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Economy

housing-starts-new-home-construction

New home construction workers. (Photo: Reuters)

The Commerce Department said Friday housing starts plummeted 18.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.090 million in November. That missed the median economic forecast for 1.230 million, while building permits, which are a sign of future activity, came in at 1.201 also missing the estimate for 1.240 million.

Housing starts in October were upwardly revised to a 1.34 million-unit rate, the highest since July 2007 and the widest gap between permits and starts for the year. A decline in starts was widely expected to bring them more in line with permits. Housing starts data, which is volatile month-to-month, showed declines in all four regions last month.

The housing market remains on shaky ground even as mortgage rates have jumped to more than two-year highs following the election of Donald Trump as the next president. A survey on Thursday showed homebuilders’ confidence in December hitting its highest level since July 2005, with builders anticipating strong sales.

Last month, single-family home building, which accounts for the largest share of the residential housing market, fell 4.1 percent to an 828,000-unit pace. Single-family starts rose to nine-year high in October.

The housing market is being supported by a tightening labor market, which is starting to drive up wages.

Housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment tumbled 45.1 percent to a 262,000-unit pace.

Permits for future construction fell 4.7 percent in November. Single-family permits rose 0.5 percent last month, while building permits for multi-family units dropped 13.0 percent.

The Commerce Department said Friday housing starts

Video

[brid video=”85170″ player=”2077″ title=”Newsweek’s Kurt Eichenwald’s Painfully ‘Nutty’ Interview on Tucker Carlson Tonight”]

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Newsweek’s Kurt Eichenwald went on several unhinged rants to avoid defending claims he made on Twitter about Donald Trump. Carlson grilled Eichenwald about several tweets that he said made clear he was an advocate, not a journalist at the publication.

“I believe Trump was institutionalized in a mental hospital for a nervous breakdown in 1990, which is why he won’t release medical records,” Eichenwald tweeted.

But rather than answer what was a yes or no question–which was he had any evidence to back up whether Trump was in a mental hospital or not–Eichenwald just droned on about meaningless background in an effort to filibuster.

“Would you like me to answer the question or not?” he asked Carlson at one point. “You’re not fooling anybody, you’re trying to stop me from giving the answer.”

Several times he held up what appeared to be a binder labeled “Tucker Carlson Falsehoods.”

“This is a little nutty,” Tucker said chuckling. “I gotta be honest!”

Finally, Carlson ended the interview.

“I’m concerned about your behavior on this show tonight.”

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Newsweek's

Politics

FILE - In this Aug. 17, 2016, file photo, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump participates in a roundtable discussion on national security in his offices in Trump Tower in New York, with Ret. Army Gen. Mike Flynn, left, Ret. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg. Trump’s transition team is rich with lobbyists, a climate change-denier and an ex-federal prosecutor involved in the mass firings of U.S. attorneys. Kellogg has been working closely with Trump adviser Flynn, advising the Trump campaign on matters relating to foreign policy and national security. (Photo: AP, File)

FILE – In this Aug. 17, 2016, file photo, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump participates in a roundtable discussion on national security in his offices in Trump Tower in New York, with Ret. Army Gen. Mike Flynn, left, Ret. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg. Trump’s transition team is rich with lobbyists, a climate change-denier and an ex-federal prosecutor involved in the mass firings of U.S. attorneys. Kellogg has been working closely with Trump adviser Flynn, advising the Trump campaign on matters relating to foreign policy and national security. (Photo: AP, File)

President-elect Donald J. Trump intends to name retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg and Monica Crowley to top posts on the National Security Council. People’s Pundit Daily has learned Lt. Gen. Kellogg will be tapped for chief of staff and executive secretary of the National Security Council and Monica Crowley for senior director of strategic communications for the National Security Council.

“The United States is an exceptional country and these are two exceptional individuals who have agreed to fulfill the president-elect’s pledge of putting America first once again,” retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, who was named national security advisor-designate, said in a statement. “I am honored to have General Kellogg and Dr. Crowley on the National Security Council team.”

Lt. Gen. Kellogg served in the 101st Airborne Division and as a special forces adviser to the Cambodian Army during the Vietnam War. In 1996, he was named commander of the 82nd Airborne Division and rose to the rank of Lieutenant General. From 2003 to 2004, after the invasion of Iraq, he helped lead the Coalition Provisional Authority and served as chief operating officer for the CPA, the transition government.

Upon retiring from active duty, Lt. Gen. Kellogg joined Oracle Corporation as an adviser to its homeland security division and he makes the fourth general to be named to the new administration. In addition to Lt. Gen. Flynn, President-elect Trump thus far has nominated retired Marine Gen. James Mattis for secretary of defense and retired Marine Gen. John Kelly for secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

“I am honored to not only be a part of this historic administration but also to be serving with General Flynn and K.T. McFarland, who are widely respected as some of the most experienced and strategic national security minds,” Lt. Gen. Kellogg said in a statement. “Together, with the incredibly talented Dr. Crowley, the NSC will help lead President-elect Trump’s national security agenda.”

Ms. Crowley, a contributor at Fox News, worked under President Richard Nixon as foreign policy assistant and communications director. She has been an editor and contributor at The Washington Times and will now work under Gen. Flynn.

“I am deeply honored, humbled and grateful to be asked by the president-elect to join the extraordinary national security team he is assembling,” Ms. Crowley said. “With vision, courage and moral clarity, he is committed fully to re-establishing America’s singular place in the world. He is also committed to selecting the best people for the jobs of keeping the American people safe and the country secure. It will be a great privilege to serve with them.”

A FOX News spokesperson said her contract was terminated following the announcement. She stepped down from both positions at The Washington Times in the wake of her appointment, executive editor Christopher Dolan told POLITICO.

President-elect Donald J. Trump intends to name

Economy

mid-atlantic-manufacturing-aluminium-raw-materials-reuters

A worker in the mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector works with raw aluminum materials. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s gauge of factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region, increased to 21.5 in December. That’s up from a reading of 7.6 the month prior and significantly higher than the median forecast calling for a reading of 9.

A reading above zero indicates expansion, while those below indicate contraction.

As was the cast with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released earlier today, manufacturers are far more optimistic about the future than they are about current conditions, particularly the next six months. Nearly 58% of the firms anticipate gains in manufacturing activity over the next six months, compared with 36% last month.

Special Question (December 2016)

1. What percentage change in costs do you expect for the following categories in 2017?
Energy
(%)
Other Raw Materials
(%)
Intermediate Goods
(%)
Wages
(%)
Health Benefits
(%)
Nonhealth Benefits
(%)
Wages & Health Benefits & Nonhealth Benefits
(%)
Decline of more than 4% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Decline of 3-4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0
Decline of 2-3% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 1.7
Decline of 1-2% 8.3 3.3 0.0 1.7 3.3 1.7 0.0
No Change 36.7 21.7 22.0 8.3 8.3 32.8 1.7
Increase of 1-2% 10.0 13.3 30.5 15.0 1.7 13.8 6.8
Increase of 2-3% 16.7 26.7 27.1 58.3 5.0 19.0 16.9
Increase of 3-4% 11.7 20.0 11.9 16.7 8.3 19.0 25.4
Increase of 4-5% 8.3 1.7 6.8 0.0 8.3 5.2 15.3
Increase of 5-7.5% 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 3.4 8.5
Increase of 7.5-10% 0.0 6.7 1.7 0.0 10.0 0.0 11.9
Increase of 10-12.5% 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.0 5.1
Increase of 12.5-15% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 1.7
Increase of 15-20% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.7 3.4
Increase of more than 20% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 1.7 1.7
Median 0.0 2.5 1.5 2.5 6.3 2.0 3.5
Average 1.1 2.7 2.0 2.2 7.9 2.4 5.4

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, the Philadelphia

News

manufacturing-reuters

Surveys gauging manufacturing growth or contraction in Empire State. (REUTERS)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a gauge of regional factory activity conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, rose in December more than expected. Empire State manufacturing increased to 9.00, up from a reading of 1.50 in November.

The median forecast had called for a reading to 4.00. Readings above 0 point to expansion, while those below indicate contraction.

Despite the more modest-than-expected gain, labor market conditions remained weak and manufacturers reported declines in both employment and hours worked, as was the case in November. The index for number of employees remained unchanged at -12.2, indicating employment levels continued to weaken. The average workweek index, which clocked in at -7.0, pointed to a decline in hours worked that will bode poorly for wages in the future.

The prices paid index rose seven points to 22.6, suggesting input price increases accelerated, and the prices received index held steady at 3.5, signaling another small increase in selling prices this month.

While current conditions are unimpressive, as we’ve seen in other sectors and indicators, more respondents have been more optimistic about the future since Donald J. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the November election. Indexes for the six-month outlook gained even more, indicating respondents are very optimistic about the future. The index for future business conditions skyrocketed by twenty points to 50.2, which is its highest level in nearly five years. Sixty-one (61%) percent of respondents expect conditions to improve in the months ahead.

The index for future new orders climbed eighteen points to 46.7, and the index for future shipments increased fourteen points to 40.1. The index for future employment indicated that firms expected to expand employment significantly. The capital expenditures index climbed nine points to 21.7, and the technology spending index rose four points to 12.2.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a gauge

News

An employee at Home Depot (NYSE:HD) beyond a now hiring sign at a satellite location. (Photo: Reuters)

An employee at Home Depot (NYSE:HD) beyond a now hiring sign at a satellite location. (Photo: Reuters)

The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 254,000 for the week ending December 10, lower than the median forecast anticipating 255,000. The prior week was unchanged at 258,000.

This marks 93 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. However, longterm unemployment and shrinking participation has also resulted in a shrinking pool of eligible applicants.

The four-week moving average was 257,750, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 252,500.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims and no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending November 26. This marks 93 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 26 were in Alaska (4.5), Puerto Rico (2.7), New Jersey (2.5), California (2.4), Montana (2.3), the Virgin Islands (2.3), Connecticut (2.2), West Virginia (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.1), Wyoming (2.1), and Nevada (2.0).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 3 were in New York (+15,066), Pennsylvania (+11,873), California (+11,480), Texas (+9,317), and Georgia (+5,687), while the largest decreases were in Vermont (-202), Nebraska (-71), North Dakota (-51), and Kansas (-2).

The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims

Economy

consumer-price-index-tv

(Photo: REUTERS)

The Labor Department reported Thursday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed consumer prices increased 0.2% in November, matching expectations. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, prices were also 0.2% higher, meeting the median forecast.

The report comes a day after the Federal Reserve announced their decision to hike interest rates for the second time since 2006, adding a more optimistic forecast for the timing, number and trajectory of hikes next year. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is currently at 1.7%.

In the 12 months through November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) gained 1.7%, which was the largest year-on-year increase since October 2014. The CPI rose 1.6% on the year to October and advanced 0.4% in the month of October.

Meanwhile, the so-called core CPI that excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% after ticking up only 0.1% in October. Rents accounted for most of the increase in the core CPI last month. Despite the increase, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI was unchanged at 2.1%. The cost of medical care services rose 0.2% while gasoline prices gained 2.7%. That follows another large 7.0% increase the month prior.

The Labor Department reported Thursday the Consumer

Politics

Michigan Republican Party Chairman Ronna Romney McDaniel arrives before President-elect Donald Trump takes the stage at a rally at DeltaPlex Arena, Friday, Dec. 9, 2016, in Grand Rapids, Mich. (Photo: AP)

Michigan Republican Party Chairman Ronna Romney McDaniel arrives before President-elect Donald Trump takes the stage at a rally at DeltaPlex Arena, Friday, Dec. 9, 2016, in Grand Rapids, Mich. (Photo: AP)

President-elect Donald J. Trump Wednesday tapped Ronna Romney McDaniel–the head of the Michigan Republican Party–for chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC). Unlike her uncle Gov. Mitt Romney, who was passed up for secretary of state, McDaniel was an early Trump supporter and would replace Reince Priebus as the head of the RNC in 2017.

“I’m excited to have a highly effective leader in Ronna McDaniel as RNC Deputy Chair and I look forward to her serving as the Party’s Chairman in 2017,” President-elect Trump said in a statement. “Ronna has been extremely loyal to our movement and her efforts were critical to our tremendous victory in Michigan, and I know she will bring the same passion to the Republican National Committee.”

With McDaniel the head of the Michigan GOP, the New York businessman was the first Republican to carry The Great Lakes State since 1988. While it is his decision to nominate for the post, the RNC would need to formally install her for the role next month. However, his nominee is expected to be affirmed.

To pave the way for the announcement, President-elect Trump said on Wednesday that McDaniel will serve as RNC deputy chairwoman and Trump for President Ohio State Director Bob Paduchik will be RNC deputy co-chairman.

President-elect Donald J. Trump backed Ronna Romney

Economy

Janet-Yellen-Federal-Reserve

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. (Photo: Reuters)

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday finally raised interest rates after a year of anticipation and for only the second time since 2006. The decision to hike rates by just a 0.25 percentage point to a range of 0.50% – 0.75% was unanimous and coupled with a more optimistic outlook by the U.S. central bank for future rate hikes.

“Our decision to raise rates…is a reflection in the confidence we have in the progress the economy has made and our judgment that progress will continue,” Fed Chief Janet Yellen said at a press conference following the decision. “And the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient, so it is a vote of confidence in the economy.”

Yellen offered a carefully choreographed public message after the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s final two-day meeting of the year. The policy-making committee cited continued economic improvement including “solid” job gains, increased consumer spending and rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve also increased its outlook on anticipated interest rate hikes from 2 to 3 in 2017, though the Chairwoman Yellen stressed the pace of those rate would remain “gradual,” as it expects only “moderate” economic growth over the next year. The central bank estimates only a 2.1% annualized economic growth for 2017, with unemployment rate of 4.5% and core inflation rising to 1.9%.

“We’re operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment and we have time to wait and see what changes occur and factor those into our decision making as we gain greater clarity,” Ms. Yellen said. “Market participants are uncertain too, and I would expect changes in our understanding in what’s going to happen to also affect market prices as we move forward.”

However, the latest forecast looks a lot like the forecast last December, which projected 4 rate hikes and some analysts are suggesting it is still too aggressive.

“I think the bite out of growth from the higher rates we’ve already seen from the back up in the long end of the curve will mean two rate increases next year,” said Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG. “Add to that the fact we only need about 134,000 average job growth next year to get to the 4.5% unemployment rate with the current participation rate, and we’re already looking at a slower growth trajectory.”

A Labor Department report released earlier this week indicated inflation was not going to hit the Fed’s 2% target anytime soon. The U.S. dollar (USDUSD) has surged post-election relative to the currencies of its main trading partners after slipping from June 2014 to January 2016, causing deflation to be imported, which in turn has kept inflation below the Fed’s 2% target.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday finally raised

Politics

rick-perry-2016-presidential-announcement

Marcus and Morgan Luttrell were seen standing behind Rick Perry during the former Texas governor’s 2016 presidential announcement.

President-elect Donald J. Trump announced Wednesday he intends to nominate former Texas Gov. Rick Perry as Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Sources told People’s Pundit Daily earlier in the week that the chose had been made to tap the former rival and now it’s official.

“As the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry created created a business climate that produced millions of new jobs and lower energy prices in his state, and he will bring that same approach to our entire country as Secretary of Energy,” President-elect Trump said in a statement. “My administration is going to make sure we take advantage of our huge natural resource deposits to make America energy independent and create vast new wealth for our nation, and Rick Perry is going to do an amazing job as the leader of that process.”

The former and popular Texas governor represents the second major cabinet announcement this week, following Mr. Trump making public his choice to nominate Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson for Secretary of the State Department (DOS). As the 47th top executive of Texas from 2000 to 2015, a still-popular Gov. Perry oversaw the world’s 12th largest economy and major energy-producing state.

“It is a tremendous honor to be selected to serve as Secretary of Energy by President-elect Trump. I am deeply humbled by his trust in me,” said Gov. Perry. “As the former governor of the nation’s largest energy producing state, I know American energy is critical to our economy and our security. I look forward to engaging in a conversation about the development, stewardship and regulation of our energy resources, safeguarding our nuclear arsenal, and promoting an American energy policy that creates jobs and puts America first.”

After exiting the 2016 Republican presidential nomination contest, Gov. Perry endorsed his fellow-Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. While his relationship with Mr. Trump at the time had not yet matured to what it is today, it was a far cry from how it started. Immediately after he announced his bid for the Republican nomination at Trump Tower in June, 2015, Gov. Perry called him a “cancer on conservatism” that needed to be “cut out before it metastasized.”

However, now with several major cabinet and advisor posts filled, it has become clear that President-elect Trump intends to nominate and appoint one of the most conservative administrations in history. As far as Gov. Perry’s record, he led the state of Texas into an economic boom even as the rest of the country continued to suffer as a result of the Great Recession.

Not only did Texas experience stronger job growth than the rest of the nation from 2000 to 2013, but according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas it led the nation in creation of jobs at all pay levels, too.

“Texas has also created more ‘good’ than ‘bad’ jobs,” the Fed report stated. “Jobs in the top half of the wage distribution experienced disproportionate growth. The two upper wage quartiles were responsible for 55 percent of net new jobs. A similar pie chart cannot be made for the rest of the U.S., which lost jobs in the lower-middle quartile over the period.”

President-elect Donald J. Trump announced Wednesday he

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