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President-Elect Donald J. Trump meets with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office on November 10, 2016. (Photo: AP)

President-Elect Donald J. Trump meets with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office on November 10, 2016. (Photo: AP)

In a recent interview with his former advisor David Axelrod, President Barack Obama claimed he “could’ve mobilized a majority” to defeat President-elect Donald J. Trump. While the president can believe whatever he wants if it makes him feel better, it’s impossible to know who would’ve won this hypothetical election to a certainty.

But I’ll bite, largely because I don’t believe the fundamentals, the data or the results support his claim. Let’s look at everything he said on the subject while making the statement.

And — and win back seats in the Senate. And — and so, I understand what happened politically.

Two points I would make though, David, because obviously in the wake of the election and Trump winning, a lot of people have — have suggested that somehow, it really was a fantasy. What I would argue is, is that the culture actually did shift, that the majority does buy into the notion of a one America that is tolerant and diverse and open and — and full of energy and dynamism.

And — and the problem is, it doesn’t always manifest itself in politics, right? You know, I am confident in this vision because I’m confident that if I — if I had run again and articulated it, I think I could’ve mobilized a majority of the American people to rally behind it.

I know that in conversations that I’ve had with people around the country, even some people who disagreed with me, they would say the vision, the direction that you point towards is the right one.

What the president was really saying was that American voters didn’t repudiate him, his policy or the state of the economy under his tenure. He insinuated Hillary Clinton, who ran as his endorsed successor and legacy defender, was the real problem. To back that up, he cites conversations with unnamed “people around the country” who say “the vision, the direction” he has for the nation “is the right one.”

Let’s begin with there and get more specific.

Direction of Country

Point of fact, more voters in 2016 than in 2012 said the country was going in the wrong direction, not the right one. Still, it translated into roughly the same number of voters breaking against the direction Mr. Obama advocates in favor of.

On Election Day 2012, polls showed the right track/wrong track spread was only -14 points, with 54% of Americans saying the country was headed in the wrong direction and 40% saying it was headed in the right direction. The voting electorate was even more favorable to Mr. Obama, with the spread only -8 points, 52% to 46%. A whopping 84% of the 52% broke for the Republican (43.7).

On Election Day 2016, polls showed the spread had ballooned to -30 points, with 61% having a negative impression and 31% holding a positive impression. The actual voting electorate this time was much less favorable to Mr. Obama, with the spread still -29 points, 62% to 33%. A whopping 69% of the 62% broke for the Republican (42.8).

Change

Not surprisingly, voters in these two elections were making a choice based on completely different considerations. In 2016, the most important candidate quality was overwhelmingly was “Can bring needed change” (39%) while “Cares about people like me” (15%) was the least. On the former, Mr. Trump crushed Mrs. Clinton 83% to 13% of the most important candidate quality.

In 2012, the latter was the third most important consideration (21%) and Mr. Obama’s strongest category, crushing Gov. Romney 81% to 18%. A far larger percentage, 35%, said the same of the Republican in 2016.

In other words, it was a change election and it worked in favor of the change candidate–Mr. Trump. But even I take issue with some of the alleged results of the exit polls. So, let’s just take a look at some of the issues that drive these numbers and the impact on the result.

Trade

More than 200 battleground counties, many of which were not even considered particularly swingy before Election Day, flipped from President Obama in 2008 and 2012 to President-elect Trump in 2016. Outside of the typical battleground states–such as Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire–those counties were disproportionately located in the Midwest and Appalachia regions.

Trade played an enormous role in the Rust Belt and, unless he changed his position, Mr. Obama would’ve been on the wrong side of the issue as it pertains to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Forty-two (42%) of voters nationwide said trade “Takes away jobs” and they broke big for President-elect Trump, 65% to 31%. Of the 38% who said it “Creates more jobs,” he only lost this group 59% to 35%.

Many pundits, most of whom are now largely discredited, have been blaming low turnout for The Great Lakes State going Red for the first time since 1988. But dig a bit deeper and that explanation doesn’t really suffice.

Mr. Trump carried 12 counties in Michigan that voted to reelect Mr. Obama in 2012, including Monroe, Bay, Eaton, Saginaw and Macomb. In Macomb County, voter turnout actually increased 4% juxtaposed to the 1.1% increase statewide from 4 years ago. It’s true Mrs. Clinton got roughly 75,000 fewer votes than Mr. Obama in Wayne County, but we are comparing her to his pre-TPP performance, which by no stretch of the imagination could we presume to be the same.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump got 14,449 more votes in the county than Gov. Romney did in 2012.

Like Michigan, Pennsylvania had not gone for a Republican on the presidential level since 1988. Unlike Michigan, no one can blame low voter turnout in Democratic strongholds for Mr. Trump’s victory in The Keystone State, pure and simple. At the heart of the reason the state flipped is that counties classified as belonging to the Appalachia region represent 52 of the 67 counties statewide, which cast 44% of the Keystone vote.

After decades of Democratic decline in Appalachia, they went big for Mr. Trump by just under a half million votes, up significantly from the roughly 176,000-vote lead Gov. Romney enjoyed over Mr. Obama.

In Iowa, Mr. Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 had already shrunk from 10 points in 2008 to 6 points. In 2016, Mr. Trump demolished Mrs. Clinton by 10 points, a 16-point swing. With the exception of Linn, Johnson and Scott, the president-elect flipped almost all of the eastern counties in the state. Counting Scott County, which went for Mr. Obama by roughly 14 points and Mrs. Clinton by only 1.5 points, a whopping 18 eastern counties flipped from backing Mr. Obama in 2012 to backing the next president.

In 2004, heavy evangelical turnout literally gave George W. Bush a narrow 10,000-vote victory over John Kerry, 49.9% to 49.2%. Mr. Trump set a new record for evangelical support, at 81%, up 8 points from Gov. Romney.

Florida would be a must-win for both candidates at this point in our hypothetical election. But despite Mrs. Clinton squeezing more votes out of Broward County than Mr. Obama did, she still lost America’s biggest battleground state.

And President Obama would’ve likely lost it, too.

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President-elect Trump won Pasco County by nearly 52,000 votes, increasing the margin from Gov. Romney’s 14,000 edge four years prior. Hernando County gave him a 27,000 lead over his rival, up from 7,100 for Gov. Romney. In Polk County, Mr. Trump won by about 40,000 votes, roughly twice the margin Gov. Romney enjoyed.

What was the most important issue to these Obama-Trump voters? The answer: “Bring needed change.”

Conclusion

I could go on and on with these examples in each battleground state because they are plentiful. But I think there is one question we need to place above all other considerations.

Would Mr. Obama, an 8-year incumbent, have been able to soften the electorate’s view of the status quo? In a change election, being the incumbent isn’t exactly a benefit.

In 2012, Mr. Obama and his advisors were very concerned Mr. Trump might just decide to run for the GOP nomination against Gov. Romney and, ultimately, against him for the presidency. I think Mr. Obama had good reason to fear that scenario, even if we can’t know for sure how it would’ve turned out.

President Barack Obama recently claimed he "could've

WikiLeaks founder and editor-in-chief Julian Assange appears on Fox and Friends. (PHOTO: Fox News)

WikiLeaks founder and editor-in-chief Julian Assange appears on Fox and Friends. (PHOTO: Fox News)

In an interview with Sean Hannity scheduled to air Tuesday night, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange again refuted the claim the source of the leaks was the Russian government. The anti-secrecy group released thousands of emails and documents containing politically damaging information from Democratic officials, which exposed corruption in the party and Big Media establishments.

“Our source is not the Russian government,” he said, adding that it was not a “state party” actor, either.

WikiLeaks first released nearly 20,000 emails ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia exposing how the party worked for Hillary Clinton and actively against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during the 2016 Democratic nomination contest. The leaks also revealed corrupt journalists at Politico, The Washington Post, The New York Times, NBC News and CNN. Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned as DNC chairwoman amid the scandal.

She was replaced with Donna Brazile, who emails later showed had on multiple occasions provided the Clinton campaign with debate questions while working at CNN before the events.

During the general election, WikiLeaks published scores of emails and transcripts sent to and from Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta. The documents, which included Mrs. Clinton’s Wall Street speech transcripts, exposed further Big Media corruption and were extremely politically damaging to the former secretary of state. They showed a candidate that said one thing behind closed doors to big donors regarding trade, immigration and other issues, and another on the campaign trail.

Rather than firing any of these journalists, many of them have been assigned to cover the new Trump administration when the president-elect takes the oath of office in a few weeks.

The interview comes as President Barack Obama last week expelled 35 Russian intelligence officials and sanctioned two agencies who he claims were involved in hacking Democratic groups. Mr. Obama, who in early Nov. first took the position there was no evidence indicating Russia influenced the 2016 presidential election, has been under pressure from within both political parties to respond to the alleged cyber attacks.

But Mr. Assange has repeatedly claimed that the source of the leaks was just that, a leak, and not a hack. He also said the “Russians are Coming” narrative in an effort to delegitimize President-elect Donald J. Trump. At one point during the election, Mr. Assange seemed to suggest Seth Rich, a DNC staffer murdered by a shot to the back in D.C., had been the source of at least the DNC leak.

The official police report claimed Rich was the victim of a robbery, though the perpetrators failed to take any of his personal items, i.e. wallet, phone etc. Mr. Assange offered a substantial reward to anyone who had information on his murder.

The cybersecurity firm hired by the DNC to investigate the hack of its emails earlier this year claims the hacking came from the Fancy Bear group, which is believed to be affiliated with the GRU. However, the U.S. government has stopped short of confirming these specific findings even as they level the charges against Russia.

In an interview with Sean Hannity, WikiLeaks

spacex-falcon-9-reusable-hovering

NASA video observing the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in action. (Photo: Courtesy of NASA)

SpaceX said it will resume flights as early as next week after locating the cause of an explosion that destroyed a rocket-satellite combo back in September. The Hawthorne, California-based company is aiming for a Sunday, Jan. 8, flight from Vandenberg Air Force Base, the Los Angeles Times reported Monday.

“Clearly, they’re being extra cautious,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst for the Teal Group. “SpaceX usually pushes ahead a lot faster. So it seems like they’re not rushing ahead at this point, which is a good thing.”

The company said Monday its investigation of the Sept. 1 explosion found that a tank failed within the larger, second-stage liquid oxygen tank. SpaceX claims to have investigated some 3,000 channels of video and telemetry data that accounts for just 93 milliseconds from the first sign of trouble to the explosion.

SpaceX plans to launch 10 satellites for Iridium Communications Inc (NASDAQ:IRDM) on a Falcon 9 rocket. The satellites will be used to provide mobile communications on land, sea and air.

However, the first planned launch still need the seal of approval from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Iridium says it in a tweet that it is pleased with the SpaceX’s announcement and target launch date. SpaceX previously said it expected to return to flight as soon as November. But that anticipated launch date slipped back to December, and then January.

The explosion at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station destroyed a satellite that was to be managed by Israeli satellite operator Spacecom and was also to help Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg bring high-speed internet access to remote parts of Africa.

SpaceX said it will resume flights as

It’s time to channel the wisdom of Frederic Bastiat. There are many well-meaning people who understandably want to help workers by protecting them from bad outcomes such as pay reductions, layoffs and discrimination.

My normal response is to remind them that the best thing for workers is a vibrant and growing economy. That’s the kind of environment that produces tight labor markets and more investment, both of which then lead to higher pay.

Even statists sort of understand that this is true, but it’s sometimes difficult to get them to grasp the implications. They oftentimes are drawn to specific forms of government intervention, even if you explain that there are adverse unintended consequences.

Let’s explore this issue further.

In a column for the New York Times, Megan McGrath writes about a big new mining project in a remote part of Australia that “has the potential to create 10,000 jobs.” While that’s obviously good news, she worries that the company “will repeat the mistakes made by companies during the last mining boom by using workplace practices that hurt workers and their families.”

And what are these mistaken “workplace practices”? Apparently she thinks it is terrible that workers don’t want to move to the outback and instead prefer to continue living in cities and suburbs. So she think it is bad that they fly in for multi-week shifts, stay in temporary housing, and then fly back (at company expense) to their homes.

Employees…fly to remote mines from major cities to work weeks at a time, and fly home for several days off before starting the cycle again. These so-called fly-in, fly-out jobs, which offer hefty pay, are widely known here as “fifo.” At the peak of the boom in 2012, …more than 100,000 of these held fifo positions.

Though it seems these workers are making very rational decisions on how to maximize the net benefits of these positions.

…fifo workers in the last boom were young, undereducated men lured by salaries that far surpassed what they could earn for similar work outside the industry — up to $100,000 a year to shift earth and drive trucks. The average full-time mining employee in 2016 earned $1,000 more per week than other Australians.

So what’s the downside? Why are workers supposedly being exploited by these lucrative jobs?

According to McGrath, the mining camps don’t have a lot of amenities.

…fifo life comes at a steep price. The management in many mines controls the transient workers’ schedules — setting times for meals, showers and sleep. The workers often can’t visit nearby towns and recreational facilities such as gyms and swimming pools because of a lack of transportation. Many employees have to share beds. They work 12-hour shifts, seven days a week, up to three weeks at a time.

That doesn’t sound great, but this also explains why the mining companies have to pay a boatload of money to attract workers. This is a well-established pattern that is familiar to labor economists. If working conditions are unpalatable, then employers have to compensate with more remuneration.

But Ms. McGrath doesn’t think workers should get extra cash. She would rather the mining company compensate workers indirectly.

A lot can be done to improve life in the camps. Shorter swings would help workers maintain bonds with their families. More stable living situations, with less sharing of living spaces, would increase a sense of value and belonging. Workers should be encouraged to visit nearby towns to reduce their isolation. The Adani megamine could be in operation for 60 years, experts say. Roads for the mine and the region should be improved so employees can move with their families to existing townships and drive to work.

Of course, she doesn’t admit that she wants workers to get less cash compensation, but that would be the real-world impact of her proposed policies.

She says that the mining companies should “put people ahead of profits.” But that’s a vacuous statement. Projects like this new mine only exist because investors expect to earn a return. Otherwise, they wouldn’t take the enormous risk of sinking so much capital into such endeavors.

All this new investment is good news for unemployed or under-employed Australians since they’ll now have an opportunity to compete for jobs that pay very well, particularly for workers without a lot of education.

By the way, if workers really valued all the things that are on Ms. McGrath’s list, the company would offer those fringe benefits instead of higher wages. But that’s obviously not the case. The market has spoken.

By the way, I can’t resist pointing out that she also does not understand tax policy. In a sensible system, companies calculate their taxable profit by adding up their total revenue and then subtracting all their costs. What’s left is profit, a slice of which is then grabbed by government.

But that’s not enough for Ms. McGrath. She apparently believes that mining companies shouldn’t be allowed to subtract many of the costs associated with so-called fifo workers when calculating their annual profit. I’m not joking.

Mining companies are encouraged through tax incentives to use the transient workers. Some costs associated with a fifo worker — meals, transportation and airline tickets — can be claimed as production expenses, helping to lower a company’s tax bill.

I hope the Australian government isn’t dumb enough to buy this argument. Allowing a firm to subtract costs when calculating profit is simply common sense. And if doesn’t matter if those costs reflect fifo costs, investment expenditures, luxury travel, or band costumes.

For what it’s worth, if the government does get pressured into forcing companies to pay tax on these various business expenses, one very safe prediction is that the net effect will be to lower the wages offered to workers. Or, if the mandates, taxes, and regulations reach a certain level, the business will simply close down or new projects will be abandoned.

And those options obviously are not good news for workers.

Let’s now shift from the specific example of fifo workers to the broader issue of labor regulation. What happens if governments listen to people like Ms. McGrath and impose all sorts of rules that prevent flexible labor markets? According to recent scholarly research from three European economists, the consequence is more unemployment.

They start by pointing out that European nations with mandates and red tape have a lot more unemployment (particularly when the economy is weak) than countries with lightly regulated labor markets.

The Great Recession has brought a substantial increase in unemployment in Europe. Overall, unemployment rate in the euro area has grown from 8 percent in 2008 to 12 percent in 2014. The change in unemployment has been very heterogenous. In northern Europe, unemployment did not grow substantially or even fell: in Germany, for example, unemployment rate has actually declined from 7 to 5 percent. At the same time, in Greece unemployment has grown from 8 to 26 percent, in Spain — from 8 to 24 percent, and in Italy — from 6 to 13 percent. Why has unemployment dynamics been so different in European countries? The most common explanation is the difference in labor market institutions that prevents wages from adjusting downward. If wages cannot decline, negative aggregate demand shocks (such as the Great Recession) result in growth of unemployment.

The three economists wanted some way to test the impact of regulation, so they looked at the labor market for immigrants in Italy since some of them work in the formal (regulated) economy and some of them work in the shadow (unregulated) economy.

While this argument is straightforward, it is not easy to test empirically. Cross-country studies of labor markets are subject to comparability concerns. The same problems arise in comparing labor markets in different industries within the same country. In order to construct a convincing counterfactual for a regulated labor market, one needs to study a non-regulated labor market in the same sector within the same country. This is precisely what we do in this paper through comparing formal and informal markets in Italy over the course of 2004-12. We use a unique dataset, a large annual survey of immigrants working in Lombardy carried out by ISMU Foundation since 2004. …Our data cover 4000 full-time workers every year; one fifth of them works in the informal sector. The dataset is therefore sufficiently large to allow us comparing the evolution of wages in the formal and in the informal sector controlling for occupation, skills and other individual characteristics.

And what did they find?

In the absence of regulation, labor markets can adjust. The bad news for workers is that they get less pay. But the good news is that they’re more likely to still have jobs.

Our main result is presented in Figure 1. We do find that the wage differential between formal and informal sector has increased after 2008. Moreover, while the wages in the informal sector decreased by about 20 percent in 2008-12, the wages in the formal sector virtually did not fall at all. This is consistent with the view that there is substantial downward stickiness of wages in the regulated labor markets. …we find that both before and during the crisis, undocumented immigrants (those without a regular residence permit) are 9 percentage points more likely than documented immigrants to be in the labor force

Here’s the relevant chart from the study.

And here are some concluding thoughts from the study.

…despite the substantial growth of unemployment in 2008-12, the wages in the formal labor market have not adjusted. In the meanwhile, the wages in the unregulated informal labor market have declined substantially. The wage differential between formal and informal market that has been constant in 2004-08 has grown rapidly in 2008-12 from 18 to 35 percentage points. …These results are consistent with the view that regulation is responsible for lack of wage adjustment and increase in unemployment during the recessions.

For what it’s worth (and this is an important point), this helps explain why the Great Depression was so awful. Hoover and Roosevelt engaged in all sorts of interventions designed  to “help” workers. But the net effect of these policies was to prevent markets from adjusting. So what presumably would have been a typical recession turned into a decade-long depression.

So what’s the moral of the story? Good intentions aren’t good if they lead to bad results. Which brings me back to my original point about helping workers by minimizing government intervention.

CATO's Dan Mitchell refutes NY Times writer

Chuck-Schumer

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., talks with reporters after the Senate policy luncheons in the Capitol, May 5, 2015. (Photo: Getty/Tom Williams)

Incoming Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Senate Democrats plan to obstruct the confirmation of eight of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees. The strategy to delay the confirmation vote for a president-elect’s Cabinet picks represents a truly radical departure from tradition in the U.S. Senate.

“Any attempt by Republicans to have a series of rushed, truncated hearings before Inauguration Day and before the Congress and public have adequate information on all of them is something Democrats will vehemently resist,” Sen. Schumer said in a statement. “If Republicans think they can quickly jam through a whole slate of nominees without a fair hearing process, they’re sorely mistaken.”

According to a report in the leftwing Washington Post, Sen. Schumer recently told Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., of their intentions. People’s Pundit Daily has been told the delay is part of a larger strategy to obstruct the GOP in response to their promise to repeal ObamaCare. Senate Democrats, who along with House Democrats will meet with President Barack Obama on Wednesday to discuss the strategy further, are hoping to use the votes as leverage.

Senate Democrats intend to attack the following nominees:

  • Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state
  • Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, Trump’s nominee for attorney general
  • S.C. Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s nominee for the director of the Office of Management and Budget
  • Activist Betsy DeVos, Trump’s nominee for education secretary
  • Georgia Rep. Tom Price, Trump’s nominee for health and human services secretary
  • Andrew Puzder, Trump’s nominee for labor secretary
  • Steve Mnuchin, Trump’s nominee for treasury secretary
  • Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, Trump’s nominee for the head of the Environmental Protection Agency

Noticeably absent from Schumer’s list is Retired Gen. James Mattis, who was nominated for secretary of defense. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was nominated for ambassador to the United Nations, as well as and John Kelly, a former Marine general nominated for secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, also are not on the list.

Sen. Schumer claimed President-elect Trump is “attempting to fill his rigged cabinet with nominees that would break key campaign promises and have made billions off the industries they’d be tasked with regulating.”

Congress reconvenes this week and the Senate hearings are scheduled to begin next week. will begin hearings. The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to hold two days of hearings with Sen. Sessions, and the Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a one-day, two-part hearing with Mr. Tillerson. However, Democrats want hearings for each of the eight nominees to be held on separate weeks and no more than two Cabinet picks getting a hearing in the same week.

Republicans rejected the proposal, citing how the Senate in 2009 unanimously confirmed 7 of President Obama’s Cabinet nominees on Inauguration Day and another five later that same week. Not surprisingly, Sen. Schumer had no problem with that at the time.

“It’s curious that they’d object to treating the incoming president’s nominees with the same courtesy and seriousness with which the Senate acted on President Obama’s nominees,” Antonia Ferrier, a McConnell spokeswoman, told The Washington Post in an email. “Our committees and chairmen are fully capable of reviewing the incoming Cabinet nominations with the same rules and procedures as the same committees did with President Obama’s nominations.”

Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Senate

[brid video=”102808″ player=”2077″ title=”Van Jones ‘ Clinton days are over'”]

Van Jones, the far-left former advisor to President Barack Obama, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that “the Clinton days are over” and it’s time for Democrats to move on. However, underscoring the current debate in the decimated party following 8 electorally disaster years, he advocated in favor of a farther move to the left.

You also, I think, have to remember that Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are going to be there on the Senate floor every day. That’s going to be an important part. You have to understand, I think, that the — the Clinton days are over. This idea that were going to be this moderate party that’s going to move in this direction, that’s going to throw blacks under the bus for criminal justice reform and — or for — for prison expansion, that’s going to throw workers under the bus for NAFTA, those days are over. You can’t run and hide. You’ve got to be an authentic person from the beginning. You’re going to be judged based on your authentic commitment to the actual base of this party. And if you don’t do that, you can’t win.

Mr. Jones made headlines on election night when he called Election 2016 a “white lashing” in response to a black president, which the nation of course elected twice. Someone, in the eight years, Americans in swing states got more racist and the results had nothing to do with the Democrats nominating a candidate under criminal investigation who vowed to continue unpopular policies.

He also insinuated that he believes radical Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., the first Muslim lawmaker who has ties to radical Islamic groups, would have been a better vice presidential pick than Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine. Rep. Ellison has been accused of being an ethno-centric racist who is hostile to Jews.

The Anti-Defamation League bailed on his bid for the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) after audio surfaced revealing him making questionable comments about Jews.

Van Jones, the far-left former advisor to

ISIS executes spies video

Photo: The Clarion Project

The Islamic State (ISIS) on Monday claimed responsibility for the New Year’s attack at a popular Istanbul nightclub that killed 39 people and wounded roughly 70 others. The Aamaq News Agency said the attack was carried out by a “heroic soldier of the caliphate who attacked the most famous nightclub where Christians were celebrating their pagan feast.”

“We let infidel Turkey know that the blood of Muslims that is being shed by its airstrikes and artillery shelling will turn into fire on its territories,” the group said in a statement, describing Turkey as “the servant of the cross.”

The statement also insinuated the attack, which occurred at roughly 1:45 am., was a retaliation for the Turkish military offensives against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. But that didn’t deter Turkey from joining Russia in hitting more than 100 Islamic State targets in Syria on Monday in response to the attack.

Citing the Turkish Chief of General Staff’s office, Anadolu said Turkish jets struck eight IS group targets while tanks and artillery fired upon 103 targets near Al Bab, killing 22 extremists while destroying many structures. The Russian jets also attacked IS targets in Dayr Kak, eight kilometers (five miles) to the southwest of Al Bab.

A manhunt is still underway for the assailant, who was wearing a Santa Claus hat as he opened fire in the crowded Reina nightclub located in the Ortakoy district. The upscale nightclub is frequented by local celebrities, including singers, actors and sports athletes.

While the Islamic terrorist killed a policeman and another man outside the nightclub before entering, the attack appears to have targeted foreigners. Of the 600 people celebrating inside, nearly two-thirds of the dead were foreigners, though many of them were from the Middle East.

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Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported that Justice Ministry officials identified 38 of the 39 dead, and 11 of them were Turkish nationals. One of the deceased victims was a Turkish-Belgian dual citizen. The report identified 7 other victims as being from Saudi Arabia; three each were from Lebanon and Iraq; two each were from Tunisia, India, Morocco and Jordan. Kuwait, Canada, Israel, Syria and Russia each lost one citizen.

The latest terror attack on New Year’s followed more than 30 in Turkey during 2016, a member of the NATO alliance and a partner in the U.S.-led coalition fighting against the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq. Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had successfully brokered a ceasefire in Syria.

In December, ISIS released what could be their most barbaric video to date, showing the group burning two Turkish soldiers alive. They urged supporters to “conquer” Istanbul and claimed to have cells in the country. ISIS also bore responsibility for suicide bombings last January and March that targeted tourists on Istanbul’s iconic Istiklal Street as well as the attack at Ataturk Airport in June, which killed 45 people.

With the increased number of terror attacks over the past year, security had been heightened in Turkish cities, with police barring traffic leading up to key squares in Istanbul and the capital Ankara. In Istanbul, alone, some 17,000 police officers were on duty at the time, some of them disguised as Santa Claus and others as street vendors.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said the terrorist left a gun at the club and was able to escape by “taking advantage of the chaos” that followed the shooting. Authorities believe he changed his clothes before exiting the club. Some customers reportedly jumped into the freezing waters of the Bosporus to escape the hail of bullets. Sources tell People’s Pundit Daily that authorities believe the gunman comes from a Central Asian nation, likely Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan.

The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for

Since yesterday’s column was a look back on the good and bad things of 2016, let’s now look forward and speculate about the good and bad things that may happen in 2017.

I’m not pretending any of this is a forecast, particularly since economists have a miserable track record in that regard. Instead, the following lists are simply things I hope may happen or fear may happen.

We’ll start with the things I want.

  • Reform of healthcare entitlements – Republicans in 2017 will control Congress and the White House, so they’ll have the power to fix our broken entitlement system and dramatically improve America’s long-run outlook. And since the House and Senate GOPers have voted for budgets that presume much-need structural changes to Medicare and Medicaid, that bodes well for reform. The wild card is Donald Trump. He said some rather irresponsible things about entitlements during the campaign, which suggests he will leave policy on autopilot (which is not a good idea when we’re heading for a fiscal iceberg). On the other hand, politicians oftentimes disregard their campaign commitments (remember Obama and “you can keep your doctor“?), especially when they get in power and finally take a hard look at budget numbers. Perhaps the most optimistic sign is that Trump has appointed Budget Committee Chairman Congressman Tom Price to be Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services and Congressman Mick Mulvaney to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget.  I very much hope Trump seriously addresses the health entitlements.
  • A lower corporate tax rate, “expensing,” and repeal of the death tax – During the campaign, Trump proposed a very large tax cut. With Republicans controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, some sort of significant tax cut should be feasible. It’s highly unlikely that Trump will get everything he wants, but the three items at the top of my wish list are lowering the corporate tax rate, ending the tax code’s bias against new investment by replacing punitive “depreciation” rules with “expensing,” and repeal of the death tax. Those reforms would have the strongest impact on long-run growth. And the icing on the cake would be a repeal of the state and local tax deduction, which subsidizes high-tax states such as California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey (I’d also like to see repeal of the healthcare exclusion, but I’m focusing on things that might actually happen in 2017 rather than what’s on my fantasy list).
  • Regulatory reform – The tentacles of the regulatory octopus are stifling the American economy. There’s no single fix for this problem. The overall system for approving regulations should be changed (I will write on the “REINS Act” in a few days), but that’s a partial solution for future red tape. To deal with the existing burden of red tape, a different set of answers will be necessary, including sensible political appointees so that bureaucrats will have a harder time pushing for regulations that are needlessly expensive and misguided and instead will be charged with undoing existing red tape. In some cases (Dodd-Frank, ObamaCare, etc), it will be necessary to change current law in order to roll back regulatory excess.
  • Italian default – I’m not hoping for Italy to face a fiscal crisis, but it almost certainly will happen in the near future. The nation’s demographic decline, combined with its bloated welfare state, are a horrible recipe. And while it’s theoretically possible to avert a mess by capping spending and fixing programs (just as it is still possible to fix the mess in Greece), I don’t think good policy is very likely. So Italy will soon face a fiscal crisis and the real question is whether there’s a good response. Ideally, if this happens in 2017, Italy will be allowed to default (presumably because Trump’s representative at the International Monetary Fund vetoes any sort of bailout). This will mean, a) the people and institutions who were silly enough to lend money to a profligate government will suffer losses, making them more prudent in the future, b) Italy will lose the ability to borrow more money, putting an end to additional red ink, c) Italian politicians will be forced to immediately balance the government’s budget, which hopefully means genuine budget cuts, and d) the Italian people will (hopefully) realize that a system based on looting and mooching can no longer be maintained.

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Now here’s a list of things I’m afraid may happen.

  • Punting on entitlement Reform – As noted above, the wild card for any sort of genuine entitlement reform is Donald Trump. If he decides to to be President Santa Claus by appeasing various interest groups (like the previous GOPer in the White House), then reform will be dead. Simply stated, House and Senate Republicans will not push good changes without support from the White House. But that’s only a partial worst-case scenario. Trump may choose to be like the previous Republican President and actually expand entitlements (perhaps by borrowing a page from Elizabeth Warren’s playbook and expanding Social Security). If Trump decides to punt (or, gulp, make things worse), that has very grim implications. Reform will be dead for at least eight years (either because Trump gets reelected or because he’s replaced by a Democrat who also opposes reform) and the longer we wait to address the problem, the harder it will be to save America from a Greek fiscal future.
  • A “Poison Pill” in tax reform – While there is a great opportunity to fix some of the biggest warts in the internal revenue code, I worry that lawmakers will include some bad revenue raisers to help “pay for” the good provisions. I don’t think there’s any danger (at least for 2017) of a value-added tax, but the plan from House Republicans includes a “border adjustable”/”destination based” tax on imports (known as a DBCFT) that is not only protectionist, but could eventually morph into a VAT. A smaller tax cut without a DBCFT would be better than a bigger tax cut with a DBCFT.
  • An infrastructure boondoggle – It appears that some sort of infrastructure plan will be approved in 2017. I wrote last year to suggest three guidelines for the incoming Trump Administration on this issue, but I fear that this initiative will become a typical DC feeding frenzy. Lots of spending with no accountability.
  • Italian bailout – If the inevitable Italian fiscal crisis occurs in 2017, the worst possible outcome would be a Greek-style bailout. That approach has several undesirable implications. It will a) exacerbate moral hazard by rewarding the investors who bought Italian bonds, b) it will enable Italian politicians to incur more debt, and c) it will enable the Italian people to continue thinking that big government is good because someone else is paying for it. To be sure, because there’s so much more debt involved, bailing out Italy will be much harder than bailing out Greece. But so long as the corrupt and venal IMF plays a role, it’s always prudent to assume the worst policy will be imposed.

I hope all readers have a happy new year. And I hope. for the sake of America and the rest of the world, that the first half of today’s column is more accurate than the second half.

Yesterday’s column was a look back on

ObamaCare, Barack Obama's signature healthcare law overhaul, reflected in graphic image.

ObamaCare, Barack Obama’s signature healthcare law overhaul, represented in graphic image.

President Barack Obama will travel to Capitol Hill Wednesday to meet with Democrats to discuss fighting the repeal of ObamaCare, the president’s signature healthcare law. Mr. Obama has broken with precedent set by previous presidents who left office after his party was soundly defeated in the prior election.

Incoming Republican President Donald J. Trump has repeatedly called ObamaCare a “disaster” and vowed, if elected, he would work with lawmakers to repeal it. The president-elect has already met with GOP leaders on the Hill and will move within the first 100 days to reverse the 2010 law, which was passed without a single Republican vote in either the House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate.

“Step one is the ObamaCare replacement legislation at the start of the year,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said as members ended the 2016 session.

But Democrats have publicly expressed a willingness to fight the repeal of the bill, which Mr. Obama sees as a legacy domestic achievement. Democrats will publicly focus on roughly 22 million Americans who will be left without insurance before the 2018 midterm elections if the law is not in place. The political landscape in 2018 will be favorable to Republicans and presents several opportunities to pickup seats.

At least 10 incumbent Democrats in the U.S. Senate are up for reelection in states President-elect Trump either won handily or put into play. Still, Democrats clearly see the issue as one that could benefit them at the ballot box.

“Bring it on,” incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in response. Sen. Schumer was hoping to become majority leader after Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., announced before the election he would retire.

It’s a position the New York Democrat has long-sought and was denied after his party’s candidates were defeated in several battleground states most pundits expected Republican incumbents to lose, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told Democrats last week that they should come back “stand ready to fight vigorously for America’s hard-working families.” It’s an ironic statement from a defeated former House speaker who fought back a challenger from a working class district in Ohio. The Buckeye State voted for President-elect Trump and Republican incumbent Sen. Rob Portman overwhelmingly on Nov. 8.

The law remains deeply unpopular, even though there are some provisions the American public view favorably. But the GOP plans to phase out the law in an effort to keep certain popular provisions, such as protections for those with pre-existing conditions.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has already laid out a plan to repeal ObamaCare, as well as reform Medicare and Medicaid, in an attempt to give Americans better access to “quality, affordable health care.”

“ObamaCare is making things worse by the day. It drives up premiums and deductible costs for individuals, families and businesses,” Speaker Ryan said outlining his “Better Way” plan. “ObamaCare must be fully repealed so we can start over and take a new approach.”

Barack Obama will travel to Capitol Hill

Ambulances rushing away from the scene of an attack in Istanbul, early Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017.

Ambulances rushing away from the scene of an attack in Istanbul, early Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017.

A manhunt is underway for an assailant in a Santa Claus hat who opened fire at a crowded nightclub in Istanbul during New Year’s celebrations, killing 39 and wounding 70 others. Istanbul Governor Vasip Sahin said the attack occurred in the early hours of Sunday during New Year’s celebrations at the Reina nightclub, in the Ortakoy district.

“Unfortunately (he) rained bullets in a very cruel and merciless way on innocent people who were there to celebrate New Year’s and have fun,” Sahin told reporters.

Gov. Sahin said the attacker was armed with a long-barreled weapon and killed a policeman, as well as a civilian outside the club before entering and firing on people celebrating the New Year inside. He told reporters it was a “terror attack,” which occurred at roughly 1:45 am.

“Our security forces have started the necessary operations. God willing he will be caught in a short period of time,” said Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu.

Minister Soylu also added officials believe the lone attacker left the nightclub wearing different clothing after entering from the shores of the Bosporus, which is on the European side of the city.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned “the terror attack in Istanbul’s Ortakoy neighborhood in the first hours of 2017” and offered condolences for those who lost their lives, including “foreign guests.” Officials said an 18-year-old Israeli woman and a Belgian national were among the dead, and the two countries’ foreign ministries confirmed that information.

Overall, Minister Soylu said at least 15 of the dead were foreign nationals, while 5 of the victims were identified as Turkish nationals. Authorities were still trying to identify the rest, but Minister of Family and Social Policies Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya said citizens of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Lebanon, Libya were among those hurt in the attack.

Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry said three Lebanese citizens were wounded.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack and officials haven’t named any suspects or groups. However, the worst of the attacks in Turkey during 2016–which claimed the lives of more than 180 people–were perpetrated by the Islamic State (ISIS) or Kurdish militants. Turkey is a partner in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, but they are also experiencing renewed hostilities with Kurdish rebels in the southeast.

“Turkey continues its combat against terror and is absolutely determined to do whatever is necessary in the region to ensure its citizens safety and peace,” said President Erdoğan in a written statement on Sunday. The attack comes as Turkey and Russia brokered a tenuous ceasefire deal in Syria, excluding the United States. The White House condemned what it called a “horrific terrorist attack” and offered aid to Turkey, which is a NATO member.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent President Erdoğan a personal telegram offering his condolences, stating “it is hard to imagine a more cynical crime than killing innocent people during New Year celebrations.”

“However, terrorists don’t share moral values,” Mr. Putin added. “Our common duty is to combat terrorists’ aggression.”

With the number of terror attacks over the past year, security had been heightened in Turkish cities, with police barring traffic leading up to key squares in Istanbul and the capital Ankara. In Istanbul, alone, some 17,000 police officers were on duty at the time. Ironically, some of them were disguised as Santa Claus and others as street vendors, Turkey’s Anadolu news agency reported.

Only a few weeks ago on Dec. 10, Istanbul was the victim of a double bomb attack outside a soccer stadium located near the Reina nightclub. Forty-five people were killed and some 150 were wounded in the attack claimed by the Kurdish Freedom Falcons, a Kurdish militant group based in Turkey.

Officials estimated roughly 600 people were celebrating inside the club at the time of the attack, which is frequented by famous local celebrities, including singers, actors and sports athletes.

A manhunt is on for an assailant

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