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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist as he arrives to speak during a campaign rally, Monday, Nov. 7, 2016, in Manchester, N.H. From back left are Eric Trump, Vanessa Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Republican vice presidential candidate Gov. Mike Pence, R-Ind., Karen Pence, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and Tiffany Trump. (Photo: AP)

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist as he arrives to speak during a campaign rally, Monday, Nov. 7, 2016, in Manchester, N.H. From back left are Eric Trump, Vanessa Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Republican vice presidential candidate Gov. Mike Pence, R-Ind., Karen Pence, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and Tiffany Trump. (Photo: AP)

President-elect Donald J. Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence will kick off a “Thank You” America tour in Indiana and Ohio on Thursday. In Indiana, they will formally announce a deal struck with Carrier to keep roughly 1,000 jobs in the United States, marking the fulfillment of a major campaign promise.

Carrier, which is owned by United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX), manufactures products offering high-tech heating, air-conditioning & refrigeration solutions for residential, commercial, retail, transport & foodservice. They announced in February that they planned to move a plant and more than a thousand jobs to Mexico.

Though he hasn’t even taken office yet, the deal to keep Carrier jobs in Indianapolis marks the second economic promise delivered. The New York businessman made manufacturing and trade major campaign issues, highlighting the impact of globalization on the U.S. economy and the American worker. Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Indiana, the vice president-elect’s home state, by roughly 20 points (57% to 38%) and far more than media public polls indicated.

Two weeks ago, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) also announced they would not move forward on plans to ship a manufacturing plant and those jobs to Mexico. As PPD reported during the Republican primary, from the third quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2015, The Hoosier State lost at least 113,000 manufacturing jobs, a conservative number that factors both jobs created by exports and jobs displaced by imports.

Meanwhile, the percentage of all private sector jobs that are manufacturing jobs in the state of Indiana fell from 28% to 20.2% during the NAFTA-WTO period. On Wednesday, the transition team alluded to more deals to come, telling reporters “there’s more where that came from.”

As PPD reported during the Republican primary, the state of Indiana lost The two men will also be in Ohio, a bellwether battleground state that also went for the Trump-Pence ticket by a large margin (8 points).

President-elect Donald J. Trump and Vice President-elect

New York Times (NYT) building in New York City. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

New York Times (NYT) building in New York City. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

When I write about gun control, I generally make two arguments.

  • First, criminals are lawbreakers, so the notion that they will be disarmed because of gun control is a fantasy. Crooks and thugs who really want a gun will always have access to black-market weapons.
  • Second, to the extent that good people obey bad gun-control laws (and hopefully they won’t), that will encourage more criminal activity since bad people will be less worried about armed resistance.

These points are common sense, but they doesn’t seem to convince many leftists, who have a religious-type faith that good intentions will produce good results (they need to read Bastiat!).

Every so often, however, the other side accidentally messes up.

As part of its never-ending, ideologically driven campaign to undermine gun rights, the New York Times ran a big 5,000-plus word story last month about mass shootings. Creating hostility to guns was the obvious goal of this “news” report.

But buried in all that verbiage was a remarkable admission. A big majority of shooters already are in violation of gun laws.

The New York Times examined all 130 shootings last year in which four or more people were shot, at least one fatally, and investigators identified at least one attacker. …64 percent of the shootings involved at least one attacker who violated an existing gun law.

And for the 36 percent of the nutjobs in the story who purchased or obtained guns legally, almost all of them presumably would have gotten their hands on weapons even if they had to violate minor laws on guns prior to violating major laws against murder.

So what the New York Times and other anti-second amendment activists are really saying is that honest people should be defenseless even though bad guys always will have the ability to arm themselves. And by making such a preposterous claim, they actually provided ammo (pun intended) for those of us who defend the Second Amendment.

P.S. Maybe we should give the New York Times a “Wrong-Way Corrigan Award” for inadvertently helping to make the libertarian case for more freedom! Oh, and give Trevor Noah the Award at the same time.

P.P.S. Years ago, I used to post lots of gun-control humor. I’ve gotten out of the habit, but I can’t resist sharing some items that popped into my inbox yesterday.

This one of my favorites.

And this brought back fond childhood memories. Somehow I avoided becoming a killer even though I grew up watching Yosemite Sam, Elmer Fudd, and other trigger-happy angry white men. Not to mention shows like Combat and Rat Patrol!

Last but not least, this reminds me that crazed mass shooters are always sufficiently un-crazy that they manage to pick out gun-free zones before engaging in their rampages.

So maybe, just maybe, the problem isn’t guns. Indeed, perhaps we can draw the conclusion that society will be safer if more good people are armed.

Heck, even big-city police chiefs are beginning to reach that conclusions.

In a 5,000-plus word story last month

Speaker-Paul-Ryan-Leader-Nancy-Pelosi

Now House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., talk to reporters about the budget fight in December, 2015. (Photo: M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO)

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was re-elected to an eighth term as the leader of House Democrats despite a challenge from Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan. Minority Leader Pelosi’s re-election comes after she promised and failed to regain control of the lower chamber and as a great disappointment to the wing of the party that recognized why they have taken such heavy losses throughout Barack Obama’s presidency.

“Clearly, this didn’t turn out the way we wanted,” Rep. Ryan said after the vote. “We knew it was going to be an uphill battle. … We needed to get out the economic message. I’m disappointed, but I think the party’s better off because of this.”

In Rep. Ryan’s home state, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was defeated by President-elect Donald J. Trump by nearly double-digits, 52.1% to 43.5%. It was the first time a Republican managed to carry the battleground state since 2004 and the largest margin since 1988. George W. Bush won it over John Kerry in 2004 by only 2 points.

But this time, hundreds of thousands of voters who backed President Obama in both 2008 and 2012 voted for President-elect Trump over Clinton and incumbent Sen. Rob Portman over Clinton-ally and Democrat Ted Strickland.

“If this isn’t a full-blown display of how tone-deaf the Democratic Party has become, then I don’t know what is,” said Rich Baris, who designed and oversaw PPD Polling during Election 2016. “Mr. Ryan is from the Rust Belt, from an area where Democratic candidates were routed because they lost touch with working-class Americans. Replacing Pelosi with someone like that would’ve sent a signal to these Americans saying, ‘hey, we heard you.'”

Still, some members were optimistic that they at least made their point, including Ohio Rep. Marcia Fudge. She, along with the few House Democrats who backed Ryan, insisted the effort to replace Pelosi was not a failure.

“We didn’t lose today,” she said, interrupting reporters at the post-vote press conference. “We now have a leadership team that listens to us. … Today, we made our caucus more representative of our members.”

But the numbers don’t lie and they aren’t confined to the House of Representatives. From 2008 to 2016, the Democratic Party has lost a net 9 seats in the U.S. Senate, 63 in the U.S. House of Representatives, 13 governorships, 949 state legislative seats and full control of 29 state legislatures.

The net 63-seat loss in the House under Pelosi tops the closest presidential tenure during the Nixon-Ford era by 14 seats. In other words, Democrats under President Obama underperformed their party’s candidates during Bill Clinton’s impeachment in the 1990s and their rival GOP candidates during and after the WaterGate scandal.

Yet, despite the effort by members who are forced to defend working-class districts in 2018, House Democrats largely filled the top leadership roles with East and West coast liberals. Not a single one is from the heartland or the Rust Belt.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was re-elected to

pending-home-sales-reuters

Existing and pending home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors. Photo: Reuters)

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) conducted by the National Association of Realtors rose by just 0.1% in October, missing the 0.2% forecast. The PHSI, which reports on contracts to buy previously-owned homes, inched higher to 110.0 in October from a slight downward revision of 109.9 in September.

“Most of the country last month saw at least a small increase in contract signings and more notably, activity in all four major regions is up from a year ago,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said. “Despite limited listings and steadfast price growth that’s now carried into the fall, buyer demand has remained strong because of the consistently reliable job creation in a majority of metro areas.”

Regionally, in the Northeast the PHSI slugged along at 0.4% to 96.9 in October, though is now 3.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest, it rose 1.6% to 106.3 and is now 1.2% above the level measured in October 2015.

In the South, pending home sales fell 1.3% to 120.1 but are still 0.8% above last October. Finally, the index in the West increased slightly by 0.7% to 108.3 and is 2.5% above a year ago.

Overall, the PHSI is now 1.8% higher than last October (108.1) and Mr. Yun expects existing sales at the end of 2016 to clock in at a pace of roughly 5.36 million. That surpasses 2015 (5.25 million) and would be the highest since 2006 (6.48 million).

“Low supply has kept prices elevated all year and has put pressure on the budgets of buyers,” Mr. Yun added. “With mortgage rates expected to rise into next year and put added strain on affordability, sales expansion will be contingent on more inventory coming onto the market and continued job gains.”

[brid video=”81677″ player=”2077″ title=”YouTube Contract Signings Inch Up in October”]

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) conducted

An officer blocks the scene as police respond to reports of an active shooter on campus at Ohio State University on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo: AP)

An officer blocks the scene as police respond to reports of an active shooter on campus at Ohio State University on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo: AP)

The Islamic State (ISIS) Tuesday claimed responsibility for the attack at Ohio State University, calling Abdul Razak Ali Artan a “soldier of the caliphate.” ISIS said Artan, a Somali refugee and student at Ohio State University, was acting on the terror group’s behalf Monday when he drove a car over a curb and into a group of people.

He then got out of the car and attacked them with a knife, injuring 11 before the school’s public safety director, identified Alan Horujko shot him dead.

“The executor of the attack in the American state of Ohio is a soldier of the Islamic State and he carried out the operation in response to calls to target citizens of international coalition countries,” the Islamic State’s Amaq news agency said on Tuesday.

While no specific evidence has emerged to indicate Artan had communicated with Islamic State members, he wrote on his Facebook page before the attack that he had reached a “boiling point” and actually referenced “lone wolf attacks,” as well as radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

“America! Stop interfering with other countries, especially Muslim Ummah (community). We are not weak. We are not weak, remember that,” the post said.

osu-lantern-abdul-razak-ali-artan

On his very first day at OSU, he spoke with the Lantern, the campus publication, and said that he was “kind of scared” to pray in public. “If people look at me, a Muslim praying, I don’t know what they’re going to think, what’s going to happen,” Artan was quoted as saying in the Lantern.

Two law enforcement sources also confirmed to PPD that the style of attack was encouraged in a recent issue of the Islamic State’s online magazine. That excerpt was also strikingly familiar to an al-Qaeda publication.

The Islamic State (ISIS) Tuesday claimed responsibility

anti-free-speech

The assault of our freedom of speech on college campuses and beyond.

Truth. It’s the first commodity to disappear from the shelves when tyranny takes hold. Though, of course, not the only one. Sixties, Kiev, USSR. My mom throws down to me from our fifth-floor window some coins wrapped in a handkerchief. “Go stand in line”, she says. I go. The line is a mix of anxiety and fatalism. “Shto dayut (what are they giving)”, the anxious ask. “Shto vsegda (same as always)”, the fatalists reply. The store is all shelves and a huge counter. The shelves are existentially, transcendentally empty. So is the counter, except for a very large analog scale, which is never used. A zaftig babushka in an off-white apron and a headscarf is behind the counter. I give her my coins and in return get a parcel wrapped in paper. I leave.

I have no idea what is in the parcel; it could be sausage, or butter, or sugar, or that most elusive and exotic of all consumer goods – instant coffee. Several hours after the coin drop I am home with my parcel. Life goes on.

In the 1984 movie “Moscow on the Hudson”, a Soviet jazz musician, brilliantly played by the late Robin Williams encounters, for the first time, an American supermarket. He ends up in his apartment with a can of cat food and a nervous breakdown. Soviet “news” organizations such as Pravda, Izvestya, TASS, etc. had many reporters stationed in places like Washington DC and New York City. And yes, these guys lived in regular American apartments, drove regular American cars, and shopped in regular American supermarkets. Of course, they very well knew that their readership would be very interested in the material abundance that was so commonplace in America, but reporting on it was as impossible as exceeding the speed of light.

They say, erroneously, that nature abhors a vacuum. In fact, most of the universe is precisely that. Emptiness. The saying is true, however, when it comes to the goods that were not present on the shelves of my childhood store. Their absent volume was in fact filled by a mixture of gases known as thin air. Truth on the other hand, is a different kind of commodity; one that is impossible to replace with thin air. Empty news pages and dead “air” are laughably impossible even in the most totalitarian of societies. Thus, in its absence truth is replaced by something that can simply be described as untruth.

Here’s an item I would have liked to see on the shelves of the “main stream media” superstore last night:

“Where did you get the numbers”, you may ask, and you would be right, I made them up. Where are the real numbers, media? In my delirium, I can imagine this graph sitting on the shelf right next to a report on how many mass murders by vehicle were attempted worldwide since 9/11 and how many of these were perpetrated by folks who were not radicalized Muslims. In the “impulse buy” display, just by the checkout line, I can see interviews with the friends, neighbors, and teachers of one Abdul Razak Ali Artan, perhaps (we are dreaming after all) asking them if they have seen any signs of radicalization and were afraid to report them so as not to be diagnosed with incurable islamophobia and have their lives ruined forever.

But, back to reality, dead “air” not being an option, Rachel Maddow on MSNBC leads with a much more truthful and relevant story. She is clearly very passionate about it; she really cares! (Does she practice these moves in front of a mirror like you-know-who notoriously used to do?). The hard-hitting journalist Ms. Maddow presents us with the following thesis: Trump, who on November 7th was an abject failure in business is now an evil gazillioner.

His greed knows no bounds. And so, in his insanity, he risks over 100 million dollars and 18 months of hard labor on a venture that per all the cognoscenti had less than 10% chance of success, i.e. becoming POTUS and using this position to (gasp) enrich himself. And Ms. Maddow has irrefutable proof! Trump, who in the last six months inaugurated two properties on both sides of the Atlantic worth close to a combined billion dollars (that’s nine figures), has about one hundred thousand dollars (that’s five figures) invested in a company that has an interest in an oil pipeline project that is delayed by a land dispute. So there you have it. Trump the POTUS can put an end to the land dispute. The pipeline will be built! Trump’s stock can (may we hope?) double in value and he will pocket a hefty 100k profit, on which he of course will pay no tax! QED. Quod Ergo Demonstrandum.

The sad reality is that not a single media outlet that calls itself mainstream can report the truth on the big issues of our time any more than Pravda could report on the mercantile abundance in the West. In this Bill O’Reilly is no different than Rachel Maddow. One can only hope that if we are ever so lucky as to find ourselves within reach of an abundance of truth, we don’t reach for the cat food.

From Bill O’Reilly to Rachel Maddow, not

Midwest-Auto-manufacturing-factory

Auto manufacturing plant and worker in Midwest. (Photo: Reuters)

The Chicago Business Barometer, the Institute for Supply Management gauge of factory activity in the Midwest region rose to 57.6 in November, up from 50.6. The new reading beat the median forecast, which expected an increase to only 52.0.

Readings above 50 point to expansion, while those below indicate contraction. The latest Chicago Business Barometer this month is in comparison to the gauge being in contractionary territory in the same period last year.

Four (4) of the 5 components in the survey increased, though Employment is the one that fell.

“The November reading for the Business Barometer marked the sixth month of expansionary business activity in the US. Strength in orders, a recovery in oil prices and the stronger dollar have all impacted businesses with varying degrees,” said Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators. “Respondents to our survey also remain optimistic about business activity in 2017 although the new government’s policies and the Fed’s approach towards monetary tightening would impact the course of business activity over the next year.”

Meanwhile, the Inventories Indicator increased at their fastest pace since October 2015, moving back into expansion in November. However, it was the rise in New Orders that contributed the most to the overall increase, gaining 10.7 points to 63.2.

Further, the Production Index also regained nearly all of October’s decline, while Order Backlogs bounced out of contractionary territory, where it had been over the past three months. Supplier Deliveries rose, though at a much smaller rate.

Most respondents expected their business to grow less than 5% next year, but there was a significant percentage who said they were more optimistic and expected growth to be above 10%. Interest rates and the election outcome, the latter being President-elect Donald J. Trump defeating Hillary Clinton in an upset landslide, were reported by firm respondents to be the important factors that could impact future activity.

The Chicago Business Barometer, the Institute for

consumer-spending

A shopper organizes his cash before paying for merchandise at a Best Buy Co. store in Peoria, Illinois, U.S., on Friday, Nov. 23, 2012. (Photo: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg/Getty)

The Commerce Department said Wednesday consumer spending increased less than expected in October, while personal incomes rose more than expected. The median forecast on income called for an increase of 0.4%, while economists’ expectations on spending called for a gain of 0.5%.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased less than expected as households decided to boost savings to a seven-month high. Still, personal spending remained high enough not to significantly hinder economic growth in the fourth quarter. It increased 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in the month of September.

It was initiated reported to have increased 0.5%.

Wages and salaries ticked up 0.5% for a second straight month, though savings increased to $860.2 billion from $814.1 billion in September. That’s not strong, but it is the highest level since March of this year.

Meanwhile, inflation continued to increase steadily and slightly, as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% after a similar increase in September. In the 12 months through October the PCE price index rose 1.4%, marking the largest since October 2014 and following a 1.2% gain in September.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index gained 0.1% after rising by the same margin in September. That left the year-on-year increase in the core PCE at 1.7% in October. The core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation, rose by that same margin for 3 consecutive months and is still below its 2% target for rate hikes.

Nevertheless, despite inflation missing the mark the Fed could raise interest rates next month. Personal income rose 0.6% last month after gaining 0.4% in September.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday consumer

jobs-fair-line

Unemployment Americans stand on a job fair line. (Photo: Reuters)

The ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday show 216,000 people were added to private sector payrolls in November, topping the median forecast. The estimate was for 165,000, while payrolls for the month of October were revised lower by 28,000 to 119,000.

“For the month of November 2016 we saw very strong job growth that has almost doubled in gains over October 2016,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “This growth was seen in primarily consumer-driven industries like retail and, leisure and hospitality – across all company sizes. Overall, consumers are feeling confident and are driving the strong performance we currently see in the job market.”

While the report was taken as largely optimistic, as Mr. Yildirmaz noted most of the growth came from low-wage service-sector positions. Service-providing jobs represented 228,000 of total payrolls added in November, while goods-producing sectors lost 11,000. Natural Resources & Mining lost 4,000 and Manufacturing 10,000.

“Businesses hired aggressively in November and there is little evidence that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election dampened hiring,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said. “In addition, because of the tightening labor market, retailers may be accelerating seasonal hiring to secure an adequate workforce to meet holiday demand, although total expected seasonal hiring may be no higher than last year’s.”

The ADP National Employment Report is conducted by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

The ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday

Donald-Trump-Bobby-Knight-Indiana-Raly

Donald Trump was joined by former Indiana University coach Bobby Knight at a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday, April 27.

President-elect Donald J. Trump will travel to Indiana to announce a deal struck with Carrier to keep roughly 1,000 jobs in the United States. Though he hasn’t even taken office yet, the deal means the New York businessman delivered on another major campaign promise.

Carrier, which is owned by United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX), manufactures products offering high-tech heating, air-conditioning & refrigeration solutions for residential, commercial, retail, transport & foodservice. They announced in February that they planned to move a plant and more than a thousand jobs to Mexico.

President-elect Trump said he will be in Indiana on Thursday to make “a major announcement concerning Carrier A.C. staying in Indianapolis.”

This isn’t the first deal struck by President-elect Trump that marks an economic promise delivered. The soon-to-be Republican president made manufacturing and trade major campaign issues, highlighting the impact of globalization on the U.S. economy and the American worker.

Two weeks ago, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) also announced they would not move forward on plans to ship a manufacturing plant and those jobs to Mexico.

President-elect Donald J. Trump will travel to

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