities, which polling shows voters overwhelmingly support. A recent survey found 62% of likely voters wanted the Department of Justice (DOJ) to punish cities that provide sanctuary for illegal immigrants.

“In light of the provisions of the Executive Order, I direct you and your staff to honor all immigration detainer requests received from the Department of Homeland Security,” Mayor Gimenez wrote Daniel Junior, the interim director of the corrections and rehabilitation department, in a three-paragraph memo.

The city did not declare and was not considered a “sanctuary” for immigrants in the country illegally until 2014, when the Obama administration accumulated a $14 million bill for detainer requests.

“We will now go back to the 2014 policy and honor retainer requests,” he said Friday morning. “We are not a sanctuary city. We’ve never been a sanctuary city.”

President Trump praised Mayor Gimenez on Twitter, tweeting: “Miami-Dade Mayor drops sanctuary policy. Right decision. Strong!”

Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez on Thursday ordered

Polls

President Donald J. Trump gives his inaugural address on January 20, 2017. (Photo: PPD via Screenshot)

President Donald J. Trump gives his inaugural address on January 20, 2017. (Photo: PPD via Screenshot)

Voters give President Donald J. Trump high marks for his inauguration speech and widely approve of his job performance during the first week. The first PPD Tracking Poll conducted after Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2017 finds President Trump’s approval rating stands at 57%, with 40% disapproving of his performance in office.

That includes 44% who “strong approve” and 33% who “strongly disapprove” of the president’s job performance.

A whopping 69% of likely voters said they had a “positive” reaction to the new president’s inauguration speech, with 53% saying they had a “very positive” reaction. Ninety-six (96%) percent of Republicans had at least a “somewhat positive” reaction to his address, while 71% of independents and a significant 42% of Democrats agreed.

The PPD Poll, which conducted the most accurate surveys in 2016 on both the national and statewide level, also finds 54% of likely voters now view the New York businessman-turned-leader of the free world favorably, while 40% continue to hold an unfavorable view of him.

That includes 42% who say they have a “very favorable” view and 33% who have a “very unfavorable” view.

This week, 62% of whites said they view President Trump favorably, up from 59% measured last week. The percentage of black voters who view him favorably continued to increase–up from 19% to 21%–after showing significant improvement from 10% to 17% three weeks ago. The percentage viewing him unfavorably was relatively unchanged at 70%.

While we have consistently found Hispanics are the least undecided voting demographic, they have also displayed a propensity to lead the way in the “mind-changers” category. But for the first time, this week that volatility has begun to work in the president’s favor, as his favorability rating showed significant improvement from -26 to -18. The percentage of Hispanics viewing President Trump favorably ticked up slightly from 37% to 39% and the percentage viewing him unfavorably fell considerably from 63% to 57%.

That gain comes after his favorability rating increased from 31% to 37% two weeks ago.

Hispanics continue to remain the least undecided voting demographic, though also display a propensity to lead the way in the “mind-changers” category.

The PPD Poll follows level 1 AAPOR standards of disclosure and WAPOR/ESOMAR code of conduct. The approval poll results were taken from the entire survey conducted from Jan. 19 to Jan. 25 and are based on 1504 interviews of likely voters participating in the PPD Internet Polling Panel. The PPD Poll has a 95% confidence interval and is not weighted based on party affiliation (party ID), but rather demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey–i.e. age, gender, race, income, education and region. The sample identified a partisan split of 37% Democrat, 33% Republican and 31% Independent/Other. It uses a likely voter model based on responses to screening questions relating to prior voting history, enthusiasm and registration status etc.

Voters give President Donald J. Trump high

Politics

President Donald J. Trump, center, sits to the left of Vice President Mike Pence, to the right of Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly, while holding up an executive order to build border wall and fulfill other campaign promises related to immigration. The orders were signed at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017 in Washington. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump, center, sits to the left of Vice President Mike Pence, to the right of Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly, while holding up an executive order to build border wall and fulfill other campaign promises related to immigration. The orders were signed at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017 in Washington. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump is preparing to sign an executive order “auditing and reducing” U.S. funding to the United Nations under certain criteria.

“Auditing and Reducing U.S. Funding of International Organizations,” the first of two orders, calls for terminating funding for any U.N. agency or other international body that meets any one of several criteria.

Criteria include organizations that give full membership to the Palestinian Authority or Palestine Liberation Organization, or support programs that fund abortion or any activity that circumvents sanctions against Iran or North Korea. The draft order also calls for terminating funding for any organization that “is controlled or substantially influenced by any state that sponsors terrorism” or is blamed for the persecution of marginalized groups or any other systematic violation of human rights.

The order comes a few weeks after the previous administration quietly gave $221 million to the Palestinian Authority. That was only hours before President Trump took the oath of office and after the Obama administration organized and permitted the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution condemning Israeli settlements last month.

Republicans in Congress who previously blocked the transfer, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., have indicated support for a bill mirroring the action to be taken by the new administration. President Trump’s executive order calls for enacting “at least a 40 percent overall decrease” in remaining U.S. funding toward international organizations, which will focus on “peacekeeping operations” and decided by a committee established by the action.

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While U.N. agencies rely on billions of dollars in U.S. contributions each year, many lawmakers argue–and voters agree–they have not acted in the best interest of allies and the nation. The most obvious of these examples is Israel, something even outgoing Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recognized in his last address to the UN Security Council on Friday.

“Decades of political maneuverings have created a disproportionate volume of resolutions, reports and conferences criticizing Israel,” Ban said. “In many cases, rather than helping the Palestinian cause, this reality has hampered the ability of the UN to fulfill its role effectively.”

The second executive order, titled “Moratorium on New Multilateral Treaties,” calls for a review of all current and pending treaties between the U.S. and more than one other nation. It aims to get recommendations on which negotiations or treaties the U.S. should abandon because they are not “directly related to national security, extradition or international trade.”

President Donald J. Trump is preparing to

Policy

Copies of President Barack Obama’s proposed 2016 budget are displayed for sale at the Government Printing Office in Washington, D.C. (Photo: AP)

Copies of President Barack Obama’s proposed 2016 budget are displayed for sale at the Government Printing Office in Washington, D.C. (Photo: AP)

Based on new 10-year fiscal estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), I wrote yesterday that balancing the budget actually is very simple with a modest bit of spending restraint.

If lawmakers simply limit annual spending increases to 1 percent annually, the budget is balanced by 2022. If spending is allowed to grow by 2 percent annually, the budget is balanced by 2025. And if the goal is balancing the budget by the end of the 10-year window, that simply requires that spending grow no more than 2.63 percent annually.

I also pointed out that this wouldn’t require unprecedented fiscal discipline. After all, we had a de facto spending freeze (zero percent spending growth) from 2009-2014.

And in another previous column, I shared many other examples of nations that achieved excellent fiscal results with multi-year periods of spending restraint (as defined by outlays growing by an average of less than 2 percent).

Today, we’re going to add tax cuts to our fiscal equation.

Some people seem to think it’s impossible to balance the budget if lawmakers are also reducing the amount of tax revenue that goes to Washington each year.

And they think big tax cuts, such as the Trump plan (which would reduce revenues over 10 years by $2.6 trillion-$3.9 trillion according to the Tax Foundation), are absurd and preposterous.

After all, if politicians tried to simultaneously enact a big tax cut and balance the budget, it would require deep and harsh spending cuts that would decimate the federal budget, right?

Nope. Not at all.

They just need to comply with my Golden Rule.

golden-rule

Let’s examine the fiscal implications of a $3 trillion tax cut. If you look at CBO’s baseline revenue forecast for the next 10 years, the federal government is projected to collect more than $43 trillion during that decade. If you reduce that baseline by an average of $300 billion each year, receipts will still grow. Indeed, they’ll rise from $3.4 trillion this year to $4.8 trillion in 2027.

And since CBO is forecasting that the federal government this year will spend more than $3.9 trillion, we simply have to figure out the amount of spending restraint necessary so that outlays in 2027 don’t exceed $4.8 trillion.

That’s not a difficult calculation. It turns out that the American people can get a substantial $3 trillion tax and a balanced budget if politicians simply exercise a modest amount of fiscal discipline and limit annual spending increases to 1.96 percent annually.

In other words, if the crowd in Washington does nothing more than simply have government grow just a tiny bit less than the projected rate of inflation, lots of good things can be achieved.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as part

News, US

Markeith Loyd, 41, appears in court after being accused of killing Orlando police Lt. Debra Clayton on Jan. 9 and his pregnant ex-girlfriend, Sade Dixon, in December.

Markeith Loyd, 41, appears in court after being accused of killing Orlando police Lt. Debra Clayton on Jan. 9 and his pregnant ex-girlfriend, Sade Dixon, in December.

ORLANDO, Fla. (PPD) — A Florida judge on Thursday ruled accused cop-killer Markeith Loyd competent to represent himself, though strongly encouraged him to consider acquiring representation.

Loyd, 41, was accused of murdering his pregnant girlfriend Sade Dixon in December and a warrant had been issued for his arrest before he shot Orlando police Master Sgt. Debra Clayton. He appeared to be calm on Thursday after three previous appearances in which he lashed out at the judge with profanity-laced comments.

“I and the other individuals in this courtroom; I intend to treat you with respect and dignity because you’re owed that as a human being. I don’t intend to be disrespectful to you Mr. Loyd. I’m not going to curse at you and I’m going to ask you not to curse at me, or others,” Chief Judge Frederick J. Lauten said. “I need some cooperation from you.”

Judge Lauten warned Loyd during Thursday’s proceedings that if he did curse, he could be denied the right to represent himself. Loyd brought up his eye several times, one of several injuries he claims to have suffered at the hands of an excessively brutal Orlando Police Department. OPD says he resisted arrest on Jan. 17.

Loyd answered several of the judge’s questions, including one about education. He said he completed 10th grade and obtained his GED and told Judge Lauten that he has been taking codeine for his eye injury.

The judge ruled that Loyd can waive his right to an attorney, but suggested that he speak with his family about obtaining representation.

As Loyd exited the courtroom, he acknowledged his family, saying “I’m going to call you.”

Loyd was arrested after a nine-day manhunt and authorities announced they increased the reward for his capture to $125,000. The U.S. Marshals Service added him to its top 15 most-wanted fugitives and along with the FBI, Homeland Security and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement assisted local agencies to find Loyd.

On the morning of the murder, a shopper had tipped off Master Sgt. Clayton — who was putting bags in the trunk of her vehicle — that Loyd was in the Walmart waiting to check out. As the officer walked towards the store, the suspect barged out and fired at least 12 shots.

He has a long wrap sheet, meaning an extensive criminal history. On Nov. 30, he wrote on his Facebook page, “Goals!!!! To be on Americas most wanted.”

On Dec. 13, Loyd had gone to his girlfriend’s home on Long Peak Drive and began banging on the door. When Dixon answered, he shot her and her 26-year-old brother, Ronald Steward. He was critically wounded and five other people were home at the time of the shooting, including Dixon’s 5- and 7-year-old children.

A Florida judge ruled accused cop-killer Markeith

Politics

President Donald Trump shows his signature on an executive order on the Keystone XL pipeline, Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2017. (Photo: AP)

President Donald Trump shows his signature on an executive order on the Keystone XL pipeline, Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2017. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump has just signed two executive orders for the construction of a border wall and to crack down on sanctuary cities. The president took action during a visit to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), where he outlined his bold new agenda regarding immigration enforcement.

In Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements, President Trump put an end to the catch-and-release program, increased U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel by 5,000 people and took action to put an end to asylum fraud.

The second executive order–Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States–aims to put an end sanctuary cities, which polling shows voters overwhelmingly support. A recent survey found 62% of likely voters wanted the Department of Justice (DOJ) to punish cities that provide sanctuary for illegal immigrants.

The order also calls for action to identify criminal illegal aliens, triples the amount of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and empowers them to enforce existing federal immigration law. It also creates victims’ advocacy offices for American citizens who loved ones had been harmed by acts committed people who should have never been here in the first place.

President Donald J. Trump, center, sits to the left of Vice President Mike Pence, to the right of Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly, while holding up an executive order to build border wall and fulfill other campaign promises related to immigration. The orders were signed at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017 in Washington. (Photo: AP)

President Donald J. Trump, center, sits to the left of Vice President Mike Pence, to the right of Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly, while holding up an executive order to build border wall and fulfill other campaign promises related to immigration. The orders were signed at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017 in Washington. (Photo: AP)

The actions both represent the fulfillment of major promises the president made to voters on the campaign trail and in his Contract with the American Voter. President Trump was the first political candidate ever of any major political party to receive the endorsement of the U.S. Border Patrol Union and frequently visited the families of those who’s loved ones were killed by illegal immigrants.

Still, leftwing Democratic officials continued to dig in following the order.

“Shame on him,” Lawrence, Mass., Mayor Daniel Rivera said in a statement regarding the order on sanctuary cities. “There’s so many other things to worry about. Nobody in a red state is going to get a job or have their life become better because he victimizes these immigrants.”

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said on Wednesday the order would direct the DHS secretary to look at funding streams and determine “how they can be cut off” for sanctuary districts. The Trump administration will undoubtedly have a fight on their hands and make clear to local officials what they are willing to do to enforce existing law, as well as the executive order.

“Given that today’s [executive order] was simply a directive and did not even make clear if there were any significant funding streams that the Trump administration could cut off to Philadelphia, we have no plans to change our immigration policy at this time,” Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney said in a statement.

Ms. Hitt added that Philadelphia has a “responsibility” to keep “undocumented human beings” safe, and will now be forced to explain who exactly she is referring to. Unlike the past, the order requires DHS to publish the crimes committed by illegal immigrants each month, a stark contrast from what was an active effort by the government the media to cover up these crimes.

President Donald J. Trump has just signed

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