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Elections

Sanders Campaign Calls for Recount in 12 Precincts after Recanvass Erases SDE Deficit

Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders reacts to the results of the Iowa Democratic Caucus.
Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders reacts to the results of the Iowa Democratic Caucus.

While 100% of precincts reported nearly two weeks ago, revisions to the Iowa Caucus results show Bernie Sanders now effectively tied with Pete Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents (S.D.E.s).

The Iowa Democratic Party released the results of its recanvass late Tuesday and the Sanders Campaign is calling for a recount in 12 precincts. Pete Buttigieg has 563.207 and Sanders has 563.127 out of 2,152 S.D.E.s counted.

That’s a margin of only 0.004 percentage points.

“While it is clear that Senator Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa by 6,000 votes, the recanvass process process reduced the state delegate equivalents deficit by 97%,” Sanders Campaign advisor Jeff Weaver said in a statement.

The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana declared victory on the night of the caucus debacle, though the state party hadn’t reported official numbers.

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) reported at the time, the declaration was premature and ignored gross inaccuracies and inconsistencies.

Big media largely reported margins reflecting candidate totals for S.D.E.s, which are derived from caucus vote tallies. Those tallies are supposed to determine the number of pledged delegates each candidate receives.

Election 2020: Live Iowa Caucus Results

Sanders received the most popular votes in both the initial caucus and realignment rounds. He led Buttigieg in both the first and second rounds by 24.7% to 21.3% and 26.5% to 25.1%, respectively.

While candidate now has roughly 563 S.D.E.s — representing 26.2% of the vote — Buttigieg received one more pledged delegate than Sanders.

“We now believe a recount will give Senator Sanders enough state delegate equivalents to put him over the top in that metric as well,” Mr. Weaver added.

The Sanders Campaign is calling for a

Economy

New Residential Construction Starts 2020 Strong Amid Historically High Builder Confidence

New residential construction statistics for January show housing starts and building permits both beat the high end of the forecast range. Both key housing market statistics were also revised higher for December, the U.S. Census Bureau and Housing and Urban Development reported jointly.

That strength reflects historically high builder confidence at the start of 2020, which continued into February after reaching those levels at the end of 2019.

New residential construction, hew homes, housing starts, building permits, depicted on blueprints. (Photo: AdobeStock)
New residential construction, hew homes, housing starts, building permits, depicted on blueprints. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,567,000. While that is 3.6% (±13.3%) below the upwardly revised December estimate of 1,626,000, it is 21.4% (±12.2%) above the January 2019 rate of 1,291,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,350,000 to a high of 1,480,000. The consensus forecast was 1,420,000. 

Single‐family housing starts came in at a rate of 1,010,000, which is 5.9% (±11.6%) below the revised December figure of 1,073,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 547,000.

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. That is 9.2% (±2.1%) above the upwardly revised December rate of 1,420,000 and 17.9% (±1.3%) above the January 2019 rate of 1,316,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,420,000 to a high of 1,470,000. The consensus forecast was 1,453,000.

Single‐family authorizations came in at a rate of 987,000, which is 6.4% (±2.5%) above the upwardly revised December figure of 928,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 522,000 in January.

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,280,000. This is 3.3% (±8.4%) below the revised December estimate of 1,323,000, but is 1.5% (±11.7%) above the January 2019 rate of 1,261,000.

There was no consensus forecast for housing completions.

Single‐family housing completions in January were at a rate of 877,000; this is 3.5% (±6.8%) below the revised December rate of 909,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 397,000.

New residential construction statistics show housing starts

Economy

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) finds builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 74 in January.

With the exception of December 2017, the index has remained at the highest levels since July 1999 over the last three months.

Methodology

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of “good,” “fair” or “poor” and the last on a scale of “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low”. An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(good – poor + 100)/2” or, for Traffic, “(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2”.  

Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months.

The HMI can range between 0 and 100.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Economy

Empire State Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace Since May 2019

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey more than tripled the consensus forecast in February, as the headline index rose 8 points to 12.9. The headline general business conditions index is at the highest level since May of last year.

Forecasts for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York regional manufacturing survey ranged from a low of 1.2 to a high of 5.1. The consensus forecast was only 4.0.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Empire State manufacturing firms said conditions improved over the month, while 21% said conditions had worsened.

The new orders index jumped 16 points to 22.1, the highest level in more than a year. That’s an indication that orders rose significantly.

The shipments index rose to 18.9, delivery times were longer and inventory more abundant.

More Economic News

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey more than

Elections

Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor and 2020 Democratic candidate, campaigns ahead of Super Tuesday. (Photo: YouTube Screenshot)
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor and 2020 Democratic candidate, campaigns ahead of Super Tuesday. (Photo: YouTube Screenshot)

(Las Vegas) — Michael Bloomberg has qualified for the Democratic debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday, marking the former New York mayor’s first appearance on stage. The billionaire met the qualification criteria only after the Democratic National Committee (DNC) dropped the donor threshold earlier in February.

A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist national survey released on Tuesday finds the former New York mayor in second place at 19%. It is the fourth national poll in which he is at or above 10% nationally.

“The opportunity to discuss his workable and achievable plans for the challenges facing this country is an important part of the campaign process,” Bloomberg campaign manager Kevin Sheekey said in a statement.

Speaking of process, Bloomberg isn’t even on the ballot in Nevada. As with Iowa and New Hampshire, he skipped early voting states and is pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Super Tuesday.

Frontrunner and socialist Bernie Sanders now appears to hold a pretty solid lead in The Silver State. Sanders was also ahead in the aforementioned national poll with 31%.

Joe Biden came in at 15%; Elizabeth Warren at 12%; Amy Klobuchar at 9%; and, Pete Buttigieg at 8%.

The frontrunner and four other rivals have criticized Bloomberg for skipping early states, avoiding media appearances and having to answer tough questions while blanketing the airwaves with hundreds of millions of dollars in advertisements.

Michael Bloomberg has qualified for the Democratic

Elections

Bernie Sanders might hold a larger lead in the Nevada Democratic Caucus than is commonly anticipated, according to modeling and recent polling.

Nevada will be the first contest with a large share of nonwhite participants, representing roughly 4 in 10 in 2016. But it was the socialist senator from Vermont who performed the strongest among minorities in the previous two contests in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire.

In the Hawkeye State, the satellite caucuses the campaign pushed for after his close loss to Hillary Clinton, turned out younger, nonwhite voters who overwhelmingly supported Sanders.

Sanders nearly scored an upset against Clinton in Nevada. The latter ultimately won 52.64% to 47.29%.

As of Monday morning, the Turnout Probability Model at People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) gave Sanders a lead ceiling of 13 points using those results and the Las Vegas Review-Journal Poll. The floor was just below 8 points.

Now, a new poll conducted by the liberal firm Data for Progress gives Bernie Sanders a 19-point in Nevada. He leads the crowded field with 35% of likely caucus-goers, followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden at 16%, 15% and 14%, respectively.

That margin exceeds the high-end of the model. However, it also pegs Hispanic support for Sanders at 66%, far higher than the previous two contests.

The Silver State is the first with a large percentage of Hispanics in the electorate. According to entrance polls, Hispanic caucus-goers on the Democratic side accounted for roughly 20%.

Bernie Sanders might hold a larger lead

Polls

Sanders Nearly Upset Clinton in The Silver State 4 Years Ago. Now, He Returns the Frontrunner

Senator Bernie Sanders speaks to supporters ahead of the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucus.

Las Vegas, Nevada: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders holds a lead in the first Nevada Democratic Caucus poll conducted since mid-January. The Las Vegas Review-Journal Poll conducted by WPA Intelligence finds Bernie Sanders leading Joe Biden 25% to 18%.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is in third with 13%, Tom Steyer is at 11%, Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., each have 10% support.

The self-described “Democratic Socialist”—which to be clear, is not an economic definition—is coming off a declared victory in Iowa and outright win in New Hampshire.

The results in Iowa were riddled with inaccuracies and inconsistencies. People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) found no less than 15 precincts in which Sanders won the popular vote in both rounds, but was not allocated the proper number of State Delegate Equivalents (S.D.E.s).

Currently, Buttigieg leads Sanders in Iowa by just two S.D.E.s.

Of the 14 polls conducted of the Nevada Democratic Caucus on February 22, this is only the second in which Sanders led. Biden held the lead in 11 polls and the two candidates tied in one.

But the former Vice President has cratered since his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. For now, his support in Nevada does appear to show signs of having a floor in the high teens, though there’s just not enough data to know whether it’ll hold.

Nevada will be the first contest with a large share of nonwhite participants, representing roughly 4 in 10 in 2016. Sanders nearly scored an upset against Hillary Clinton, who ultimately won 52.64% to 47.29%.

The Silver State is the first with a large percentage of Hispanics in the electorate. According to entrance polls, Hispanic caucus-goers on the Democratic side accounted for roughly 20%.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders actually performed the strongest among nonwhite voters, particularly in the satellite caucus sites.

Worth noting, South Carolina will be the first with a significant percentage of Black voters. Black voters make up roughly two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State.

That percentage was 13% in Nevada in 2016.

Bernie Sanders holds a 7-point lead in

Politics

Disgraced Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe Will Skate

FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe pauses while testifying before a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in Washington, U.S., June 7, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe pauses while testifying before a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in Washington, U.S., June 7, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The Justice Department (DOJ) declined to prosecute disgraced former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe, People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) confirmed on Friday.

Michael Bromwich, defense attorney for McCabe, received a letter from DOJ official J.P. Cooney stating the investigation is now “closed.”

“We write to inform you that, after careful consideration, the Government has decided not to pursue criminal charges against your client, Andrew G. McCabe,’” he wrote. “Based on the totality of the circumstances and all of the information known to the Government at this time, we consider the matter closed.”

The DOJ Office of Inspector General (OIG) concluded in April 2018 that McCabe lied multiple times, including under Oath, and leaked in “a manner designed to advance his personal interests.”

The probe was opened after the DOJ Inspection Division (INSD) referred it to Inspector General Michael Horowitz to determine whether information published by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an article on October 30, 2016, was an unauthorized leak. And if so, who was the source of the leak.

He was removed from his post over misconduct and apparent corruption, but had been trying to ride out the scandals currently at the center of the FBI and DOJ. Then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired him just days before his retirement was set to take effect.

President Donald Trump called it a “great day” for the FBI and a “great day for Democracy.”

Inspector General Michael Horowitz sent a criminal referral for McCabe to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C. only a few days after the “lack of candor” conclusion.

The Justice Department (DOJ) declined to prosecute

Economy

The advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for January was $529.8 billion, an increase of 0.3% (±0.4%) from December, and 4.4% (±0.7%) year-over-year.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.3% to a high of 0.5%. The consensus forecast was 0.3%.

Total sales for the period from November 2019 through January 2020 were up 4.4% (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2019 to December 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.3% (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.2% (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.1% (±0.4%) from December 2019, and 4.0% (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 10.4% (±1.2%) from January 2019, while nonstore retailers were up 8.4% (±1.4%) from last year.

The advance estimates of U.S. retail sales

Economy

Jobless Claims, Otherwise Known as the Firing Rate, Thus Far Posted Positive Levels in 2020

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ending February 8, beating the consensus forecast. The previous week’s 202,000 level was revised higher by just 1,000 to 203,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 210,000 to a high of 214,000. The consensus forecast was 211,000.

The 4-week moving average was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week’s slightly higher revised average. Last week was revised up by just 250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending February 1.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 1 was 1,698,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 8,000 from 1,751,000 to 1,759,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,726,750, a decrease of 17,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,000 from 1,742,250 to 1,744,250.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending January 25.

State Jobless Claims Data

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending January 25 were in Alaska (3.1), Puerto Rico (2.8), New Jersey (2.7), Connecticut (2.5), Montana (2.5), West Virginia (2.5), Illinois (2.4), California (2.3), Pennsylvania (2.3), and Rhode Island (2.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 1 were in Pennsylvania (+2,534), New York (+1,523), Texas (+748), Oregon (+396), and Arizona (+332), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,138), Washington (-1,453), New Jersey (-1,021), Michigan (-809), and Ohio (-757).

Initial jobless claims came in at a

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